Between early December 2024 and early 2025, we highlighted a negative Advance-Decline Line non-confirmation and expected price volatility to continue. We still feel the same. Equity market price volatility will continue deeper into Q1, at a minimum.

The Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 72.9%, the same level as last week. On average, the model’s technical indicators remain bullish, and the external indicators are neutral.

Internal measuring tools have moved to be supportive, yet resistance stands, and a negative Advance-Decline Line condition remains. Meanwhile, the Catastrophic Stop Loss model and U.S. High Yield Index OAS-Credit Spreads support the S&P 500’s uptrend.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 72.9% from 65.9% last week. Internal measures (price-related indicators) are bullish, and External measures (indicators calling the operating environment) are neutral.

Stocks bounced sharply higher once support was tested and held, further supported by oversold conditions and relatively favorable inflation reports. Internal measuring tools moved sharply in the right direction. Broader participation and follow-through are now needed.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased slightly to 65.7% from 60.7% last week. Internal measures (price-related indicators) are bullish, and External measures (indicators calling the operating environment) are neutral.

Worries over fiscal discipline, immigration policies, the recent strong employment report, and several other issues drove the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 4.80%. When the Fed started lowering interest rates on 9.18.24, the 10-year yield stood at 3.70%. Who’s missing what?

The Catastrophic Stop model declined to 60.7% from 67.9% last week as the MSCI ACWI Breadth Factor reverted to a sell signal. The Internal Composite is bullish, and the External Composite is neutral.

The oft-discussed price volatility, in both directions, came to the forefront as 2024 ended and 2025 began. With the ongoing global and domestic political backdrop, “tariffs, taxes, inflation,” negative non-confirmations, and interest rates, the odds favor it continues.  

The Catastrophic Stop model improved to 67.9% from 60.7% last week due to the MSCI ACWI Breadth Factor shifting to positive. The Internal Composite is bullish, and the External Composite is neutral.

The Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 60.7%, the same reading as last week. The Internal Composite is bullish, and the External Composite is neutral.

The Catastrophic Stop model declined to 60.7% from 72.9% last week due to High-Yield and Emerging Market bond breadth shifting from bullish to neutral on 12-18-2024. The Internal Composite is bullish, and the External Composite is neutral.

With the Catastrophic Stop Loss Model still favorably positioned (when it reverses and recommends increasing cash, we will follow) and favorable seasonals into year-end, the S&P 500’s price trend remains intact. However, many internal measuring tools are vulnerable.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 72.9% from 67.9% last week due to the sentiment composite shifting from bearish to neutral. The Internal Composite is bullish, and the External Composite is neutral.

During Q324, with the S&P 500 near 5700, we highlighted 5900 and 6100 price targets. SPX printed 6099.97 last week. The Catastrophic Stop model remains bullish, but resistance, negative A/D Line divergences again, and a lot of bullishness suggest volatility in the next few weeks.

The Catastrophic Stop model improved to 67.9% from 60.7% last week. The Internal Composite is bullish, and the External Composite is neutral.

In November, domestic equity market indices—including capitalization, equal-weight, small, mid-, large cap, value, and growth—closed higher. With complacency (excessive optimism) building and a potentially sloppy start to 2025, price momentum is supportive until the month’s end.

The Catastrophic Stop model is unchanged from last week’s level of 60.7%. The Internal Composite is bullish, and the External Composite is neutral.

Near-term resistance exists within a bullish price channel and as negative A/D Line divergences are resolved. The Bulls remain in control, but we’re watching for signs that post-election market action is part of a transition to a choppier 2025.

The Catastrophic Stop model increased to 60.7% from 55.7% last week. The Internal Composite is bullish, and the External Composite is neutral.