In June, the U.S. fixed income market navigated a complex landscape shaped by Treasury auctions, Federal Reserve commentary, and mixed inflation signals. Treasury yields experienced volatility but trended downward, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.235% on June 30, after peaking at 4.51% earlier in the month.

In June, the S&P 500 saw a significant increase of about 4.96%, marking its third-consecutive monthly gain after a challenging spring of policy shocks in April. This surge was fueled by supportive corporate earnings, decreasing volatility, and a normalization of trade tensions. Year-to-date, the index had risen approximately 5.5%, with a 12-month increase of more than 13.6%.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

When America won its independence, it was no longer constrained by British rule. Similarly, much of Wall Street is not constrained by overhanging selling pressure, as the “Index Movers” led several domestic equity market indices and proxies to new all-time highs.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

In this session, Art Huprich, CMT, analyzed S&P 500 momentum, bearish-to-bullish chart patterns, and sentiment indicators, highlighting opportunities in equities and commodities. He shared Day Hagan’s Smart Sector strategies to manage risk and capitalize on market trends, helping advisors navigate volatile markets.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model increased to 77.27% from 66.18% last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

We had seemingly moved past other issues, but renewed geopolitical tensions have led to a sudden increase in price volatility. Since the only constant is change, a dynamic landscape will continue to produce price volatility, up and down.  

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 68.18%, the same level as last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

Many domestic equity market indices and the NYSE all issues Advance-Decline Line (A/D Line) had been moving sideways. That is no longer the case as the lateral pattern resolved higher—bullish and supportive of a stair-step move higher.

The Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

After such a big rebound, don’t be surprised if the price pattern—a period of digestion, short-lived rallies, and short-lived declines (versus sustained buying and selling)—continues, followed by another, potentially strong, rally.

The Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

Fixed income markets exhibited varied performance in May, driven by divergent macroeconomic factors, dashed expectations of more dovish Federal Reserve policy, and sector-specific dynamics. Performance ranged from weakness in U.S. sovereigns to outperformance in emerging market bonds.

During May, global equity markets exhibited mixed results across key regions. These shifts were largely influenced by a weakening U.S. dollar, changes in central bank policies, and ongoing geopolitical developments. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 8.13% year-to-date.

In May, the S&P 500 experienced a remarkable surge of 6.15%, marking its best performance for the month since 1990. This rally was driven by a combination of strong corporate earnings, declining inflation, easing trade tensions, and robust economic indicators.

Equity markets don’t usually enjoy drama, especially now with all the underlying crosscurrents and headline risk. Case in point: Last week’s sell-off and yesterday’s rally. Respect the recent bullish tape action but be aware of ongoing crosscurrents and headline risks.

The Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week at 77.27%. The model recommends that investors maintain their equity benchmark exposure.

Join Art Huprich, CMT, for the May 2025 Day Hagan Technical Analysis Webinar Replay. Explore S&P 500 trends, breadth thrusts, market sentiment, and global equity insights. Learn smart sector strategies and risk management to navigate volatility and macro risks. Ideal for financial advisors seeking disciplined, data-driven investing approaches.