A primary uptrend for the domestic Large Cap universe continues. It is, however, important to identify indicators that will help discern when the weight of the evidence suggests otherwise.

I would classify last week’s intraday low and rising 200-DMA as important near-term support levels. If the recent dip is over, equity market indices should stay above these levels. If these near-term support levels are violated...

Select short-term underlying conditions suggest the probabilities favor a wide-swinging trading range, dictated by the resistance and support levels listed.     

The seasonal calendar and waning momentum suggest a pause/pullback. But the A/D Line & NYSE Up minus Down volume conditions suggest the odds favor new domestic equity market highs in the coming weeks/months.

Despite “easing” on the part of domestic and global Central Banks, the odds appear to favor a mean reversion move higher by domestic interest rates.

In a business that seeks certainties, our more prudent weight-of-the-evidence approach deals in probabilities.

A decisive violation of support at 2822 by the S&P 500 increases the odds of further downside probing - the next area of significant support would then be between 2750 and 2728.

S&P 500: Minor divergences exist. If they can be shrugged off it would be a sign of underlying strength. In the meantime, please use the short-term support levels accordingly: 2996 (rising 20-DMA), 2973, and in and around 2950.

While the relative performance of the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index remains a disappointment, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index continues to hold above its recent breakout range—bullish!

In light of what may be a lighter-than-average trading week, here are a few “charts of interest.”