Day Hagan Tech Talk: Nothing’s Changed as The Beat Goes On
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Summary
While the equity market will always be dealing with near-term worries, the majority of our models and indicators remain supportive. This implies that the odds currently favor equities remaining stable or moving higher in Q4.
Sell the News? Not Yet
Tomorrow marks 9/11—May We Never Forget.
As I have shared many times before, when it comes to directional moves in the stock market, it is my long-standing belief that the reaction to news can be more telling than the news itself, especially in the short term. And Wall Street has had plenty of news releases/events to react to recently; including earnings, GDP, employment figures, trade and tariff uncertainty, and the implementation of the OBBBA, with many more news releases/events to come. This includes the CPI and inflation expectations on Thursday, the ECB rate decision, the Fed announcement and commentary on 9/17/25, developments in China, seasonal fluctuations (equities and VIX), Cap size/sector rotation, and Index Movers versus Non-Index Movers. We will closely monitor the reaction of the equity and fixed income markets.
Figure 1: The Jones. | Please refer to the comments in the chart and the areas of support (green and blue lines) and resistance (red lines).
Figure 2: The Index Movers and Small Cap proxy. | Please refer to the comments inside the chart, and the areas of support (green and blue lines/arrows) and resistance (red lines).
Bearish to Bullish (not yet) and Sentiment
Interestingly, DSI Treasury Bonds Sentiment is only at 76% (100% = Max Extreme Optimism), which seems low considering the jump bond prices have made (and the decline of interest rates) over the past few weeks. This reading, however, is above the 70-threshold, indicating “Extreme Optimism.”
However, it won’t give an official sell signal until it reverses below 70%. Please reach out for this chart or sentiment charts for other areas of interest (Financial, Currency, Energy, Metals, Agriculture, and Europe).
Figure 3: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Index and Treasury Bond Proxy. | Both charts have been “neutrally” configured for a while and continue to be so. Red lines depict resistance and green lines depict support.
The Day Hagan Smart Sector Strategies incorporate built-in risk management parameters relating to sector allocation and equity-versus-cash allocation. Please let me know if you would like to schedule a call to discuss the process and discipline underpinning our Smart Sector with Catastrophic Stop, Smart Sector International, and Smart Sector Fixed Income strategies. Disclosures and Fact Sheets can be found here: https://dhfunds.com/literature.
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Art Huprich, CMT®
Chief Market Technician
Day Hagan Asset Management
—Written 09.08-09.25. Chart source: Stockcharts.com unless otherwise noted.
Disclosure
The data and analysis contained herein are provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. Day Hagan Asset Management (DHAM), any of its affiliates or employees, or any third-party data provider, shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained in any Day Hagan Asset Management literature or marketing materials. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, and you should always obtain current information and perform due diligence before investing. DHAM accounts that DHAM, or its affiliated companies manage, or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees, may have long or short positions in the securities discussed herein and may purchase or sell such securities without notice. The securities mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, nor be suitable for all types of investors; their value and income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates or other factors.
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