The market remains overbought, with sentiment still relatively complacent, as I noted last week. When combined with proximity to resistance, the ingredients are still in place for a pause/pullback.

Advance-Decline Lines are supportive. New Highs recently improved. Yet sentiment is ebullient (the Bulls are all in the pool—a condition, not yet a signal). Equity market proxies are short-term overbought (a condition), and some equity proxies are at or near resistance lines.

Join us for an informative webinar where we explore smart investing strategies, balanced portfolios, and risk management techniques to enhance your portfolio process. Whether you're a seasoned financial advisor or an individual investor, this webinar will provide valuable insights and practical knowledge to optimize your investment approach.

Join Art Huprich, CMT, on Wednesday, July 30, 2025, at 4:00 PM ET, for the monthly Day Hagan Technical Analysis. Art will be discussing the current technical condition of the equity markets (domestic, international, and emerging) based on supply (selling pressure) and demand (buying interest) analysis.

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

Global equities performed well in June, driven by a confluence of dovish central bank policies, divergent economic releases, and gyrating trade dynamics in the U.S., China, the Eurozone, Canada, Japan, and the Pacific region.

In June, the U.S. fixed income market navigated a complex landscape shaped by Treasury auctions, Federal Reserve commentary, and mixed inflation signals. Treasury yields experienced volatility but trended downward, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.235% on June 30, after peaking at 4.51% earlier in the month.

In June, the S&P 500 saw a significant increase of about 4.96%, marking its third-consecutive monthly gain after a challenging spring of policy shocks in April. This surge was fueled by supportive corporate earnings, decreasing volatility, and a normalization of trade tensions. Year-to-date, the index had risen approximately 5.5%, with a 12-month increase of more than 13.6%.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

When America won its independence, it was no longer constrained by British rule. Similarly, much of Wall Street is not constrained by overhanging selling pressure, as the “Index Movers” led several domestic equity market indices and proxies to new all-time highs.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

In this session, Art Huprich, CMT, analyzed S&P 500 momentum, bearish-to-bullish chart patterns, and sentiment indicators, highlighting opportunities in equities and commodities. He shared Day Hagan’s Smart Sector strategies to manage risk and capitalize on market trends, helping advisors navigate volatile markets.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model increased to 77.27% from 66.18% last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

We had seemingly moved past other issues, but renewed geopolitical tensions have led to a sudden increase in price volatility. Since the only constant is change, a dynamic landscape will continue to produce price volatility, up and down.  

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 68.18%, the same level as last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

Many domestic equity market indices and the NYSE all issues Advance-Decline Line (A/D Line) had been moving sideways. That is no longer the case as the lateral pattern resolved higher—bullish and supportive of a stair-step move higher.

The Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

After such a big rebound, don’t be surprised if the price pattern—a period of digestion, short-lived rallies, and short-lived declines (versus sustained buying and selling)—continues, followed by another, potentially strong, rally.

The Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.