https://dayhagan.com/research daily 0.75 2026-03-12 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-march-10-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-03-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/49cfe5d4-e427-4484-9823-df4498ec87f5/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 10, 2026 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model remains constructive for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/814a331f-3ffd-451a-9c10-38781655ce70/Russell+3000+50-day+SMA+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 10, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Waning breadth is a yellow flag. Note that levels below 7% have often identified extreme oversold conditions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1d3933c3-66f3-4fa8-95c0-249c67e09cee/DH+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 10, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Sentiment is nearing levels of extreme pessimism. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6d76da74-7792-49ed-a0ec-47052501df2d/Performance+since++February+27.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 10, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The market holding up in the face of significant adversity is constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0b3bfe57-7493-48af-9c28-6f723487bf95/OAS.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 10, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Credit spreads are still relatively tight among investment-grade corporates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e0fbd3fc-fb22-4d3a-a050-a95a8a0eeb87/Brent+Crude+Oil+and+OVX.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 10, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: If the Iran conflict lasts less than a month or so, we see a resumption of the primary equity trend. Longer than that, and it gets dicey. One main reason: Many international regions import the majority of their energy needs. Japan, South Korea, India, and China account for 75% of oil and 59% of LNG flows through the strait. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d92b1a38-003a-4c1d-a47b-b6e26026bbe3/SP500+during+12+day+war.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 10, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The lessons from last year’s “12-day War” may prove instructive. Our constructive views hinge on the hostilities ending relatively quickly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/820afe0b-8d64-4e40-834b-b30f45298e21/volatility-target-equity-allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 10, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Based on the 10% Volatility Target Equity Allocation, equity positioning is neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6bfbc4f9-01ee-4f38-861e-d2f9548b2236/SP+500+Earnings+Growth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 10, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: As earnings go, so go the markets. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/edd1b248-2dd7-49af-948f-aad3f5edacf0/10+year+Treasury+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 10, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Rates not expected to spike higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ff59e5c9-d7ae-40aa-a7f3-1af390ecf23a/economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 10, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Economic release calendar. Source: Forexfactory.com https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-core-equity-strategy-update-march-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-03-11 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-march-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-03-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/431dc31c-381f-443e-9f91-afc23c7f9043/US+Treasuries.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 1: The increase in CDS rates hasn’t been enough to generate a sell signal as of this writing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e24d9397-97ef-4c8b-a397-82eaed5a56a6/US+TIPS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The increase in inflation expectations is constructive for TIPS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/88d9c90d-b468-4642-a28b-8ba0b72e2c11/US+Mortgage+backed+securities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Lower rates, including mortgage rates, are initially positive for MBS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3c34c0b2-221d-4d5e-928e-66c9ef8a554f/US+Floating+Rate+Notes.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Floating Rate Securities do not do well when equity volatility is moving higher from low levels. It can be interpreted as investors becoming more concerned about equity valuations. FLRNs (non-Treasury) are often issued by lower-quality companies. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/84ea7ac9-12e3-47be-90a8-7ccb058df93e/US+IG+Corporates.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: A weaker U.S. dollar, or expectations of such, can negatively impact fund flows from U.S. and foreign investors. Nonetheless, a reversal in this indicator back above the lower bracket would generate a buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ca95774d-d008-407e-b283-b96c163a71b2/US+High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Rising equity volatility has historically been negative for High-Yield bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1556083e-1cbf-495c-be52-b58dbed8c469/International+IG+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: This MACD trend indicator is currently positive, but the uptrend appears to be waning. Watching for a cross below. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7c3ca47e-dea2-47c5-a3f0-79f3fe553d60/Emerging+Market.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Strengthening commodity prices continue to support EM bonds. A reversal back below the longer-term moving average would generate a sell signal for this indicator. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ffd42907-cc46-4b8a-adf7-973d698164aa/day-hagan-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-january-30-2026.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested fixed-income position (relative to the benchmark). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. Hypothetical and historical past performance is not indicative of future results. There can be no assurance that any investment or strategy will achieve its objectives or avoid substantial losses or have comparable results. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not a prediction, projection or guarantee of future performance. Hypothetical results do not reflect actual trading, were derived using the benefit of hindsight, and may not reflect material economic and market events. Actual results vary and depend on many factors and subject to risk and uncertainties. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/feb0274b-deea-4152-9b11-ab7ae792f268/Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Should the Sentiment Composite move back above the 70 level, we would view it as a negative development and a potential short-term headwind. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-march-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-03-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cf463542-0743-4149-9baf-076c0f4c7693/Australia.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Australia’s relative earnings yield is supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/10839c98-b769-4213-b2f2-cb08273c5b8d/Canada.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Canadian dollar showing modest strength versus the U.S. dollar. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1320a182-74a7-4762-831a-fe6787589500/China.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Negative momentum. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6c71ecbf-4c2b-4fad-b483-ef13262f86c6/France.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: International regions continue to attract fund flows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f986eae6-6d9e-4e97-8958-2efd19888e3e/Germany.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: German manufacturing confidence continues to roll over. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7ead90df-01d9-4b13-9ef2-687d6f4c0fc9/japan-relative-strength-.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Earnings growth expectations continue to increase. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/31d2827d-bffa-44ec-ab65-7ff4d3c9d475/Switzerland.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Last month, we wrote that relative momentum was picking up for Swiss equities. This month, it appears to be the opposite, with momentum potentially at a peak. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a8287c34-493e-46a4-8016-fbe2d2209f25/UK.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: U.K. OAS spreads have increased, indicating caution building. While not at alarming levels, we’re watching these developments closely. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ab622c90-f5cb-472b-a90e-903cf664d8a4/day-hagan-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-january-30-2026.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. Hypothetical and historical past performance is not indicative of future results. There can be no assurance that any investment or strategy will achieve its objectives or avoid substantial losses or have comparable results. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not a prediction, projection or guarantee of future performance. Hypothetical results do not reflect actual trading, were derived using the benefit of hindsight, and may not reflect material economic and market events. Actual results vary and depend on many factors and subject to risk and uncertainties. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/feb0274b-deea-4152-9b11-ab7ae792f268/Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Should the Sentiment Composite move back above the 70 level, we would view it as a negative development and a potential short-term headwind. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-march-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-03-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c1debf94-633e-4c51-9e86-838249d8e352/Consumer+Discretionary.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 1: The Consumer Discretionary sector is in minor oversold territory. A reversal back above the lower SD bracket would generate a buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a6e90266-8a64-423f-8de9-e16b2f0a5e05/Consumer+Staples.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Expanding net new highs are supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/46969430-f9e5-4402-ab01-4e35c7982d1a/Communication+Services.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Communication Services showing signs of a reversal from overbought conditions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d44cb9f8-af8b-4bc0-a85e-2b1a9172bfc0/Energy.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The energy sector is benefiting from geopolitical upheavals. Nonetheless, inventories are accumulating. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/015f0f25-e5c4-4aba-8bd4-8117cce2aae9/Financials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Relatively tight credit spreads are constructive for the Financials sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c15190c4-f59f-4032-80bb-f797469d2551/Health+Care.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Health Care breadth appears to be taking a breather. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b3d38ed3-ce15-49eb-b588-910d6b6811d7/Industrials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Rising commodity prices continue to support the Industrials sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b2b2708a-fead-427d-826a-d883c7abfae8/Information+Technology.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Short-term OBOS indicators are now generally oversold. A reversal above the lower SD bracket, below, would generate a buy signal. Note that intermediate-term measures have more work to do before reaching significant oversold conditions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9e44c420-6e82-4075-8679-aa23d431a30c/Materials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Natural Gas futures show signs of reversal. May lower input costs. Usually, a near-term tailwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dedae1d9-258a-4d36-9cd3-de8d879208b5/Real+estate.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Long-term mortgage rates recently broke below the psychologically impactful 6% level. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9edce72b-81c3-4130-a60f-88d2978ebc1e/Utilities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Higher crude oil prices can imply stronger economic activity, higher energy demand, or geopolitical upheaval, all of which would benefit the defensive utilities sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b023abd7-cb0e-451b-a14e-eecf77115821/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. Hypothetical and historical past performance is not indicative of future results. There can be no assurance that any investment or strategy will achieve its objectives or avoid substantial losses or have comparable results. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not a prediction, projection, or guarantee of future performance.  Hypothetical results do not reflect actual trading, were derived using the benefit of hindsight, and may not reflect material economic and market events.  Actual results vary and depend on many factors and subject to risk and uncertainties. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/feb0274b-deea-4152-9b11-ab7ae792f268/Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Should the Sentiment Composite move back above the 70 level, we would view it as a negative development and a potential short-term headwind. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-march-3-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-03-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/56bb9247-aff5-439f-aa99-57e403d98fd2/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 3, 2026 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model remains constructive for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d44050ba-7193-4dea-9846-aca86f654ffe/Baltic+Dry+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 3, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Other measures of economic activity remain constructive, including recent U.S. Manufacturing PMIs, Services PMIs, Industrial Production, and Unemployment Claims. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/83da5748-3954-447c-9cb6-b47029d28873/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 3, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Sentiment is neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8eababa9-e1c8-4594-92fe-541f4547cfac/Hedgers+Combo+Sentimentrader.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 3, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: More hedging has often stabilized downturns. (Chart through 2-24-2026, likely to be higher now.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d92b1a38-003a-4c1d-a47b-b6e26026bbe3/SP500+during+12+day+war.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 3, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The lessons from last year’s “12-day War” may prove instructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0acfb372-76ca-42f4-b787-6e285b7109bf/WTI+Crude.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 3, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Rising crude prices are modestly inflationary, but not as much as one might think. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a3100139-5836-442b-b223-61155efd2e24/SP500+Forward+Earnings+Estimates.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 3, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: As earnings go, so go the markets. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/98859ea6-5640-4b05-b19b-b8337c179a47/DH+10-year+Fair+Value+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 3, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Rates not expected to spike higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3ad98edd-1d3f-4753-bad0-d09ad8e3753d/Economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 3, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Economic release calendar. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-february-18-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-02-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5b1acf79-b214-40d8-928c-0b955e9208a2/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. The current message remains constructive, indicating investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7e58fccd-1f45-4cef-abc3-a4bc229f688a/DH+Daily+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment is neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d5df6c7-e071-4865-b909-726a4f62e55a/VIX+around+spike+events.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: VIX spikes generally resolve in line with the broader direction of the prevailing primary trend. We currently view the primary trend as up. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1eccb89a-1724-4945-86fe-a3983199e20f/spx-gamma-exposure-strike.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Currently, the SPX level resides within a negative gamma condition. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dd058dc2-0d53-49c5-9c12-bac6ad9bf516/Economic+Policy+Uncertainty+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: While stock volatility has increased in the short term, economic policy uncertainty levels have been moving lower since peaking around Liberation Day. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/01a080e1-a384-4907-8b90-d2b1e765696b/2025+vs+2026.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: 2025 SPX performance vs. 2026 YTD. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ceab99dd-f0ba-442f-b61e-2c6ba7ef993b/Magnificent+7+vs+Quality.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Mag 7 vs. Quality Stocks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0ca33410-edb6-4990-82b3-829a2847bc29/iShares+Expanded+Tech+Software.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Stock prices retreated, but earnings forecasts increased. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9c3c13f4-0327-45c4-96b1-1fd50bd2a2e3/Microsoft+EVA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: MSFT from an EVA perspective. Not a recommendation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f8bb4d7c-a433-4177-8c76-2fa473ef7778/eva-margin-momenutum-share.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: ADBE from an EVA perspective. Not a recommendation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0c85634b-6447-4ad9-83da-dfc33df16860/SP500+with+Moving+Averages+VIX+and+RSI.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Short-term technical underpinnings OK. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7696bffc-a0a0-428f-8a10-b302df505ac6/10+Percent+Volatility+Target.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Neutral positioning implies that investors or strategies are neither meaningfully long nor short. Exposure is close to the benchmark or zero, so there is limited directional conviction embedded in prices. As a result, markets may be more responsive to new information, since fresh data or catalysts can more easily push positioning in either direction. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/48c3cc5f-f00b-4508-bb01-ef92f84afcaa/SP500+and+Forward+Earnings+Estimates.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Earnings trends remain supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/44219e54-70e0-412d-9424-2040d919a4da/Citigroup+Economic+Surprise+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 14: The Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates that U.S. economic releases are beating expectations, on average, over the past three months. Positive economic momentum. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b2abc853-7522-4b7f-aa75-9ec3ca837272/Treasury+Yield+and+Fed+Funds+Rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Bottom line, market and Fed expectations are largely aligned under this view. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d66acbf8-25ad-4674-9274-b7121fb7f1a8/SP500+Forward+PE+and+Subsequent+Returns.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 16: Supporting active management. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f372aa3c-faeb-4d99-89fa-a2eb1c74aadf/Economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 17: Economic release calendar. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-core-equity-strategy-update-february-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-03-10 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-february-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-02-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c0f09cff-7969-4ded-8df2-832fbe1d7028/Australia.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Rising gold prices are good for Australia. One of the few sources of support for the region. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5f5a7960-66dd-4091-ad3d-5973f473a12b/Canada.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Canada’s equity market is supported by longer-term trend indicators. However, if the indicator reverses back below the top bracket, it will generate a sell signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7214fc94-d812-4888-8e95-462171b3cf10/China.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Tight credit spreads imply a risk-on environment. This supports EM regions like China. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c1871d8a-200c-4652-8872-9be7761e99e4/France.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: France’s valuation trend continues to worsen relative to the other regions. Currently, there is a headwind. However, a reversal, confirmed by improving technicals, would likely result in an upgrade. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4af2ad88-81b4-416b-9063-eecf86ecee6d/Germany.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: German manufacturing confidence continues to roll over. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/58119a2e-726f-4e4c-b50d-972b2f6c56ca/Japan.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Yen weakness is positive for Japan—and the carry trade. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bff7b85f-7613-4e82-bd98-29a65e531a48/Switzerland.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Last month, we wrote that relative momentum was picking up for Swiss equities. This month, it appears to be the opposite, with momentum potentially at a peak. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/07a502d6-0b53-4032-8cad-527f56bcd456/UK.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: U.K. OAS spreads are showing the slightest signs of increasing. A large move would be negative, indicating investors are pricing in a potential financial disruption. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ab622c90-f5cb-472b-a90e-903cf664d8a4/day-hagan-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-january-30-2026.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. Hypothetical and historical past performance is not indicative of future results. There can be no assurance that any investment or strategy will achieve its objectives or avoid substantial losses or have comparable results. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not a prediction, projection or guarantee of future performance. Hypothetical results do not reflect actual trading, were derived using the benefit of hindsight, and may not reflect material economic and market events. Actual results vary and depend on many factors and subject to risk and uncertainties. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a7e6277a-e0c5-4157-9e79-943e2427031e/day-hagan-sentiment-january-30-2026.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Should the Sentiment Composite move back above the 70 level, we would view it as a negative development and a potential short-term headwind. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-february-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-02-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/afeaed96-fe19-4adc-bf9d-bc76f15e8486/US+Treasury.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Inflation expectations starting to creep higher. A potential headwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ea846c17-f24c-49ba-a7ec-a2d0148d9d7e/TIPS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: TIPS momentum continues to wane. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fa01f916-924e-45c7-822f-acf18dc5218a/MBS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Rising inflation expectations are also negative for MBS and have a potential negative impact on mortgage rates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b0aafeed-374c-4c73-8136-d148e068f002/Floating+Rate+Notes.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Floating Rate Securities tend to do well when volatility expands and then reverses from extremes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9980afb3-5122-4923-9e62-62f4464648e3/US+Investment+Grade+Corporates.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Increasing bond volatility is a headwind across most fixed income sectors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/96411927-6f95-40a7-be8e-04ff15bb9d2f/US+High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Small-cap uptrend continues to support high-yield bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9f057c44-db05-4840-97d2-c1cd748178b8/International+IG+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: CDS rates moving modestly higher is a caution flag. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aa60b1a4-fb31-4178-9873-96737b32bb1b/Emerging+Market+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Strengthening commodity prices have often supported EM bonds—to a point. A reversal back below the longer-term moving average would generate a sell signal for this indicator. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ffd42907-cc46-4b8a-adf7-973d698164aa/day-hagan-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-january-30-2026.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. Hypothetical and historical past performance is not indicative of future results. There can be no assurance that any investment or strategy will achieve its objectives or avoid substantial losses or have comparable results. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not a prediction, projection or guarantee of future performance. Hypothetical results do not reflect actual trading, were derived using the benefit of hindsight, and may not reflect material economic and market events. Actual results vary and depend on many factors and subject to risk and uncertainties. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/214191fc-c562-4c61-aaf2-2454d3c0ef25/day-hagan-sentiment-january-30-2026.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Should the Sentiment Composite move back above the 70 level, we would view it as a negative development and a potential short-term headwind. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-february-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-02-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/71b1e39c-110f-46cd-b813-e25570363079/Consumer+Discretionary.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Housing starts showing slight signs of improvement. Continued positive economic activity and a balanced labor market would support more housing activity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d6fece12-5288-4bc6-8101-688e3a52c6ac/Consumer+Staples.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Consumer Staples sector showing signs of a potential oversold reversal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ec1860e7-06af-4370-a1ae-acb00cf54b05/Communication+Services.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The trend remains a friend. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/56d45990-96f2-47aa-a0c2-5127b04e4cb6/Energy.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: A weaker U.S. dollar is constructive for the Energy sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/da1883f8-3b08-4694-be1d-95c5bf7b24ff/Financials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The Financials sector is approaching initial oversold levels. A buy signal would be generated if the indicator moves below the lower SD bracket and then reverses above it. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3ffa0983-8841-4f26-b06b-103e2d2b093e/Healthcare.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Health Care technicals, including momentum, are relatively weak. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bb0ff5fc-1f10-4dbe-a299-e9cd1bee0108/Industrials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Rising commodity prices often imply increasing economic activity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/39f2e26e-eda7-4a1a-a31f-756a5e3fd111/Information+Technology.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Rising market-based inflation expectations are a headwind for long-duration assets like those often found within the Information Technology sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/07c994c4-d37f-4326-84f8-ca17a16cd124/Materials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Silver’s parabolic rise has tangentially benefited the Materials sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6c7cffab-9fc0-4258-ab57-f05633dc1d5e/Real+Estate.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The Homebuilding sub-industry appears to be making a higher low. Stabilization above the long-term MACD would be positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e102b29c-e9ad-4946-bb4e-e8406e3e4fb2/Utilities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 11: A reversal back above the lower SD bracket would generate an additional buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d1882ac-160c-47f1-8299-88e91c622be2/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. Hypothetical and historical past performance is not indicative of future results. There can be no assurance that any investment or strategy will achieve its objectives or avoid substantial losses or have comparable results. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not a prediction, projection or guarantee of future performance. Hypothetical results do not reflect actual trading, were derived using the benefit of hindsight, and may not reflect material economic and market events. Actual results vary and depend on many factors and subject to risk and uncertainties. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c263d85d-d914-48f2-a985-f56094d2067b/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Should the Sentiment Composite move back above the 70 level, we would view it as a negative development and a potential short-term headwind. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-february-3-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-02-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cca56995-8a69-4f31-a1b9-73344a1eefce/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. The current message remains constructive, indicating investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/95676365-0718-4339-8dc8-78c2bf8a486d/DH+Daily+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment is neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/21be7dac-e02d-410c-85ed-d93f9cff67e3/SP500+and+VIX.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Volatility levels are increasing, but not yet in the danger zone. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c23759d6-480b-474f-abcf-6d9d98bd7678/treasury-volatility-index-2026.