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Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2025 (pdf)

Executive Summary

Global Equity Performance: A Regional Snapshot

During May, global equity markets exhibited mixed results across key regions. These shifts were largely influenced by a weakening U.S. dollar, changes in central bank policies, and ongoing geopolitical developments. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 8.13% year-to-date. This dollar weakness stemmed from persistent trade uncertainties and fiscal concerns within the United States, creating a ripple effect that significantly shaped regional equity performances.

In China, the equity market saw a modest rise, as the CSI 300 Index increased by 2.3% in May, buoyed by aggressive stimulus measures from the People’s Bank of China, including interest rate cuts and the announcement of an RMB 500 billion stock stabilization fund. Despite growth slowing to 4.3%—below the targeted 5%—a truce on May 12 concerning U.S.-China tariffs, which reduced tariffs to 10%, catalyzed a late-month rally. The depreciation of the dollar alleviated import cost pressures, particularly benefiting Chinese tech companies. However, prior threats of a 34% tariff and tensions in the South China Sea limited overall gains, with projected earnings growth for 2025 sitting at 6%.

Australia’s equity market exhibited greater resilience, with the ASX 200 climbing 3.6% primarily due to the strength of commodity prices and the competitive edge provided by a weaker U.S. dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s indication of a rate cut to 3.35% improved consumer confidence, while a recent trade deal with the U.S. promised an influx of $240 billion in investments by 2035. Commodity prices, particularly copper, surged by 5% amid Middle Eastern tensions, benefiting major players like BHP. Despite these positive indicators, concerns surrounding slowing demand from China and potential tariff risks moderated expectations, with anticipated earnings growth for 2025 at 7%.

Germany’s DAX Index advanced by 6.7% amidst a backdrop of a strengthening euro and anticipated rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), which is expected to lower rates from 2.75% to around 2% by year-end. Supported by Eurozone GDP growth of 0.9%, the DAX benefited particularly from the performance of industrial and financial stocks. Nonetheless, the looming threat of U.S. tariffs on EU automobiles and geostrategic uncertainties in the Middle East present ongoing challenges. Germany’s projected earnings growth for 2025 stands at 8%, underscoring a moderate but cautious optimism in the market.

In France, the CAC 40 experienced a rise of 2.1% driven by a robust luxury sector and supportive fiscal policies. The ECB’s easing measures and a trade agreement with the U.S. eased tariff-related anxieties, while the weaker dollar enhanced the competitiveness of French exports. Despite consumer spending remaining approximately 6% below pre-pandemic levels, there are indications of recovery on the horizon. However, rising energy costs due to Middle East tensions temper this optimism, with a forecasted 2025 earnings growth of 7.5% reflecting these dynamics.

Canada’s TSX Composite rose by 5.4%, propelled by gains in the energy and financial sectors. The recent U.S. trade accord and exemption from 10% base tariffs under the USMCA created a positive atmosphere, further supported by a weaker dollar that benefited commodity exports. Oil prices increased by 3% amid Middle Eastern tensions, thus enhancing the outlook for energy stocks. The Bank of Canada’s predicted rate cuts and a GDP growth forecast of 1.5% solidified market confidence, although political uncertainty following the prime minister’s resignation poses significant risks, with 2025 earnings expected to grow by 6.5%.

Japan significantly outperformed its regional peers, with the Nikkei 225 surging 4.7%, largely driven by a reflationary narrative supported by a stronger yen and a recent rate hike from the Bank of Japan to 1%. Following the tariff truce, tech exports, particularly from companies like Sony, thrived, and consumer spending has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. The newly forged U.S.-Japan trade deal also alleviated tariff exposure on select goods. Notwithstanding persistent risks associated with the Middle East, Japan’s earnings growth is forecasted at a robust 10%, reflecting the foundation of strong economic fundamentals.

