
Day Hagan Research
Day Hagan’s Research is a resource for U.S. and global financial market research and portfolio insights to help fuel client relationships and grow your practice. Read market commentary and research to help you deliver on your clients’ financial goals.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Something New
We had seemingly moved past other issues, but renewed geopolitical tensions have led to a sudden increase in price volatility. Since the only constant is change, a dynamic landscape will continue to produce price volatility, up and down.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Swirl
Many domestic equity market indices and the NYSE all issues Advance-Decline Line (A/D Line) had been moving sideways. That is no longer the case as the lateral pattern resolved higher—bullish and supportive of a stair-step move higher.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Sheesh
After such a big rebound, don’t be surprised if the price pattern—a period of digestion, short-lived rallies, and short-lived declines (versus sustained buying and selling)—continues, followed by another, potentially strong, rally.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Drama Continues
Equity markets don’t usually enjoy drama, especially now with all the underlying crosscurrents and headline risk. Case in point: Last week’s sell-off and yesterday’s rally. Respect the recent bullish tape action but be aware of ongoing crosscurrents and headline risks.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Still Highly Emotional
S&P 500, NDX, and DJIA Advance-Decline Lines hit new highs (bullish) before Monday’s moonshot. The NYSE A/D Line (all issues only) fractionally did so yesterday. Equities remain emotionally driven and highly subject to news. Sentiment isn’t 100% complacent but is getting close.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Peak or Peek
Despite a headline-driven environment, the fear factor took a breather and the bulls took charge. Now what? Consolidation? Pullback? More upside? With four recent breadth thrusts, I’m happy with any of these. Regardless, with overhead resistance, more work must be done.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Helter-Skelter
Following one of the biggest short squeezes in recent memory (4.9.25) and within the confines of the S&P 500’s pattern of lower price peaks and lower price troughs, I expect upside and downside volatility to continue despite the recent tariff news. What are we now watching?
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Special Chart Update
After the S&P 500 (SPX) broke the twin support lows of 5500 to 5488 (discussed last week), a cascade of selling quickly followed. The associated selling pressure exceeded early March levels. Thus, the Low-Rally Retest bottoming sequence coupled with breadth thrusts begins anew.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Poster Child
Bitcoin, the poster child for risk-on versus risk-off, continues to stress risk-off. Let’s revisit the S&P 500’s short-term Low-Rally-Retest bottoming sequence, including what could occur going forward and what we do and don’t want to see.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Cardiac Arrest
Following the domestic equity market’s heart attack-inducing decline, it needs a slow, methodical rehab to repair the chart damage. Friday started the process, but more is needed.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Spring Ahead, Fall Back
Although we set our clocks ahead over the weekend, stock prices fell back as macro risk and political headline fatigue weighs heavily on Wall Street’s psyche. An oversold rally is due (Figure 1). If it doesn’t occur soon, it will be bearish.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Say What?
Many finally became aware of the unwinding speculative stock market activity in the Index Movers, Quantum stocks, crypto, IPO proxy, and penny stocks that had run up on above-average volume.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Asked and Answered
Last week, I stated that I’d like new highs to see what selling arises. I also said we would soon know if any topside breakouts were false and full of hot air. We immediately got an answer to both scenarios.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Bang, Zoom!
I want equity market proxies to break topside and see 1) what selling pressure arises, if any, 2) if internal measuring tools (Advance-Decline figures, New Highs, sector participation, equal versus cap weight, etc.) confirm or diverge (again), and 3) sentiment readings.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: A Broken Record
Last Friday, news of lower unemployment and rising hourly earnings heightened inflation expectations, while ongoing tariff concerns added to market volatility. As a result, equity market proxies pulled back, reflecting continued selling pressure around resistance levels.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Trump Being Trump: Trade Wars 2.0
Between early December 2024 and early 2025, we highlighted a negative Advance-Decline Line non-confirmation and expected price volatility to continue. We still feel the same. Equity market price volatility will continue deeper into Q1, at a minimum.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Resistance Prevails Again and Price Volatility Continues
Internal measuring tools have moved to be supportive, yet resistance stands, and a negative Advance-Decline Line condition remains. Meanwhile, the Catastrophic Stop Loss model and U.S. High Yield Index OAS-Credit Spreads support the S&P 500’s uptrend.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Back to Resistance Again
Stocks bounced sharply higher once support was tested and held, further supported by oversold conditions and relatively favorable inflation reports. Internal measuring tools moved sharply in the right direction. Broader participation and follow-through are now needed.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: “The Name’s Bond”
Worries over fiscal discipline, immigration policies, the recent strong employment report, and several other issues drove the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 4.80%. When the Fed started lowering interest rates on 9.18.24, the 10-year yield stood at 3.70%. Who’s missing what?
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Trump Bump Came and Went
The oft-discussed price volatility, in both directions, came to the forefront as 2024 ended and 2025 began. With the ongoing global and domestic political backdrop, “tariffs, taxes, inflation,” negative non-confirmations, and interest rates, the odds favor it continues.