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: MOVE remains at the low end of its long-term range. (Source: StreetStats.com) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f0c5cdba-56c0-4f86-b371-b2bf9cda570c/SP500+constituents+above+50+and+200+day+MA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Breadth is OK for the broad market, not so good for the former generals. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ee7bf18b-2fe4-43a8-a347-dcfa97b6b21e/sp500-constituent-52-week-highs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: More stocks advancing to new highs than not. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2441b73d-cf24-40db-b931-b4c60d389131/Mag+7+vs+Quality+Stocks.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Quality gaining ground. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d8425ab4-b6db-43a8-8017-d41e391e20d5/Software+vs.+Semiconductors.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The performance differential between software and semis is extreme. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f7d53152-ef61-4430-8bb2-f4312fa99a34/SP500+Information+Technology+sector.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Semis taking a larger share of the sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aaa45e35-911b-4d67-b4b7-9e066cdfe4b1/SP500+and+Forward+Earnings+Estimates.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Earnings trends remain supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bd275e64-1bc7-4eae-9af7-5eecec0d80c9/Volatility+Target+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Positioning is now less elevated, but still high-neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bc462cbf-b5f0-44d2-8374-9180f05cabdf/DBMF+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 12: DBMF exposure to SPX is relatively low. Two ways to interpret this: 1) Systematic investors are nervous, and/or 2) Systematic investors are underinvested and are a potential source of demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a5151aca-eb89-4f05-8f0a-1eec1db992b3/COT+Emini.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Shorts are at high levels, based on this analysis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f5b47f1e-b918-4f8d-9752-f04b46e01cb7/SP500+and+OAS.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Credit spreads holding tight indicate that recent volatility isn’t likely to morph into a big bear market for equities. Note that, historically, when OAS credit spreads are below 1.00, max drawdowns have been more muted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f671c28f-eb34-4183-876b-4db3a93bdc0a/SPX++Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 15: SPX gamma condition is currently negative. Gamma flips to positive above 6,921.94. (Source: Barchart) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ffe02b73-dbdf-456f-b366-cd62afeb749a/Breakevens.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 16: At this point, we do not envision inflation breaking out to the upside. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8df8a27c-45b3-4474-9046-2d50a991a172/Consumer+Prices.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 17: Inflation is expected to ease in fits and starts. Recent housing data support lower inflation moving forward. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f299346d-10cf-4da0-bbea-bd9293a96c42/ISM+PMIs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 18: PMIs signal good growth but potentially may keep the Fed on the sidelines. Employment trends will be key, and recent data continues to support “low-hire, low-fire). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1d970298-9c37-4e09-bc5c-ffcbd69cc5fa/economic-realease-calendar-feb-2026.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 19: Economic release calendar. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-january-27-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-02-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b9c52046-2eeb-4e91-a894-21a8e3c706a0/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 27, 2026 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. The current message remains constructive, indicating investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/be5fee01-4360-4e15-b031-b664e70e5c5c/DH+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 27, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment is neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4ebdbbf0-51ac-4fb0-ab69-966515d868bb/SP500+Forward+Earnings+Estimates.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 27, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Earnings trends remain supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2c891fa5-ed90-4093-82ba-5356349c0432/3-month-eps-changes.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 27, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3A: Earnings trends remain supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4d3078e4-7c56-452b-8eb1-c7d9b66587f6/SP500+When+Forward+12+Month+EPS+Near+All+Time+High.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 27, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Strong earnings growth is constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/94c3e85c-72de-4ba4-af35-c2e282d7724e/SPX+with+MA+RSI+VIX.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 27, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Volatility levels have retreated to supportive levels for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c78c7d7a-fd04-4757-9c82-3d4704119062/10+Percent+Rolling+Volatility.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 27, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Positioning is now less elevated, but still high-neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/701f53cc-bb0a-4aea-a1fd-45fbb81008d9/DBMF+Exposure+to+Equities.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 27, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: DBMF exposure to SPX is relatively low. Two ways to interpret this: 1) Systematic investors are nervous, and/or 2) Systematic investors are underinvested and are a potential source of demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e68faad5-4a9b-4238-8dcd-cc011904e4b1/SP500+vs+Investment+Grade+OAS.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 27, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Credit spreads holding tight indicate that recent volatility isn’t likely to morph into a big bear market for equities. Note that, historically, when OAS credit spreads are below 1.00, max drawdowns have been muted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f671c28f-eb34-4183-876b-4db3a93bdc0a/SPX++Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 27, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: SPX gamma condition is currently positive. Gamma flips to negative below 6,912.61. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6a1997f6-b94f-4cf3-a2bf-fab6e4b63bba/Japanese+Carry+Trade.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 27, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The carry trade isn’t crashing, but pressure is building. Higher Japanese yields, yen moves, and tightening funding conditions make it less lucrative — meaning the risk of a more meaningful unwind is rising. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/32b848be-45d0-4f0f-9a60-100b0a6423a4/Silver+Price.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 27, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Relative to history, silver fundamentals lean constructive. Easing real yields, supportive liquidity, and an elevated gold–silver ratio favor upside, while industrial demand remains mildly bullish. Production costs are neutral. Rehypothecation may amplify rallies by increasing market fragility, reinforcing volatility rather than driving prices outright at this time. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d4fe0909-a6c9-46d4-822f-6983d5ed67ad/Economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 27, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Economic release calendar. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-january21-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-01-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a0a285ba-c65d-47b7-9c93-9806c67e2bd6/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. The current message remains constructive, indicating investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1da31f07-6cf2-4a3b-994b-6dbdaeb40e89/DH+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment is neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/59e1e157-9bfe-4b49-a5ed-0437c6af2c96/VIX.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: VIX below 20 is generally constructive. VIX above 20 is often a “Get Ready to Buy” signal. (Not a trigger, but a condition.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a69c92fe-59b2-46cb-86c3-397a1f616895/10+Volatility+Target+%281%29.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Positioning is now less elevated, but still high-neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fc3d381b-ff0b-4881-a27f-58582cebdcaa/DBMF+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: DBMF exposure to SPX is relatively low. Two ways to interpret this: 1) Systematic investors are nervous, and/or 2) Systematic investors are underinvested and are a potential source of demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dd6dcd83-dfd1-40ff-a8d3-b4226d95e9f4/SP500+with+RSI.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The S&P 500 RSI is neutral, based on a near-term, 14-day appraisal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6b8dd119-c093-457a-9260-460a9c5c097b/Nasdaq+with+RSI.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Nasdaq modestly oversold. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ec79920c-7938-4643-bcef-a65cd76cce84/Investment+Grade+OAS.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Credit spreads holding tight indicate that recent volatility isn’t likely to morph into a big bear market for equities. Note that, historically, when OAS credit spreads are below 1.00, max drawdowns have been muted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/43060bf4-63f2-4af7-83bf-b0064674e3bf/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: SPX gamma condition is currently negative. Gamma flips to positive above 6,901. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9542d52c-9867-4959-b8c2-2de13493e81b/Hedger%27s+combo.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: One of the reasons for yesterday’s pullback may have been that investors were under-hedged. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/97378e56-4bdf-47db-9c67-4bb870805f2d/stock-corrections.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Dips have historically occurred more than 7 times per year, on average. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/09b0eb42-866f-4dcb-9636-ca3ba4e5da1c/Previous+tariff+announcements.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The table shows that tariff announcements can spark knee-jerk market reactions—both selloffs and relief rallies—but the effects tend to fade within days or weeks. Equity moves depend heavily on context, including reciprocal actions, carve-outs, and court decisions, suggesting tariffs are important catalysts yet rarely the sole driver of sustained market trends. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ddead9ca-64c4-40fc-a9ae-a36fc9c21684/Earnings+Revisions+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Positive earnings revisions are still in play. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ac390e47-ed56-4cb1-9b91-715729828595/Global+Economic+Conditions.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Global economic conditions are supportive for global equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c49100f9-2f34-4ca7-9eec-fe0cbe83235e/Global+Recession+Probability.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Global Recession Probability is relatively low at this time. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dd3ece93-8345-4074-b176-40de42944923/GDPNow+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 16: Economic momentum is a tailwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2a933edb-8249-45a0-b8ee-d4b4dbf3dd1c/Economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 17: Economic release calendar. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-january-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-01-20 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-january-13-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-01-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fecdb89b-b547-44fc-b74f-43f91e815636/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. The current message is positive, indicating investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3ff40ff4-a6ac-4d15-97b6-2eea7fb77af3/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment is neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dd7738cb-ee2a-43af-be8f-3ca3b0e84066/10+Volatility+Target.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Positioning moderately above neutral. The 10% volatility‑target equity allocation’s 5-year rolling z‑score is above average but remains well inside typical “extreme” bands, indicating enthusiasm that is elevated versus history, yet not statistically euphoric or dislocated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ecd075d6-c24c-4f01-bea8-cac396a521d7/DBMF+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: DBMF exposure to SPX is relatively low. Two ways to interpret this: 1) Systematic investors are nervous, and/or 2) Systematic investors are underinvested and are a potential source of demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/02ae2252-e16b-4eb0-9dfc-f280506068d9/SP+500+with+14-day+RSI.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The S&P 500 is now overbought, based on a near-term, 14-day appraisal. This is a headwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b4e8449e-a173-4f72-9187-48bee6adf0ae/SP500+Returns+around+DeGraaf+and+Zweig+Breadth+Thrusts.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The table, courtesy of NDR, shows that, historically, crisis events have often been opportunities to redeploy capital. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/321ee8cf-387e-4e8f-9428-23739304ecd8/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: SPX gamma condition is currently favorable. Gamma flips to negative below 6,922. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9723339a-5365-4e89-b2d9-c4179f238d29/Economic+Policy+Uncertainty.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Economic Policy Uncertainty is above average. The latest reading of 259 signals elevated—but not extreme—policy uncertainty. The chart shows that equities can continue to grind higher despite volatile uncertainty. While policy shocks often drive short-term drawdowns, the S&P 500's longer-term trend has remained resilient across multiple high-uncertainty regimes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b7b82cc6-eb44-47ab-bcc6-b26e268b865b/Midterm+Election+Years.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: S&P 500 Returns around midterm election years. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c79febaa-8b83-46d7-81a5-c3a7ad0bc398/SP+500+Returns+and+Midterms.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Midterm years without recession or tightening are positive on average. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8f848c19-6e7f-445f-a8a4-f5192f5993fc/6+month+change++in+household+equity.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 11: 6-month change in household equity as a % of GDP. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/05d8399a-d32c-4861-a71c-61215d916dc8/Personal+Consumption+Lagged.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Increases in wealth often precede higher consumer spending. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/69b85e06-2c9b-469b-abc6-74c46b1c28d9/Job+Openings+vs+Unemployed.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Some slight cracks in the employment outlook to keep an eye on. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0cdc95ca-c194-4990-9a3e-626249cd5313/Percent+of+unsold+single+family+homes.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Underneath the hood, increased housing supply could lead to lower prices. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a213f4a0-e555-4943-93cd-9b0fc74df680/commodity-breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Some commodity sectors are ramping higher, with others heading in the opposite direction. The net result is that we have minor concerns and are watching to see if other commodity sectors play catch-up or if metals catch down. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7c3d4fd4-4551-43b2-bea7-082a9c4b9d3c/52-week-roc.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 16: Note the 52-week ROC for metals-related commodities. (Through 1-11-2026. Source: Barchart) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/463fc4c5-eb3c-4cdd-b86a-61707c1ffe7c/Softs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 17: In contrast to the softs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c6b9abe2-94e7-460e-b4c4-a2cd6581272f/Economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 13, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 18: Economic release calendar. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-january-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-01-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/df8f0e23-3690-4659-9785-e017ce4e4883/Consumer+Discretionary.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Consumer Discretionary showing signs of reversing from oversold levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d43ac84-5726-4adb-9b0e-0284a500483f/Consumer+Staples.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Slowing food inflation is negative for the Staples sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0d1ccdab-3e1c-4a38-9ea8-a9bf3bc86882/Communication+Services.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The Communication Services sector continues its reversal from short-term oversold conditions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/39da0cbc-85e9-40f8-b49c-c50c45e2cf2c/Energy.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Cash flows remain under pressure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b8ab7aba-4719-42b0-9302-805d0116eec3/Financials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: A wider yield curve is one of the few constructive indicators for the sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6deab8e4-cd4d-43f5-ab36-96e2be7ad82c/HelathCare.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Health Care technicals, including momentum, are relatively weak. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/57600841-5d33-4b20-8adf-8340a4f9589c/Industrials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The Industrials sector’s profitability may be impacted by rising commodity costs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c0b0ccc6-aab2-4adb-a117-16648130ba1f/Information+Technology.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The Information Technology sector appears to be reversing from shorter-term oversold lows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f1654d57-b20f-445c-a37c-75288a93bf6d/Materials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Slower EM activity has historically been negative for the Materials sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/811999fb-ad47-4dc2-979a-20626b1e6dad/Real+Estate.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Higher for longer rates are not good for the sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/652afd0d-8131-40d8-b9c3-fea3b33bebbd/Utilities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Technicals remain a headwind for the Utilities sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/86a1229e-9d8a-4783-b02d-4ad3d928128d/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a11ef98-2551-404f-8a98-666aa08948bd/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Investor sentiment is being reset, as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A reversal back above 30% would enhance the potential for a rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-january-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-01-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/703054f6-8e54-4945-8090-c3ff51c04267/Australia.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 1: A reversal in the interest rate differential would be negative for Australia. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e12335ae-89a2-49cf-a3a2-8d1ff0ef7633/Canada.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Canada appears to be mean reverting from oversold levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1deb0bd1-ac7d-4eaf-8753-d35763f08344/China.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Weaker PMIs illustrate headwinds for China’s economic activity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e1d82fdc-bc71-434b-bf3c-10b3737c68d2/France.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Short-term price momentum indicates caution. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/83c9dfee-109e-4536-8dcc-a8dda59d6b79/Germany.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: German manufacturing confidence continues to roll over. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ffcb5b27-d459-43e8-8b61-9800899c0d21/japan.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The Japan DSI sentiment index reversed from pessimism and is now in the optimism zone. We’re monitoring closely for a negative reversal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8e2c2d35-f18e-47dd-8888-8976a44d3eb1/Switzerland.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Relative momentum picking up for Swiss equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/692a23d2-e840-4a18-af33-0123aef12a46/UK.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Sentiment improving around U.K. equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/86a1229e-9d8a-4783-b02d-4ad3d928128d/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a11ef98-2551-404f-8a98-666aa08948bd/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Investor sentiment is being reset, as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A reversal back above 30% would enhance the potential for a rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-january-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-01-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8e4f796e-042d-455a-a25f-624ce21f3074/US+Treasury.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 1: U.S. Treasuries illustrating recent relative weakness. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ddd01735-2b1d-4b66-b780-a87864a6b431/US+TIPS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The recent uptick in commodity prices is constructive for TIPS. Monitoring for signs that this is a longer-term reversal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b7b79933-4af4-4fc9-9676-b580f180bc78/US+MBS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: MBS OBOS indicators are neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c28ba4c2-1e78-4ddc-85e9-6dfbbe47fa3c/US+Floating+Rate+Notes.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Relative technical support for Floating Rate Notes is showing early signs of improvement. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/26d277fb-1b6d-49bf-a13f-1ea74c4035db/US+IG+Corporates.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Lower implied bond volatility is constructive for bonds and equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eb830abd-a8c6-4f49-800e-38d1464da87b/US+High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Small-cap performance pulled back to the 63-day moving average. Important support for High-Yield bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/56358c75-cfbb-488e-8590-90dc1c0b8bbe/International+IG+Corporates.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Watching to see if International IG Corporates MACD moves to a buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0c70f2f7-1359-4bf7-ad4b-abcd7602bbd4/Emerging+Market+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Emerging Market equity momentum has supported EM bond prices. This indicator is now negative. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/14103286-2baf-4697-8730-23c5ee82224c/Catastrophic+Stop%5B89%5D.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends fully invested equity and fixed income positions (relative to benchmarks). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There can be no assurance that any investment or strategy will achieve its objectives or avoid substantial losses. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not a prediction, projection, or guarantee of future performance. Hypothetical results do not reflect actual trading, were derived using the benefit of hindsight, and may not reflect material economic and market events. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a11ef98-2551-404f-8a98-666aa08948bd/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Investor sentiment is being reset, as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A reversal back above 30% would enhance the potential for a rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-january-7-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-01-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/86a1229e-9d8a-4783-b02d-4ad3d928128d/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2026 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. The current message is positive, indicating investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a11ef98-2551-404f-8a98-666aa08948bd/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment is neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9bc22e97-3dbd-4085-952e-d61e80bde1c3/Rolling+5+year+z+score.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Positioning moderately above neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0e713345-fda9-4201-a83d-8751dd831da7/SPX+RSI.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The S&P 500 is neither overbought nor oversold, based on the 14-day RSI. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7304a4d4-9782-4d40-98cd-e02042f4c47c/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 5: SPX gamma condition is currently favorable. Gamma flips to negative below 6,892. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/674975dd-51c6-4c11-85c5-3558b621e850/Crisis+Events+table+Part+1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The table, courtesy of NDR, shows that, historically, crisis events have often been opportunities to redeploy capital. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/759e2d16-c5e5-4bc9-a088-326c456c97f5/Crisis+Events+table+Part+2.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The table, courtesy of NDR, shows that, historically, crisis events have often been opportunities to redeploy capital. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f2db4cdc-ad57-405d-80e7-9129db6afc6d/Economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2026 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Economic release calendar. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-december-31-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-12-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c6adcac8-6824-4108-a2e3-785176059be1/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. The current message is positive, indicating investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5b5af95b-9b7e-4a21-b347-4a1e8358a072/DH+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment shows optimism returning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7c0059f4-b9e5-4681-bae9-92bb536a3c86/10+Volatility+Target+Equity+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Positioning moderately above neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3ee2d543-c104-4654-99c6-433aee0c1e2d/14-day-rsi-sp500.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The S&P 500 is neither overbought nor oversold, based on the 14-day RSI. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dbe78380-3d00-4d80-9d37-ac93bce9b3fb/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: SPX gamma condition is currently favorable. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a0838e14-7382-4fcb-864d-9e3d4d39dfeb/sp500-percent-returns.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: January gains since 2010 have been mixed. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/54974b56-101a-4468-a1a6-027edffc236e/1-year-return-peak.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Is Technology in a bubble? And if so, how does it compare to past bubbles? You be the judge. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1b5e96f3-17ab-4741-be4a-ea1eb1757333/Economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Economic release calendar. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-december-15-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-12-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0702265a-55e2-47a4-8738-b5f0e975246e/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. The current message is positive, indicating investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a3aba1e8-c378-410d-ac59-0dbdcf45a74b/SPX+1D.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: SPX RSI neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7bdda83e-327a-4345-8b83-e95ef932aca1/SP+500+Earnings+Growth+CY+2026.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Best performers this year? Nasdaq companies with no revenues! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/75428dd0-0c84-473e-858e-d874cbfcf909/Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite is a broad-based measure. It reflects investor pessimism. A rise back above 30 would generate a buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e7600c14-34e5-4e45-97c1-e95cf7c5a7e4/VIX.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: VIX below 20 is constructive for equities. Source: StreetStats. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/655985c4-8b47-443c-b8c3-0c95bd5daf12/MOVE+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: MOVE index indicates low bond volatility. Constructive for equities. Source: StreetStats. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5b026810-b091-4ad8-a5fd-be1ba968c246/10+Volatility+Targeting+Equity+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Positioning neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1cb014cf-15d6-44ec-b31e-5c4af2d9b359/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The Gamma condition is currently positive, but the gamma flip point is close. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aabfe228-9d30-45b6-ad84-8df4cf5af3a4/SP+500+Earnings+Growth+CY+2026.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Earnings growth into 2026 is forecast to be 14.5%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c8d49009-9f26-492e-bc71-37a12b3e67ff/Sp500+Sector+Level+Forward+12+Month+PE+Ratios.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Valuations at the high end. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/30281f1c-a958-416b-b806-83a3e0ee5ee9/Fed+Funds+Rate+Forecast.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The Fed cut rates 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75%, acknowledged moderate growth and still‑elevated inflation, and signaled it is now near neutral and will move more cautiously, making any further adjustments data‑dependent rather than pre-committed. (Chart: StreetStats) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3af8e4fe-3d94-4882-a587-465a544afbce/Citigroup+Economic+Surprise+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: U.S. ESI is in positive territory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6410cebc-72b3-44e5-87be-5a7a07d2c819/Citigroup+Economic+Surprise+Index+Japan.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Japan’s ESI spiking higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7f3a838e-cd75-4192-bace-ef8db24102c3/Citigroup+Economic+Surprise+Index+UK.