The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains at 77.3%. A 77.3% reading is a "stay fully invested, no major defensive action required" signal — comfortably above the action thresholds and consistent with a constructive risk environment. The model would need to drop roughly 37+ points (to below 40% for two consecutive days) before triggering the Catastrophic Stop signal.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model decreased to 77.3%, from 86.4% last week. The decline was driven by High-yield bond breadth shifting from bullish to negative. At 77.3%, the model continues to indicate that investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model increased to 86.36%, up from 81.82% last week. The improvement was driven by an intermediate-term trend/momentum factor reversing from negative to neutral.

This follows the Stock/Bond factor turning positive two weeks ago, the narrowing in High-Yield option-adjusted spreads discussed three weeks ago, and the improvement in both equity and High-Yield bond breadth (even with Friday’s weak participation at new all-time highs—more below). The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model rose to 81.82%, up from 63.64% last week. The improvement was driven by the Stock/Bond factor reversing to a buy signal for equities, along with stronger short-term measures of economic activity. This follows the narrowing in High-Yield option-adjusted spreads discussed two weeks ago and the previously noted improvements in both equity and High-Yield bond breadth.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model increased to 63.64% from 59.09% last week. The increase was due to High-Yield option-adjusted spreads narrowing over the last week. The model indicates that investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model increased to 59.09% from 45.45% last week. The increase was due to improvements in Equity and High-Yield breadth indicators. (Note: Both measures would return to sell signals should the markets reverse lower.) The model indicates that investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model declined to 45.45% from 50.0% last week, driven by a widening of high-yield option-adjusted spreads, which points to building market stress. However, the model remains above the critical 45% threshold, indicating that investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model level declined to 50.0% as the intermediate-term trend factor turned negative. The overall model remains above the key 45% threshold, indicating that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model, as of today, has increased to 68.18%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model, as of today, has increased to 68.18%. The model indicates that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 59.09%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 59.09%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure. Many of our indicators are situated near neutral levels. If the current decline (the SPX is just 2.3% below the all-time high) shows signs of becoming significant, our indicators are poised to signal risk-off.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 59.09%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 59.09%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure. Yesterday’s selloff did not significantly impact the model. Keep in mind, the model is designed to identify potentially large moves, not dips or minor corrections.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 59.09%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model held steady at 59.09%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model declined to 59.09% from 68.18% last week. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains steady at 68.18%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains steady at 68.18%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.

The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains steady at 68.18%. The model continues to indicate that investors should maintain their benchmark equity exposure.