“Earnings roulette season,” and all that it brings, will be quickly upon us. This suggests an objective and unemotional investment process would be prudent.
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Above is the replay of the April 11, 2018 Day Hagan Global Macroeconomic Update Webinar.
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Sharing my thoughts on the markets as I checked off another item on my bucket list.
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The Day Hagan Tactical Allocation strategy uses a quantitative, model-based, weight-of-the-evidence approach to determine the levels of investment and, by proxy, the levels of risk that should be taken at any given time. Currently, the overall equity vs. bond model indicates that risks have increased for stocks and diminished slightly for bonds. This month’s allocation changes, therefore, represent another reduction in portfolio risk.
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We are excited about how the Day Hagan Logix Tactical Dividend strategy is positioned moving into spring and summer and believe patience in our underlying, undervalued holdings will be rewarded
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Please join us Wednesday, April 11, 2018, at 4:15 PM EST, for the monthly Day Hagan Global Macroeconomic webinar. Members of the Day Hagan Investment Committee will be discussing their outlook for the global financial markets.
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In response to media commentary relative to an impending equity market “crash” similar to 1987, here are some technical observations that don’t support that theory.
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A prolonged trading range period may take trend followers by surprise and leave them disappointed.
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Based on the March investment model updates and corresponding position changes, the Day Hagan Tactical Allocation strategy (DHTA) is now 66.7 percent invested in equity and equity alternatives (a decrease of 11 percent from last month), 23.3 percent in fixed income (an increase of 11 percent) and 11.0 percent in cash and cash alternatives (no change).
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Please join us Wednesday, March 14, 2018, at 4:15 PM EST, for the monthly Day Hagan Global Macroeconomic webinar. Members of the Day Hagan Investment Committee will be discussing their outlook for the global financial markets.
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For the trading week prior to the February 9th low, the Day Hagan Logix strategy was effective in mitigating downside, outperforming its benchmark Russell 1000 Value benchmark (and the S&P 500) by over 300 basis points.
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While a less pressure-ridden retest did occur—I mistakenly thought it took place too close to the initial low—it is important to focus on the D.J. Utility Average and the utility complex going forward.
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An alternative scenario to my “retest sequence” would be the occurrence of a broad consolidation period, which lasts for a period of months, not weeks—in other words, a time correction.
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While there was a “Low, Rally, Retest” sequence last week, which is encouraging, it occurred over a matter of a few days. However, I think the odds favor this bottoming pattern develops over a longer time period.
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For me to feel confident that a meaningful low has been recorded, strong internal readings must be consistently present during a rally attempt. Ideally, bearish sentiment also shows up.
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Downside volatility has increased in early 2018. While statistically measured “oversold/fear” levels are close at hand, it is important to distinguish between an equity market “Low” and an equity market “Bottom.”
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About that decline. Equity markets around the world are under pressure, with many experiencing declines of 5% or more over the past two trading sessions.
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Day Hagan Logix continues to capture attractive market upside despite maintaining, at present, a meaningful defensive cash position based on our disciplined risk management process. Over the last twelve months, Day Hagan Logix has captured 101%* of the Russell 1000 Value Index’s return (gross of fees).
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Going back to 1950, February has historically been a volatile month. Here are a few observations I deem currently relevant.
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Tactical support for the S&P 500 exists around 2800, and more important short-term support exists at 2768. Also, when an index breaks out of a long base, it usually implies a period of renewed underlying buying interest.
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