The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model closed at 50% on Friday. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

Equity market proxies grind higher as stocks rotate up and down. While I incorrectly expected a pullback or consolidation, some Advance-Decline Lines did not confirm new highs. The NYSE All Issues A/D Line has diverged for weeks, and the NYSE Common Stock Only for nearly a month.

No change to our 30,000-foot view: Our models and indicators suggest an overall neutral outlook. Historically, equities have typically appreciated during periods of neutral market conditions. As a result, while we continue to anticipate a likelihood of short-term consolidation, we do not foresee a significant downturn on the near-term horizon.

Who knows better, Wall Street economists or the “collective we,” the stock market?

The DH Catastrophic Stop model level is 50%, indicating that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure. No change to our 30,000-foot view: Our models and indicators suggest an overall neutral outlook. Historically, equities have typically appreciated during periods of neutral market conditions.

Watch the September 2025 Day Hagan Technical Analysis Webinar Replay as Art Huprich, CMT, reviews supportive signals such as global participation, higher price peaks and troughs, sector rotation, and the Catastrophic Stop Loss model’s continued constructive stance. He also highlights headwinds, including A/D Line non-confirmations, overbought conditions, seasonal risks, and market sentiment extremes.

The DH Catastrophic Stop model level is 50%, indicating that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure. As we’ve noted over the past several weeks, our models and indicators suggest an overall neutral outlook.

Signs of near-term overbought conditions and slowing momentum are evident as investors await more clarity from the Federal Reserve. However, our longer-term models and indicators remain supportive.

The DH Catastrophic Stop model level is 50%, indicating that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure. Our models and indicators suggest an overall neutral outlook. Historically, equities have typically appreciated during such neutral periods, as indicated by our models.

While the equity market will always be dealing with near-term worries, the majority of our models and indicators remain supportive. This implies that the odds currently favor equities remaining stable or moving higher in Q4.

The DH Catastrophic Stop model level is 50%, indicating that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

Last week, I discussed short-term headwinds for equities, which are now evident in several factors: overbought conditions, fading systematic flows, all-in CTA positioning, corporate buybacks in a dry spell, and seasonal issues for equities and the Volatility Index (VIX).

The DH Catastrophic Stop model declined to 59.09% from 72.7% last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

Our perspective has remained relatively unchanged over the last three weeks: The excessive optimism noted four weeks ago has slightly moderated, and we have been anticipating a consolidation phase as sentiment and technical indicators trended toward more normalized levels.

Watch the August 2025 Day Hagan Technical Analysis Webinar Replay as Art Huprich, CMT® delves into current market trends, highlighting supportive factors like global participation and bullish thrusts while addressing headwinds such as seasonal volatility and non-confirmations.

The DH Catastrophic Stop model level is 50.0%, unchanged from last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure. Our perspective also remains largely unchanged from last week.

Small caps broke out and pulled back—false breakout? Maybe, though I believe a small-cap (and DJIA) breakout will eventually stick. Sector rotation (Health Care led last week)? Until we get an answer, bullish price trends are in control. For the Bears, it remains “show me.”  

The DH Catastrophic Stop model declined to 50.0% from 59.09% last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The S&P 500 cut through resistance like a hot knife through butter, closing at a new high. Index Movers and Small Caps participated. Yet, domestic A/D Lines recorded a second non-confirmation (Figure 1), and New High readings, though not a good timing tool, reflect a diverging backdrop.

Last week, Wall Street experienced a triple blow: a negative “Outside Reversal Day,” above-average volume “Exhaustion,” and hard downside selling. As a result, the Large Cap Growth indices registered a short-term price peak, finally establishing a level of resistance.