As of the end of December 2025, the U.S. economic outlook is mixed but remains broadly stable. Growth indicators have softened, but underlying activity has shown resilience amid ongoing macro pressures, including slowing labor momentum and uneven consumer demand.

In December, global equity markets displayed a coordinated year-end rally, driven by the finalization of central bank pivots and "window dressing" by institutional investors. Unlike the divergence seen in November, developed markets largely moved in tandem, buoyed by liquidity injections and clarity in 2026 monetary policy paths.

Global fixed income markets shifted decisively in December, driven by the synchronized dovish pivot of Western central banks. The dominant theme was the "bull steepening" of yield curves in developed markets—a scenario in which short-term interest rates fall faster than long-term rates, steepening the yield curve.

In November, global equity performance diverged across developed markets, driven by varying domestic macroeconomic conditions and central bank policies. 

In November, global fixed-income markets saw modest gains, with bond prices generally rising and yields falling in response to continued central bank rate cuts. For instance, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index gained 0.6% as the 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.16% to 4.11%.

As of December 1, 2025, the U.S. economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with a "soft landing" viewed as the most probable scenario. The economy is demonstrating resilience despite headwinds like higher tariffs and a record-long government shutdown in the fall, which slightly dampened Q4 growth estimates.

In October, global bond markets experienced modest yield declines, though total returns were uneven across regions. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index fell roughly 0.3% as elevated global issuance and stretched valuations weighed on returns.

Global equity markets in October reflected a mix of optimism and caution. Strong corporate earnings, particularly in the technology sector, and expectations of monetary easing improved investor sentiment. Equity funds experienced significant inflows in early October, the highest in nearly a year, as weaker U.S. inflation and a disappointing jobs report raised hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

November was a telling month. For the bullish camp: the Federal Reserve cut rates in late October and reaffirmed its easing intentions, which helped risk assets; corporate earnings remained resilient across many sectors; and, despite uncertainty, the economy still showed durability.

Fixed income returns in September were driven by a potent intersection of monetary policy shifts, abundant supply, and evolving risk premiums across sectors. The net result was generally lower yields worldwide.

During September, global equity markets advanced on the back of dovish central bank shifts, resilient corporate earnings, and a rotation into regions beyond the U.S. In the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their strongest September gains in 15 years propelled by a fully priced-in 25 bp Fed cut and optimism for further easing.

September was an interesting month. Whether you were bullish or bearish, there was data to support your stance. For example, expectations of eventual Fed rate cuts, steadier corporate earnings, and resilient demand supported upside momentum.

August was shaped by two global forces: new U.S. tariffs and shifting investor flows. The tariff package altered trade expectations and corporate guidance across supply-chain-heavy sectors. Flows swung through the month—early equity outflows on tariff headlines, a mid-month rebound as softer U.S. data hinted that tightening cycles were near an end.

In August, sector narratives were shaped by tariffs, macroeconomic indicators, earnings revisions, and interest rate developments. Overall, the tariff landscape tightened as several actions taken earlier in the summer resulted in a higher effective tariff burden by early August.

July was a telling month for global investors, as regional divergences in central bank policy and underlying economic momentum became increasingly impactful on relative currency moves. The U.S. dollar reached its trough on July 1, and the subsequent rally into the end of the month reduced international equity returns (in U.S. dollar terms).

July began with the index reaching record highs, bolstered by strong earnings expectations and optimism surrounding trade negotiations. However, caution emerged as market breadth and participation indicators diverged from price gains, hinting at the potential for increased volatility.

Global equities performed well in June, driven by a confluence of dovish central bank policies, divergent economic releases, and gyrating trade dynamics in the U.S., China, the Eurozone, Canada, Japan, and the Pacific region.

In June, the U.S. fixed income market navigated a complex landscape shaped by Treasury auctions, Federal Reserve commentary, and mixed inflation signals. Treasury yields experienced volatility but trended downward, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.235% on June 30, after peaking at 4.51% earlier in the month.