Entering December, the fixed income allocation strategy shifted to risk-on leadership. The model is relatively overweight: U.S. High-Yield, Long-Term Treasurys, Short-Term TIPS, U.S. Investment Grade Corporates, International Investment Grade, and Emerging Market Bonds. The model is relatively underweight in U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities and U.S. Investment-Grade Corporations.

Given the conflicting messaging of the Catastrophic Stop model increasing while the Daily Trading Sentiment Composite reflects near-term caution, we executed the November 20 signal by shifting 25% of the cash holding into equities. We are looking to redeploy the remaining 25% cash holding as sentiment eases or longer-term breadth thrust measures confirm the near-term signals.

The sector model moved to a more cyclical bias during the month. Entering December, the sector model is overweight: Materials, Communication Services, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary. The model is neutral on Consumer Staples, Information Technology, Real Estate, and Utilities.

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). Using our consistent and differentiated investment approach, the DH Smart Value Portfolio is focused on outperformance, seeking higher total returns with lower volatility.

The Catastrophic Stop model declined from last month and it now recommends raising cash. Entering November, the non-U.S. equity Core model overweighted Australia, Japan, and France, while underweighting the U.K., China, and Canada. The Explore model favored Brazil, India, Israel, Turkey, and Taiwan.

Entering November, the fixed income allocation strategy continued to favor mixed leadership. The model is overweight U.S. Long-Term Treasurys, International Investment Grade, and U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. The model is underweight U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, and U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities.

Entering November, the sector model remained with a mix of cyclical and defensive leadership. The sector model is overweight Communication Services, Utilities, Materials, and Industrials. Information Technology dropped to market weight, while Energy and Real Estate improved to market weight. Health Care and Financials joined Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples at underweight.

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

The NDR Catastrophic Stop Sell model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high risk periods for the equity market. The model deteriorated from last month but entered October with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation.

The risk management model seeks to reduce exposure to fixed income sectors most sensitive to equity drawdowns. The risk management model deteriorated from last month but entered October recommending full model exposure to areas most sensitive to equity markets: U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes.

The NDR Catastrophic Stop Sell model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high-risk periods for the equity market. The model deteriorated from last month but entered October with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation.

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

Year-to-date, through the end of August, the portfolio was up +6.88%* net of fees vs. the benchmark Russell 1000 Value Index Total Return, +5.79%. For the three-year period from 8-31-2020 through 8-31-2023, the portfolio gained at a +13.38%* annualized rate (net of fees) vs. +11.39% for our benchmark.

Entering September, the fixed income allocation strategy remains with a risk-on message and suggests no rebalancing from the month prior. The model remains overweight U.S. Treasurys, U.S. High-Yield Bonds, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, Emerging Market Bonds, and underweight U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, and Floating Rate Notes.

The Catastrophic Stop model declined from last month, but it continues to recommend a fully invested allocation. Entering September, the non-U.S. equity Core model overweighted Australia, Germany, Japan, and China while underweighting the U.K., Canada, France, and Switzerland. The Explore model favored Poland, Mexico, Peru, Spain, and India.

Sector leadership remained mixed during the month. Entering September, the sector model is overweight Information Technology, Communication Services, & Utilities. Health Care, Industrials, & Financials moved to market weight, while Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Materials, & Real Estate are underweight.

Global markets gained with emerging markets performing well. Global PMI slowed but remains in expansion. Non-U.S. equity Core model overweight on China, Australia, Germany, Canada; Explore model favors Chile, India, South Korea, Sweden, Taiwan.

Risk management model remains unchanged, advising full exposure to U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes. Steady indicators support this allocation.

The NDR Catastrophic Stop Update: NDR's model recommends fully invested equity allocation in August. Market gains continue, led by cyclical value sectors. The model remains a mix of cyclical and defensive sectors.

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation).