The Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 48.6%. The Internal and External composites are neutral.

Following the “Powell Pivot” last week, Wall Street continued to favor the Non-Index Movers (non-growth/technology/value type) over the Index Movers (large cap growth/technology). Consequently, we have a lot to focus on.

The Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 48.6%.  The Internal and External Composites are neutral.

Despite the equity market rally, which went up faster than expected, the S&P 500’s uptrend is intact but overbought (condition, not a signal). For 2024 the Catastrophic Stop model has been positive, and we are aligned accordingly. If our models shift bearish, we will raise cash.

The Catastrophic Stop model declined to 48.6% from 53.6% last week. The Internal and External composites are neutral.

The market might retest last week’s lows after its rebound, but with the upcoming economic data and potential developments in the news cycle this week, it’s difficult to predict which way it will go.

The Catastrophic Stop model declined slightly to 53.6% from 60.7% last week. The Internal and External composites are neutral.

Wall Street experienced its own version of Hurricane Debby due to sector and stock rotation, position unwind, seasonal headwind, economic and EPS growth concerns, geopolitical concerns, machine trading, liquidity concerns, and widening credit spreads (Figure 1).

We are monitoring economic growth closely, as that is the driving force behind the recent decline (among myriad other factors). The quantitative, unemotional outlook confirms that economic growth is decelerating but still positive overall. Inflation pressures continue to diminish. The model is positive, and we are aligned with the message. If our models shift to bearish levels, we will raise cash.

The Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 82.9%, the same level as last week. The majority of Internal and External indicators remain bullish.

This presentation discusses the current financial market trends, stock market corrections, Small Caps, sentiment, The Great Unwind, International and Emerging markets, seasonality, and more. Financial advisors are encouraged to watch this presentation replay for a comprehensive understanding of the market trends and indicators.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 82.9% from 77.9% last week. The Internal and External composites are bullish.

The Catastrophic Stop model declined to 77.9% from 82.9% last week. The Internal and External composites are bullish.

Wall Street veteran Ralph Acampora has said, “Rotation is the lifeblood of any bull market,” an apt description of the domestic equity market last week.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 82.9% from 77.9% last week. The Internal and External composites are bullish.

The “Index Movers” continue to play a major role in driving the Large Cap Growth/Technology-oriented domestic equity market indices higher, pretty much at the expense of everything else. Consequently, what price levels can help us discern when a turn lower by the Index Movers leads to a reversal by Large Cap Growth indices and another time or price correction—relative or absolute basis?

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 77.9% from 70.7% last week. The Internal and External Composites are positive.

As we recognize and celebrate the birth of our wonderful nation later this week, I think back to one of the things I have learned over four-plus decades on Wall Street.

This presentation discusses the current financial market trends, the Catastrophic Stop Model, global markets, sentiment, sector allocations, the U.S. dollar, index movers, seasonality, and more. Financial advisors are encouraged to watch this presentation replay for a comprehensive understanding of the market trends and indicators.

The price trend of the “Technology-weighted” S&P 500 continues higher (Figure 3). Simultaneously, several breadth measures within the Technology sector have deteriorated, and I have already noted and likely over-discussed the internal deterioration beneath the broader domestic equity market.