The DH Catastrophic Stop Model declined to 50.0% from 54.55% last week, signaling further deterioration in equity-market and high-yield bond breadth. The weakening trend warrants caution, but the model remains above its sell threshold. A reading below 40% for two consecutive days would prompt us to raise cash. Until that occurs, the model continues to support benchmark-level equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Model declined to 54.55% from 59.09% last week, reflecting deterioration in equity-market breadth, as shown below. The weakening deserves attention, but the model remains comfortably above its defensive threshold and continues to support benchmark-level equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Model declined to 59.09% from 68.18% last week due to the High-Yield Bond Breadth indicator moving back to a sell signal. Overall, the model continues to support benchmark-level equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Model held steady at 68.18%. Overall, the model continues to support benchmark-level equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Model held steady at 68.18%. Overall, the model continues to support benchmark-level equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Model improved to 68.18% as the U.S. Corporate High-Yield Bond OAS (option-adjusted spread) factor declined (meaning spreads narrowed), generating a buy signal for equities. Overall, the model continues to support benchmark-level equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Model improved to 63.64% as the High-Yield Bond Breadth Factor reversed from oversold territory, reinforcing the model’s continued support for benchmark-level equity exposure.

The Catastrophic Stop model continues to support benchmark equity exposure. The message is participation with a seat belt: remain invested while respecting the model’s clearly defined risk boundary. A reading below 40% for two consecutive days would shift the evidence toward defense.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 59.09%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity allocation.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 59.09%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity allocation.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model declined to 59.09% as the Stock/Bond Relative Trend Factor turned negative. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity allocation.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remained at 68.18%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity allocation.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model declined to 68.18%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity allocation.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains at 86.4%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity allocation.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 86.4%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity allocation.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model increased to 86.4% from 77.3% last week. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity allocation.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains at 77.3%, indicating investors should maintain their benchmark equity allocation.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains at 77.3%. A 77.3% reading is a "stay fully invested, no major defensive action required" signal — comfortably above the action thresholds and consistent with a constructive risk environment. The model would need to drop roughly 37+ points (to below 40% for two consecutive days) before triggering the Catastrophic Stop signal.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model decreased to 77.3%, from 86.4% last week. The decline was driven by High-yield bond breadth shifting from bullish to negative. At 77.3%, the model continues to indicate that investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model increased to 86.36%, up from 81.82% last week. The improvement was driven by an intermediate-term trend/momentum factor reversing from negative to neutral.

This follows the Stock/Bond factor turning positive two weeks ago, the narrowing in High-Yield option-adjusted spreads discussed three weeks ago, and the improvement in both equity and High-Yield bond breadth (even with Friday’s weak participation at new all-time highs—more below). The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure.