Day Hagan Research
Day Hagan’s Research is a resource for U.S. and global financial market research and portfolio insights to help fuel client relationships and grow your practice. Read market commentary and research to help you deliver on your clients’ financial goals.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2024
Entering February, the non-U.S. equity Core model overweighted Canada and Germany. Japan was neutral, while the U.K., China, France, Australia, and Switzerland were underweight. The Explore model favored Brazil, Peru, Spain, Poland, and the Philippines.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2024
Entering February, the strategy continued to favor risk-on leadership but did rebalance. The model remained overweight (versus the AGG benchmark), U.S. Treasuries, High Yield, & Emerging Market Bonds. The portfolio is market weight TIPS & Mortgage-Backed Securities & underweight U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. Investment Grade, International Investment Grade, & International Bonds.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2024
The sector model remained with a cyclical bias during the month, but there were some changes. Entering February, Financials and Communication Services improved and joined Information Technology and Health Care at overweight. Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, and Real Estate are Neutral. Materials, Industrials, and Utilities are underweight.
Day Hagan Smart Value Strategy Update February 2024
The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2024
Entering January, the fixed income allocation strategy shifted to risk-on leadership. The model is relatively overweight: U.S. High-Yield, Long-Term Treasurys, Short-Term TIPS, U.S. Investment Grade Corporates, International Investment Grade, and Emerging Market Bonds. The model is relatively underweight in U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities and U.S. Investment-Grade Corporations.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2024
The Catastrophic Stop model improved from last month, as it recommends a fully invested allocation. Entering January, the non-U.S. equity Core model overweighted Canada, Australia, and Germany while underweighting the U.K., China, France, and Switzerland. The Explore model favored Mexico, the Netherlands, South Africa, Poland, and Turkey.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2024
The sector model remained with a cyclical bias during the month, but there were sev¬eral changes. Entering January, the sector model is overweight Energy, Real Estate, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary. Materials and Financials are underweight. Information Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Staples, and Health Care are market weight.
Day Hagan Smart Value Strategy Update January 2024
The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), & trading w/ considerable margins of safety (valuation).
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2023
Entering December, the fixed income allocation strategy shifted to risk-on leadership. The model is relatively overweight: U.S. High-Yield, Long-Term Treasurys, Short-Term TIPS, U.S. Investment Grade Corporates, International Investment Grade, and Emerging Market Bonds. The model is relatively underweight in U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities and U.S. Investment-Grade Corporations.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2023
Given the conflicting messaging of the Catastrophic Stop model increasing while the Daily Trading Sentiment Composite reflects near-term caution, we executed the November 20 signal by shifting 25% of the cash holding into equities. We are looking to redeploy the remaining 25% cash holding as sentiment eases or longer-term breadth thrust measures confirm the near-term signals.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2023
The sector model moved to a more cyclical bias during the month. Entering December, the sector model is overweight: Materials, Communication Services, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary. The model is neutral on Consumer Staples, Information Technology, Real Estate, and Utilities.
Day Hagan Smart Value Strategy Update December 2023
The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). Using our consistent and differentiated investment approach, the DH Smart Value Portfolio is focused on outperformance, seeking higher total returns with lower volatility.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2023
The Catastrophic Stop model declined from last month and it now recommends raising cash. Entering November, the non-U.S. equity Core model overweighted Australia, Japan, and France, while underweighting the U.K., China, and Canada. The Explore model favored Brazil, India, Israel, Turkey, and Taiwan.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2023
Entering November, the fixed income allocation strategy continued to favor mixed leadership. The model is overweight U.S. Long-Term Treasurys, International Investment Grade, and U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. The model is underweight U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, and U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2023
Entering November, the sector model remained with a mix of cyclical and defensive leadership. The sector model is overweight Communication Services, Utilities, Materials, and Industrials. Information Technology dropped to market weight, while Energy and Real Estate improved to market weight. Health Care and Financials joined Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples at underweight.
Day Hagan Smart Value Strategy Update November 2023
The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2023
The NDR Catastrophic Stop Sell model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high risk periods for the equity market. The model deteriorated from last month but entered October with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2023
The risk management model seeks to reduce exposure to fixed income sectors most sensitive to equity drawdowns. The risk management model deteriorated from last month but entered October recommending full model exposure to areas most sensitive to equity markets: U.S. High Yield, Emerging Markets, U.S. Investment Grade, and Floating Rate Notes.
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2023
The NDR Catastrophic Stop Sell model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high-risk periods for the equity market. The model deteriorated from last month but entered October with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation.
Day Hagan Smart Value Strategy Update October 2023
The DH Smart Value Portfolio continues to invest in companies producing excess returns through positive economic profitability, supported by solid balance sheets (quality), significant cash generation (profitability), and trading with considerable margins of safety (valuation). We believe these factors will continue to provide rational opportunities for the foreseeable future.