After such a big rebound, don’t be surprised if the price pattern—a period of digestion, short-lived rallies, and short-lived declines (versus sustained buying and selling)—continues, followed by another, potentially strong, rally.

The Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

Fixed income markets exhibited varied performance in May, driven by divergent macroeconomic factors, dashed expectations of more dovish Federal Reserve policy, and sector-specific dynamics. Performance ranged from weakness in U.S. sovereigns to outperformance in emerging market bonds.

During May, global equity markets exhibited mixed results across key regions. These shifts were largely influenced by a weakening U.S. dollar, changes in central bank policies, and ongoing geopolitical developments. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 8.13% year-to-date.

In May, the S&P 500 experienced a remarkable surge of 6.15%, marking its best performance for the month since 1990. This rally was driven by a combination of strong corporate earnings, declining inflation, easing trade tensions, and robust economic indicators.

Equity markets don’t usually enjoy drama, especially now with all the underlying crosscurrents and headline risk. Case in point: Last week’s sell-off and yesterday’s rally. Respect the recent bullish tape action but be aware of ongoing crosscurrents and headline risks.

The Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model recommends that investors maintain their equity benchmark exposure.

Join Art Huprich, CMT, for the May 2025 Day Hagan Technical Analysis Webinar Replay. Explore S&P 500 trends, breadth thrusts, market sentiment, and global equity insights. Learn smart sector strategies and risk management to navigate volatility and macro risks. Ideal for financial advisors seeking disciplined, data-driven investing approaches.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 77.27% from 72.73% last week. The model recommends that investors maintain their equity benchmark exposure.

S&P 500, NDX, and DJIA Advance-Decline Lines hit new highs (bullish) before Monday’s moonshot.  The NYSE A/D Line (all issues only) fractionally did so yesterday. Equities remain emotionally driven and highly subject to news. Sentiment isn’t 100% complacent but is getting close.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 72.73% from 70.83% last week. The model recommends that investors maintain their equity benchmark exposure.

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

Given the massive swings in the market last month, it may surprise you to learn that the S&P 500 was down only -0.68% for the month. Perhaps more surprising is that the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.85%. Internationally, Japan, Germany, and Canada were also up (0.37%, 2.17%, and 0.15%, respectively). Fixed income also increased, with the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bonds Total Return up 0.42%.

In last month’s letter, we concluded, “In summary, the market’s trajectory remains largely influenced by trade tensions, mixed economic indicators, and shifting investor sentiment. While some analysts express optimism regarding potential economic boosts from deregulation and tax policies, the current climate of uncertainty poses significant risks for market stability and growth.”

In April, the U.S. and global fixed income markets experienced a complex interplay that shaped investor sentiment and asset performance. On the positive side, a noticeable easing in tariff-related tensions and the improvement of trade rhetoric marked a significant shift in the U.S. trade landscape.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 70.83% from 60.0% last week. The model recommends that investors maintain their equity benchmark exposure.

Despite a headline-driven environment, the fear factor took a breather and the bulls took charge. Now what? Consolidation? Pullback? More upside? With four recent breadth thrusts, I’m happy with any of these. Regardless, with overhead resistance, more work must be done.

The Catastrophic Stop Model increased to 60.0%, up from 47.9% last week. The model recommends that investors maintain their benchmark exposure.

Watch Art Huprich, CMT, break down S&P 500 trends, market volatility, current market events, U.S. dollar, and more, in this April 23, 2025, webinar replay. Financial advisors are encouraged to watch for the latest market technical analysis, smart sector strategies, and risk management insights.

The Catastrophic Stop model level remains at 47.9%, the same as last week. The model recommends that investors maintain their benchmark exposure.