Day Hagan Research

Day Hagan’s Research is a resource for U.S. and global financial market research and portfolio insights to help fuel client relationships and grow your practice. Read market commentary and research to help you deliver on your clients’ financial goals.

Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2024

Entering February, the strategy continued to favor risk-on leadership but did rebalance. The model remained overweight (versus the AGG benchmark), U.S. Treasuries, High Yield, & Emerging Market Bonds. The portfolio is market weight TIPS & Mortgage-Backed Securities & underweight U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. Investment Grade, International Investment Grade, & International Bonds.

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Smart Sector, Strategy Update Lee Towle Smart Sector, Strategy Update Lee Towle

Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2024

The sector model remained with a cyclical bias during the month, but there were some changes. Entering February, Financials and Communication Services improved and joined Information Technology and Health Care at overweight. Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, and Real Estate are Neutral. Materials, Industrials, and Utilities are underweight.

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Smart Value, Strategy Update Lee Towle Smart Value, Strategy Update Lee Towle

Day Hagan Smart Value Strategy Update February 2024

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

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Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2024

Entering January, the fixed income allocation strategy shifted to risk-on leadership. The model is relatively overweight: U.S. High-Yield, Long-Term Treasurys, Short-Term TIPS, U.S. Investment Grade Corporates, International Investment Grade, and Emerging Market Bonds. The model is relatively underweight in U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities and U.S. Investment-Grade Corporations.

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Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2024

The Catastrophic Stop model improved from last month, as it recommends a fully invested allocation. Entering January, the non-U.S. equity Core model overweighted Canada, Australia, and Germany while underweighting the U.K., China, France, and Switzerland. The Explore model favored Mexico, the Netherlands, South Africa, Poland, and Turkey.

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Smart Sector, Strategy Update Lee Towle Smart Sector, Strategy Update Lee Towle

Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2024

The sector model remained with a cyclical bias during the month, but there were sev¬eral changes. Entering January, the sector model is overweight Energy, Real Estate, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary. Materials and Financials are underweight. Information Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Staples, and Health Care are market weight.

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Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2023

Entering December, the fixed income allocation strategy shifted to risk-on leadership. The model is relatively overweight: U.S. High-Yield, Long-Term Treasurys, Short-Term TIPS, U.S. Investment Grade Corporates, International Investment Grade, and Emerging Market Bonds. The model is relatively underweight in U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities and U.S. Investment-Grade Corporations.

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Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2023

Given the conflicting messaging of the Catastrophic Stop model increasing while the Daily Trading Sentiment Composite reflects near-term caution, we executed the November 20 signal by shifting 25% of the cash holding into equities. We are looking to redeploy the remaining 25% cash holding as sentiment eases or longer-term breadth thrust measures confirm the near-term signals.

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Smart Value, Strategy Update Lee Towle Smart Value, Strategy Update Lee Towle

Day Hagan Smart Value Strategy Update December 2023

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). Using our consistent and differentiated investment approach, the DH Smart Value Portfolio is focused on outperformance, seeking higher total returns with lower volatility.

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Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2023

The Catastrophic Stop model declined from last month and it now recommends raising cash. Entering November, the non-U.S. equity Core model overweighted Australia, Japan, and France, while underweighting the U.K., China, and Canada. The Explore model favored Brazil, India, Israel, Turkey, and Taiwan.

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Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2023

Entering November, the fixed income allocation strategy continued to favor mixed leadership. The model is overweight U.S. Long-Term Treasurys, International Investment Grade, and U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. The model is underweight U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, and U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities.

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Smart Sector, Strategy Update Lee Towle Smart Sector, Strategy Update Lee Towle

Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2023

Entering November, the sector model remained with a mix of cyclical and defensive leadership. The sector model is overweight Communication Services, Utilities, Materials, and Industrials. Information Technology dropped to market weight, while Energy and Real Estate improved to market weight. Health Care and Financials joined Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples at underweight.

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Smart Value, Strategy Update Lee Towle Smart Value, Strategy Update Lee Towle

Day Hagan Smart Value Strategy Update November 2023

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

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Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2023

The risk management model seeks to reduce exposure to fixed income sectors most sensitive to equity drawdowns. The risk management model deteriorated from last month but entered October recommending full model exposure to areas most sensitive to equity markets: U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes.

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Smart Value, Strategy Update Lee Towle Smart Value, Strategy Update Lee Towle

Day Hagan Smart Value Strategy Update October 2023

The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.

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