Given the conflicting messaging of the Catastrophic Stop model increasing while the Daily Trading Sentiment Composite reflects near-term caution, we executed the November 20 signal by shifting 25% of the cash holding into equities. We are looking to redeploy the remaining 25% cash holding as sentiment eases or longer-term breadth thrust measures confirm the near-term signals.

The sector model moved to a more cyclical bias during the month. Entering December, the sector model is overweight: Materials, Communication Services, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary. The model is neutral on Consumer Staples, Information Technology, Real Estate, and Utilities.

The Catastrophic Stop model declined from last month and it now recommends raising cash. Entering November, the non-U.S. equity Core model overweighted Australia, Japan, and France, while underweighting the U.K., China, and Canada. The Explore model favored Brazil, India, Israel, Turkey, and Taiwan.

Entering November, the fixed income allocation strategy continued to favor mixed leadership. The model is overweight U.S. Long-Term Treasurys, International Investment Grade, and U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. The model is underweight U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, and U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities.

Entering November, the sector model remained with a mix of cyclical and defensive leadership. The sector model is overweight Communication Services, Utilities, Materials, and Industrials. Information Technology dropped to market weight, while Energy and Real Estate improved to market weight. Health Care and Financials joined Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples at underweight.

The NDR Catastrophic Stop Sell model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high risk periods for the equity market. The model deteriorated from last month but entered October with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation.

The risk management model seeks to reduce exposure to fixed income sectors most sensitive to equity drawdowns. The risk management model deteriorated from last month but entered October recommending full model exposure to areas most sensitive to equity markets: U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes.

The NDR Catastrophic Stop Sell model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high-risk periods for the equity market. The model deteriorated from last month but entered October with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation.

Entering September, the fixed income allocation strategy remains with a risk-on message and suggests no rebalancing from the month prior. The model remains overweight U.S. Treasurys, U.S. High-Yield Bonds, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, Emerging Market Bonds, and underweight U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, and Floating Rate Notes.

The Catastrophic Stop model declined from last month, but it continues to recommend a fully invested allocation. Entering September, the non-U.S. equity Core model overweighted Australia, Germany, Japan, and China while underweighting the U.K., Canada, France, and Switzerland. The Explore model favored Poland, Mexico, Peru, Spain, and India.

Sector leadership remained mixed during the month. Entering September, the sector model is overweight Information Technology, Communication Services, & Utilities. Health Care, Industrials, & Financials moved to market weight, while Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Materials, & Real Estate are underweight.

Global markets gained with emerging markets performing well. Global PMI slowed but remains in expansion. Non-U.S. equity Core model overweight on China, Australia, Germany, Canada; Explore model favors Chile, India, South Korea, Sweden, Taiwan.

Risk management model remains unchanged, advising full exposure to U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes. Steady indicators support this allocation.

The NDR Catastrophic Stop Update: NDR's model recommends fully invested equity allocation in August. Market gains continue, led by cyclical value sectors. The model remains a mix of cyclical and defensive sectors.

Risk management model recommends full exposure to equity-sensitive fixed-income sectors: U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes. Fixed income markets show mixed performance, with short-term yields rising and long-term yields cooling. Sector allocations remain stable, with slight changes in weights.

Improved Catastrophic Stop model recommends fully invested allocation. Global markets show positive growth, with Japan and Australia overweighted. Germany and the UK underweighted. Explore opportunities in Mexico, South Korea, Poland, Taiwan, and India. Models use various indicators for objective analysis.

Improved NDR Catastrophic Stop model enters July fully invested. S&P 500 gains, led by cyclical sectors. Technology remains largest position, while Industrials and Consumer Staples change. Sector model indicates mixed leadership, overweighting IT, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Health Care, Utilities.

The NDR Catastrophic Sell Stop model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high-risk periods for the equity market. The model deteriorated from last month but entered June with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation.

The risk management model (chart at right) seeks to reduce exposure to fixed income sectors most sensitive to equity drawdowns (U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes) during periods of market stress.

The NDR Catastrophic Sell Stop model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high risk periods for the equity market. The model (chart at right) deteriorated from last month but entered June with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation.