The DH Catastrophic Stop model declined to 72.7% from 77.27% last week. The decline stemmed from our breadth thrust composite turning neutral, as the initial bullish signal’s impact was programmed to diminish over time, consistent with historical patterns.  The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

July was a telling month for global investors, as regional divergences in central bank policy and underlying economic momentum became increasingly impactful on relative currency moves. The U.S. dollar reached its trough on July 1, and the subsequent rally into the end of the month reduced international equity returns (in U.S. dollar terms).

July began with the index reaching record highs, bolstered by strong earnings expectations and optimism surrounding trade negotiations. However, caution emerged as market breadth and participation indicators diverged from price gains, hinting at the potential for increased volatility.

Watch the July 2025 Day Hagan Technical Analysis Webinar Replay as Art Huprich, CMT, delves into ongoing market trends, sentiment extremes, non-confirmations, and sector rotations amid overbought conditions and seasonal headwinds. Discover insights on global participation, commodities outlook, and Smart Sector.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model level is 77.27% as of today’s open, unchanged from last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The S&P 500 closed over 6,300, yet New Highs contracted and A/D Lines are diverging—a condition, not a sell signal. Index-wise, a similar splintering exists. Until there is some resolve, define risk tolerance and implement an investment strategy with risk management parameters.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model level is 77.27% as of today’s open, unchanged from last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The market remains overbought, with sentiment still relatively complacent, as I noted last week. When combined with proximity to resistance, the ingredients are still in place for a pause/pullback.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains unchanged at 77.27% from last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

Advance-Decline Lines are supportive. New Highs recently improved. Yet sentiment is ebullient (the Bulls are all in the pool—a condition, not yet a signal). Equity market proxies are short-term overbought (a condition), and some equity proxies are at or near resistance lines.

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

Global equities performed well in June, driven by a confluence of dovish central bank policies, divergent economic releases, and gyrating trade dynamics in the U.S., China, the Eurozone, Canada, Japan, and the Pacific region.

In June, the U.S. fixed income market navigated a complex landscape shaped by Treasury auctions, Federal Reserve commentary, and mixed inflation signals. Treasury yields experienced volatility but trended downward, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.235% on June 30, after peaking at 4.51% earlier in the month.

In June, the S&P 500 saw a significant increase of about 4.96%, marking its third-consecutive monthly gain after a challenging spring of policy shocks in April. This surge was fueled by supportive corporate earnings, decreasing volatility, and a normalization of trade tensions. Year-to-date, the index had risen approximately 5.5%, with a 12-month increase of more than 13.6%.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

When America won its independence, it was no longer constrained by British rule. Similarly, much of Wall Street is not constrained by overhanging selling pressure, as the “Index Movers” led several domestic equity market indices and proxies to new all-time highs.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

In this session, Art Huprich, CMT, analyzed S&P 500 momentum, bearish-to-bullish chart patterns, and sentiment indicators, highlighting opportunities in equities and commodities. He shared Day Hagan’s Smart Sector strategies to manage risk and capitalize on market trends, helping advisors navigate volatile markets.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model increased to 77.27% from 66.18% last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

We had seemingly moved past other issues, but renewed geopolitical tensions have led to a sudden increase in price volatility. Since the only constant is change, a dynamic landscape will continue to produce price volatility, up and down.