Finally, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 recorded a 3.3% increase, aided by the Bank of England’s rate cut to 4.5% and stable Brent crude prices ranging between $70 to $90. The U.S.-U.K. trade agreement mitigated tariff concerns, and the weaker dollar further bolstered export competitiveness. Nevertheless, enduring inflation that exceeds Eurozone levels, along with uncertainties surrounding the conflict in Ukraine, continue to weigh on market sentiment. Energy and defensive stocks led this rally, with projected earnings growth for 2025 anticipated at 7%. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has highlighted fiscal challenges, warning of low growth and increasing borrowing costs.

Conclusion

Japan emerged as a leader in global ex-U.S. equity performance, benefiting from a stronger yen and favorable economic conditions, while China’s markets faced challenges related to growth and external pressures. Australia captured attention with its commodity strength, alongside notable performances in Germany and France, as global equity dynamics continue to evolve amid shifting economic landscapes and geopolitical tensions.

Holdings

Core: Developed Market Positions (approximately 65% of equity holdings)

Explore: Emerging Market Positions (approximately 35% of equity holdings)

Philippines
Chile
Malaysia
Thailand
Brazil

Position Details

Core: Developed Market Commentary

Approximately 65% of the strategy is allocated across eight of the largest markets in the ACWI ex-U.S. Index. The fund overweights and underweights the largest non-U.S. equity markets based on macro, fundamental, behavioral, and technical indicators.

Australia: Australia’s composite model remains neutral. Measures of trend and relative volatility are positive, while interest rate differentials, declining relative corporate profitability, and historically stretched relative valuations are negative. We continue to hold a neutral allocation.

Commentary: The Australian equity market demonstrated strong performance in May, with the ASX 200 increasing by 3.6%, marking its most significant monthly gain since January. This rise was primarily supported by robust earnings from the banking and utility sectors, while energy and technology stocks lagged behind. The country’s GDP growth for Q1 2025 outpaced expectations, registering a 0.6% increase, underpinned by a 0.4% rise in household spending that boosted consumer confidence. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to lower interest rates to 3.85% on May 20 further supported positive market sentiment, with expectations of two additional quarter-point cuts by year-end. A weaker U.S. dollar also bolstered the competitiveness of Australian exports, benefitting mining companies like BHP, despite a 1.22% decline in the commodity index. While a tariff truce between the U.S. and China on May 12 alleviated some trade concerns, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential tariffs from the EU pose ongoing risks to the market.

Figure 1: Weaker trends in gold prices are negative for Australia. (This indicator was bullish last month.) — **Figure 1:** Weaker trends in gold prices are negative for Australia. (This indicator was bullish last month.)

Canada: Canada’s composite model remains neutral, though it has improved from the beginning of May. Measures of trend, corporate profitability, and relative currency strength are supportive. Mean reversion, Leading Economic Indicators, and relative valuations (to the rest of the world) are negative.

Commentary: Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index increased by 5.4%, propelled by strong performances in financial and energy sectors, despite ongoing tariff uncertainties from the U.S. A 0.3% rise in Canada’s GDP for April, with manufacturing and retail sectors experiencing a 0.4% uptick, helped support equity markets amid a sluggish annual growth forecast of 1.3%. Meanwhile, Q1 earnings for TSX companies rose by 8%, significantly boosted by major banks such as the Royal Bank of Canada. However, the energy sector faced challenges due to stagnant oil prices, which fluctuated between $60 and $75 per barrel. On May 15, the Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate to 3.85%, which helped bolster consumer confidence. However, a decline in the U.S. dollar raised import costs, squeezing profit margins. Although a U.S.-China tariff truce on May 12 alleviated some concerns, the introduction of U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports, including steel and aluminum, created market volatility.

Figure 2: Canada’s recent relative strength continues to roll over as overbought conditions are being worked off. — **Figure 2:** Canada’s recent relative strength continues to roll over as overbought conditions are being worked off.

China: China’s composite model is back to neutral with trend, PMI, and credit spread indicator improvements supporting the model. However, relative price momentum, mean reversion from oversold conditions, and relative currency trends remain headwinds, although the weaker U.S. dollar is beneficial. We remain underweight.

Commentary: China’s key stock indices experienced a modest rebound in May, with the CSI 300 Index rising 2.3%, while the Shanghai Composite gained 2.2%. This recovery followed a volatile beginning to the year, driven by significant stimulus measures from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which included a 0.5% reduction in interest rates to 3.35% and the establishment of an RMB 500 billion stock stabilization fund. Earnings growth for Q1 2025 was 6%, predominantly supported by the technology and industrial sectors, despite ongoing challenges in the property market. On May 12, a tariff agreement between the U.S. and China lowered tariffs from 145% to 10%, positively influencing export-driven internet stocks, such as those in the CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB), which rose by 3.2%. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar weakened, enhancing the competitiveness of the yuan. However, geopolitical tensions and potential EU tariffs limited gains. Consumer spending increased by 0.4%, but inflation remained low with April’s CPI at 0.2%. Investors should remain cautious of trade dynamics and fiscal developments within the context of low market valuations.

Figure 3: High-yield option-adjusted spreads are a good proxy for risk-on or risk-off and are useful for calling asset classes like China’s equity markets. Spreads have narrowed over the past month. — **Figure 3:** High-yield option-adjusted spreads are a good proxy for risk-on or risk-off and are useful for calling asset classes like China’s equity markets. Spreads have narrowed over the past month.

France: The Composite model is underweight with the June update. The technical backdrop is deteriorating, and investor outflows accelerated during the month. Leading economic indicators are mixed and neutral. We are reducing exposure in response.

Commentary: France’s CAC 40 Index increased 2.1%. This upswing was primarily driven by a robust 4.8% earnings growth in the first quarter among CAC 40 companies, with luxury brands such as LVMH and Hermès leading the charge, despite stagnant revenue growth. Investor sentiment was further bolstered by the European Central Bank’s rate cut to 2.75% on May 8, fueling expectations for a potential reduction to 2% by year-end, contributing to a 0.3% rise in consumer spending in April. Additionally, the decline of the U.S. dollar strengthened the euro, improving export conditions for companies like Airbus. A U.S.-China tariff truce on May 12 alleviated supply chain concerns, while a U.S.-EU trade agreement lessened tariff risks. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East posed challenges, particularly regarding energy costs. The IMF highlighted significant uncertainty stemming from trade and geopolitical tensions, although France’s financial and consumer goods sectors remained resilient, with Q1 GDP growth reported at 0.6%.

Figure 4: France has been experiencing investor outflows. — **Figure 4**: France has been experiencing investor outflows.

Germany: Germany’s composite model remains bullish. Indicators such as breadth, trend, and relative valuations (based on dividend yield), as well as increasing manufacturing confidence and corporate profitability, are supportive. There have been recent investor outflows as the U.S. has become more attractive, but Germany remains one of the top countries for investment relative to the rest of the world. We are overweight.

Commentary: Germany’s DAX 40 Index increased 6.7%, marking its highest monthly gain since January. This surge was largely attributed to a strong performance in the first quarter, with earnings growth reaching 9.8%, driven by major companies such as Siemens and SAP. Investor confidence was further buoyed by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to lower rates to 2.75% on May 8, with expectations of a further reduction to 2% by year-end. Additionally, consumer spending rose by 0.3% in April. A U.S.-China tariff truce and a delay in U.S. tariffs on EU automotive products also helped alleviate trade tensions, despite ongoing concerns regarding the Middle East conflicts and China’s demand. Although the European Commission projected a slow GDP growth of 0.9% for 2025, Germany’s planned infrastructure investments hinted at potential recovery. Investors should remain vigilant about ECB policies and U.S. trade developments, as current valuations (P/E ratio of 14.5x) suggest possible upside, though tariff risks and energy costs persist.

Figure 5: Longer-term breadth measure for Germany indicates long-term overbought conditions are building. — **Figure 5:** Longer-term breadth measure for Germany indicates long-term overbought conditions are building.

Japan: Japan’s composite model increased entering June. Measures of short-term trend, intermediate-term trend, valuations, forward earnings growth expectations, and investor sentiment are bullish. Some weakening in China’s forecasted economic activity and muted Chinese PMIs are headwinds. The net result is an overweight position.

Commentary: The Nikkei 225 Index increased by 4.7%, influenced by a more supportive BoJ and a strengthening yen. Japanese equity funds reflected investor caution, exacerbated by concerns over potential U.S. tariffs that could reach 24% on Japanese imports. Concurrently, the yen appreciated against a declining U.S. dollar. The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5% while hinting at a possible increase in June, which drove bond yields up to 0.5%, adding pressure on export-oriented stocks. April’s inflation rate was recorded at 3.6%, and consumer spending increased by 0.3%, favoring domestic companies.

Figure 6: Earnings growth picking up for Japan. — **Figure 6:** Earnings growth picking up for Japan.

Switzerland: The Swiss model composite’s technical indicators remain negative on balance. Trend, price momentum, interest rate trends, and investor outflows are negative. We are underweight.

Commentary: For May, the Swiss Market Index (SMI) was up only 0.91%, one of the weakest results of our global universe. Defensive sectors, particularly healthcare and consumer staples, which constitute 70% of the index’s market capitalization, were relative outperformers. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut rates by 0.25% on May 15. A declining U.S. dollar bolstered the Swiss franc, reducing import costs, yet posed challenges for exporters like Swatch, particularly amid sluggish demand in China for luxury goods. Switzerland’s price-to-earnings ratio of 18x is somewhat elevated relative to the rest of the world (ex-U.S.).

Figure 7: Negative momentum scores for the Swiss equity market. We would require a reversal before adding exposure. — **Figure 7:** Negative momentum scores for the Swiss equity market. We would require a reversal before adding exposure.

United Kingdom: The UK composite model turned negative, with measures of short-term trend, relative currency strength, valuations, and U.K. credit spreads (OAS) bearish. Investor sentiment is showing some optimism but is at levels that indicate a potential reversal is at hand. We are now underweight.

Commentary: The FTSE 100 Index increased by 3.3% in May. The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates to 4.25% on May 9 to stimulate consumer spending, which rose by 0.4% in April. Although inflation remained steady at 2.4%, it still exceeded the Eurozone’s rate of 2.3%. A weaker U.S. dollar boosted the pound, enhancing export conditions for companies like Unilever. A U.S.-China tariff truce reached on May 12 alleviated supply chain concerns, while a new U.S.-U.K. trade deal reduced tariff uncertainties, despite proposed 20% tariffs on U.K. goods causing market volatility. The OECD revised its U.K. GDP growth forecast down to 1.4%, signaling ongoing concerns.

Figure 8: Investor sentiment for the FTSE 100 has reversed from pessimism and is now neutral. — **Figure 8:** Investor sentiment for the FTSE 100 has reversed from pessimism and is now neutral.

Emerging Market Positions

Approximately 30% of the strategy is allocated across five markets from a pool of more than 20 smaller markets. Selection is based on a multifactor technical ranking system using trend and mean reversion indicators. The process seeks to identify oversold opportunities within the global equity markets that are likely to mean-revert from lower levels and exhibit mild pullbacks from long-term uptrends.

Current Holdings:

Philippines
Chile
Malaysia
Thailand
Brazil

Explore: Emerging Market Commentary

Philippines: Earnings for Q1 reflected an 11% growth overall, with consumer discretionary seeing a robust increase of 19.1%. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas maintained interest rates at 5.5% on May 16, supporting stable inflation at 3%. Additionally, a weaker U.S. dollar helped strengthen the peso, benefiting exporters. A U.S.-China tariff truce on May 12 eased supply chain anxieties. The PSEi’s low P/E ratio of 11.4x suggests potential value amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Chile: First-quarter earnings for 2025 rose by 6%, driven by major companies like SQM, following a U.S.-China tariff agreement on May 12 that alleviated export challenges. On May 16, the Central Bank of Chile reduced its interest rate to 4.75%, thereby enhancing liquidity, which complemented the stabilization of April’s inflation rate at 3.8%. A weakening U.S. dollar further strengthened the Chilean peso, improving export competitiveness. Despite regional tensions in the Middle East, market valuations are attractive, with a P/E ratio of 10x.

Malaysia: Improving investor sentiment is supporting the region. Initiatives such as the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone are bolstering economic activity. The technology and financial sectors drove Q1 2025 earnings growth to 8%, benefiting from a recent U.S.-China tariff truce on May 12, which particularly aided semiconductor companies. Bank Negara Malaysia held interest rates steady at 3% as of May 8, resulting in a stable inflation rate of 2.1%. Additionally, a decline in the U.S. dollar enhanced the competitiveness of the Malaysian ringgit. Malaysia’s equity market is currently priced at a P/E of 13x.

Thailand: In May 2025, Thailand’s SET Index experienced a notable increase, marking the most significant rally since January, primarily driven by a recovery in tourism and robust first-quarter earnings, with SET-listed companies reporting an 8% growth, particularly in the consumer and technology sectors. The Bank of Thailand’s decision to reduce the interest rate to 2.25% on May 14 further stimulated domestic consumption, reflected in a 0.5% rise in retail sales for April. Concurrently, a declining U.S. dollar strengthened the Thai baht, thereby enhancing the price competitiveness of Thai exports. Thailand’s equity market is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 times.

Brazil: Strong economic fundamentals and increasing global confidence are supportive. Notably, in the final week of the month, stocks related to banks and consumers increased. Earnings growth for Q1 2025 reached 8%, with leading financial firm Itaú demonstrating strong performance, as reported by Valor International. A rate cut by the Banco Central do Brasil to 14.75% on May 7, alongside an inflation rate of 4.6%, further stimulated consumer spending, which rose by 0.5% in April. Additionally, the weakening U.S. dollar bolstered the real, enhancing Brazil’s export competitiveness. With a low P/E ratio of 9x, Brazil presents an attractive investment opportunity based on our ranking.

Catastrophic Stop Model

The Catastrophic Stop model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high-risk periods for the equity market. The model entered June recommending a fully invested equity allocation relative to the benchmark.

The Catastrophic Stop model level increased to 77.27% as of Friday, May 30 (where 0 represents the worst conditions and 100 represents the best). Measures calling breadth thrusts (periods of high demand), reversals from extreme oversold conditions, volume supply vs. demand, high-yield credit spreads (OAS), economic activity, and high-yield bond breadth are bullish. The Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite has moved further into the excessive optimism zone. This is not unusual after significant declines; historically, the model has often shown extreme pessimism that quickly transitions into excessive optimism. We interpret this rapid movement similarly to a “breadth thrust.” With sentiment indicators, we go with the flow until it reaches an extreme and reverses. In other words, we will rate this indicator as neutral until it reverses back below 70.

The weight of the evidence suggests that the recent decline is not expected to extend into a significant downtrend. Of course, if our model flips negative (below 40% for two consecutive days), signaling more substantial problems, we will raise cash immediately.

**Figure 9:** The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Note: The model’s levels prior to 5-1-2025 have been archived. As of that date, the model was modified to include Breadth Thrust and Oversold Mean Reversion clusters. Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical.

The Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite (chart below) has recently moved into the neutral zone from levels denoting excessive pessimism. If the composite moves above 70 and reverses, it would be considered a headwind for stocks. Currently, the trend is your friend.

Figure 10: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite — **Figure 10:** S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite

This strategy utilizes measures of price, valuation, economic trends, monetary liquidity, and market sentiment to make objective, unemotional, rational decisions about how much capital to place at risk and where to place that capital.

For more information, please contact us at:

Day Hagan Asset Management
1000 S. Tamiami Trl
Sarasota, FL 34236
Toll Free: (800) 594-7930
Office Phone: (941) 330-1702

Website: https://dayhagan.com or https://dhfunds.com

This material is for educational purposes only. Further distribution is prohibited without prior permission. Please see the information on Disclosures and Fact Sheets here: https://dhfunds.com/literature. Charts with models and return information use indices for performance testing to extend the model histories, and they should be considered hypothetical. All Rights Reserved. (© Copyright 2025 Day Hagan Asset Management.)

Day Hagan Smart Sector® International ETF

Symbol: SSXU

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Strategy Description

The Smart Sector® International strategy combines three quantitative investment strategies: Core International, Explore International, and Catastrophic Stop.

The Process Is Based On The Weight Of The Evidence

Core Allocation

The fund begins by overweighting and underweighting the largest non-U.S. equity markets based on proprietary models.
Each of the models utilizes market-specific, weight-of-the-evidence composites of fundamental, economic, technical, and behavioral indicators to determine each area’s probability of outperforming the ACWI, for example. U.S. Markets are weighted accordingly relative to benchmark weightings.

Explore Allocation

To select smaller markets, the fund uses a multi-factor technical ranking system to choose the top markets. The markets with the highest rankings split the non-core model allocation equally.

When Market Risks Become Extraordinarily High — Reduce Your Portfolio Risk

The model remains fully invested unless the Catastrophic model is triggered, whereupon the equity-invested position may be trimmed by up to 50%.
The Catastrophic Stop model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify periods of high risk for the broad U.S. equity market. The model uses price-based, breadth, deviation from trend, fundamental, economic, interest rate, behavioral, and volatility-based indicator composites.

When Market Risks Return To Normal — Put Your Money Back To Work

When the Catastrophic Stop model moves back to bullish levels, indicating lower risk, the strategy will reverse toward being fully invested.

Disclosures

The data and analysis contained within are provided "as is" and without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. The information is based on data believed to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed. Day Hagan DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY, OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. All performance measures do not reflect tax consequences, execution, commissions, and other trading costs, and as such, investors should consult their tax advisors before making investment decisions, as well as realize that the past performance and results of the model are not a guarantee of future results. The Smart Sector® Strategy is not intended to be the primary basis for investment decisions and the usage of the model does not address the suitability of any particular in Fixed Income vestment for any particular investor.

Using any graph, chart, formula, model, or other device to assist in deciding which securities to trade or when to trade them presents many difficulties and their effectiveness has significant limitations, including that prior patterns may not repeat themselves continuously or on any particular occasion. In addition, market participants using such devices can impact the market in a way that changes the effectiveness of such devices. Day Hagan believes no individual graph, chart, formula, model, or other device should be used as the sole basis for any investment decision and suggests that all market participants consider differing viewpoints and use a weight-of-the-evidence approach that fits their investment needs.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. No current or prospective client should assume future performance of any specific investment or strategy will be profitable or equal to past performance levels. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals and economic conditions may materially alter the performance of your portfolio. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a client’s portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. There can be no assurances that a portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.

Day Hagan Asset Management is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

There may be a potential tax implication with a rebalancing strategy. Re-balancing involves selling some positions and buying others, and this activity results in realized gains and losses for the positions that are sold. The performance calculations do not reflect the impact that paying taxes would have, and for taxable accounts, any taxable gains would reduce the performance on an after-tax basis. This reduction could be material to the overall performance of an actual trading account. Day Hagan does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice. Please consult your tax advisor in connection with this material, before implementing such a strategy, and prior to any withdrawals that you make from your portfolio.

There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives, generate dividends or avoid losses.

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