
Day Hagan Research
Day Hagan’s Research is a resource for U.S. and global financial market research and portfolio insights to help fuel client relationships and grow your practice. Read market commentary and research to help you deliver on your clients’ financial goals.
Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 5, 2025
The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 70.83% from 60.0% last week. The model recommends that investors maintain their equity benchmark exposure.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Peak or Peek
Despite a headline-driven environment, the fear factor took a breather and the bulls took charge. Now what? Consolidation? Pullback? More upside? With four recent breadth thrusts, I’m happy with any of these. Regardless, with overhead resistance, more work must be done.
Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025
The Catastrophic Stop Model increased to 60.0%, up from 47.9% last week. The model recommends that investors maintain their benchmark exposure.
Day Hagan Technical Analysis with Art Huprich, CMT, Recorded April 23, 2025
Watch Art Huprich, CMT, break down S&P 500 trends, market volatility, current market events, U.S. dollar, and more, in this April 23, 2025, webinar replay. Financial advisors are encouraged to watch for the latest market technical analysis, smart sector strategies, and risk management insights.
Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025
The Catastrophic Stop model level remains at 47.9%, the same as last week. The model recommends that investors maintain their benchmark exposure.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Helter-Skelter
Following one of the biggest short squeezes in recent memory (4.9.25) and within the confines of the S&P 500’s pattern of lower price peaks and lower price troughs, I expect upside and downside volatility to continue despite the recent tariff news. What are we now watching?
Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 15, 2025
The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 47.9% from 40.7% last week due to one of the model’s Trend Factors shifting positive. Supporting the Trend Factor are measures tracking Oversold Mean Reversion (showing that the markets reached extreme oversold levels and selling exhaustion), Sentiment (pessimism reached extreme levels similar to 2002, 2009, and 2020).
Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 8, 2025
The Catastrophic Stop model level is 40.7%, down from 51.4% last week and on the cusp of a sell signal. The model’s decline was due to volume-adjusted demand falling below volume-adjusted supply for the first time since September 2023. On balance, the model’s technical indicators are bearish, while the external indicators are low-neutral.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Special Chart Update
After the S&P 500 (SPX) broke the twin support lows of 5500 to 5488 (discussed last week), a cascade of selling quickly followed. The associated selling pressure exceeded early March levels. Thus, the Low-Rally Retest bottoming sequence coupled with breadth thrusts begins anew.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Poster Child
Bitcoin, the poster child for risk-on versus risk-off, continues to stress risk-off. Let’s revisit the S&P 500’s short-term Low-Rally-Retest bottoming sequence, including what could occur going forward and what we do and don’t want to see.
Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 31, 2025
The Catastrophic Stop model level declined to 51.43% from 56.43% last week. The decline resulted from the “High Yield and Emerging Market Bond Factor” reversing back to neutral from bullish (reversal occurred March 26). Technical measures calling U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength, Short-term Trend, Intermediate-term Trend, and High Yield OAS spreads are bearish.
Day Hagan Technical Analysis with Art Huprich, CMT, Recorded March 25, 2025
Watch Art Huprich, CMT, break down S&P 500 trends, market corrections, and recession signals in this March 25, 2025, webinar replay. Financial advisors are encouraged to watch for the latest market technical analysis, smart sector strategies, and risk management insights —don’t miss out!
Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 25, 2025
The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 56.43% from 51.43% last week due to the “High Yield and Emerging Market Bond Factor” shifting from neutral to bullish. In other words, the fixed-income markets are holding up well. We’d also note that global equity breadth is constructive, and volume-adjusted demand continues to outpace supply.
Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 18, 2025
The Catastrophic Stop model declined to 51.43% from 63.57% last week. The model’s technical indicators are now low neutral on balance due to the intermediate-term trend factor turning negative, joining the short-term trend and stock/bond relative strength factors discussed last week. Neutral readings remain in place for our breadth thrust and oversold mean reversion factors.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Cardiac Arrest
Following the domestic equity market’s heart attack-inducing decline, it needs a slow, methodical rehab to repair the chart damage. Friday started the process, but more is needed.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Spring Ahead, Fall Back
Although we set our clocks ahead over the weekend, stock prices fell back as macro risk and political headline fatigue weighs heavily on Wall Street’s psyche. An oversold rally is due (Figure 1). If it doesn’t occur soon, it will be bearish.
Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025
The Catastrophic Stop model declined to 63.57% from 70.71% last week. The model’s technical indicators are now neutral on balance due to the short-term trend factor turning negative, joining the stock/bond relative strength factor. Neutral readings are in place for our breadth thrust and oversold mean reversion factors.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Say What?
Many finally became aware of the unwinding speculative stock market activity in the Index Movers, Quantum stocks, crypto, IPO proxy, and penny stocks that had run up on above-average volume.
Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 4, 2025
The Catastrophic Stop model declined to 70.7% from 72.9% last week due to a relative strength measure calling stocks versus bonds turning negative. The model’s internal indicators remain bullish, though less so with this week’s update, and the external indicators are neutral.
Day Hagan Tech Talk: Asked and Answered
Last week, I stated that I’d like new highs to see what selling arises. I also said we would soon know if any topside breakouts were false and full of hot air. We immediately got an answer to both scenarios.