The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

Given the massive swings in the market last month, it may surprise you to learn that the S&P 500 was down only -0.68% for the month. Perhaps more surprising is that the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.85%. Internationally, Japan, Germany, and Canada were also up (0.37%, 2.17%, and 0.15%, respectively). Fixed income also increased, with the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bonds Total Return up 0.42%.

In last month’s letter, we concluded, “In summary, the market’s trajectory remains largely influenced by trade tensions, mixed economic indicators, and shifting investor sentiment. While some analysts express optimism regarding potential economic boosts from deregulation and tax policies, the current climate of uncertainty poses significant risks for market stability and growth.”

In April, the U.S. and global fixed income markets experienced a complex interplay that shaped investor sentiment and asset performance. On the positive side, a noticeable easing in tariff-related tensions and the improvement of trade rhetoric marked a significant shift in the U.S. trade landscape.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 70.83% from 60.0% last week. The model recommends that investors maintain their equity benchmark exposure.

Despite a headline-driven environment, the fear factor took a breather and the bulls took charge. Now what? Consolidation? Pullback? More upside? With four recent breadth thrusts, I’m happy with any of these. Regardless, with overhead resistance, more work must be done.

The Catastrophic Stop Model increased to 60.0%, up from 47.9% last week. The model recommends that investors maintain their benchmark exposure.

Watch Art Huprich, CMT, break down S&P 500 trends, market volatility, current market events, U.S. dollar, and more, in this April 23, 2025, webinar replay. Financial advisors are encouraged to watch for the latest market technical analysis, smart sector strategies, and risk management insights.

The Catastrophic Stop model level remains at 47.9%, the same as last week. The model recommends that investors maintain their benchmark exposure.

Join us for an informative webinar where we explore smart investing strategies, balanced portfolios, and risk management techniques to enhance your portfolio process. Whether you're a seasoned financial advisor or an individual investor, this webinar will provide valuable insights and practical knowledge to optimize your investment approach.

Join Art Huprich, CMT, on Tuesday, May 20, 2025, at 4:00 PM EST, for the monthly Day Hagan Technical Analysis. Art will be discussing the current technical condition of the equity markets (domestic, international, and emerging) based on supply (selling pressure) and demand (buying interest) analysis.

Following one of the biggest short squeezes in recent memory (4.9.25) and within the confines of the S&P 500’s pattern of lower price peaks and lower price troughs, I expect upside and downside volatility to continue despite the recent tariff news. What are we now watching?

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 47.9% from 40.7% last week due to one of the model’s Trend Factors shifting positive. Supporting the Trend Factor are measures tracking Oversold Mean Reversion (showing that the markets reached extreme oversold levels and selling exhaustion), Sentiment (pessimism reached extreme levels similar to 2002, 2009, and 2020).

The Catastrophic Stop model level is 40.7%, down from 51.4% last week and on the cusp of a sell signal. The model’s decline was due to volume-adjusted demand falling below volume-adjusted supply for the first time since September 2023. On balance, the model’s technical indicators are bearish, while the external indicators are low-neutral.

After the S&P 500 (SPX) broke the twin support lows of 5500 to 5488 (discussed last week), a cascade of selling quickly followed. The associated selling pressure exceeded early March levels. Thus, the Low-Rally Retest bottoming sequence coupled with breadth thrusts begins anew.  

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

In March, policymakers acknowledged increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook but maintained an expectation of a 50-basis-point reduction in interest rates for the year, consistent with their December forecast. GDP growth projections were revised downward from 2.1% to 1.7% for 2025, while 2026 and 2027 forecasts were adjusted to 1.8% (from 2%) and 1.8% (from 1.9%), respectively.

Global stock markets experienced a volatile month, shaped by a mix of macroeconomic shifts, policy uncertainties, and key economic releases. Below, we explore the factors, issues, and data points that influenced the U.S., European, Emerging Market, Japanese, Canadian, and Pacific ex-Japan stock markets last month.

The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility last month, primarily due to trade policy uncertainty and mixed economic signals. The re-elected Trump administration’s aggressive tariff proposals, including potential hikes on imports from key trading partners such as China, Mexico, and Canada, have eroded investor confidence. Concerns about an impending trade war have particularly affected export-heavy sectors, such as manufacturing and technology, contributing to a decline of over 4% in the S&P 500 year-to-date.

Bitcoin, the poster child for risk-on versus risk-off, continues to stress risk-off. Let’s revisit the S&P 500’s short-term Low-Rally-Retest bottoming sequence, including what could occur going forward and what we do and don’t want to see.