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: The U.K.’s ESI is negative but may be approaching levels that are “so bad, it’s good.” We’re monitoring closely. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3e37cdd1-a139-438e-9cd2-19ddf629bf4b/Economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Economic release calendar. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-december-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-12-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3dfcae3d-e39d-41ee-a221-2fafbeb836db/Australia.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Gold stalled last month, which was negative for Australia’s stock market. It now looks to be reversing from oversold lows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ca0d853a-b208-4f92-a7dc-bb213354e8a0/Canada.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Canada’s leading economic indicators are showing signs of improvement. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/be4a6996-103c-41df-8a8e-3942fe98b255/China.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Tighter high-yield credit spreads are constructive for risk-on assets, including EM. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/57bacd06-6e1b-4604-a1ad-2b5a8c83ca90/International+IG+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: International ETF flows have slowed. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eba03989-1512-4f1b-bfff-e4e0b356736f/Germany.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: German manufacturing confidence rolling over. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/56d3b855-6ccf-4efb-b3b9-b9a30fe7e14f/Japan.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The Japan sentiment index reversed from pessimism and is now in the optimism zone. We’re monitoring closely for a negative reversal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1d1d2ec7-7a6c-42c4-a4e0-c05188898fef/Switzerland.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The relative rise in Switzerland’s nominal 10-year yield is negative. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f1054918-b975-4c9c-96c3-911c44f49ee7/UK.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: U.K. technical showing initial signs of improvement. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/20dd37d4-a3f6-47ae-82a2-5b259d222230/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There can be no assurance that any investment or strategy will achieve its objectives or avoid substantial losses. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not a prediction, projection or guarantee of future performance. Hypothetical results do not reflect actual trading, were derived using the benefit of hindsight, and may not reflect material economic and market events. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bf4a66b4-7526-455f-b8c4-1ce817bc8193/DH+Daily+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Investor sentiment is being reset, as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A reversal back above 30% would enhance the potential for a rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-december-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-12-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8c300c66-456a-4133-a84b-bf35006200bc/US+Treasury.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: CDS rates are potentially reversing, indicating that fear of a significant market disruption is fading. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/adb6dac9-83da-4996-9d0a-919a89ae657f/US+TIPS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Inflation expectations are subdued in the longer term. Negative for TIPS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6d9afbef-5763-41a6-83e6-8ae58559152a/MBS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Technicals supporting MBS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/86d098d0-867e-4e81-86e6-95ebcf1f33c9/Floating+Rate+Notes.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Relative momentum for Floating Rate Notes is improving. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7785cfb5-e73a-49a2-a357-5286eb924eb7/US+IG+Corporates.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Lower implied bond volatility is constructive for bonds and equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d60da452-b039-48dc-8e1b-95aa1ad7e541/High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Improving small-cap equity trends support high-yield exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/57bacd06-6e1b-4604-a1ad-2b5a8c83ca90/International+IG+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Lower CDS rates are constructive for international fixed-income. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5bc2660e-9bcd-4fcb-bb15-f801cccc82c7/Emerging+Market.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Emerging Market equity momentum has supported EM bond prices. This indicator is now negative. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/20dd37d4-a3f6-47ae-82a2-5b259d222230/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends fully invested equity and fixed income positions (relative to benchmarks). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There can be no assurance that any investment or strategy will achieve its objectives or avoid substantial losses. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not a prediction, projection or guarantee of future performance. Hypothetical results do not reflect actual trading, were derived using the benefit of hindsight, and may not reflect material economic and market events. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bf4a66b4-7526-455f-b8c4-1ce817bc8193/DH+Daily+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Investor sentiment is being reset, as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A reversal back above 30% would enhance the potential for a rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-december-10-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-12-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/20dd37d4-a3f6-47ae-82a2-5b259d222230/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. The current message is positive, indicating investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d6cf835f-4a40-4f5d-8cfa-4faaaf8666b1/A+Divided+US+Market.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Best performers this year? Nasdaq companies with no revenues! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bf4a66b4-7526-455f-b8c4-1ce817bc8193/DH+Daily+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite is a broad-based measure. It reflects investor pessimism. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/957ffd54-ca0f-4ec6-b2ad-272c16f4e136/sp500-volatility-index-dec2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: VIX below 20 is constructive for equities. Source: StreetStats. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/94ba8451-290f-475e-9c66-194f0b1b19af/MOVE+index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: MOVE index indicates low bond volatility. Note: Today’s 10-year auction was supportive of bonds. Source: StreetStats. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0d0d0c75-6c4a-43fe-8770-e9ed739475d4/Russell+3000+Percent+of+Stocks+above+50-day+MA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their respective 50-day MAs is now 54.8%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d4d9aafd-65a7-41ec-8730-ccc22de89d94/High+Yield+Bond+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: High-yield bond breadth has improved. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c243021a-05ad-4fe0-83c8-00bb0a9c18c4/10+Percent+Volatility+Target+Equity+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Positioning neutral, but slightly elevated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b2f0e01e-7fab-4af8-b9c5-00234f9e1e7e/SPX+Gamma.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Gamma condition is currently positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a0d23a80-5bf8-4e78-b5ee-6d7882c41286/SP500+vs+Year+End+Strategist+Forecasts.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Strategist expectations for an upmove consistent with longer-term history. However, since 2023, potentially a little extended. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cb65cf0a-8652-486f-9a41-b887057490f1/Fed+Funds+Rate+Forecast.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The Fed funds rate forecast shows investors are currently pricing in a 3.09% Fed funds rate toward the end of 2026 (not on the chart). That is now the hurdle rate; a shift higher would be bearish, and a shift lower would be bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e5b42d75-d51d-4876-b113-49d1718539a6/Global+M2+Money+Supply.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Global M2 Money Supply increases over the past three months are constructive. However, over the past month, the U.S. has led the way, while Japan has taken a more restrictive path. We’re watching to see Takaishi’s response, as she has staked out a stimulative stance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8579271b-6a4a-45cd-9b6e-21a0b9382584/Overview+Small+Business+Optimism.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Small Business Optimism Index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0cd4abf4-6bef-4acd-8550-112a1fef1f1d/Small+Business+Optimism+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Survey Components https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/edc9aa49-aedc-47aa-a4aa-9b95e9cb6bc3/Economic+Surprise+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 15: ESI is in positive territory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2ee37eaa-606c-456f-af1d-9c4b2d7788d4/Economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 16: Economic Calendar for the Week. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-december-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-12-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/697e5529-62d9-4904-b8ed-0ed4a61f7a35/Consumer+Discretionary.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Consumer Discretionary relative price momentum is declining. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d43ac84-5726-4adb-9b0e-0284a500483f/Consumer+Staples.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Better economic news is negative for defensive stocks. The ESI is currently positive, acting as a headwind for Staples. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2e8f1f8f-6c29-48af-bd99-723195b7ff20/Communication+Services.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The Communication Services sector is reversing from short-term oversold conditions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6823968b-a222-45ca-bf8d-8c8111881693/Energy.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Crude oil inventories starting to normalize. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/beb7f53d-49bb-4326-8e42-d4492f972f96/Financials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Keeping an eye on credit spreads in the Financials sector. Up slightly, but so far, the increase isn’t indicating a major problem in the financial market structure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2478b58f-b583-4f30-ac22-a0dd48ea3237/Health+Care.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Health Care sector showing signs of improved pricing power. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/44b6ceab-90b5-4141-b90c-08bb35457692/Industrials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The Industrials sector momentum is showing signs of reversing from lows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3cf10367-f0e5-4cf2-bbff-d56baae3c7ca/Information+Technology.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The Information Technology sector earnings revision breadth is positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/42f17360-e449-404e-8971-1952f2c2c9ca/Materials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Materials sector relative earnings yield is showing signs of improvement. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5ffed237-2ebc-4afb-a2a0-89373a801aca/Real+Estate.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The NFIB Small Business Credit Conditions survey has declined; a headwind for Real Estate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d1e18c47-bf23-4b82-a621-a94774263ec8/Utilities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The manufacturing sector is still under pressure. A turnaround would benefit Utilities and AI. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/db723538-4df2-40d3-b902-2c9098d71f9f/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-dec2025.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b5bfbffe-1627-4e4d-afb1-e9c19250745d/sentiment-dec2025.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Investor sentiment is being reset, as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A reversal back above 30% would enhance the potential for a rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-december-2-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-12-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2819227e-150e-4f62-8dca-054f021b12f6/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 2, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. The current message is positive, indicating investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e48c05ec-741b-4838-8bb2-f1bcceca92b4/Sp500+Median+Drawdown.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: This FELT like more than a 10% correction. Here’s why. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/60a55084-e7b0-4780-b031-b2956cf05d91/Zweig+Breadth+Thrust.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Zweig Breadth Thrust https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2b57a792-2da7-4e41-a35c-f0abaec66232/Russell+3000+Percent+of+Stocks+above+50+day+MA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: We noted modest improvement in breadth last week. By Friday, breadth had increased even more. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/75618290-9924-433e-a6b7-790f854571a9/sp500-earnings-growth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Earnings growth is still constructive. Data as of 11-24-2025. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9cdc0834-8d6b-4eba-8ad2-75c6ea9cc0a3/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Sentiment is a near-term tailwind. May support a year-end rally. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ca8325d1-0121-416d-964c-746bfa254c2c/Rolling+5+year+Z+Score.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Vol-targeting funds equity exposure rated as neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e1b6d0e6-c132-48e8-a200-3ae4fb52f967/SP500+Speculative+Short+ETF+Volume.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Bears moved in fast! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/317b918d-4d6d-4553-a2cc-a0139d298143/OAS.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Option-adjusted spreads. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/108349aa-0b48-42dc-beb0-83f6016291c2/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: SPX Gamma exposure by strike. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e3a2c875-83ca-435c-bcb1-296cb210a9a3/Economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Economic Calendar for the Week. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-november-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-11-14 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-november-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-11-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/55f128bd-0b6f-49a1-8f71-56cefc927f5e/US+Treasuries.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: CDS rates are potentially reversing, indicating that fear of a major market disruption is fading. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0cd084f4-3e77-4d6e-b228-a7d206be07b1/US+TIPS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Inflation expectations are rolling over longer term. Negative for TIPS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/160bac54-6bc9-49fc-b9ae-a9b64d0d8470/US+MBS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Lower rates are good for MBS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e513f257-c798-48eb-8b40-ed24c66d2146/US+FLoating+Rate+Notes.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Relative momentum for Floating Rate Notes is negative. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bb074350-d9d9-45c3-8766-fe313edb8784/US+Aggregate.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Lower CDS rates are constructive for U.S. Corporate Bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b08da5e6-c138-48b5-b718-5051af486e8e/US+Corporate+High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: High-Yield bond breadth continued to deteriorate in October. A move below the lower bracket and a reversal back above would generate a buy signal for this indicator. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/46975532-26a6-47bc-a217-a911c9baf0a3/Global+Aggregate+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Technicals are still negative for Global IG Corporate Bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6fa6c4b4-72c5-400e-9bd7-aaf71d616057/EM+USD+Aggregate+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Emerging Market equity momentum has supported EM bond prices. A decline below the 0 line would lead us to reduce exposure. Getting closer. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4e71215e-d620-4fa7-92ad-eb7b784b4f1c/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends fully invested equity and fixed income positions (relative to benchmarks). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ae8fc507-331d-4f4b-bac4-f48bde627c86/sentiment-composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Investor sentiment is being reset, as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A decline below 30 and a reversal back above would be a nice setup for a year-end rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-november-10-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-11-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b718129d-339f-411b-a700-084c6c0b342b/Australia.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Gold has stalled, which is negative for Australia’s stock market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0d34b91a-bf0d-4f45-8369-9053abff7bd3/Canada.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Canada’s relative strength mean reversion indicator is showing signs of reversing from oversold conditions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/84bf3657-aebe-4345-8e01-81ee83211832/China.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: China’s PMIs have stalled. In response, monetary and fiscal authorities are in stimulus mode. Now we need to see the stimulus translate into economic growth. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a550ed54-fc33-4b3f-ad38-fb49b8c90f27/France.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: We’re noting some breadth improvement, but not enough to significantly increase exposure. We require more indicators to turn positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/25020896-c38e-450a-b5e5-0bbff673a197/Germany.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Fund flow trends started to improve and then stalled. Concerns around the political and economic environment continue to act as headwinds. Due to the oversold conditions, we added slightly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/50f92e29-7734-42be-a0ad-94e4a1ceff67/Japan.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Forward earnings growth expectations are still positive but potentially leveling off. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8847d6ff-522d-4e12-96fc-e3a2533d03c3/Switzerland.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Breadth is rated neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/472c2411-5bb1-4198-a0cd-ca5654de8ef6/UK.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: U.K. option-adjusted spreads are widening slightly. We’re monitoring this closely. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4e71215e-d620-4fa7-92ad-eb7b784b4f1c/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ae8fc507-331d-4f4b-bac4-f48bde627c86/sentiment-composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Investor sentiment is being reset, as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A decline below 30 would be a nice setup for a year-end rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-november-10-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-11-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a293fd78-a529-4ebd-9260-9023d34a1a75/Consumer+Discretionary.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Consumer Discretionary showing signs of a short-term reversal from oversold conditions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d5918462-2365-4dbe-a568-9ed895905654/Consumer+Staples.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Relative price momentum is poised for a reversal. If this occurs, it would argue for more defensive exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cf0a1386-41e8-4c88-b7b9-28c8e1443303/Communication+Services.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The Communication Services sector has now worked off some of the froth we noted in last month’s letter. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/728bf079-97d8-45b4-95e8-6632537bbb5b/Energy.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Profitability (cash flow trends) is still an issue for the Energy sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0ce51838-92c6-46e0-a19b-7f2ec38a946f/Financials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Keeping an eye on credit spreads in the Financials sector. Up slightly, but so far, the increase isn’t indicating a major problem in the financial market structure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8ae9a18d-cde9-4414-ae38-e48c3f427c66/Health+Care.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Health Care shows signs of relative strength improvement. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fc757bd6-d5bd-4e53-834b-24dcb76f5af7/Industrials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The number of new lows within the Industrials sector is increasing, indicating technical weakness. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/db92dfa9-c6ca-4301-876c-e70b264c483e/Information+Technology.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The Information Technology sector remains in overbought territory. A reversal below the top band would generate a sell signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f24cb25d-75f8-4cc5-85b3-41690b4c9be8/Materials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Historically, better equity performance in Emerging Markets has been bullish for the Materials sector. EM is slowly making headway against DM, the opposite of what we saw last month. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/80abf166-8fed-4e3c-b21d-eb70c39e8d3f/Real+Estate.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Improvement in the NFIB Small Business Credit Conditions survey often supports the Real Estate sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/959948cf-10ca-4386-8121-f29636be4702/Utilities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Relative Breadth is declining from the recent peak. A decisive reversal would support increased exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1fa70785-b0b7-4c51-8c1b-1b8b4eefc422/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Because the model uses indices to extend its history, it is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/45f52440-fa59-48cc-bd2b-31137f3bcb5c/sentiment-composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Investor sentiment is being reset, as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A decline below 30 and a reversal back above would be a nice setup for a year-end rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-november-10-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-11-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cef09016-b5e1-499f-92fc-42f930b0afcb/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 10, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. The current message is neutral, indicating investors should maintain benchmark equity exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a8135c89-b267-4f11-9e44-88cd3f9e2dc8/DH+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite remains in excessive pessimism territory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/665ff6cd-250e-40b4-a80c-0ee409ea5782/10+Volatility+Target+Equity+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Positioning indicators and composites are high-neutral. The 10% Volatility Targeting equity allocation chart below suggests potential demand on the sidelines. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7c758407-f6c6-47b0-a384-c539f3428592/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: SPX Gamma exposure by strike. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/73865c86-8ec5-4dc3-9572-908b4de1b7a7/VIX.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: VIX below 20 is constructive for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/752da92b-b8ed-47f9-ad26-33b918d9e93a/government-shutdowns-primary-trends.jpg Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Government shutdowns typically don’t disrupt the primary trend. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5b7a9225-827a-45ee-8181-e44c702017d8/sector-government-shutdown.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Sectors’ likely responses to a government shutdown. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f7bba217-505a-4389-a5e9-a7caf747141d/Oper+EPS+Percent+Changes.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Earnings growth into 2026 and 2027 is expected to remain constructive for equities. (Source: CFRA) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ab19ed4b-62b7-4443-b571-a533eb2538c6/PEs+SP+Sectors.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Valuations based on 2025, 2026, and 2027 earnings expectations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/268a0552-9895-4108-873d-53fefd1c635d/Citigroup+economic+surprise+index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The U.S. Economic Surprise Index is constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5fff2a50-c4c5-4255-bd31-c13f2b29387a/us-economic-activity-equities.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Rate cut expectations have been dampened, but not quashed. Investors are still pricing in rate cuts through 2026. (Source: StreetStats.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/09b6b1b5-0bdc-45bb-ae4e-deb780e5cbf3/AtlantaFed+GDPNOw.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: U.S. economic activity is constructive for equities. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates Q3 GDP to be 4.0% (as of 11/06). As we wrote last week, “That’s probably high, but it does indicate that activity is positive. To date, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is also in positive territory, indicating that U.S. economic releases have been beating estimates, on average, over the last three months.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9d0787d3-d05a-4bbe-b0ef-79c3094a9f2f/Economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Economic Calendar for the Week. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-november-3-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4a1e2859-c540-4510-87e2-1d2729c94116/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. The current message is neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2506fb05-e8ca-4997-9177-61a1dfbeb4b9/DH+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite remains in excessive pessimism territory. A reversal back above 30% would generate a fresh buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c5e22eff-79cc-4d6e-8e3b-8fea1c5c632d/10+Volatility+Targeting+Equity+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Positioning indicators and composites are neutral. The 10% Volatility Targeting equity allocation chart below implies that much of the froth has already been worked off. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aead61c5-cfb0-4da3-96b9-c25f0aee180b/ICE+BoA+High+Yield+Index+Option+adjusted+spread.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Net: higher rates + hawkish Fed messaging = wider credit spreads. However, a longer-term perspective shows spreads still tight relative to history. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fdb2dacd-a387-491c-bbee-6fc66bfa3f11/2025+Cycle+Commposite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: 2025 Cycle Composite https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/039200e7-46f2-4cca-90be-e951c6224bba/SP500+Index+Total+Percent+Returns.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Since 2010, January has been positive 56.25% of the time. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f5847360-6b0d-4403-a70c-901bb58d3383/SPX+SP500+6840.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The SPY with a 21-day RSI. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e4dbc0d5-8eb2-4018-8145-96609bcc566c/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: SPX is in a positive gamma state. (Source: Barchart.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ab83ae14-f85e-43ac-aa6f-e3aad936a273/SPX+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Expected move based on options pricing. Source: Barchart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8af95a6d-0057-4276-9644-31b8c9785247/Latest+FOMC+Dot+Plot.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Rate cut expectations have been dampened, but not quashed. Investors are still pricing in rate cuts through 2026. (Source: StreetStats.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7255311f-1ff9-4ea5-82ac-bf05eb5aa019/Atlanta+Fed+GDPNow.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: U.S. economic activity is constructive for equities. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates Q3 GDP to be 3.9% (as of 10/27). As we wrote last week, “That’s probably high, but it does indicate that activity is positive. To date, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is also in positive territory, indicating that U.S. economic releases have been beating estimates, on average, over the last three months.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0e8e42b3-d578-42b9-aa53-a2a0f67fe13f/US+Economic+Surprise+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: U.S. Economic Surprise Index. (Source: Yardeni) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/da4a24e5-2d9d-4397-b927-ae25c918b468/Earnings+Revisions+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Earnings revisions continue to trend positively. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0924f3cd-7a69-4b13-ac29-4f1307ffec1f/SP500+Valuation+HeatMap.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: The heatmap below provides an interesting backdrop for a fundamental scenario analysis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7e1ffec5-a298-4d0a-9142-0732b9500586/Economic+Calendar+Part+1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bd08c12c-9245-456e-88e8-5c1466823424/Economic+Calendar+Part+2.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Economic Calendar for the Week https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-october-25-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-10-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ae2dae2f-dddb-4a97-93e7-d3834982516d/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/43d50c11-563d-470c-99b3-7ed100e51f38/DH+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite is now in excessive pessimism territory. A reversal back above 30% would generate a buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2f6b691b-ee82-48da-be51-db746363959e/10+Volatility+Target+Equity+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Positioning indicators and composites have moved to more neutral levels. The 10% Volatility Targeting equity allocation chart below implies that much of the froth has already been worked off. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4180047e-9615-441f-99b4-d8874319ac2a/SP500+Cycle+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: 2025 Cycle Composite https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4d99f10d-ebbb-404a-9257-52a1e3b16828/SP500+Index+Total+Percent+Returns.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Since 2010, January has been positive 56.25% of the time. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a6056a3f-fa59-4d5b-b94a-527c69fadc33/SPY+SPDR+S%26P+500+ETF.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The SPY with a 21-day RSI. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d6ba551-3b99-477b-9017-e030b2f525c9/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: SPX is in a positive gamma state. Source: Barchart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/32fe7854-1b86-47bb-acf6-c9092a1527cc/spx+expected+move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Expected move based on options pricing. Source: Barchart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dc7a7a17-65e4-41cf-abc5-f056bfd81443/VIX+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Note how quickly the VIX reversed. VIX expected move for 11-19-2025 is 13.75 to 18.99. ( Source: Barchart and Tastylive) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b8e43241-2c91-4034-9888-e8a8a44a0268/us-economic-activity.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: U.S. economic activity is constructive for equities. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates Q3 GDP to be 3.9% (as of 10/17, next update scheduled for 10-27). As we wrote last week, “That’s probably high, but it does indicate that activity is positive. To date, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (not shown) is also in positive territory, indicating that U.S. economic releases have been beating estimates, on average, over the last three months.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/31b78059-b5a0-4006-acab-1f7b4d25ad87/SP+Global+US+Composite+PMI+Output.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: U.S. Flash PMI illustrates expansion. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d8f3414c-cd0b-4855-80a6-a5570827a38a/FRED+1-year+Expected+Inflation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The FRB of Cleveland’s 1-year Expected Inflation calculation is 2.74%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6a355612-67c5-4bf2-87f5-4643796c4497/SP500+Earnings+Growth+Q4+2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 - Make it stand out ‍ Figure 13: Q4 2025 forecasts. Source: FactSet. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0b301e11-88cd-410d-8756-034f252460e9/Economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Economic Calendar for the Week https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-october-20-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-10-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3bbb1110-ebeb-4d20-a3b0-0f789404bb2a/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2549aa76-3fd6-40b8-bccb-f36e87a44f81/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite is now in excessive pessimism territory. A reversal back above 30% would generate a buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/108d5f5c-f75d-46e1-a9f9-394ac8c1f63d/CBOE+Volatility+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: VIX spiked higher. Often presages a short-term positive reversal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1824f0cd-52d2-458a-b6f8-bf1c2002015d/SP500+100+day+volatility.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Longer-term view of equity volatility. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1e5122df-6cc4-465b-b7fb-258fd62bd66e/Move+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The MOVE index (the “VIX of Treasuries”) was also relatively contained last week. Certainly well below levels seen during the March/April decline. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/23390e7f-c0f9-4d3b-baed-5ae442221161/10-year+Treasury.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: 10-year Treasury Yield. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/69649f28-c3ab-4ecf-9b6b-fd1b9ef5b538/90-trading-days.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: It took 90 trading days to recover from the last tariff shock. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d47ce693-62b6-461b-90d3-dce2eb00b4a6/SP500+10+day+rate+of+change.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The S&P 500’s 10-day rate of change (using a 5-month z-score) measures OBOS. This indicator never quite made it to significantly oversold levels, but did get to levels consistent with other dips. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f0f1c932-7458-47f0-944b-f0a7f982b73a/10+Volatility+Target+Equity+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Positioning indicators and composites have moved to more neutral levels. The 10% Volatility Targeting equity allocation chart below shows that much of the froth has already been worked off. You can see where positioning was at the 2020, 2022, 2024, and 2025 lows. These charts are very helpful in identifying the level of potential future demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9d9d4f7f-051a-426a-bab7-d738c8cc2855/DBMF+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: DBMF’s lower exposure to equities indicates some momentum loss but can also serve as a foundation for a rally as systematic funds re-risk. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/875ff64a-c7bd-4be4-99ea-da28b2aa4db4/SP500+Cycle+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Last week, we wrote, “We can’t help but wonder if this pullback is creating a better opportunity for a year-end rally. Will President Trump soften the rhetoric? It didn’t take long, or much in the way of finding common ground, for the equity market to regain its uptrend last time.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/02066e89-eaeb-4e25-8d91-5be47fdb7c39/Atlanta+Fed+GDP+Now+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: U.S. economic activity is constructive for equities. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates Q3 GDP to be 3.9%. That’s probably high, but it does indicate that activity is positive. To date, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (not shown) is also in positive territory, indicating that U.S. economic releases have been beating estimates, on average, over the last three months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b0d9015b-65c6-4ba9-ab1c-b0580342285a/Small+Business+Optimism+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined but is still mid-range. (Source: NFIB Research Center) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4e2e2b4c-5c38-49b4-881b-138653e7a33c/Global+M2+Money+Supply.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Global liquidity, based on M2 Money Supply, remains constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bff44ae3-ea1f-4dcc-86aa-55e48a2b01ba/5-year+Breakeven+inflation+rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Based on the 5-year breakeven inflation rate, inflation pressures are diminishing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6f55cea3-261d-4311-9bfa-33858cb62960/SP+500+Earnings+Growth+CY+2026.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 16: With 12% of companies reporting, 86% have beaten estimates versus the 10-year average of 75%. We do note that the magnitude of upside surprises is lower than what has been seen over the past 5- and 10-year periods. Nevertheless, earnings growth expectations for 2026 have increased from 13.8% to 13.9% since September 30. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/24ad103a-77e1-43dc-9650-82b7ee0302d7/Earnings+Revision+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 17: Earnings revisions, to date, are positive and supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bac79e80-7d6b-46bc-8929-865aebee92ea/Calendar+of+economic+releases.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 20, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 18: Economic Calendar for the Week https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-october-17-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-10-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dfd4fad8-376a-4712-bec1-03cdc93c54b7/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model would generate a sell signal by closing below 40% for two consecutive days. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1b3d89fd-98f1-401b-9303-bbf2beb98324/SPX+with+notations.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: It took 90 trading days to recover from the last tariff shock. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4e92eb5b-4bc5-4af2-9e9d-9279a05cf656/CBOE+Volatility+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Short-term equity moves are highly dependent on systematic, algorithmic, risk parity, and ODTE (zero days to expiration options) investors. Increases in volatility can lead to these segments selling stocks (relative to volatility). However, the subsequent reversals have historically been quick. Unless the fundamental backdrop changes, vol indicators like the ones below can be used to identify buy opportunities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ce6aadda-ce64-41b1-8751-9d7605c8e2bc/Move+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The MOVE Index (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate) measures expected volatility in U.S. Treasury markets, reflecting investor uncertainty about interest rates and bond market risk. It moves inversely to equity prices. This needs to hold. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5eb7d74f-a78a-436b-9962-2853b49b9fe4/10-year+Treasury+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: One differentiator between Liberation Day and now could be the rate backdrop. If rates hold lower, it will help support our view that investors are likely looking past the recent tariff upheaval. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9ea943e6-ff5b-4028-97d6-663e44c89274/Sp+500+stocks+above+50+day+MA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: We’re watching A/D lines, new highs/new lows, and percentage of stocks above various moving averages to identify potential washout points. As you can see, in April, the number of S&P 500 stocks above their respective 50-day MAs got as low as 5%. If that were to occur, it would be a strong short-term oversold signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bb481bc6-d919-428b-afe7-dcd6d030be81/SP500+10+day+rate+of+change.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The S&P 500’s 10-day rate of change (using a 5-month z-score) is another way of measuring OBOS. This indicator is getting close to significantly oversold levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1c253402-b37e-487d-b697-82b9e49065ee/Russell+3000+52W+New+Highs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The previous five charts provide shorter-term views. The chart below shows 52-week new highs minus new lows (smoothed by 5 periods). It identifies secular oversold conditions. Note the signal near the April lows. If that were to occur again, we would likely view it very positively (again, with the caveat that the fundamentals hold up reasonably well). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/97a6f556-2193-470c-a6f4-10239e5f9286/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Index is neutral. However, a move below 30 and a reversal back above that level would generate a buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e2bea645-d2fb-418f-8ead-d75554b64100/10+Percent+volatility+targeting.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Positioning indicators and composites remain elevated, but as shown by the vol-targeting equity allocation chart below, some of the froth has already been worked off. You can see where positioning was at the 2020, 2022, 2024, and 2025 lows. These charts are very helpful in identifying the level of potential demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e86818ec-c321-4d9b-b7fb-ae4c7e2b748d/SP500+Cycle+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: We can’t help but wonder if this pullback is creating a better opportunity for a year-end rally. Will President Trump soften the rhetoric? It didn’t take long, or much in the way of finding common ground, for the equity market to regain its uptrend last time. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/15636651-e318-4ef4-9c45-c536b8557d6b/Atlanta+Fed+GDPNow+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: U.S. economic activity is constructive for equities. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates Q3 GDP to be 3.8%. That’s probably high, but it does indicate that activity is positive. To date, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (not shown) is also in positive territory, indicating that U.S. economic releases have been beating estimates, on average, over the last three months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e54b1070-ae64-4fc2-b175-a96a1d20072b/Global+M2+Money+Supply.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Global liquidity, based on M2 Money Supply, remains positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6ec61d77-0aac-41a1-85f0-8c920912dc45/5-year+Breakeven+Inflation+Rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Based on the 5-year breakeven inflation rate, inflation pressures are diminishing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/72dd6f3c-dc68-4c0d-a32a-7b2bb6c4c77e/SP+500+Earnings+Growth+Y-Y+CY+2026.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 15: With regard to earnings, FactSet reports that the “S&P 500 will likely report earnings growth above 13% for Q3.” For calendar year 2026, “analysts are projecting earnings growth of 13.8% and revenue growth of 6.6%.” If these forecasts hold up, it’s a bullish underpinning for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/137ef2bc-efd0-4132-a246-482160298b92/Earnings+Revisions+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 16: Earnings revisions, to date, are positive and supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5db1be0d-9c40-4c44-9407-b6a75fba4a9b/Calendar+part+1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 17: Economic Calendar for the week https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-the-bulls-keeps-bullying monthly 0.5 2025-10-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1759954805962-5G2I84BCXEVIUCP4ZD85/day-hagan-tech-talk-10.08.2025-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Bull Keeps Bullying, But… - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4e21ef3c-0f39-44d9-9bca-020e3985a575/%21adlinenyc.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Bull Keeps Bullying, But… - Make it stand out Figure 1: NYSE All Issues A/D Line and NYSE Common Stock Only A/D Line. | This can be remedied. But it needs to happen sooner rather than later. Otherwise, it could have some serious consequences. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/05acbf13-c00b-4cc4-8697-51a9880091de/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Bull Keeps Bullying, But… - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500. | This channel has been in place for many months, Q3. A violation of the lower blue channel line (6600+/-) or a previous price low (support indicated in green—6570 to 6550) would be a “change of character” and something to note. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-october-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-10-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/95c90a8f-80a0-4748-ba12-4826b843f1ea/sector-summary.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Value Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Sector Summary https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-october-07-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-10-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/51a0a095-dfda-492b-9a36-6e639fb9e33c/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 Figure 1: The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model is neutral at 50%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7893e452-319e-45df-bdcf-832df6254782/DH+Daily+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite is now 54.4%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c0c993eb-b03d-4643-9d07-5f9eb7283150/SPX+SP500+6743.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Back to short-term overbought levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1514dc67-ea1c-449d-ada5-7ebe4eac4d7f/Russell+3000+Volume+Supply+and+Demand.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Volume-weighted Demand and Supply. The indicator weights trade volume by price direction to gauge whether supply (selling) or demand (buying) is dominating across Russell 3000 constituents. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/90aaebd2-7ccb-4526-b04f-a217821e3e57/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Positive gamma condition is currently in play. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/21c13c99-bc8e-42df-a881-3ac996bb3b62/History+of+Shutdowns+1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: History of Shutdowns 1. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c7e7e5d2-8a33-4c71-9606-50401921fc17/History+of+Shutdowns+2.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: History of Shutdowns 2. Source: Ashton Thomas Research, Congressional Research Services, Morningstar, E.D. Jones https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6b2d8d09-6680-43ef-8ca5-20522711c388/response-to-shutdown.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Likely Response to a Shutdown https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5fd238bc-4906-411a-bca1-a0df7710e563/DBMF+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: DBMF’s calculated exposure indicates that trend followers are reaching fully invested levels. A high equity exposure indicates the fund’s model expects stock prices to rise, so it has increased its long positions in equity index futures (like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, or other global indexes). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2802161d-c60e-497b-878b-7713941f8ac5/10+Percent+Volatility+Target+Equity.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: A high 5-year z-score means the strategy’s current equity exposure is unusually elevated — signaling strong risk appetite or unusually subdued market volatility relative to history. In this case, our view is that it is both. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0d85ae65-d304-435e-bc7b-eeae4c107efb/SP+500+Change+in+sector+level+CY25+EPS.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The winners keep winning. FactSet writes, “ At the sector level, the Information Technology sector has the highest number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance of all 11 sectors at 36. This number is well above the 5-year average of 21.4 and above the 10-year average of 19.5 for the sector. In fact, this is the highest number of companies in the Information Technology sector issuing positive EPS guidance for a quarter since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2006. The previous record was 29, which occurred in the previous quarter (Q2 2025).” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6cdc9302-bb60-4c5c-89be-17bfc2424259/SP+500+Earnings+Growth+CY+2026.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: S&P 500 2026 earnings and revenue growth expectations. Please note that these expectations (or a significant portion of them) are already factored into the current price. It’s a pretty high hurdle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2e3dd954-e205-482f-af59-acefe17f3ce1/Citigroup+Economic+Surprise+Index+US.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index continues to show U.S. economic data beating expectations (on average over the past three months). It is interesting that during the 2020 recession, the CES Index showed economic releases beating estimates. Clearly, this was due to analysts taking their forecasts to basement levels and then becoming too optimistic following the end of the recession. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/756bec06-b550-46bf-a780-972d8ac37665/Economic+Release+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Economic Calendar for the week https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/09f056c7-e448-47b0-a6f1-bdb31df0d6fe/SPX+Black+Chart.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 6, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Another bullish historical perspective. Nonetheless, in our view, we need to get through earnings season first. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-october-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-10-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b036a30f-e8f0-4006-b5ba-e537a5e3c459/US+Treasury.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: CDS rates are increasing, potentially due to U.S. government shutdown concerns. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/54830b98-bee4-47a0-8082-2a34217318f6/TIPS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Inflation expectations are rolling over longer term. Negative for TIPS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6d4f9d34-b945-464d-8422-9259e34000ec/Mortgage+Backed+Securities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: MBS reached overbought levels and reversed. A move below the lower bracket would provide a better setup for increasing exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/85d637cc-fbc2-401d-b20a-cb1e3bb1ca33/Floating+Rate+Note.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Relative momentum for Floating Rate Notes is negative. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a93758ab-7f70-492d-9cdd-04333f81c57b/US+IG+Corporates.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Bond volatility levels are neutral for U.S. IG Corporates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c3bcc6ce-8bd2-49f1-902a-6b926a4f901e/US+High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: We’re closely monitoring the negative reversal in High-Yield bond breadth. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/57023931-dd40-4a07-9fc5-ea04f999f575/International+IG+Corporates.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: International IG Corporate CDS rates are trending higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/22992a3d-b8d6-4399-9d67-888b2ee47ee9/Emerging+Market+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Emerging Market equity momentum has supported EM bond prices. A decline below the 0 line would lead us to reduce exposure. Getting closer. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/45030cc1-e3f1-40df-b285-00c724ad2bd1/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested position (relative to the benchmark). Note: Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ecc85885-d486-4ba2-8a48-337c77ee3e13/Daily+Market+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Investor sentiment is being reset as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A decline below 30 would be a nice setup for a year-end rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-october-06-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-10-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bebbfe71-90c6-4334-af5f-638498ab9c1e/Australia.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Gold continues to rise, which is bullish for Australia’s stock market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a214c46b-122f-4087-bd19-e280a207b06d/Canada.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Canada’s relative strength mean reversion indicator is oversold. A reversal would support a continuation of the recent rally. We require more technical confirmation before adding significant exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a301a03e-84cd-4339-94c6-255d523749f3/China.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Narrow high-yield credit spreads are supportive of risk-on assets like China equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d4e04c53-3a27-4502-9dd5-2aa72ff0617e/France.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Has momentum troughed? Stay tuned. (If our models improve, we’ll increase exposure.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9977ee1e-2fb3-4f95-935b-6a65724f73eb/Germany.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Fund outflows appear to be slowing. If the indicator improves, showing renewed investor interest, we are likely to increase exposure as the models move higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ca376e5a-c066-4d05-bc27-100748467d5b/Japan.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Forward earnings growth expectations are increasing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0dd80dca-c53c-4c23-9e37-1382d2500d6a/Switzerland.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Outflows starting to turn into inflows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3561e1a1-f0d5-492a-89e0-2d1bd44c69c4/UK.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Relative momentum continues to wane in the U.K. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/45030cc1-e3f1-40df-b285-00c724ad2bd1/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ecc85885-d486-4ba2-8a48-337c77ee3e13/Daily+Market+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Investor sentiment is being reset, as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A decline below 30 would be a nice setup for a year-end rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-october-06-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-10-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7efe3dae-a26b-426b-9f6b-13d53678f4b9/Consumer+Discretionary.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Housing starts data have been showing a slight improvement and are now a positive underpinning for the sector. A reversal back below the lower bracket would return the indicator to its neutral position. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a8a58d9b-c585-471c-8065-87cede2e9fe9/Consumer+Staples.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The relative breadth of Consumer Staples has reached “so bad its good” levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/be01c4b9-9932-4f22-9488-8be80ca6199e/Communication+Services.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The Communication Services sector is now overbought on a short-term basis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7acdc30d-e700-4df1-aa44-3013c2228d00/Energy.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Profitability (cash flow trends) is still an issue for the Energy sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6e5572c2-81d1-42ed-a554-85c5fab05ec6/Financials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Business credit conditions pulled back over the first part of the year and have since been rebounding. Constructive for Financials. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/48ba52cd-1291-413a-8b2c-14282a282dc9/Health+Care.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Health Care shows signs of being oversold but hasn’t yet put in a decisive reversal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9b38e0e9-6cd3-4fd5-b77e-1322006a3473/Industrials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Higher commodity prices imply stronger demand, ostensibly from better economic activity. As the chart shows, commodity prices are generally trending higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/07b7830b-3283-46f4-a06b-f31ecff144dd/Information+Technology.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Last month, this indicator was oversold. As of the October 1 update, it has entered overbought territory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6680d159-71ac-4b69-872e-270a02570895/Materials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Historically, better equity performance in Emerging Markets has been bullish for the Materials sector. However, there are signs that DM is gaining ground and EM is rolling over. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7fe1dc6f-70d6-48e0-b7b9-211ca6354847/Real+Estate.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Historically, when the percentage of positive days reaches a low and reverses, the Real Estate sector has done well on a relative basis. At this point, the indicator hasn’t turned. When it does, we’ll look to add exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8f75a17d-114a-4661-bb3d-ac51a2295857/Utilities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The Utilities sector shows signs of reversing from longer-term overbought levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/45030cc1-e3f1-40df-b285-00c724ad2bd1/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ecc85885-d486-4ba2-8a48-337c77ee3e13/Daily+Market+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Investor sentiment is being reset, as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A decline below 30 would be a nice setup for a year-end rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-the-collective-we monthly 0.5 2025-10-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1759241973894-A6ELPQ0O8UZIUJH8HW1C/day-hagan-tech-talk-09.30.2025-flat.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Collective We - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8caa0c09-3c2f-400d-96e4-94852188a349/rspd.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Collective We - Make it stand out Figure 1: Consumer Discretionary proxies. | Withstanding a breakdown below support (green lines), this chart suggests that U.S. consumers are holding their own. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c215b73-6e4b-4726-999e-8b2d29c5b88d/usd.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Collective We - Make it stand out Figure 2: U.S. Dollar Index. | Even with all the disdain for the U.S. Dollar, it hasn’t broken down. Chart configuration has transitioned from Bearish to “Bearish to Neutral.” See commentary within the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4cc197bd-590f-4812-8492-3df8767ac912/pall.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Collective We - Make it stand out Figure 3: Palladium (spot price). | Please refer to the commentary within the chart and continue to manage risk. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-september-29-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-09-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1310ec7e-c65c-4c8b-983a-80cd427bb968/Catastrophic+Stop+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 Figure 1: The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model is neutral at 50%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b2f01a6e-b737-4cf6-8931-2f7155d53047/DH+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e2b9be29-70f3-4ccc-8539-84d9a23aac06/SPX++SP+500+6643.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: RSI levels for the SPX are more overbought than oversold on a shorter-term horizon. Overbought can stay overbought for a long time. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2287059d-cbea-4e39-9fb4-f2209ff1b0cf/CBOE+Volatility+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Equity volatility still muted, according to VIX. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/155806d3-588f-445b-9ce1-a5992914baf8/MOVE+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The MOVE index is currently constructive for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2b5f4e7a-e6bf-487d-9ba6-72b8c098d336/10+Percent+Volatility+Target.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Historically, market gains are strongest from low levels of positioning. The markets aren’t there yet. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8a5a89cd-6ece-48a7-a0aa-021737291084/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Gamma matters short-term. Especially when adjusting portfolio holdings. Use it to your advantage. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a3424ca8-7936-48dd-9ce9-921c1e8f0ad3/ICE+BofA+US+Corporate+OAS.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: U.S. Corporate spreads tight. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/808ccba4-d1f6-4cde-a99a-e493e3f87604/ICE+BofA+US+High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: U.S. High Yield spreads tight. Supported in part by the recent rally in small-cap stocks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cf69b9e0-6170-413d-8fc2-691689c66bfe/ICE+BofA+Euro+High+Yield+OAS.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Even Europe's high-yield spreads are tight. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1b92a4c5-21dc-41db-ae87-f4fe5eba029f/ICE+BofA+High+Yield+Emerging+Markets.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Yes, EM high-yield spreads are at the party. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2348880d-5a20-4a52-bff0-ecd2dc9ec476/SP500+Cycle+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Based on a combination of cycles, the S&P 500 is closing in on a historically strong period. Of course, the buyback blackout period and earnings season will have a great influence. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3805b60f-e650-4e59-8e11-abaef3f2703b/SP+500+Index+Total+Percent+Returns.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: A more detailed look at seasonality. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e32a3c63-4934-4d56-bacd-b09ad4efcf50/Atlanta+Fed+GDP+Now.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: U.S. economic growth is OK for now. The flash Manufacturing (52.0) and Services (53.9) PMIs are in expansion territory (expansion when the composite is >50). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c60d9e42-e892-426c-9ed3-41ce93c2f452/Financial+Stress+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 15: The index shows financial conditions are still supportive of equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/597b9523-7db4-4f90-89f1-aa644df609b9/Initial+Claims.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 16: Weekly initial unemployment claims continue to point to a balanced job market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c7d7eb74-26a4-4283-abb3-233fa186b9dd/Money+Market+Funds+Total+Financial+Assets.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 17: While systematic and algo positioning is elevated, it's important to note that there are still significant pockets of cash on the sidelines. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c52c235d-1ab9-429c-a04b-c0ef199668f1/Global+Private+Equity+Dry+Powder.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 18: More cash is actively looking to be deployed. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/886c98b9-405f-4cc8-835c-812e303757e8/Earnings+revisions+breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 19: Earnings revisions trends remain constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5f251a1a-1ff1-4112-a1bb-d827bf055e17/Calendar+of+Economic+Releases.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 20: Upcoming economic data. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/db5bb8a2-9b85-43a0-8691-36aceddf66c3/SP+500+returns+around+governmnet+shutdowns.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 29, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 21: The table below details S&P 500 performance around government shutdowns. Our view is that investors largely dismiss shutdowns as a short-term issue, and the prevailing trend is expected to continue once shutdown-related volatility subsides. (Source: E.D. Jones) https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-september-24-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-09-25 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-september-22-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-09-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/06dc2688-0312-4aa7-a247-b81f236a6bed/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 Figure 1: The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model is neutral at 50%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/15bb8d42-5737-40bf-83d8-5b0897db11ff/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment remains in the neutral zone. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7217a0b1-e17b-48ad-bb14-9045d994e37d/10+Percent+Vol-targeted+Equity.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Systematic and algo-driven strategies equity exposure near max levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/afa0a525-e7fa-45e2-a853-fce910808070/SPX+SP500+RSI.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Overbought conditions back in play near term. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/90aaebd2-7ccb-4526-b04f-a217821e3e57/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: SPX Gamma condition is positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5cb5c0cd-306d-4f6a-8f26-c9c596e5524a/CBOE+Volatility+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: CBOE Volatility Index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e844ef69-3c86-4531-bbe5-a17c1e566a9f/Move+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: MOVE Index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c32f8406-2d14-4aa5-b0f2-722353970c5e/Fed+Funds+rate+forecast.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Investors are expecting the Fed Funds rate to be 3.06% this time next year. (Steetstats.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e8b0fb1f-5a78-411f-8862-99e7ee0343a8/ICE+BofA+US+High+Yield+Index+OAS.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: U.S. High Yield OAS still tight. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/faa11327-15c4-46eb-b992-5721faa7cdbb/ICE+BofA+Euro+High+Yield+OAS.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Euro High Yield OAS is still tight. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/efb38f3b-47c7-4fcb-bba2-86147211ffe8/US+Dollar+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: U.S. dollar index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ce54d1a8-d615-4b2d-87a8-53f7d1fc72a8/Earnings+Revision+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: 3-month net earnings breadth is strong at the highest level in 20 years. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2809663c-a12a-47dc-9819-c6c27856ebeb/sp500-cycle-composite-2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Calendar of Economic Releases https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8d0d1e18-b0db-4dd0-a993-75ac4a663cec/economic-data.jpg Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Upcoming economic data. Is it me, or are there a lot of Fed members wanting to be seen and heard? This week, we’ll be focused on Tuesday’s Flash PMIs and Powell speaking, Thursday’s Initial Unemployment Claims, and Friday’s PCE data. Housing remains an issue, so both new and existing home sales data will be of interest. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-comfortably-numb-sept-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-09-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/80454caa-903a-47ec-95ff-0b4f8618396a/day-hagan-tech-talk-09.17.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Comfortably Numb - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/57d78c83-4103-4ced-b25f-47f958b5550e/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Comfortably Numb - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | Please refer to the verbiage and levels shown inside the chart. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-september-15-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-09-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9b83e8a2-dd9e-464e-8c20-0e210d178dae/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 Figure 1: The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model is neutral at 50%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bcc90e80-6b45-49a5-bec7-68237d2ac1d3/DH+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment continues to reverse from the recent peak in excessive optimism. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c4b35cfa-1a91-49d7-bd17-12d3d6027be5/10%25+volatility+targeting.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Vol-targeting funds’ aggregate equity exposure toward the middle of the 8-year range, but a bit extended if looking at just the past five years. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ec40302f-d263-4730-aec6-3374d986b48c/Major+Index+Combo.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Hedging activity is viewed as neutral. We would be much more concerned if hedging levels were low. Sentimentrader writes, “This chart reflects positions of hedgers and small speculators in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and DJIA futures. It combines the full contract and e-mini, adjusting for contract size, and calculates the dollar value. The chart as shown is a one-year stochastic of hedger positions minus speculator positions, so if it reads 100, then hedgers are the most exposed to stocks in at least a year, and speculators are the least exposed. This is computed as a non-contrary indicator, so when the Combo is extremely high (an indicator reading above 80), it can be a good sign for stocks. Conversely, readings below 20 are usually a negative sign for stocks.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0f7bb20f-5103-4546-8b12-2aeeeb30e189/SP+500+Combo+Hedgers+Position.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: S&P 500 hedging is neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/42a87827-5539-4f41-9c62-a73b6055e80d/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Below 6,463 (not shown on the chart), volatility would likely increase. (Note: This figure changes daily.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/acded81b-5ded-4780-89c4-a3d8a0f0776d/SPX+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Expected move based on 85% of the value of the at-the-money-straddle. Source: Barchart https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0b2571e6-c66b-4a20-8c93-f4da363afa44/Earnings+Revision+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: S&P 500 earnings revision breadth = (Upward Revisions – Downward Revisions) / Total Revisions. Constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/60b0afb1-20c5-4ad7-8245-483f34f1a755/SP+500+Valuation+Heatmap.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Continued earnings growth and the potential for lower rates are constructive in the longer term. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/39444ddb-e43a-429a-80a4-cc3a5a0c5423/Citigroup+Economic+Surprise+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Economic reports for the U.S. have generally been better than expected, but the level recently peaked. Watching closely. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dc11b4e5-9722-4bca-bd8b-6c860724ab46/Atlanta+Fed+GDPNow+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Atlanta Fed GDPNow = so far, so good for Q3 economic activity. Current reading is +3.1% (personal consumption and private domestic investment are solid). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4eec640b-fa38-4271-bcc3-e2aefc62682c/Weekly+Economic+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: WEI forecasting trend economic growth. The WEI reading of 2.24 percent suggests that GDP has increased by 2.24% compared to the same period last year. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cba7dc10-e1ee-4ded-9d4d-62dac7af9afe/st-louis-fed-financial-stress-index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: War, tariffs, BBB, trade tensions, political turmoil, and a spike in energy prices weren’t enough to stress out the financial markets for more than a few days this year. But we are monitoring the recent increase. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2cea6424-1f45-4b11-a24c-9cfad71e9965/5-year+Breakeven+Inflation+Rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: The annual inflation rate has ticked up from 2.73% in July to 2.93% in August, but the 10-year Treasury yield has declined from 4.79% in January to 4.06% today. This indicates that the bond market is looking past potential inflation hiccups and focusing on rate cuts. Three cuts are now priced in over the rest of 2025. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1381ee25-8729-4e74-944a-6646d37b0f1c/Table+of+economic+releases.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Calendar of Economic Releases https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-nothings-changed-beat-goes-on monthly 0.5 2025-09-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1757529973707-DCF8VL3E4E0UIFDHSK34/day-hagan-tech-talk-09.10.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Nothing’s Changed as The Beat Goes On - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/77bec441-035c-4ac4-a114-0b7bea2577d9/indu.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Nothing’s Changed as The Beat Goes On - Make it stand out Figure 1: The Jones. | Please refer to the comments in the chart and the areas of support (green and blue lines) and resistance (red lines). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/89cfe39a-38a9-48a0-9451-5c511365fbd5/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Nothing’s Changed as The Beat Goes On - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Index Movers and Small Cap proxy. | Please refer to the comments inside the chart, and the areas of support (green and blue lines/arrows) and resistance (red lines). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ecebe09a-ffae-4200-94c6-0db2f46132a1/tnx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Nothing’s Changed as The Beat Goes On - Make it stand out Figure 3: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Index and Treasury Bond Proxy. | Both charts have been “neutrally” configured for a while and continue to be so. Red lines depict resistance and green lines depict support. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-september-9-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-09-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f362e323-5a78-46c5-ae93-d25d48e9f59e/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 9, 2025 Figure 1: The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model is neutral at 50%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7d5b817d-ce0e-460c-8a27-9d796cbbbffb/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment continues to reverse from the recent peak in excessive optimism. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/988e3f60-26c9-42e4-80cc-233768e287e0/SPX+SP500.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: RSI levels are at the high end of the neutral range on a 21-day basis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/072c0a97-a287-4466-beab-d675b0fe65a4/SP500+Constituents+Above+50+and+200.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Breadth and participation indicators are largely neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dda7d2bc-4b14-4d55-a473-d4b510e5d06d/SPX+Volatility+Term+Structure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Implied vol above Historic vol is, in our view, appropriate given the news flow over the next couple of days. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f25fd694-171e-4e9e-bbea-2aeb76401afd/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Look for vol to increase quickly below 6,439. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eae14e32-ab29-4ff5-bee1-6e4be48012f1/United+States+2Y.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Are the 2-year and 5-year rates going to break below support? We’re watching closely. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c1b47b9b-8278-47d3-8ddf-96d20875bfbe/Corporate+Bonds+Investment+Grade+and+High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Investment Grade and High Yield Corporate Bond spreads at the low end of the 5-year range. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/26ea3eca-0679-485a-88d1-7765ceb1b852/High+Yield+OAS+MACD.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: High-Yield OAS MACD indicator remains on a buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/54063aa6-b53f-4dbe-a570-eda2ba1e49ff/United+States.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: A rising tide often lifts all boats. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d08f1aac-f94e-4dd8-9beb-f43d16a92c60/USD-Japanese+Yen.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Foreign currency gains have supported international investments (from a U.S. perspective). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fd4724ad-e9cf-41b6-a8cf-459905e0e0e5/Earnings+revision+breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: S&P 500 3-month earnings breadth is bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5b409cf5-6234-447e-bf50-b3d1db5a2ad7/Earnings+release+calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 9, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Calendar of Economic Releases https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-september-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-09-08 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-september-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-09-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ad1e1e77-4d10-4128-a776-7f7f2c33f1fb/US+Treasuries.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: CDS rates picked up earlier in the year and appear to be reversing lower. This is constructive for bonds overall. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/88dd7da4-e6a6-4903-bc58-036530c9c4f2/TIPS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Inflation expectations have picked up. A reversal in inflation expectations below the upper SD bracket would be negative for TIPS and positive for other fixed income sectors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0d17c009-20f5-4155-a7df-4f13700dc48f/MBS+Mortgage+Backed+Securities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: MBS is approaching overbought levels but still has upside potential before reaching the signal threshold. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ccf60f9e-ca73-40d3-8c7d-1be68fecfb64/US+Floating+Rate+Notes.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Relative momentum for Floating Rate Notes is negative. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7415eb66-a38c-446d-b889-495f063e286c/US+IG+Corporates.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Rising bond volatility is a headwind for U.S. IG Corporates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/936ee3f1-24a2-47a4-877b-56511304cc4b/US+High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: We’re closely monitoring a potential reversal in High-Yield bond breadth. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c744cd94-9aaa-4c55-8034-6c9cbb543fcc/International+IG+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: International IG Corporate CDS rates are trending higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d2f07254-3d34-4ef8-a465-8ce99073948b/Emerging+Market+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Emerging Market equity momentum has supported EM bond prices. A decline below the 0 line would lead us to reduce exposure. Getting closer. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c159f059-fd04-4109-8ad5-643c7257caf0/catastrophic-stop-vs-sp500-total-return.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested position (relative to the benchmark). Note: Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7d510a24-dee6-46d0-8f9e-794f4be3a3a4/sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Investor sentiment is being reset as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A decline below 30 would be a nice setup for a year-end rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-september-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-09-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5f160dc4-d074-4274-9faa-3648ed8fc386/Australia.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: A new uptrend in gold prices would be bullish for Australia’s stock market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/32fcfc2f-2965-49d9-8b98-801fdca0ef04/Canada.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Canada’s relative strength mean reversion indicator is oversold. A reversal would support a continuation of the recent rally. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/973d933c-7778-480b-9e6b-b1f8f56494fc/China.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Narrow high-yield credit spreads are supportive of risk-on assets like China equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a2ff48f6-f4fb-4913-aa7b-6f197c0049ad/France.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Breadth has rolled over and is negative for French equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f736f3f9-b3b8-48b3-a584-3cd45400094f/Germany.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Germany’s Manufacturing Confidence Composite is improving relative to the rest of the world, potentially setting the stage for another leg higher. We’ll need more technical confirmation before increasing exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4f13ec4f-6c03-4b69-bf71-8a933d9a3a2f/Japan.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Sentiment continues to improve from recent extreme pessimism levels. This is constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ea0f8d35-5dc3-4b56-8375-663ea3a30ab6/Switzerland.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Momentum has been exceedingly weak but is at levels historically consistent with major turns. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4d2ed73d-ac7d-4661-b7ba-1c600f1b21e5/UK.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Credit spreads in the U.K. are starting to widen a bit. We’re watching closely for signs that the trend extends. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c159f059-fd04-4109-8ad5-643c7257caf0/catastrophic-stop-vs-sp500-total-return.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7d510a24-dee6-46d0-8f9e-794f4be3a3a4/sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Investor sentiment is being reset as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A decline below 30 would be a nice setup for a year-end rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-september-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-09-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0dcb7a53-3d13-47a0-92e2-a1cbd5b9504d/Consumer+Discretionary.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Relative price momentum continues to favor the Consumer Discretionary sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8ead2be8-dc0d-4829-bc08-21f61d53b406/Consumer+Staples.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The relative breadth of Consumer Staples remains in a downtrend. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2b9ec673-de80-4b70-9b7f-e1fbb13b09d6/Communication+Services.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Perhaps surprisingly, the Communication Services sector is not at max overbought levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/beaafb12-a82e-4dfa-8eec-810b67a2f103/Energy.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Profitability (cash flow trends) is still an issue for the Energy sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e944fefa-1d10-4c13-9850-df24e932b86f/Financials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Business credit conditions pulled back over the first part of the year and have since been rebounding. Constructive for Financials. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bcce7637-ed25-47cc-8ba3-03e5978a97f5/Health+Care.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: As discussed last month, the Health Care sector is oversold. We’re noting signs of a reversal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9b38e0e9-6cd3-4fd5-b77e-1322006a3473/Industrials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Valuation based on cash flow yield is becoming more expensive (lower yield = more expensive). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3366f455-4c79-4526-8a76-1862018cc4e8/Information+Technology.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The Information Technology sector is now relatively oversold. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9bbb0bc2-d940-4196-bf65-4830ea383fad/Materials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Historically, better equity performance in Emerging Markets has been bullish for the Materials sector. However, there are signs that DM is gaining ground and EM is rolling over. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/31d4d689-1205-42ae-a5c4-b6430e6c7da0/Real+Estate.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Credit conditions for small businesses are still positive but becoming less so. A reversal indicating improving conditions would support additional exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/acb2caf4-4437-4e99-b8eb-75508214e182/Utilities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The Utilities sector shows signs of reversing from longer-term overbought levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c159f059-fd04-4109-8ad5-643c7257caf0/catastrophic-stop-vs-sp500-total-return.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7d510a24-dee6-46d0-8f9e-794f4be3a3a4/sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Investor sentiment is being reset as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A decline below 30 would be a nice setup for a year-end rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-short-term-headwinds-blowing monthly 0.5 2025-09-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a7b9033-aefc-4801-9902-6331107b08fe/day-hagan-tech-talk-09.03.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Short-Term Headwinds Blowing - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0e134584-ba2b-48c4-bfeb-c5296a317920/compq-nasdaq-composiite.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Short-Term Headwinds Blowing - Make it stand out Figure 1: NASDAQ and rising 50-day MA and 200-day MA. | Don’t anticipate a breakdown. Wait for support to be broken with an expansion of volume. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-august-12-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-09-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/52815763-c39c-49d5-84a1-ad572f62e74d/DH+Catastrophic+Stop+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 12, 2025 Figure 1: DH Catastrophic Stop Model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b9655e48-8ec3-4474-8bed-6f40b46e3dcf/Oversold+Mean+Reversion.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 12, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Breadth Thrust and Oversold Mean Reversion Composites are both rated neutral as their maximum bullish impact periods have expired. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bffc2dce-960f-4803-9886-0b94dcf98501/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 12, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Investor sentiment is being reset as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cc0175ec-5372-4287-9376-54f081b69837/SP500+MACD+40+and+200+day.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 12, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The 40-day/200-day MACD has been effective at positioning on the right side of major trends. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2fade56b-6b3a-4dd1-b9dd-59b301387041/Russell+3000+Volume+Demand+and+Supply.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 12, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Equity demand is still rated as bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5f6c1f4a-81e3-41b1-ac6d-7a7d490e5129/High+Yield+OAS+MACD.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 12, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: If credit spreads start to widen, it will be a caution sign. Currently, the indicator remains bullish. A move above the zero threshold would be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/824e79c5-9474-4bb8-bc36-2d4ff201e1e7/10+Percent+Volatility+Targeting+Implied+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 12, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Institutional investors have reduced equity exposure and are less leveraged than one might think, with the S&P 500 near ATHs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6e153f4f-e14d-4ea9-ae2c-4966a4a47429/SP500+Q2+Earnigns+Growth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 12, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Earnings growth expectations continue to rise. Bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/19fe116b-6255-447c-8d90-7a3a1cfcf1f2/Evolution+of+Atlanta+Fed+GDPNow.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 12, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Economic growth is OK. Lower rates will be stimulative. We’re likely to see more “Don’t Fight the Fed” banners. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ec6b4585-e962-44bb-95cb-a74b091c2744/Number+of+SP500+Companies+Citing+Recession.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 12, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Far fewer companies are citing “recession” during their Q2 earnings calls than during Q1. It's interesting how hopes for rate cuts can change a narrative. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/81a1a31d-78f0-41f5-847e-6e330bb3cb69/Table+A+Percent+Changes+in+CPI.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 12, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Food away from home, fuel oil, used car and truck prices, shelter, transportation services, and medical care services increases don’t jibe with what I’m seeing in Sarasota, Florida. For example, housing inventories and car/truck inventories are building (and dealers are offering significant incentives). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/60818839-6063-40b0-ba1c-ced7687d4f6b/Small+Business+Optimism+Index+Components.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 12, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The results of the NFIB Small Business survey are encouraging. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f9a3b3e6-4640-42ca-95b6-f31022a945d0/Calendar+of+Economic+Releases.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 12, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Calendar of Economic Releases https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-september-2-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-09-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d80b0cfa-9ad2-4ed8-b497-665b334aacab/Catastrophic+Stop+9-2-2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 2, 2025 Figure 1: DH Catastrophic Stop Model. The model's neutral level allows it to potentially trigger a sell signal more rapidly if conditions warrant. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d7119383-6c37-469f-9995-a2b74cf26c96/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Investor sentiment is being reset as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. A decline below 30 would be a nice setup for a year-end rally. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c2f560bf-6822-4075-bac6-94af5ea66be2/SP500+Cycle+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Seasonality is rated as a minor headwind. History reminds us that September tends to be one of the toughest months for stocks. Over the past decade, the S&P 500 has often stumbled this time of year. When the index closes in August at an all-time high, September has been negative 14 of 18 times, with an average loss of -1.6%. For investors, this doesn’t necessarily call for exiting positions—but it does suggest a month where patience and risk management are key. Pullbacks could offer buying opportunities in favored areas. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7b92d61e-06ab-46ad-8525-6348c6414aed/SPX+Index+Total+Percent+Returns.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Historical SPX monthly returns. