The Catastrophic Stop model declined to 60.7% from 67.9% last week. The Internal Composite is bullish, and the External Composite is neutral. The Catastrophic Stop model has moved closer to neutral, setting it up to generate a sell signal more quickly if conditions warrant.

The S&P 500 uptrend continues. Yet, with domestic elections and geopolitical jitters plus a recalibration of Fed interest rate cut expectations, select equity indices, sector proxies, and well-known Large Cap stocks have been sloshing around for months.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 67.9% from 62.9% last week. The Internal Composite is bullish, and the External Composite is neutral.

Election uncertainty, elevated geopolitical tensions, and pockets of excess optimism could lead to a price pullback or time correction, setting the stage for a post-election rally.  

The Catastrophic Stop model declined to 62.9% from 72.9% last week. The Internal Composite is bullish, and the External Composite is neutral.

The Catastrophic Stop model declined to 72.9% from 82.9% last week. The Internal and External Composites are bullish.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 82.9% from 65.7% last week. The Internal and External Composites are bullish.

Our Smart Sector models, which update today, recommended overweighting China at the beginning of the month. Despite election worries, when we combine our Smart Sector strategies with our weight-of-the-evidence approach, the Bulls remain in control.

The Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged this week at 65.7%. The Internal Composite is bullish, and the External Composite is neutral. The model continues to support a fully invested position. With the S&P 500 near all-time highs, the model has correctly maintained a risk-on stance YTD.

The Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged this week at 65.7%. The Internal Composite is bullish, and the External Composite is neutral.

Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 (SPX) experienced its worst weekly decline in 2024. Last week, SPX experienced its best weekly gain in 2024. Similar reversals have been more bullish than bearish. Equity’s reaction to the Fed’s interest rate decision doesn’t appear to change that belief.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 65.7% from 55.7% last week. The Internal Composite (price-related indicators) is positive, and the External Composite remains neutral.

Fed watchers and prognosticators continue to lather on about whether the Fed is behind the curve and whether it should cut 25 basis points (bps) or 50bps on 9/18/24. At Day Hagan, we rely on our models and charts, not opinion, for guidance.

The Catastrophic Stop model currently sits at 55.7%. The Internal and External composites are neutral.

Despite favorable trend and breadth evidence, we recognize that seasonality may introduce periods of weakness as September progresses. Our immediate focus will be on the market’s reaction to tomorrow’s employment report and the FOMC decision slated for 9.18.24. We remain focused on risk management at current levels.

The Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 48.6%. The Internal and External composites are neutral.

Following the “Powell Pivot” last week, Wall Street continued to favor the Non-Index Movers (non-growth/technology/value type) over the Index Movers (large cap growth/technology). Consequently, we have a lot to focus on.

The Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 48.6%.  The Internal and External Composites are neutral.

Despite the equity market rally, which went up faster than expected, the S&P 500’s uptrend is intact but overbought (condition, not a signal). For 2024 the Catastrophic Stop model has been positive, and we are aligned accordingly. If our models shift bearish, we will raise cash.

The Catastrophic Stop model declined to 48.6% from 53.6% last week. The Internal and External composites are neutral.