Day Hagan Research

Day Hagan’s Research is a resource for U.S. and global financial market research and portfolio insights to help fuel client relationships and grow your practice. Read market commentary and research to help you deliver on your clients’ financial goals.

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Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Wisdom of Price

Last week, amid the S&P 500's uptrend, showed renewed upside participation after a stall. "Listen to the market, don't force your opinion on it," advises David Lundgren. Mid-Caps and Small Caps outperformed Large Cap Growth/Technology in June, a trend needing continuation. Smart Sector strategies offer discipline and support.

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Day Hagan Tech Talk: What, Me Worry?

As with the negative Advance-Decline Line divergence from late 2021, A/D Line divergences can last a while before being felt. While most technology-related proxies (SPX, NDX, XLK/SMH, “FANG+,” etc.) are reflecting Mad Magazine’s Alfred E. Neuman slogan, “What, me worry?” A/D Lines are again negatively diverging from underlying equity market proxies.

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Day Hagan Tech Talk: Purgatory

KISS (Keep It Simple, Sam): A push below 4098 would increase the odds of a retest of 4050 to 4045 support, which, if broken, would signal a bearish trend reversal. Alternatively, a push above resistance between 4190 and 4218 would suggest a continuation of the move higher since mid-March.

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Day Hagan Tech Talk: Enjoy the Whine

Much of the focus this week will be on what I call the noise: the Fed’s focus on inflation (May 3 interest rate announcement), additional economic reports capped off Friday by the April jobs report, and AAPL’s EPS report Thursday. Enjoy the whine—increased volatility in equities and interest rates.

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Day Hagan Tech Talk: Comfortably Numb

Narrow leadership, comparable to what we have seen since the beginning of 2023, is worrisome. Bob Farrell once said, "Markets are strongest when they are broad, and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names." Also, the small positive divergence in “Small-Cap land” must be built on!

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Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Makes No Sense At All

Wall Street is focused on Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual monetary policy testimony today and tomorrow and the employment report Friday. With that backdrop, the short-term chart configuration of domestic equity market proxies remains neutral. From an intermediate-term perspective, with excessive optimism (sentiment) relieved, the weight of the evidence supports the prospect of the uptrend eventually continuing, as shown in last week’s Chart Jamboree.

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Day Hagan Tech Talk: Who’s To Blame?

Everyone is blaming the Fed, two nonvoting FOMC participants, and related economic reports for yesterday’s sell off and last week’s price swings, including a lot of stock-specific weakness. For me, it was the continuation of prevailing conditions: overhanging selling pressure (resistance) making itself felt (Figure 1) and upward trending interest rates. As Wall Street debates the issues, I expect further volatility and for equity market proxies continue to consolidate/pullback—SPX 4000+/- to 3950+/-.

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Day Hagan Tech Talk: #!%@!

Within the context of a supportive price pattern of a higher trough & higher peak (Figure 2), Wall Street appears frustrated as domestic equity market indices struggle with overhanging selling pressure (resistance). It’s not clear yet whether a consolidation pattern develops or if further downside probing occurs.

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Day Hagan Tech Talk: But Why?

Within the context of a supportive, internal, price-related backdrop, last week I twice suggested tightening up short-term (trading) stops or taking short-term (trading) profits in whole or in part. In today’s report, I expand on one reason why—beyond the SPX trading over 2.5 standard deviations above its 50-day MA, an overbought condition—I still suggest this near-term tactical move.

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Day Hagan Tech Talk: Speaking Words of Wisdom: The Beatles and The Who

With a Fed announcement Wednesday and many corporate earnings reports this week, considering domestic equity market indices’ proximity to resistance (previous price peaks and downtrend lines), will domestic equity market indices break out topside or pull back before moving higher? I’d like to see the latter, won’t be surprised by either, and expect volatility to go up again, in both directions.

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