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/731b9727-ae36-48b5-9fd1-9db358ec911e/CBOE+Volatility+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: VIX getting close to 20, a potentially important inflection point. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4650ba45-8641-46f3-9b7b-d694c817c1d0/SPX+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Expected move based on 85% of the at-the-money straddle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ba2ba137-de27-4cb6-8214-de3a98a82e1d/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: SPX Gamma data indicates a negative gamma condition. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dc991bcc-fd67-4b80-8a5c-f33ad01e438e/Atlanta+Fed+GDPNow+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP Estimate indicates above-trend annualized growth in Q3. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eeda5d4e-e9ca-49bd-bb64-f58ad5fd35ce/Inflation+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Inflation is sticky, but likely not a deterrent to a rate cut or two. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dffc843f-0ffa-440e-b1ea-e4c79772baf1/Earnings+Revision+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Earnings estimates continue to be revised higher on average. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/58b80b38-7283-4d5b-9e1b-e6e3b34ee8d8/us-economic-releases.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 2, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Upcoming U.S. economic releases. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-august-27-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-08-28 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-august-25-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-08-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/31d0725f-cb80-454b-8888-e1bde060a544/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 25, 2025 Figure 1: DH Catastrophic Stop Model. The model's neutral level allows it to potentially trigger a sell signal more rapidly if conditions warrant. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c88a26cc-3479-4d16-93e7-add3d4a0c2b3/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Investor sentiment is being reset as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/58dd6c24-cbc4-4b00-9757-b733789ce94c/DBMF+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: DBMF’s calculated exposure indicates that trend followers are reaching fully invested levels. This coincides with the recent overly optimistic readings from our Sentiment Composite. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c53e7591-7144-4132-bc5c-3f75f620236b/10+Volatility+Target+Equity+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Systematic investors are at the high end of the 7-year equity exposure range. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/845ef49e-105c-4cdf-9d30-02e23c4b89d3/Major+Index+Combo.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Hedging activity is viewed as neutral. We would be much more concerned if hedging levels were low. Sentimentrader writes, “This chart reflects positions of hedgers and small speculators in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and DJIA futures. It combines the full contract and e-mini, adjusting for contract size, and calculates the dollar value. The chart as shown is a one-year stochastic of hedger positions minus speculator positions, so if it reads 100, then hedgers are the most exposed to stocks in at least a year, and speculators are the least exposed. This is computed as a non-contrary indicator, so when the Combo is extremely high (an indicator reading above 80), it can be a good sign for stocks. Conversely, readings below 20 are usually a negative sign for stocks.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d996014-2861-46e9-aabe-997671bb0128/SP500+Combo+Hedgers.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: S&P 500 hedging is neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/53050256-f4f2-48b4-93b4-18aed317b9b1/Russell+2000+Mini+Hedgers.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Small-cap stocks were very hedged heading into last Friday. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/db0c9252-4bba-43f3-99c5-a0feab99adec/SPX+Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Below 6,378, volatility would likely increase. (Note: This figure changes daily.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/587ae91c-f3a7-4c8a-83e4-e512a490870a/Earnings+Revision+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: S&P 500 earnings revision breadth = (Upward Revisions – Downward Revisions) / Total Revisions. Constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6ce20de5-1ab1-4764-bc91-93a1363d9af5/Flash+PMIs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: PMIs provide a monthly look at the manufacturing and services sectors of the economy. Both are in expansion modes (above 50). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/523a4372-73bb-4e2c-9856-f918e74e2bd6/SP500+After+Fed+Cuts+with+Core+CPI+above+3+and+Rising.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Concerns around the Fed cutting into rising inflation may be overly pessimistic. (Source: 3Fourteen Research) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3aa9c2a3-5823-4ce6-9133-f7b27d25909d/Upcoming-US-economic-releases.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Upcoming U.S. economic releases. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-are-we-talking-missouri monthly 0.5 2025-09-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1755702585038-6I5KSQDU0FNDW296RQKY/day-hagan-tech-talk-08.20.2025-1200x675px-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are We Talking Missouri? - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/efea2046-98bd-4094-83ec-036ffcbd23b5/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are We Talking Missouri? - Make it stand out Figure 1: Domestic Equity Market Indices/Proxies. | Green lines = support. Red lines = resistance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/941f5c63-97c4-4c21-8bb7-118a72c2a6e4/xlk.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are We Talking Missouri? - Make it stand out Figure 2: Domestic Equity Market Sector Proxies. | Green lines = support. Red lines = resistance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f5ff8e45-1ed6-4d87-9ae2-2a83318315ae/xlv.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are We Talking Missouri? - Make it stand out Figure 3: Domestic Equity Market Sector Proxies. | Green lines = support. Red lines = resistance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4cf41710-84c2-4e81-9b31-792796d9e127/xle.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are We Talking Missouri? - Make it stand out Figure 4: Domestic Equity Market Sector/Group Proxies. | Green lines = support. Red lines = resistance. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-august-18-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-08-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4d8bfb4d-2d0b-43ed-9f37-d95dcaf0fd54/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 18, 2025 Figure 1: DH Catastrophic Stop Model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/25099d01-fc57-451b-b408-81b6a995eb03/SP500+US+Agg+MACD.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Stock/Bond relative strength indicates equity momentum may be rolling over. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/826fac8d-f311-4a43-a082-433646dd6f39/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Investor sentiment is being reset as illustrated by the DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite declining below 70. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/806844b8-1d28-46b1-914e-42ae2fd7db05/SP500+MACD+40+200.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Longer-term trend indicators continue to rate the uptrend as intact. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c3733d09-cb46-49c3-b06e-eb1d5ec9bda3/SPX+SP500+6446.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: RSI levels consistent with modestly overbought conditions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/98fd3382-e5eb-4a0e-9257-90c511a26e53/SP500+Cycle+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: S&P 500 Cycle Composite based on an average of the 1-year, 4-year, and decennial cycles (trend is more important than levels). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6ce0b3fd-0d9f-445e-9f7d-a3a426930506/SPX+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Option pricing and declining volatility backdrop illustrate growing investor complacency. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4f81e16d-3821-4cf1-ae93-0ea467e727a8/SPX+Gamma+Exposure+by+Strike.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Gamma exposure by strike. A decline below 6,388 (or similar levels, depending on the options structure at the time) might cause a volatility spike. We’re monitoring this closely. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ee73a12b-ed07-4fae-bcdc-848aba77c08b/Earnings+Revision+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Earnings revisions are constructive. The trend is your friend. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1c7f2e6f-dfa3-42e5-88b1-70a281584e8e/Citigroup+Economic+Surprise+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Economic reports for the U.S. have generally been better than expected. Constructive so far, but last week’s PPI, Industrial Production, and retail sales results underwhelmed. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cac46192-8443-4429-bcef-9218df22a711/Fed+Funds+Rate+Forecast.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Fed funds rate expected to drop below 4% by November and head lower to 3.11% by August 2027. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2fcc47c1-36ad-4a86-94bd-8d437240cbaf/US+Dollar+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: A weaker U.S. dollar is positive for earnings. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8918f14c-9662-40f8-a573-713dd07c9d7a/Table+of+Economic+Releases.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Calendar of Economic Releases https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-like-a-hot-knife-through-butter monthly 0.5 2025-08-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1755096042750-SGHLOARGCJ6AP7B2RFG2/day-hagan-tech-talk-08.13.2025-1200x675px-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9108c461-e28f-45c8-a39f-ef124819b62d/nyse-common-stock-only.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 and Various Advance-Decline Lines (A/D Lines). | Please review the comments in the chart. There is a lot to focus on and monitor. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/47433cb2-06ea-446e-8f88-517f9d2455b1/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with rising 50-day MA support. | Please refer to the comments in the chart. Also, a pocket of initial downside support exists between 6213 and 6150. Stabilization below support would increase the odds of a deeper pullback, but not until then. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-trifecta monthly 0.5 2025-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1754489097877-KYGKCV1Q17LQUKGXSRE9/day-hagan-tech-talk-08.06.2025-1200x675px-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Trifecta - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/53299dc6-f06a-4c80-9850-6eacb9e5aa6c/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Trifecta - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 with a rising 50-day MA. | Support hasn’t been violated yet. Be willing to acknowledge potential downside volatility this month, as August and September are known for volatility. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ea2905d5-3d8c-4bd1-97ed-d9df53b44b46/lumber.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Trifecta - Make it stand out Figure 2: Lumber. | This weekly chart includes a rising 10-week (50-day) MA (dashed blue line) above a rising 40-week (200-day) MA (solid green line). https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-august-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-08-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b268021f-b840-4723-8b5d-bae636824104/US+Treasuries.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Strength in the U.S. dollar is supporting foreign investment. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aa6d9533-fa0e-4d82-9979-878a9c187eb4/TIPS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Inflation expectations are perking up but expected to be transitory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3e3b43b8-d1f2-4a15-a02a-4e2b0042ce44/US+Mortgage+Backed.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Tight High-Yield OAS support MBS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f14716db-f8f2-41c8-94c5-7bf42b647a77/Floating+Rate+Note.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Lower OIS swap rates indicate investors setting up for rate cuts. The recent move is minimal but closing in on the recent lows for the series since 2023. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e6168da0-0eac-469e-8088-a1a7a1930781/US+Investment+Grade.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: U.S. Investment Grade Corporates have moved slightly higher on a relative basis. Given the long-term downtrend in place, we are monitoring closely for signs of a breakout or a reversal back into the relative downtrend. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7d598794-407c-4bd7-96cd-29429e754605/US+High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weakness in small-cap stocks is negative for high-yield bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/67ded325-9459-4dd0-befd-936cac27ca0e/International+IG+Corporate+Bond.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: International IG Corporate trends are indicating a negative short-term reversal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9c35ad78-2bc0-4291-a7b5-8e46dd8cb56b/Emerging+Market+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Emerging Market equity momentum has supported EM bond prices. A decline below the 0 line would lead us to reduce exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d7d4e7a5-c57a-49ed-94b8-6c85c96899a7/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested position (relative to the benchmark). Note: Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/51ace11a-1299-45de-9b4d-f213e4e72c19/DH+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-august-5-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-08-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d7d4e7a5-c57a-49ed-94b8-6c85c96899a7/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 Figure 1: DH Catastrophic Stop Model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/37d7ead6-f51d-4f10-8716-a6d72b9f919c/DH+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Excessive optimism is waning, in line with our view that the market is likely to take a breather. A decline below 70 would generate a short-term sell signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/84b4986e-92b8-4444-baf5-2f5ae41547ef/SPY+SPDR+S%26P+500.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The S&P 500 is still more overbought than oversold, but extreme readings have moderated (source: Barchart). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/46e8244c-e071-4b55-9f01-95c379412c29/RSP+Invesco+S%26P+500+Equal+Weight.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: RSP hasn’t quite recaptured it’s 21-day MA. Note that stronger rallies have tended to ignite when the RSI is closer to the 30 level. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a09ff191-8edd-45f9-8e64-faa0bf97961e/SP500+Constituents+above+50+and+200+day+MA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out gure 5: Short-term and longer-term breadth indicators are more neutral (source: StreetStats) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d8a6458c-6bf0-4739-8dbd-0ebb25203172/10+Percent+Volatility+Targeting.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Funds targeting 10% volatility have an implied equity allocation of 100.8%, which is also toward the higher end of the historical range shown. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/377c7d11-0ee3-48ab-9c43-8868579ae59d/DBMF+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Systematic and algo-driven strategies leaning toward being more fully invested. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/301e4bb0-93e7-4b06-9eb7-815281e72828/20d+change+in+GS+PB+Gross+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Equity exposure among institutional investors is relatively high, but off the peak. This chart shows how quickly the backdrop of supply and demand can shift. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9965fad6-3ccf-4043-9f2a-be09cfd54e90/VIX.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: VIX levels quickly reversed back below the widely-watched 20 level. Constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/adfe38f3-6628-469a-aab4-4b091003df2e/SPX+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The upper and lower range levels for the August 15 OPEX are 6,244 and 6,439. Note: Projected levels become more meaningful as OPEX approaches (source: Barchart). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b7e004e8-7d50-4f72-bf90-76d610a0b207/SP500+Forward+12+Month+Earnings.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Earnings tracking the no-recession path on the way to all-time highs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/14524b46-f830-4a27-8eec-9fed538f42eb/SP500+When+Forward+EPS+near+all+time+highs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Since 1990, when S&P 500 Forward 12-month EPS have been within 1% of an all-time high, the index gained at a 12.4% annualized rate, and the max drawdown was significantly reduced. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/882a4e86-9892-4af6-aa4f-ee25963a2200/SP500+Earnings+Growth+Q2+2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Earnings estimates being revised higher for Q2. Only Utilities, Health Care, and Materials have moved lower. (Note: The earnings turnaround for Consumer Discretionary is particularly impressive.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/821f19e2-3887-4b81-b2cd-aa13675f055e/SP500+Earnings+Growth+Q3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Q3 y/y earnings growth estimates also moving higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4b989978-fddd-44ef-93d1-8825eda3b7d6/SP500+Forward+PE.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Valuations remain a significant concern, underscoring our commitment to disciplined investing. Our quantitative models mitigate emotional biases, ensuring alignment with prevailing market trends and maintaining a strategic, data-driven approach. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3c807724-7bda-4c37-b8da-27fe9ba1e852/Fed+Funds+Rate+Forecast.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 16: Investors love lower rates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b672564a-b64f-4788-a8a8-556da69cb010/Atlanta+Fed+GDPNow.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 17: Atlanta Fed GDPNow = so far, so good for Q3 economic activity. But it’s still early. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0f668026-d1d1-4c2f-9f91-6b713434a7d3/Weekly+Economic+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 18: WEI forecasting trend economic growth. The WEI reading of 2.56 percent suggests that GDP has increased 2.56% higher than a year previously. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cda0231a-678f-4a75-8904-ead86a8c3d90/St+Louis+Financial+Stress+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 19: War, tariffs, BBB, trade tensions, political turmoil, and a spike in energy prices weren’t enough to stress out the financial markets for more than a day or two this year. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/826da077-de71-48cd-822f-53440143c4cf/Smoothed+U.S.+Recession+Probabilities.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 20: The U.S. Recession Probability Model remains constructive for U.S. economic activity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/560fa915-7547-41dc-a219-4af59aa40d3b/5-year-breakeven-inflation-rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 21: The annual inflation rate has ticked up from 2.3% in April to 2.7% in June, but the 10-year Treasury yield has declined from 4.79% in January to 4.22% today. This indicates that the bond market is looking past potential inflation hiccups. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/46f580f2-9c16-44bb-a3ab-d5551de96fc7/Economic+Reports+table.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 22: We’ll be focusing on the 10-year bond auction, unemployment claims, and the 30-year bond auction this week. Notwithstanding earnings’ reports. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-august-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-08-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a7e39b0c-2a48-457e-a341-68211c2fc35e/Australia.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: A new uptrend in gold prices would be bullish for Australia’s stock market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1a43753a-c4d5-4e72-9a3e-82fb3b0a4ec2/Canada.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: An increase in Canada’s relative earnings yield would indicate that investors are assigning a higher multiple to the region, indicating growing demand and confidence. We’re looking for the short-term MA (10 days) to cross above the longer-term MA (160 days). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3b126353-6f4f-4009-aa87-a67c5ae58d3a/China.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Relative price momentum on the cusp of a buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0f64b58f-3295-4200-afaa-90cb87a02eb9/France.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: France continues to see outflows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6dd4a5b9-a70d-4b4c-950f-07c8edda9f02/Germany.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Germany’s relative valuation (based on dividend yield) is extended. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/862c40e7-8c18-4d6d-917e-51fe078aa5d1/Japan.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Sentiment is reversing from extreme pessimism levels. This is constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/73768fc7-f42d-4c1a-a95a-091bbb3b02cb/Switzerland.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Momentum has been exceedingly weak but is at levels historically consistent with major turns. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b4aa24fa-bfb6-41d0-895c-368aedec81d3/UK.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Trend improvement indicates growing investor interest. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fb3a8b4f-e7ea-41e5-a40b-1c057b488f36/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/049579c1-a97d-428e-a641-a04118a424dc/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-august-5-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-08-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/00e37618-4e98-44cc-883e-8437cb7fb828/Consumer+Discretionary.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized appears to be stabilizing. This is constructive for the Consumer Discretionary sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7e19c480-9cc6-4534-9e70-caafdd04a477/Consumer+Staples.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Consumer Staples sector potentially reversing from oversold levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/757b0124-6978-4f5b-8f37-b2794d6c912e/Communication+Services.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The Communication Services sector still has potential upside before reaching overbought levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6b7f76e2-ea68-4cb6-b76e-9ecb46d4ce21/Energy.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The decline in rig counts can support prices over the longer term. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e7cb7dad-51dc-4873-b7b2-423c86a4b8db/Financials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The Financials sector’s investment-grade OAS has moved lower, indicating that investors perceive a lower risk for the sector’s bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b80ca659-334a-4d1d-b3b8-ca663bb3de3c/Health+Care.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The Health Care sector is oversold. A reversal from these levels would be encouraging. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/40ffab6f-9300-4cc1-8b9c-1e7d30f6da00/Industrials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Valuation based on cash flow yield is becoming more expensive (lower yield = more expensive). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6ed797a1-153a-45df-bbd6-a7feff878ae7/Information+Technology.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Signs are emerging that the IT sector is reversing from short-term overbought conditions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f237f2b0-38ce-4257-8926-dca02b16a182/Materials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Historically, better equity performance in Emerging Markets has been bullish for the Materials sector. However, there are signs that DM is gaining ground. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3a23ef5d-5d83-4418-a331-6f17f3e986dd/Real+Estate.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Relative breadth over the past 50 days has been bullish for the Real Estate sector. A positive divergence. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1c72f591-4178-459c-9d22-539a5ef3c71b/Utilities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The Utilities sector shows signs of reversing from short-term oversold levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c43b5553-4b00-4948-98c9-29eee9f19a17/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9088a1d4-df27-4ac7-9bb8-e50479c32e6e/sentiment-08.01.2025.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-july-30-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-08-28 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-july-28-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-07-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e236d54a-7aea-4c0e-9d19-80fe445509df/Catastrophic+Stop+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 28, 2025 Figure 1: DH Catastrophic Stop Model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e7e6c7cc-1a94-4414-8596-1c8d5dfc9bdd/High+Yield+OAS+MACD.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Fixed income markets continue to function well, but low risk premiums and tight spreads don’t leave much room for error. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/953ece9e-e096-4f5c-9839-645a8ac1ec02/Russell+3000+Volume+Demand+and+Supply.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Volume-adjusted demand for Russell 3000 remains constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c5e095ea-bc3f-4b11-a31a-2677c3bd3312/SP+500+Relative+Strength+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Given the strength of the rally off the April low, many shorter-term measures of OBOS are registering overbought. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b90d8726-be76-4cc3-a50d-ba2b5105c75e/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d4b923f6-0127-4937-8408-d69ef2e4c144/SP500+Percent+of+Stocks+with+Implied+Vol+above+1+year+Range.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Another view of volatility is 3Fourteen’s “Percent of stocks with implied volatility above their 1-year averages.” The indicator is currently hovering around the middle of the range. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/94c1f8ca-ce9f-4cff-8c3b-24484062741b/10+Volatility+Target+Equity+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Vol targeting funds nearing full exposure based on a 5-year lookback. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fe80ecfe-be39-4561-94eb-20eee6526f19/SP500+Cycle+Composite+for+2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: S&P 500 Seasonal Cycle Composite. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3618fef6-b09a-46dd-b74d-fa008724e1dd/Year+End+Strategist+Forecasts.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: S&P 500 vs year-end strategist forecasts. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/10eef85f-b14e-4297-a84a-416b99ec580f/Future+12+Months+Earngs+Growth+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Q2 y/y earnings growth is expected to be the low for this year and into the first half of 2026. Note that buybacks will resume in large part next week. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/81ae68df-130a-4173-bc28-fa2b4117d10d/SP500+Valuation+Heatmap.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Continued earnings growth and the potential for lower rates are constructive in the longer term. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ca79b5cf-2ae3-40c9-a644-c8fbcb01824d/Economic+Calendar.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Economic release calendar for the week. Plenty of economic and inflation data. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-authenticity monthly 0.5 2025-08-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/16bb4c59-2e7b-44d6-b0bb-9910d93023c1/day-hagan-tech-talk-blank-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Authenticity - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9cc6efc3-8148-49ac-9d78-e27be2f27ae1/nyse-common-stock-only-test.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Authenticity - Make it stand out Figure 1: Broader Based NYSE Advance-Decline Lines. | The broader-based Advance-Decline lines haven’t made much progress since their July 10th peak. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/be327446-9973-43c2-94ba-6a4eba85549a/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Authenticity - Make it stand out Figure 2: Domestic Equity Market Indices. | There has been some stealth rotation underneath, but not enough to get the cash indices to break support. Please note the spike low from five days ago (support) in the thumbnail charts on the far right. Green lines depict support; red lines depict resistance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d35a254-6329-49ef-9dab-5c1d69e156f3/gld.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Authenticity - Make it stand out Figure 3: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD/$316.10) with a rising 50-day MA and improving momentum. | With well-defined resistance and support levels, $317 and $300 respectively, the next significant directional move will be dictated by which level is decisively broken. I think the odds favor a breakout to the upside, which will generate a price target of $334+, for starters. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-july-22-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-07-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6b07a1b5-5089-46f6-9807-b2e3562846c4/Catastrophic+Stop+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 22, 2025 Figure 1: DH Catastrophic Stop Model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/426f57e3-f8a4-4fb5-8b96-cc524925539f/SP500+MACD+40+and+200+day+MA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Long-term trend-following indicators generally remain on buy signals. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b9a84f0d-8060-4ed7-8e86-becea91c6d0c/SP500+Information+Technology+Relative+Strength+OBOS.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Short-term overbought conditions are still in play. For example, the Info Tech sector’s relative short-term OBOS measure (below) is reversing from overbought levels. A decline below the lower SD Band (orange) and a reversal back above would indicate that the consolidation period had concluded. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3b055aa7-f491-41ee-a71e-a6015c9203a5/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The DH Sentiment Composite illustrates the level of extreme optimism. A reversal below 70 would be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/47ca761e-c9a5-4912-a011-896a40c16c80/High+Beta.