Entering April, the strategy continued to favor risk-on leadership but did not rebalance. The model remains overweight, U.S. Treasuries (allocated across short-, intermediate-, and long-duration), High Yield, & Emerging Market Bonds. The portfolio is market weight TIPS & Mortgage-Backed Securities & underweight U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. Investment Grade, and International Investment Grade.

The allocation of International Investment-Grade bonds remained underweight. Rising inflation expectations are bearish for the sector but offset by rising stock market volatility. Price-based measures—rising relative strength and short-term trend—improved during the month to bullish levels.

Entering February, the strategy continued to favor risk-on leadership but did rebalance. The model remained overweight (versus the AGG benchmark), U.S. Treasuries, High Yield, & Emerging Market Bonds. The portfolio is market weight TIPS & Mortgage-Backed Securities & underweight U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. Investment Grade, International Investment Grade, & International Bonds.

Entering January, the fixed income allocation strategy shifted to risk-on leadership. The model is relatively overweight: U.S. High-Yield, Long-Term Treasurys, Short-Term TIPS, U.S. Investment Grade Corporates, International Investment Grade, and Emerging Market Bonds. The model is relatively underweight in U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities and U.S. Investment-Grade Corporations.

Entering December, the fixed income allocation strategy shifted to risk-on leadership. The model is relatively overweight: U.S. High-Yield, Long-Term Treasurys, Short-Term TIPS, U.S. Investment Grade Corporates, International Investment Grade, and Emerging Market Bonds. The model is relatively underweight in U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities and U.S. Investment-Grade Corporations.

Entering November, the fixed income allocation strategy continued to favor mixed leadership. The model is overweight U.S. Long-Term Treasurys, International Investment Grade, and U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. The model is underweight U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, and U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities.

The risk management model seeks to reduce exposure to fixed income sectors most sensitive to equity drawdowns. The risk management model deteriorated from last month but entered October recommending full model exposure to areas most sensitive to equity markets: U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes.

Entering September, the fixed income allocation strategy remains with a risk-on message and suggests no rebalancing from the month prior. The model remains overweight U.S. Treasurys, U.S. High-Yield Bonds, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, Emerging Market Bonds, and underweight U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, and Floating Rate Notes.

Risk management model remains unchanged, advising full exposure to U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes. Steady indicators support this allocation.

Risk management model recommends full exposure to equity-sensitive fixed-income sectors: U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes. Fixed income markets show mixed performance, with short-term yields rising and long-term yields cooling. Sector allocations remain stable, with slight changes in weights.

The risk management model (chart at right) seeks to reduce exposure to fixed income sectors most sensitive to equity drawdowns (U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes) during periods of market stress.

The risk management model (chart right) seeks to reduce exposure to fixed-income sectors most sensitive to equity drawdowns. The risk management model improved from last month and entered May recommending full model exposure to U.S. Treasury, U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, U.S. Corporates, International Investment Grade Bonds, and U.S. Short-Term Bonds.

With yields across the board declining in March, fixed-income sectors rallied. Entering April, the fixed income allocation strategy is overweight International Bond, U.S. Long-Term Treasury, TIPS, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes. The U.S. Corporate, U.S. High Yield, and Emerging Market Bond sectors are underweight.

With yields across the board rising in February, fixed income sectors suffered. Floating Rate Notes and International Investment Grade improved to overweight, while U.S. Investment Grade Corporate bonds dropped to underweight. Additionally, a rising U.S. dollar led to Emerging Market bond underperformance and an underweight allocation.

The risk management model seeks to reduce exposure to fixed income sectors most sensitive to equity drawdowns. The risk management model improved from last month and entered February recommending full model exposure to areas most sensitive to equity markets: U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes.

The risk management model seeks to reduce exposure to fixed income sectors most sensitive to equity drawdowns. While the risk management model deteriorated from last month, it entered January recommending full model exposure to areas most sensitive to equity markets: U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes.

With a likely downshift in Fed policy, the fixed income portfolios likely need to be repositioned. Credit conditions are tighter, but not too tight. Credit sectors such as high yield and investment grade have been relative outperformers and are both overweight.

On November 1, 2022, the Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy improved to a fully invested position.

A deteriorating economic outlook and declining inflation expectations are making bonds better values. But central banks are not done tightening, so it is premature to turn excessively bullish on bonds. Targeted allocation remains key.

Based on the September 22, 2022 model updates, the Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income strategy has taken a defensive position due to the NDR Catastrophic Stop model moving to a sell signal. Exposure to Emerging Market Bonds, High Yield Bonds, Investment Grade Corporate Bonds, and Floating Rate Notes have been reduced by approximately 50%.