As with the negative Advance-Decline Line divergence from late 2021, A/D Line divergences can last a while before being felt. While most technology-related proxies (SPX, NDX, XLK/SMH, “FANG+,” etc.) are reflecting Mad Magazine’s Alfred E. Neuman slogan, “What, me worry?” A/D Lines are again negatively diverging from underlying equity market proxies.

The Day Hagan Technical Analysis was recorded on May 23, 2023. Art Huprich, CMT, shares his monthly chart jamboree. He discusses Equity Markets, the regional bank crisis, the debt ceiling debate, and other financial market topics.

KISS (Keep It Simple, Sam): A push below 4098 would increase the odds of a retest of 4050 to 4045 support, which, if broken, would signal a bearish trend reversal. Alternatively, a push above resistance between 4190 and 4218 would suggest a continuation of the move higher since mid-March.

Having absorbed and contained some issues last week (Fed meeting, AAPL earnings, and April jobs report), on tap this week is the CPI (Wednesday) and PPI (Thursday). Day Hagan’s view is that inflation has peaked.

Much of the focus this week will be on what I call the noise: the Fed’s focus on inflation (May 3 interest rate announcement), additional economic reports capped off Friday by the April jobs report, and AAPL’s EPS report Thursday. Enjoy the whine—increased volatility in equities and interest rates.

The Ned Davis Research Catastrophic Stop Loss Model, part of our Smart Sector Global Balance Portfolio Strategy, remains, since November 2022, fully invested versus its S&P 500 benchmark. If our indicators reverse and suggest otherwise, we will follow.

The Day Hagan Technical Analysis was recorded on April 19, 2023. Art Huprich, CMT, shares his monthly chart jamboree. He discusses Global Recession Probability, Credit Spreads, Investment Grade Banking, Domestic Equity Market, and other financial market topics.

While I’m not a fan of the entire Commodity complex, there are areas of improving and/or bullish absolute and/or relative chart configurations. This includes Silver and Gold.

The Ned Davis Research Catastrophic Stop Loss Model has been fully invested since November 2022. Compared to its S&P 500 benchmark, it has remained on the correct side of the trend.

The Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® for Global Balanced Portfolios was recorded on March 29, 2023.

Narrow leadership, comparable to what we have seen since the beginning of 2023, is worrisome. Bob Farrell once said, "Markets are strongest when they are broad, and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names." Also, the small positive divergence in “Small-Cap land” must be built on!

The Day Hagan Technical Analysis was recorded on March 21, 2023. Art Huprich, CMT, shares his monthly chart jamboree. He discusses the banking sector and recent bank closures, the Bond markets, Equity Markets, the overall U.S. economy, Growth, Gold, Crude Oil, and other financial market topics.

During our recent technical analysis Chart Jamboree, we spent a lot of time addressing whether Wall Street is putting its head in the sand about the effects of quickly rising bond yields. Last week’s tape action and this weekend’s banking system news answered our question with a resounding “yes, it is.”

Wall Street is focused on Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual monetary policy testimony today and tomorrow and the employment report Friday. With that backdrop, the short-term chart configuration of domestic equity market proxies remains neutral. From an intermediate-term perspective, with excessive optimism (sentiment) relieved, the weight of the evidence supports the prospect of the uptrend eventually continuing, as shown in last week’s Chart Jamboree.

The Day Hagan Technical Analysis was recorded on February 28, 2023. Art Huprich, CMT, shares his monthly chart jamboree where he discusses regime change, equity markets, inflation, interest rates, quantitative tightening, light crude oil, growth vs value, and other market topics.

Everyone is blaming the Fed, two nonvoting FOMC participants, and related economic reports for yesterday’s sell off and last week’s price swings, including a lot of stock-specific weakness. For me, it was the continuation of prevailing conditions: overhanging selling pressure (resistance) making itself felt (Figure 1) and upward trending interest rates. As Wall Street debates the issues, I expect further volatility and for equity market proxies continue to consolidate/pullback—SPX 4000+/- to 3950+/-.

Within the context of a supportive price pattern of a higher trough & higher peak (Figure 2), Wall Street appears frustrated as domestic equity market indices struggle with overhanging selling pressure (resistance). It’s not clear yet whether a consolidation pattern develops or if further downside probing occurs.

Day Hagan Market Update, hosted by Donald Hagan, CFA, was recorded on February 9, 2023. Don discusses a variety of financial market-related topics, including the driving forces influencing the global financial markets, the U.S. economy, NDR Economic Models, Inflation, Earnings Growth, the Information Technology Sector, Valuations, the U.S. dollar, Manufacturing, the NDR Catastrophic Stop model, and more.

Within the context of a supportive, internal, price-related backdrop, last week I twice suggested tightening up short-term (trading) stops or taking short-term (trading) profits in whole or in part. In today’s report, I expand on one reason why—beyond the SPX trading over 2.5 standard deviations above its 50-day MA, an overbought condition—I still suggest this near-term tactical move.