This presentation explores tailwinds and headwinds, domestic price trends, sentiment, seasonality, crude oil, interest rates, U.S. dollar strength, and much more. Financial advisors are encouraged to watch this presentation replay for a comprehensive understanding of the market trends and indicators.

Year-to-date, through the end of August, the portfolio was up +6.88%* net of fees vs. the benchmark Russell 1000 Value Index Total Return, +5.79%. For the three-year period from 8-31-2020 through 8-31-2023, the portfolio gained at a +13.38%* annualized rate (net of fees) vs. +11.39% for our benchmark.

Entering September, the fixed income allocation strategy remains with a risk-on message and suggests no rebalancing from the month prior. The model remains overweight U.S. Treasurys, U.S. High-Yield Bonds, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, Emerging Market Bonds, and underweight U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, and Floating Rate Notes.

The Catastrophic Stop model declined from last month, but it continues to recommend a fully invested allocation. Entering September, the non-U.S. equity Core model overweighted Australia, Germany, Japan, and China while underweighting the U.K., Canada, France, and Switzerland. The Explore model favored Poland, Mexico, Peru, Spain, and India.

Sector leadership remained mixed during the month. Entering September, the sector model is overweight Information Technology, Communication Services, & Utilities. Health Care, Industrials, & Financials moved to market weight, while Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Materials, & Real Estate are underweight.

Labor Day is a celebration of the social and economic achievements of American workers. In my opinion, Wall Street is a similar celebration and reflection of the ingenuity and entrepreneurial desire of the human spirit. And last week, Wall Street celebrated.

Following recent near-term positive/supportive oversold stochastic levels accompanied by large intraday price swings, the S&P 500 just posted its first positive week in August, breaking a 3-week downtrend. If stocks have settled down, this begs the question…What’s the Next Card in the Deck?

Higher interest rates are weighing on equities, and focus will be on the Fed’s conference this week.

Considering the S&P 500’s (SPX) bearish short-term Outside Reversal and move below support, the SPX’s target being met, excessively optimistic sentiment, and a seasonally sloppy period for equities (August/September), Wall Street’s narrative has been about both bullish and bearish non-price-related macroeconomic themes.

Global markets gained with emerging markets performing well. Global PMI slowed but remains in expansion. Non-U.S. equity Core model overweight on China, Australia, Germany, Canada; Explore model favors Chile, India, South Korea, Sweden, Taiwan.

Risk management model remains unchanged, advising full exposure to U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes. Steady indicators support this allocation.

The NDR Catastrophic Stop Update: NDR's model recommends fully invested equity allocation in August. Market gains continue, led by cyclical value sectors. The model remains a mix of cyclical and defensive sectors.

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation).

This week's Tech Talk highlights the S&P 500's proximity to resistance levels, indicating a potential short-term pause/pullback. The achieved 4600 target came with a potential bearish "Outside Reversal Day" pattern. Gasoline's positive momentum remains bullish. Market trends may develop over months, not days.

Explore the recorded Technical Analysis webinar with Art Huprich, CMT. Gain insights into equity markets, supply-demand dynamics, rotation opportunities, and more. Watch the replay to enhance your financial expertise!

S&P 500's uptrend faces potential selling pressure and resistance. Earnings season adds uncertainty. Monitor NYSE Advance-Decline Line, seasonality, SP500 support, US Dollar Index, banks, and treasury yield index. Headwinds building.

Domestic equity market proxies ended lower last week. Within the context of the SPX’s uptrend, large cap growth/technology/SPX’s short-term momentum has indeed started to churn.

Risk management model recommends full exposure to equity-sensitive fixed-income sectors: U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes. Fixed income markets show mixed performance, with short-term yields rising and long-term yields cooling. Sector allocations remain stable, with slight changes in weights.

Improved Catastrophic Stop model recommends fully invested allocation. Global markets show positive growth, with Japan and Australia overweighted. Germany and the UK underweighted. Explore opportunities in Mexico, South Korea, Poland, Taiwan, and India. Models use various indicators for objective analysis.

Improved NDR Catastrophic Stop model enters July fully invested. S&P 500 gains, led by cyclical sectors. Technology remains largest position, while Industrials and Consumer Staples change. Sector model indicates mixed leadership, overweighting IT, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Health Care, Utilities.