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Positioning indicators overall are neutral. However, within the data, there are some extreme levels among categories. For example, the High Beta segment is crowded (institutional ownership/liquidity), indicating increased risk. (Source: JPM) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a499db18-84fd-45ad-b41f-994c06778186/Low+Vol.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: At the same time, the Low-Vol segment of the market is not over-owned and may provide lower-risk alternatives. We note that our sector allocations have been shifting toward lower-volatility cyclical and defensive areas of the market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0c75613b-d369-45cb-a8c4-483546f886d7/SP500+Earnings+growth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Earnings growth expectations are constructive for the second half of the year. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/98b1b73a-94e2-4ba7-a4d8-57e08e1db64b/Citigroup+Economic+Surprise+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The U.S. Economic Surprise Index indicates that expectations are no longer overly optimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dd3d1b05-031d-49f9-b310-70a8ea7416cb/fred-initial-claims.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Economic data is constructive. Initial unemployment claims below 350,000 have typically been a positive indicator for economic growth. A rise above 400,000 would be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5e4153d1-c3d5-4192-968c-11ae222ac0bc/Global+M2+Money+Supply.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Over the three-month period through May, global M2 money supply increased by 4.1% and made new highs. The increase is bullish for financial assets and economic activity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5073b885-a034-480c-a783-cdea4a0840c3/fred-equity-market-related-economic-uncertainty-index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Equity Market-related Economic Uncertainty now resides at the low end of the range over the past year. Lower Uncertainty = Constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cef06cb7-f2ff-42b1-9f30-559ec27cc2f4/SP+500+Cycle+Composite+for+2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 22, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Seasonality hints at softness during August and September, with a potential year-end rally. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-same-old-same-old monthly 0.5 2025-07-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/25b63067-a9de-4417-8050-cfaf968e6925/day-hagan-tech-talk-07.16.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Same Old, Same Old - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8590a61f-592d-4768-abcb-f7cf5a33cbfb/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Same Old, Same Old - Make it stand out Figure 1: NYSE Composite. | Red lines depict resistance (selling pressure); green lines depict support. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/342b04b5-e576-4d3c-8f08-2a9c62720824/kweb.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Same Old, Same Old - Make it stand out Figure 2: CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB). | Within the context of managing risk, KWEB might be a good way to participate in the Chinese overweight. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f6879d2d-4ae7-496f-9ad0-d6a114f51bc3/copper.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Same Old, Same Old - Make it stand out Figure 3: Copper-Continuous Contract with Momentum (monthly data). | I expect Copper to rise in a stair-step fashion. Please review the chart’s verbiage and manage risk accordingly. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-july-14-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-07-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/64eb59c6-4fb4-49b9-9db1-3b9798269f44/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 Figure 1: The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains constructive for equities longer term. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f32b3603-5ddc-45f8-b166-ff13ca43ee16/DH+Daily+Market+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/de8a7feb-6c7b-4c14-a0ce-4ff08535bb03/High+Yield+OAS+MACD.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: High-Yield OAS MACD remains on a buy signal. We go with the flow until it reaches an extreme and reverses. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d4697b1e-4255-4eb6-a7f7-151eb69fd21b/Relative+Strength+Index+Table.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Short-term technicals indicate a cooling-off period is likely; however, longer-term indicators remain constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cec2319f-7a6d-4344-8060-f81e41b6af61/equity-positioning-neutral-june-2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Market positioning reflects more intermediate-term neutral sentiment and less overbought conditions compared to the purely shorter-term technical indicators outlined earlier. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/18b09069-faac-4c94-8679-d9237ac9de5b/SP+500+Cycle+Composite+for+2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Based on the cycle composite, the S&P 500 is likely entering a choppy period in anticipation of a significant year-end rally. Note: This is a second-tier indicator in our work. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6c34ff29-2e33-4596-9de6-51deef2e2fce/sp500-quarterly-bottom-up.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Earnings expected to stair-step higher into Q3 2026. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7045b262-b5be-4af4-a625-83c811b77b19/Consumer+Price+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: CPI and PPI are generally heading in the right direction. We expect more volatility as the tariff uncertainty ebbs and flows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/143d8ada-c081-42b7-8ba1-7b3a65143ce3/Producer+Price+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: PPI for all commodities is up just 1.5% year/year. Wednesday’s PPI update will provide insights into the impact of tariffs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/31d3eb4b-b054-480d-a784-814f7f846703/5+Year+Breakeven+Rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Breakeven rates are rising slightly but are expected to moderate by the end of the year. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9a86676f-e1ae-4130-a6df-e63b72959a2c/initial+claims.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Strong employment remains a bullish underpinning for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/824975bb-a49d-456a-b1e6-c2f7070042be/visa-spending-2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Consumer spending is key to economic growth. Our view is that spending is slowing down but has not retrenched. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5ad755e6-09bf-41da-9f97-8d907fd7b350/Bullish+Factors.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Bullish Factors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/30cb2208-9e22-4486-828e-fc9fc3ff4936/Bearish+Factors.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Bearish Factors. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-whos-in-the-pool-july-9-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-07-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/00ff2ffa-3d71-43a8-bd7d-4ac81c887caa/day-hagan-tech-talk-07.09.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Who’s in the Pool? - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/017bf811-9beb-4256-a973-a9f53fda80b6/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Who’s in the Pool? - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | Red lines depict resistance (selling pressure); green and blue depict support. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/556dfb89-aa00-4a95-87ca-70626af6f0db/indu.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Who’s in the Pool? - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Jones. | Please see the verbiage inside each chart. Additionally, red lines represent resistance while green lines indicate support. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/22ab4510-ae5a-4f48-b055-c05cb56fdd28/iwm.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Who’s in the Pool? - Make it stand out Figure 3: Small Cap proxy with rising 50-day MA. | I think a relative strength breakout will eventually occur—top frame. Red lines represent resistance while green lines indicate support. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-july-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-07-08 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-july-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-07-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/776a5bd1-c669-41e1-b772-5a49677318f7/Australia.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Weaker trends in gold prices are negative for Australia. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/82a20f7c-5147-4e61-8755-de7d401fa057/Canada.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Canada’s recent relative strength continues to roll over as overbought conditions are being worked off. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6acb9e1e-fa48-41b3-a7da-f468abbb4796/China.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Relative price momentum showing signs of improvement. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/943bc556-ce29-49ea-ba79-ab806e29b676/France.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: France has been experiencing investor outflows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/407c756e-a18d-4e98-87f7-1624e9894f83/Germany.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Longer-term relative breadth measure for Germany hitting resistance and showing signs of rolling over. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2c7fb02a-e711-49dd-a749-92260cb88302/Japan.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Excessive investor pessimism is showing signs of reversing from lows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c3625224-9b3b-4887-aa90-8229ee3346b6/Switzerland.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Relative valuation measures are negative for Switzerland. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b059ceb9-02bd-4475-a1c3-04d3b37a1897/UK.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: U.K. investor sentiment back to levels denoting pessimism. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7d77a253-d7a4-4d4d-a705-0d094003e7d2/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c6ebdfb3-29a8-4253-a455-dd8a5b82316f/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-july-7-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-07-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6f36b3d5-8f10-42d9-a042-f1716e3a1055/US+Treasuries.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Credit Default Swap rates continue to move lower for U.S. Treasuries. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6f3d7251-06c8-4c8a-896d-52f01bbcc2b9/MBS+Mortgage+Backed+Securities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Inflation expectations are perking up but expected to be transitory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fb18d6c4-e8fe-4ff6-bb79-e7d628784e54/MBS+Mortgage+Backed+Securities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Lower rates benefit consumers and mortgages. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/32c8d30d-001b-4079-9cd9-11106c0ca5a3/Floating+Rate+Note.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Short-term momentum is oversold. A reversal higher would indicate that FRNs are poised for additional upside. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0925508e-37dc-48e4-bde1-9d76a1acf4c4/US+IG+Corporates.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Implied bond volatility rated neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/848347d0-34b7-4df4-bd60-15bd8a4d8c1d/High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Tighter overall corporate credit spreads are positive for High-Yield bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b1ce107b-ce34-4522-93ab-0993839fdf6b/International+Investment+Grade.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: International IG Corporate trends are positive from a longer-term perspective. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/48a5c3fe-fd5c-456d-8b59-e4dbd4631f3d/Emerging+Market+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Emerging Market equity momentum has supported EM bond prices. A decline below the 0 line would lead us to reduce exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7d77a253-d7a4-4d4d-a705-0d094003e7d2/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested position (relative to the benchmark). Note: Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cab9f9fa-1a07-4f64-a1d1-8d984500b7fc/sp500-index-vs-day-hagan-daily-market-sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c6ebdfb3-29a8-4253-a455-dd8a5b82316f/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-july-7-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-07-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a6448f3d-0f05-42d7-b9b7-9ee69a526d5f/Consumer+Discretionary.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: A reversal in interest rates would be bullish for the Consumer Discretionary sector (and the market in general). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e8ebbe4a-90d9-46e7-9798-d2e54e8ee7de/Consumer+Staples.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Relative breadth is improving and indicating a positive divergence for the Consumer Staples sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4aa7c7bf-64d6-4473-8e26-844895b24bf1/Communication+Services.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Even with the outperformance of late, the relative earnings yield for Communication Services remains higher than the overall market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8c5b143c-3aa8-4821-9ebf-f39684fab927/Energy.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The 5-week point change in inventories is negative and is now in oversold territory. Improvement in the composite model’s shorter-term technical measures would support an increase in exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cb44c59c-fbdb-4862-9d18-8ede29be3771/Financials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The Financials sector would benefit from a stronger U.S. dollar. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3052023a-1db5-4acf-bb0e-e9408b501241/Health+Care.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The Health Care sector is oversold. A reversal from these levels would be encouraging. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dd87e9d9-1290-4238-995d-3510208c5cee/Industrials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Volatility measures for the Industrials sector are showing signs of peaking. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/986e43bc-d069-4202-856a-c39925ecc951/Information+Technology.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Lower inflation expectations (smoothed 21-day point change) remain subdued but have recently increased slightly. A rise above the 1.5 SD line (blue line) would be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/032ccdaf-85cf-4fdd-ad8d-08a0818861bf/Materials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Better equity performance in Emerging Markets has historically been positive for the Materials sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9e0ecbda-ece4-4e7d-b73d-43cda96a49b3/Real+Estate.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: An improving Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index is constructive for real estate. Nonetheless, rates and oversupply are still an issue. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fd11b03d-e6e9-42b9-9ca7-d13c60503ea8/Utilities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The Utilities sector dividend is near historically low levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7d77a253-d7a4-4d4d-a705-0d094003e7d2/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Note: Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c6ebdfb3-29a8-4253-a455-dd8a5b82316f/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-july-7-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-07-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/953248fc-def6-48fa-92ed-c0cb652dab9d/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 Figure 1: The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains constructive for equities longer term. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/15f472e5-2316-48fd-ae13-0a5e07eff1e8/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9bb0923c-d022-4bbb-8dd8-771b7ca6055c/SPX+14+Day+RSI.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Short-term measures of overbought/oversold are in overbought territory. We go with the flow until the indicator reaches a peak and reverses. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/739574d9-7a16-4b3d-bffd-74a69d9ad30d/SP500+Constituents+Above+50+and+200+Day+MA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Short-term breadth indicators overbought, longer-term measures neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/60072a60-530b-47ea-b8d4-9059d28cd42c/SP500+Constituents+Net+New+52+week+Highs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: S&P 500 net new 52-week highs reached 58.92% last week. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8e06fc20-a2ee-4e47-bd94-63a87c60df0d/10+Percent+Volatility+Targeting+Implied+Equity+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Similar to the aforementioned net leverage levels, funds targeting 10% volatility have an implied equity allocation of 76.5%, which is also toward the middle of the historical range shown. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/db5927f5-4027-4b23-930e-85555ffb16ed/VIX.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: VIX levels remain low. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0bdbe95c-c577-47e5-b017-7a54a0ee8e24/SPX+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The upper and lower range levels for the July 18 OPEX are 6,176 and 6,383. Note: Projected levels become more meaningful as OPEX approaches. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b54d9a46-609e-497e-a671-f34402eeb7f3/SP500+forward+12+month+earnings+around+10+percent+corrections.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Earnings tracking a no-recession path. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/50f5f7dc-48ff-4520-a22d-cb889a3aaebf/SP500+Positive+EPS+Guidance.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The percentage of companies providing positive Q2 2025 EPS guidance is normal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b7d50b02-0f68-4768-a785-7058fcd349de/SP500+Negative+EPS+Guidance.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The percentage of companies providing negative Q2 2025 EPS guidance is below the levels seen over the past 12 quarters. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c1a16f31-79ae-4c76-a0dd-321ba8f1a776/SP500+Earnings+Growth+Y+over+Y.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Optimistic earnings expectations for the second quarter have been lowered. Analysts expect Q2 y/y growth to be the trough for the next six quarters. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f114bd1f-e313-4f23-885b-928ef5570538/Earnings+Revision+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Earnings revisions are still negative, but the downside momentum appears to be slowing. Keep in mind that all this happened while the market was making new highs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4bf9e0e8-6554-4688-a434-e4cf5e855e66/Consumer+prices.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Most inflation measures continue to generally head lower. The decline in 10-year Treasury bond yield from 4.5% in mid-June to 4.23% at the end of the month partially confirms this view (bonds don’t trade on inflation expectations alone). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bcb0e1ff-0887-4835-a6b2-c18560de9d40/SP500+Constituents+Above+50+and+200+Day+MA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Most inflation measures continue to generally head lower. The decline in 10-year Treasury bond yield from 4.5% in mid-June to 4.23% at the end of the month partially confirms this view (bonds don’t trade on inflation expectations alone). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5007e1c7-ae33-47ba-9ab3-3f520a2c75ac/Atlanta+Fed+GDPNow.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 16: Q2 earnings calls will be helpful in determining expectations for 2H economic activity. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-something-new-july-2-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-07-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1751468620968-M8DIAUNUODMLNZA6QUL0/day-hagan-tech-talk-07.02.2025-1200x675px-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Independence Day Celebration - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c2d2f90a-6bf6-4dfc-8021-c34a7f97d0bb/xly-xlp.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Independence Day Celebration - Make it stand out Figure 1: Consumer Discretion versus Consumer Staples (cap weight and equal weight). | The rising line, which has reached a critical resistance level (red horizontal lines), reflects an environment conducive to equities moving higher. I believe resistance will eventually be violated on the upside. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f7f9fbe5-f490-4cfc-9eee-fb20763737a4/spy-xlp.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Independence Day Celebration - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 (Cyclical) versus Defensive. | Rising lines depict a cyclical bias (risk-on). If the lines roll over, as they did at the beginning of 2025, it will imply a pullback or backing and filling. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cc815f16-5f27-4903-829e-f0d444027882/spx-acwx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Independence Day Celebration - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 vs. All Country World index ex U.S. proxy. |A move above resistance (red horizontal line) would have bullish short-term implications for U.S. stocks. Don’t anticipate a breakout; instead, wait to see if it occurs and then act. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8c0e8b3b-713e-457d-a57a-59449a7fdc23/tnx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Independence Day Celebration - Make it stand out Figure 4: CBOE 10-Year U.S. Treasury YIELD Index (TNX). | A decisive move above 46 resistance would pressure equities, especially if it is rapid. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d7d73edb-36c3-4b2c-850d-b0e4301068a7/uup.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Independence Day Celebration - Make it stand out Figure 5: U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP). | Considering the impact the U.S. Dollar’s directional moves have on many intermarket relationships, please watch this closely. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/22d6486d-63df-4efa-8d69-d6dd21ea39fc/djia.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Independence Day Celebration - Make it stand out Figure 6: Dow Jones Industrial Average. | Would a pullback be surprising? No, especially considering the recent advance and proximity to resistance. However, an initial price target of 47,800 is possible, based on the depth of the base that was completed (42,800 minus 37,800 = 5,000). 42,800 + 5,000 = 47,800. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-june-30-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-06-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/40dbf577-c673-43af-9d79-c55f7302cc3a/DH+Catastrophic+Stop+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 Figure 1: The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains constructive for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/41334345-0f90-4597-b071-ad6be393953d/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6bb52855-a107-4d20-ad5d-a252e39d63f2/SPX+SP500+6173-07.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Short-term measures of overbought/oversold are moving into overbought territory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6a0adb36-ef22-4192-a825-7f11fd4ce110/SPX+SP500+6173-07+83+Day+RSI.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Intermediate-term OBOS indicators are more neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/86b23557-54a9-44aa-b568-500e255d2c6c/Russell+3000+Volume+Demand+and+Supply.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Volume-adjusted demand outpacing supply, but not excessively. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e29a0e95-4269-4f5d-b7b3-4a0253948fa4/10+Percent+Volatility+Targeting+Implied+Equity+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Several investment allocation categories have been chasing the markets higher and are becoming more fully invested, yet there is still upside potential. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c7adb4bf-73e9-4c5e-bdfb-47e3ae53d6ac/Smart+Money+Confidence.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Smart Money Confidence neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7a4be58a-7033-44a1-ad1f-a76b0a6cb2e0/SPX+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The upper and lower range levels for the July 18 OPEX are 6,049 and 6,297. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8871d892-5dd1-448f-8924-2e516d027826/sp500-seasonality.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Heading into July, S&P 500 seasonality is a tailwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/67321060-cac9-4f62-8b17-0761d2d5deb5/Economic+Policy+Uncertainty.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Tariff uncertainty has moderated. However, we expect the rhetoric to intensify as the July 9th end of the reciprocal tariff pause approaches, only to subside as new deals are announced and consummated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2c20838b-b6e4-4427-9065-106ea9d1c210/Bottom+up+consensus.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: If earnings growth troughs in Q2, expect markets to react positively in 2H. Source: FactSet via MarketEar. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1c1e8d6c-ef6a-4a0a-a18b-f750daeea904/sp500-sales.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Positive revisions for sales this year have been outpacing negative revisions. Constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/18d2d3ba-d5dd-4d63-9a6e-a7e6ee0252ce/Atlanta+Fed+GDPNow+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model indicates Q2 real GDP may come in above trend. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0f5a5228-03c4-4c84-89fe-df8e2a343c5a/Forecasts+of+Core+PCE+Inflation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 30, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Like other models we are monitoring, the NY Fed’s DSGE model for PCE inflation shows an uptick in Core PCE inflation into 2026, followed by a quick decrease. The Fed is aware of this and is also likely to consider inflation increases over the next quarter or two as, and I hate to say it, “transitory.” In other words, with economic activity moderating, housing slowing, and energy prices reversing lower, we would likely view any upside surprise in inflation as temporary. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-june-25-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-06-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1750959979040-6B4C1F8ERL9VVVF8FI2G/replay-day-hagan-technical-analysis-june-25-2025-1200x675px-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Technical Analysis with Art Huprich, CMT, from June 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Day Hagan Technical Analysis with Art Huprich, CMT, on June 25, 2025. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-june-24-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-06-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/452abd6d-eda9-4efe-90ee-b1b76823a35d/Catastrophic+Stop+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 Figure 1: The Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop model remains constructive for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1d9e33d8-808d-4fdd-907a-4cc111993a02/SP500+MACD+40+vs+200+day+SMA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Longer-term trend indicators shifting more positively. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aaa853e1-2994-4831-8080-59ffc1d7e9a4/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Optimistic sentiment continues to support equity exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8b914103-a545-494c-80a9-c57ba979a6ea/CBOE+Crude+Oil+ETF+Volatility+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index moved higher on the Iran news, but peak levels did not break out past what was observed in 2016, 2020, and late-2021 to 2022. Crude oil implied volatility (based on option pricing) indicates that investors are assigning a lower probability to the persistence of higher crude prices. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2cdfbf07-8d27-4ed4-9942-ac8d8614cb67/Energy+Sector+Composite+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The Energy Sector Composite model remains cautious on the sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3cfad867-2ea4-4d60-9229-4d0f4a33e28a/5+Year+Breakeven+Inflation+Rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The 5-year breakeven inflation rate moved from 2.30% on June 11 to just 2.33% yesterday, indicating that investors are not (yet) overly concerned about recent energy price increases translating into an inflation spike. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/61293e40-83b3-44d4-85f1-e0b2cbf836a4/SP500+Cycle+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Seasonal influences are nearing a positive inflection point, potentially offsetting some of the negativity around the buyback blackout period in place for the next few weeks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a7a4c1c2-730a-432e-8313-b5f084d54398/SPX+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The upper and lower range levels for the July 18 OPEX are 5,938 and 6,229. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0496d86f-7e60-479c-8155-1b6f425b08e2/SP500+Forward+12+Month+Earnings+around+10+percent+corrections.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Equity markets generally follow earnings trends. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a187ece5-ef40-4cdf-a875-51ab00a7a845/Economic+Policy+Uncertainty+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Markets don’t like uncertainty. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a1875fe5-7126-4d88-8366-ad5882cc05e6/St+Louis+Financial+Stress.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Wars, trade tensions, political turmoil, and a spike in energy prices weren’t enough to stress out the financial markets for more than a day or two. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f9c7e5d5-0ad3-4ab8-b0a4-b288a4b98a2f/Chicago+Fed+National+Financial+Conditions.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Chicago’s measure of financial conditions focuses more on lending and borrowing and has also been improving. (Lower is better, indicating looser financial conditions.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fb9bd0c5-4fde-49c7-bd24-c3f180c91141/Initial+Claims.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Even with the DOGE cuts, U.S. employment remains constructive for economic activity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9019593c-5905-41a5-8162-34139ec11455/ICE+BofA+US+Corporate+Index+Option+adjusted+spreads.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Credit spreads (OAS) for U.S. Corporates are at the low end of the 10-year range. This is a positive underpinning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5d1bed30-e5f7-489d-8378-51e37aae0c33/Smoothed+US+Recession+Probabilities.