As of the end of December 2025, the U.S. economic outlook is mixed but remains broadly stable. Growth indicators have softened, but underlying activity has shown resilience amid ongoing macro pressures, including slowing labor momentum and uneven consumer demand.

In December, global equity markets displayed a coordinated year-end rally, driven by the finalization of central bank pivots and "window dressing" by institutional investors. Unlike the divergence seen in November, developed markets largely moved in tandem, buoyed by liquidity injections and clarity in 2026 monetary policy paths.

Global fixed income markets shifted decisively in December, driven by the synchronized dovish pivot of Western central banks. The dominant theme was the "bull steepening" of yield curves in developed markets—a scenario in which short-term interest rates fall faster than long-term rates, steepening the yield curve.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 59.09%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model declined to 59.09% from 68.18% last week. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains steady at 68.18%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

In November, global equity performance diverged across developed markets, driven by varying domestic macroeconomic conditions and central bank policies. 

In November, global fixed-income markets saw modest gains, with bond prices generally rising and yields falling in response to continued central bank rate cuts. For instance, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index gained 0.6% as the 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.16% to 4.11%.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains steady at 68.18%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

As of December 1, 2025, the U.S. economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with a "soft landing" viewed as the most probable scenario. The economy is demonstrating resilience despite headwinds like higher tariffs and a record-long government shutdown in the fall, which slightly dampened Q4 growth estimates.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains steady at 68.18%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies that deliver excess returns through strong economic profitability, solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading at considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

In October, global bond markets experienced modest yield declines, though total returns were uneven across regions. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index fell roughly 0.3% as elevated global issuance and stretched valuations weighed on returns.

Global equity markets in October reflected a mix of optimism and caution. Strong corporate earnings, particularly in the technology sector, and expectations of monetary easing improved investor sentiment. Equity funds experienced significant inflows in early October, the highest in nearly a year, as weaker U.S. inflation and a disappointing jobs report raised hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

November was a telling month. For the bullish camp: the Federal Reserve cut rates in late October and reaffirmed its easing intentions, which helped risk assets; corporate earnings remained resilient across many sectors; and, despite uncertainty, the economy still showed durability.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model closed at 50% on Friday. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure. The model uses a systematic, weight-of-the-evidence approach combining price, valuation, economic trends, monetary liquidity, and sentiment indicators to identify periods of heightened market risk.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model closed at 50% on Friday. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure. Several factors continue to underpin a constructive equity outlook.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model closed at 50% on Friday. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure. Several factors continue to underpin our constructive view on equities. Corporate earnings have remained robust, with results generally exceeding expectations and forward guidance holding up well.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model closed at 50% on Friday. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model closed at 50% on Friday. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.