The NDR Catastrophic Stop Sell model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high-risk periods for the equity market. The model deteriorated from last month but entered October with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation.

Entering September, the fixed income allocation strategy remains with a risk-on message and suggests no rebalancing from the month prior. The model remains overweight U.S. Treasurys, U.S. High-Yield Bonds, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, Emerging Market Bonds, and underweight U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, and Floating Rate Notes.

The Catastrophic Stop model declined from last month, but it continues to recommend a fully invested allocation. Entering September, the non-U.S. equity Core model overweighted Australia, Germany, Japan, and China while underweighting the U.K., Canada, France, and Switzerland. The Explore model favored Poland, Mexico, Peru, Spain, and India.

Sector leadership remained mixed during the month. Entering September, the sector model is overweight Information Technology, Communication Services, & Utilities. Health Care, Industrials, & Financials moved to market weight, while Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Materials, & Real Estate are underweight.

Global markets gained with emerging markets performing well. Global PMI slowed but remains in expansion. Non-U.S. equity Core model overweight on China, Australia, Germany, Canada; Explore model favors Chile, India, South Korea, Sweden, Taiwan.

Risk management model remains unchanged, advising full exposure to U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes. Steady indicators support this allocation.

The NDR Catastrophic Stop Update: NDR's model recommends fully invested equity allocation in August. Market gains continue, led by cyclical value sectors. The model remains a mix of cyclical and defensive sectors.

Risk management model recommends full exposure to equity-sensitive fixed-income sectors: U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes. Fixed income markets show mixed performance, with short-term yields rising and long-term yields cooling. Sector allocations remain stable, with slight changes in weights.

Improved Catastrophic Stop model recommends fully invested allocation. Global markets show positive growth, with Japan and Australia overweighted. Germany and the UK underweighted. Explore opportunities in Mexico, South Korea, Poland, Taiwan, and India. Models use various indicators for objective analysis.

Improved NDR Catastrophic Stop model enters July fully invested. S&P 500 gains, led by cyclical sectors. Technology remains largest position, while Industrials and Consumer Staples change. Sector model indicates mixed leadership, overweighting IT, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Health Care, Utilities.

The NDR Catastrophic Sell Stop model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high-risk periods for the equity market. The model deteriorated from last month but entered June with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation.

The risk management model (chart at right) seeks to reduce exposure to fixed income sectors most sensitive to equity drawdowns (U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes) during periods of market stress.

The NDR Catastrophic Sell Stop model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high risk periods for the equity market. The model (chart at right) deteriorated from last month but entered June with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation.

The Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® for Global Balanced Portfolios was recorded on May 29, 2023.

The risk management model (chart right) seeks to reduce exposure to fixed-income sectors most sensitive to equity drawdowns. The risk management model improved from last month and entered May recommending full model exposure to U.S. Treasury, U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, U.S. Corporates, International Investment Grade Bonds, and U.S. Short-Term Bonds.

The NDR Catastrophic Sell Stop model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high-risk periods for the equity market. The model (chart at right) improved from last month and entered May with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation.

The NDR Catastrophic Sell Stop model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high risk periods for the equity market. The model (chart at right) improved from last month and entered May with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation.

The Catastrophic Stop model deteriorated in March but remains with a fully invested Core and Explore allocation entering April. The Core model overweighted the U.K., Germany, and Switzerland while underweighting Canada and China. The Explore model favored the Philippines, Thailand, Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, and Mexico. The models combine macro, fundamental, technical, and sentiment indicators to determine opportunities and identify risks in an objective, weight-of-the-evidence approach.

With yields across the board declining in March, fixed-income sectors rallied. Entering April, the fixed income allocation strategy is overweight International Bond, U.S. Long-Term Treasury, TIPS, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes. The U.S. Corporate, U.S. High Yield, and Emerging Market Bond sectors are underweight.

The sector allocation strategy’s message is mixed with overweights to Value sectors like Energy and Financials, as well as Growth sectors like Technology and Communications Services. Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care are at underweight. The sector model uses sector-specific indicators to determine opportunities and identify risks in an objective, weight-of-the-evidence approach.