The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model increased to 77.27% from 66.18% last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

We had seemingly moved past other issues, but renewed geopolitical tensions have led to a sudden increase in price volatility. Since the only constant is change, a dynamic landscape will continue to produce price volatility, up and down.  

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 68.18%, the same level as last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

Many domestic equity market indices and the NYSE all issues Advance-Decline Line (A/D Line) had been moving sideways. That is no longer the case as the lateral pattern resolved higher—bullish and supportive of a stair-step move higher.

Join Art Huprich, CMT, on Wednesday, June 25, 2025, at 4:00 PM EST, for the monthly Day Hagan Technical Analysis. Art will be discussing the current technical condition of the equity markets (domestic, international, and emerging) based on supply (selling pressure) and demand (buying interest) analysis.

The Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

After such a big rebound, don’t be surprised if the price pattern—a period of digestion, short-lived rallies, and short-lived declines (versus sustained buying and selling)—continues, followed by another, potentially strong, rally.

The Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

Fixed income markets exhibited varied performance in May, driven by divergent macroeconomic factors, dashed expectations of more dovish Federal Reserve policy, and sector-specific dynamics. Performance ranged from weakness in U.S. sovereigns to outperformance in emerging market bonds.

During May, global equity markets exhibited mixed results across key regions. These shifts were largely influenced by a weakening U.S. dollar, changes in central bank policies, and ongoing geopolitical developments. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 8.13% year-to-date.

In May, the S&P 500 experienced a remarkable surge of 6.15%, marking its best performance for the month since 1990. This rally was driven by a combination of strong corporate earnings, declining inflation, easing trade tensions, and robust economic indicators.

Equity markets don’t usually enjoy drama, especially now with all the underlying crosscurrents and headline risk. Case in point: Last week’s sell-off and yesterday’s rally. Respect the recent bullish tape action but be aware of ongoing crosscurrents and headline risks.

The Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model recommends that investors maintain their equity benchmark exposure.

Join Art Huprich, CMT, for the May 2025 Day Hagan Technical Analysis Webinar Replay. Explore S&P 500 trends, breadth thrusts, market sentiment, and global equity insights. Learn smart sector strategies and risk management to navigate volatility and macro risks. Ideal for financial advisors seeking disciplined, data-driven investing approaches.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 77.27% from 72.73% last week. The model recommends that investors maintain their equity benchmark exposure.

S&P 500, NDX, and DJIA Advance-Decline Lines hit new highs (bullish) before Monday’s moonshot.  The NYSE A/D Line (all issues only) fractionally did so yesterday. Equities remain emotionally driven and highly subject to news. Sentiment isn’t 100% complacent but is getting close.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 72.73% from 70.83% last week. The model recommends that investors maintain their equity benchmark exposure.

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

Given the massive swings in the market last month, it may surprise you to learn that the S&P 500 was down only -0.68% for the month. Perhaps more surprising is that the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.85%. Internationally, Japan, Germany, and Canada were also up (0.37%, 2.17%, and 0.15%, respectively). Fixed income also increased, with the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bonds Total Return up 0.42%.