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 24, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 15: The U.S. Recession Probability Model remains constructive for U.S. economic activity. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-something-new-june-18-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-07-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/73305b90-c7e1-4bd9-8fac-5da21caf9208/day-hagan-tech-talk-06.18.2025-1200x675px-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Something New - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a618582-4c9f-46fe-966a-f4f69fa25bff/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Something New - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 with a rising 50-day MA and 200-day MA. | With resistance looming not too far above, as expressed last week, pullbacks will occur. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1d9343e5-e2a7-455d-9462-c73bf07a6543/gdx-gld.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Something New - Make it stand out Figure 2: Gold Miners (top frame) and Junior Gold Miners (lower frame) vs. Gold. | While the transition to “bullish” isn’t complete on a longer-term basis, you’ll see the transition occurring if you squint hard. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ad837958-4299-4462-9b12-def97e29473a/smh-kce.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Something New - Make it stand out Figure 3: Semiconductor proxy vs. NASDAQ and Capital Markets proxy. | Generally speaking, Wall Street likes it (more risk-on than risk-off) when semis outperform. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-june-18-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-06-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/62337553-5cba-43a1-abed-851c85e50845/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model signals a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b6ba50f7-8d65-4986-89fa-da1d94e19d90/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: A decline below 70 would indicate that near-term headwinds are increasing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/043bdb9f-6aa7-46f5-a233-f29c7e7ddd18/10+Percent+Volatility+Targeting+Implied+Equity+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Several investment allocation categories have chased and are becoming more fully invested, yet there is still upside potential. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b79939ac-b515-4bcf-b3a0-739a6edcfc7b/Tactical+Positioning+Monitor.jpg Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Overall positioning neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c10fa386-76a7-45e6-b34f-bf1af10d3e61/Smart+Money+Confidence.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Smart Money Confidence is less bullish, but not (yet) on a sell. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/274b0e7e-ea94-4485-a106-5172d6162653/SPX+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The upper and lower range levels for the June 20 OPEX are 5,954 and 6,080. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cd85d6cb-3748-4df4-8b91-946cac296e1e/gamma-exposure-by-strike.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The positive gamma condition of the market for Friday indicates potentially lower volatility. Of course, with the market’s being closed Thursday, this becomes a little more muddled. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f9c649f8-dca1-426e-a312-0e47806dcbd9/SP500+Index+Total+Percent+Returns.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Heading into July, S&P 500 seasonality is a tailwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8e14584e-ec72-4431-8775-7a7a71cea2e6/SP500+When+Forward+12+Month+EPS+near+All+Time+High.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Yes, earning expectations have been moving lower, but even with the decline, forward EPS estimates are near the all-time high. This has historically been a bullish underpinning for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/64318acd-2f8f-45fb-8439-4d7104beeb33/SP500+Forward+12+month+Earnings+Around+10+Percent+Correction+Dates.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Equity markets generally follow earnings trends. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8c5b3ef0-fcc1-4cdb-8df7-7b4551e9e642/CME+FedWatch+Tool.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Rate cut probabilities indicate 3 to 4 rate cuts over the next 18 months. The Fed’s Dot-Plot averages imply Fed Funds Target Rates of 3.875% for 2025, 3.375% for 2026, and 3.125 for 2027. Long-run expectations are for 3.0%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9a8327d1-1adc-47e5-adef-b0b986fb6182/SP500+Valuation+Heatmap.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The table below provides a potential scorecard for different interest rate and earnings growth relationships. (Similar to two-stage 5-year DCF framework. Source: StreetStats.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3946437d-620e-4377-b136-2eb1bba1ddfc/Earnings+Revision+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Q1 earnings were much better than expected. Can Q2 do as well? So far, no. However, Q2 is seemingly being viewed by the Street as the “trough quarter” for earnings growth. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b58b6716-522d-4a00-9a48-f48f401549a1/SP+500+Earnings+Growth+Q2+2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Earnings are still growing but the rate of change has been slowing. This, along with the blackout period for buybacks coming up, may be more of a headwind until Q2 earnings season is out of the way. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5fc377c8-3adb-448f-a4e5-707bf1b45dd0/SP500+Earnings+Growth+CY+2026.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Earnings growth expectations for 2026 are bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0ebb809a-63a7-4c91-aa3b-fdb71cd6bce6/Atlanta+Fed+GDPNow+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 17, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 16: Economic activity is holding up but concerns around inflation re-accelerating are growing due to energy prices ratcheting up. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-june-11-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-06-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/787b2922-ece2-4c87-869a-f6dbde6f3849/Catastrophic+Stop+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 10, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model signals a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Note: The June 2025 Smart Sector with Catastrophic Stop monthly letter is available at https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-june-3-2025. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/136911d0-3a1f-4016-b0c0-d10d3bd01a55/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment “thrusts” after significant declines are normal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3c2dbf4d-251e-4c19-95c9-20bc584b08f1/SP500+Percent+of+Stocks+above+10d+and+200d+MAs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day MAs shows markets are not significantly overbought, but the 10-day indicates some near-term consolidation potential. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c56962c1-9ac1-428b-a7d6-fd404c7cb52b/SPY+New+52+Week+Highs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Just 3.18% of SPY constituents are trading at new 52-week highs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f9c4daf4-baa3-454f-b9bc-9110f01ec9db/SP500+Percent+of+Stocks+with+Implied+Vol+above+1+year+average.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The reversal in volatility measures following the April lows appears to have room to run. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/da937281-714f-411c-a545-e894bb5da3ed/10+percent+Volatility+Targeting+Implied+Equity+Allocation.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Several investment allocation categories have increased their equity allocations but are not yet overweight. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ee44a04e-3835-4414-a342-ec5bc65db74a/High+Yield+OAS+MACD.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Narrower credit spreads are currently supportive for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e56b1b9d-7d51-48f8-b16b-3126dd87f385/SPX+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The upper and lower range levels for the June 20 OPEX are 5,938 and 6,117. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/285972e5-3b65-4f8d-8a2f-d09e611f2e05/SP500+Forward+12+Month+Earnings+Around+10%25+Corrections.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Equity markets generally follow earnings trends. We noted a couple of weeks ago that Q2 earnings expectations were relatively low, potentially providing an upside surprise. This view appears to still be in play. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ee81ee5d-c7a4-4bdb-960e-faa3ce163717/M2.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Economic liquidity has been improving. So far, it doesn’t appear inflationary. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f9fa03b3-5696-428f-9643-f3b4562b3121/Producer+Price+Index+by+Commodity.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Inflation statistics continue to move in the right direction (lower). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/17778581-207c-4da7-8610-5a0976f24ff7/Small+Business+Optimism+Index+May+2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Small businesses are becoming more optimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/418ea8ec-94dc-4307-89f3-f52b1e266ace/Total+US+Consumer+Credit.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 10, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Total U.S. Consumer Credit shows consumers are still spending. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-swirl-june-11-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-06-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1749665476004-COT1OKK4B6ZMXPDP670H/day-hagan-tech-talk-06.11.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Swirl - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e148838a-f8ff-4c79-899b-e101b41a530c/sml.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Swirl - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 600 Small Cap Index with Momentum and rising 10-week MA. | Weekly charts are a bit different from last week’s daily charts, but the bullish pattern of accumulation is still evident. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8c5fbcb1-64ab-48ca-b542-857959a879df/small-cap-equity-positioning.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Swirl - Make it stand out Figure 2: Small Cap Equity Positioning: “There is comparatively no interest in small caps, with investor positioning in small cap stocks ticking up off the bottom end of the range.” This implies a lot of fuel exists, which could be added to the fire. Can we say “short squeeze?” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5b77c453-5d8e-455f-8cd9-a10557523eff/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Swirl - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 with Momentum and rising 40-week MA. | Please refer to the verbiage inside the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/373d361c-6dd5-48a4-a6a3-2f65f7f0b441/silver.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Swirl - Make it stand out Figure 4: Silver with Momentum. | $38 to $40 is the first target followed by something north of $44-$45, maybe $50. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-june-5-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-06-05 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-sheesh-june-4-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-06-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1749062284711-X97VAKGUPL7CL0HDODCF/day-hagan-tech-talk-06.04.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Sheesh - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c809757f-0ebf-4b69-be78-3fcca117e86a/nyse-all-issues-a-d-line.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Sheesh - Make it stand out Figure 1: NYSE all-issues A/D Line, S&P 500 A/D Line, and S&P 500. | If the S&P 500 stays over its mid-May high and the A/D Line cannot follow suit (we’ll give it a few days to confirm), we’ll have to put this on the negative side of the ledger, short-term. Please note the thumbnail charts to the right. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/80996c4b-9b71-481c-a886-dc9f6570823e/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Sheesh - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with rising 50-day MA (dashed lime line) & rising 200-day MA (solid lime line). | Red bars depict when SPX closes lower. Green bars depict when SPX closes higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/82a50080-2835-4735-b8a2-07c1d02f9d87/sml.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Sheesh - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 600 with 50-day MA (blue dashed line) & 200-day MA (red dashed line). | A legitimate (bullish) pattern of accumulation is developing—an inverse Head and Shoulders bottom. Wait, and don’t anticipate a breakout. Please see the levels of resistance listed in the paragraph above. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-june-3-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-06-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/00a0816f-b8f8-4529-b175-67d96f93ba0b/Day+Hagan+Catastrophic+Stop+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 3, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model signals a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Note: The model’s levels prior to 5-1-2025 have been archived. As of that date, the model was modified to include Breadth Thrust and Oversold Mean Reversion clusters (detailed in our May Update). Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/24108702-726d-436c-b374-17ba848f380b/DH+Daily+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment “thrusts” after significant declines are normal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4bc0c64f-e56d-44a0-b02d-3b1c02ddb88e/Consumer+Sentiment+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: A reversal from these historically low levels of consumer sentiment would be constructive. The latest figure, for May, is 52.2, revised up from the 50.8 shown on the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/45a33374-6308-419a-b9cd-575af75afee7/Smart+Money+Confidence.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Smart Money Confidence is less bullish, but not (yet) on a sell. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d389c258-8000-4e1f-bb45-c308c747a1b4/10+Percent+Volatility+Targeting.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Several investment allocation categories may be forced to chase the markets higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e434f26f-07ea-42cc-9b34-5146cadae2fc/SP500+28+day+returns.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Rallies of 20%+ in 28 days don’t happen often. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ba101ff0-fa8e-4d34-b142-c6e27e20144f/SP500+28+day+return+to+crosses+to+20%25.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Momentum thrusts have been bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dee657ca-491e-43dd-a823-a0672785ac72/Buy+or+buy+Short+Gamma.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Upside convexity is higher than downside convexity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b59b164a-3ef6-4ae8-a0ea-52f82d713e49/SP500+Percent+of+stocks+above+10+and+200+day+MA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Breadth statistics do not signal significant overbought conditions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4f6b9390-2cbb-4fb3-9faa-85f8ea3c12b9/Implied+Volatility+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The upper and lower range levels for the June 20 OPEX are 5,850 and 6,109. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/07cc05a8-6686-442b-bcb0-8dc485a52de1/Hard+vs+Soft+Data.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Overall, hard data is improving. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f22cb2d6-12ad-4bd2-9ad3-5af4e0eb0793/sp-gsci-commodity-index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update June 3, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Inflation pressures are muted. The GSCI ETF is in the middle of the year’s range. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-june-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-06-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4c208c84-5455-483d-bde9-97b4b9bc6f0e/US+Treasuries.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Trends in inflation expectations have historically been very useful in calling fixed income trends. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/afade2c0-394f-474d-ab7a-59aae8d17b27/TIPS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weaker commodity prices often lead to lower inflation pressures. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0e1a1b60-3ab5-49e7-9143-70750d86ae3b/Mortgage+Backed+Securities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Rising longer-term yields’ positive impact wanes when buyers are forced out of the market as yields get too high. A rise above the blue line and reversal back through would be bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d5c68602-20b4-43c0-9393-fe45a9b22462/Floating+Rate+Notes.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: As inflation expectations wane, FRN’s are under more pressure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ed79efbd-cd31-4e5c-ba6e-627b588e2ddb/US+IG+Corporates.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: U.S. dollar weakness is a headwind for U.S. assets. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ffc5b02f-75f5-4688-a4aa-bf9ca4098803/High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: High yield bond breadth has been bullish, but we are monitoring this indicator for signs that the support is wearing off. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f1241c1a-29d8-4d1b-80d2-d3eb6086d5c2/International+IG+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: CDS for International IG bonds are starting to move higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/da52da15-7e5f-4b86-b699-ca246f7255cc/Emerging+Market+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Emerging Market equity momentum has supported EM bond prices. A decline below the 0 line would lead us to reduce exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f3f0c3ec-8744-41e7-b6b5-0023599d010a/catastrophic-stop-vs-sp500-total-return.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested fixed income position (relative to the benchmark). Note: The model’s levels prior to 5-1-2025 have been archived. As of that date, the model was modified to include Breadth Thrust and Oversold Mean Reversion clusters. Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cab9f9fa-1a07-4f64-a1d1-8d984500b7fc/sp500-index-vs-day-hagan-daily-market-sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-june-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-06-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7849aa88-d3e2-4f80-88ed-e891d3d0fbe9/Australia.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Weaker trends in gold prices are negative for Australia. (This indicator was bullish last month.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8b12a7ee-bfe1-416f-a6eb-5d35061ac236/Canada.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Canada’s recent relative strength continues to roll over as overbought conditions are being worked off. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c2f625f0-d1a5-4ec7-a828-319991f7190b/China.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: High-yield option-adjusted spreads are a good proxy for risk-on or risk-off and are useful for calling asset classes like China’s equity markets. Spreads have narrowed over the past month. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b9da0ee9-6889-490a-bb26-0c94b4bfe5ba/France.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: France has been experiencing investor outflows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f32a2fa7-3175-4655-a21b-3eb5062660f0/Germany.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Longer-term breadth measure for Germany indicates long-term overbought conditions are building. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1494c5f2-53bc-44ac-bb11-86dffe864ae4/Japan.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Earnings growth picking up for Japan. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/45ee21d1-9137-4d13-aa8b-652cfde70b0c/Switzerland.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Negative momentum scores for the Swiss equity market. We would require a reversal before adding exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6cdd7ef2-3c0f-489c-90ab-e058bfab094d/UK.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Investor sentiment for the FTSE 100 has reversed from pessimism and is now neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f3f0c3ec-8744-41e7-b6b5-0023599d010a/catastrophic-stop-vs-sp500-total-return.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Note: The model’s levels prior to 5-1-2025 have been archived. As of that date, the model was modified to include Breadth Thrust and Oversold Mean Reversion clusters. Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cab9f9fa-1a07-4f64-a1d1-8d984500b7fc/sp500-index-vs-day-hagan-daily-market-sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-june-3-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-06-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2c40f471-abf9-4784-928b-cb766ea11dff/Consumer+Discretionary.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: A reversal in interest rates would be bullish for the Consumer Discretionary sector (and the market in general). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/205de1e1-a582-4602-9a41-a3b110b4182d/Consumer+Staples.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Increasing food sales is constructive. Looking now for margin improvement. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/df4a967e-479e-4a4f-8ad5-0567225f9846/Communication+Services.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Last month, we highlighted the Communication Services sector exiting extreme oversold conditions. This continues to be the case. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/25f8ac03-cc04-4d29-8c95-0f5a82267f7c/Energy.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The 5-week point change in inventories is negative. Improvement in the composite model’s shorter-term technical measures would support an increase in exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3f48b32e-4836-4500-8466-7d92076da58e/Financials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Relatively subdued volatility (vs. the rest of the sectors) is rated positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bd347c21-a1c1-49b2-83ad-aee04a6a792e/Health+Care.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The Health Care sector is oversold. A reversal from these levels would be encouraging. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ffa08ddc-7ae9-40bd-8fd4-af12ddf04404/Industrials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The rising tide of commodity pricing has historically been constructive for the Industrials sector (indicating increased economic activity), as long as it wasn’t due to supply chain pressures. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b3fa3bc9-6011-4c84-a29d-68f334229ea3/Information+Technology.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Lower inflation expectations (smoothed 21-day point change) remain subdued but have recently increased slightly. A rise above the 1.5 SD line (blue) would be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/15a2e628-b379-4edc-b733-b8b469e78895/Materials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Looking for a reversal from oversold extremes before increasing exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/49acf8ae-6c60-4b0a-a0a0-1676684f7415/sp500-materials-relative-strength-vs-relative-price.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: An improving Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index is constructive for real estate. Nonetheless, rates and oversupply are still an issue. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d551ae17-bea8-4077-9f57-ca7a1f50c473/Utilities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The earnings yield for the Utilities sector is near historically low levels relative to the calculated yield on the 10-year Treasury. For the sector to move appreciably higher, rates need to be lower. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7ffa1d14-fc38-4e93-aa73-08bb28962a0d/Day+Hagan+Catastrophic+Stop+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Catastrophic Stop model recommends a fully invested equity position (relative to the benchmark). Note: The model’s levels prior to 5-1-2025 have been archived. As of that date, the model was modified to include Breadth Thrust and Oversold Mean Reversion clusters. Due to the use of indices to extend model history, the model is considered hypothetical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3f5df1fe-522b-4029-8394-c5626fd61e8d/DH+Daily+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-drama-continues monthly 0.5 2025-06-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cf464d8d-6a44-4a64-a302-6b9a6933ce3a/day-hagan-tech-talk-05.28.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Drama Continues - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/02d539bb-cf13-4ec0-8741-99a7686d3dfd/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Drama Continues - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | To reiterate, how quickly the 5.12.25 upside gap (Chinese Trade Deal—blue circle), now support, gets filled—if at all—will give us an idea of underlying buying interest/demand/support. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fd1e7afe-7733-4531-9b00-9bb6c78ecaa2/indu.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Drama Continues - Make it stand out Figure 2: Dow Jones Industrial Average with rising 50-day MA. | While several resistance levels exist, a decisive move above the lower red resistance line (42,800+/-) would be very bullish. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-may-27-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-05-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9cd7c427-81ec-44d7-8ef3-cfe8a23813bb/DH+Daily+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 27, 2025 Figure 1: Sentiment “thrusts” after significant declines are normal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f41d79d1-b4d7-4a47-b94d-44b5ae6fb0d3/Smart+Money+Confidence.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 27, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Smart Money Confidence is less bullish, but not (yet) on a sell. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/12e0477d-0177-4cc4-bf47-42a34f723b6d/AAII+Bull+Bear+index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 27, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The best word to describe the technical environment is “Neutral.” (Source: MarketEar.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b3ed5fa4-c83e-4b58-8c7c-8e8e4e7ad2a2/Russell+3000+5+Day+ROC.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 27, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Several “lookback” technical indicators confirm an established trough. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/359a1870-23ee-4d5b-9faa-9d959d76172a/SPX+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 27, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The upper and lower range levels are 5,572 and 6,212 for the August 15th expiration. For the 6-20-2025 expiration, the levels are 5,728 and 6,056. (Note: Implied Volatility is lower than Historic Volatility. This indicates that option prices are reflecting lower expected future price swings compared to recent actual price movements. It may also indicate that options are undervalued.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d70280e3-8e2c-465a-ad2f-c73429734b93/SP500+Forward+12+month+earnings.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 27, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Earnings expectations showing some lift. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/58fb0251-1eb7-4923-b66a-c6be113fd10e/Percent+of+SP500+companies+with+positive+3+month+percent+changes+in+forward+earnings.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 27, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Three-month earnings estimates are showing signs of recovery. This is constructive in the near term. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c5421559-a50f-44e9-b6bf-593e0fbfea54/Percent+of+SP500+companies+with+positive+12+month+percent+changes+in+forward+earnings.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 27, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Looking out over the next 12 months, positive earnings revisions have stalled. While the absolute level of 71.6% is acceptable, directionally, this is a concern, indicating that investors are becoming less optimistic about the coming 12 months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/13112c5e-e9d6-4445-a016-ddf4ea7d4fec/SP+Global+Flash+US+PMI+vs+gross+domestic+product.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 27, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Economic activity is still muted but positive. Prices paid spiked higher, due to front-loading orders and tariff-related cost increases. Manufacturing input prices increased at the highest rate, but Services prices were also up. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f0de1b07-72b5-4d41-8492-1fa863a40347/Evolution+of+Atlanta+Fed+GDPNow+Real+GDP.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 27, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Fed GDPNow Real GDP estimate. Interestingly, the Blue-Chip Consensus is also increasing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/470ceaa2-9194-47eb-8c05-acde8d6af0b9/5+year+breakeven+inflation+rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 27, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: 5-year breakeven inflation rate showing a recent increase that will likely abate as tariff negotiations continue. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/77a4d213-5710-4eef-b333-1d56ef8687d4/Producer+Price+Index+by+Commodity.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 27, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Commodity price pressures at the wholesale level through April were subdued. Interestingly, the S&P GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) was 440.59 10 years ago vs. 535 last Friday for a 1.93% 10-year average annualized return. The GSCI is not showing significant price pressures at the wholesale level. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/feaabadf-25c9-4260-a45c-1332cc1faebd/SP500+Cycle+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 27, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2025 with 2025 Progress. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-may-20-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-06-26 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-may-19-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-05-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/adef063d-2bdb-4c83-96bf-38c2659cae23/DH+Daily+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 19, 2025 Figure 1: Sentiment is getting more optimistic but hasn’t yet reversed. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b3004a6d-0136-4a78-b7c7-3e0e097a2972/CNN+Fear+Greed+index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 19, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: CNN Fear/Greed model barely in the excessive optimism camp. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7ea30e7f-09d2-4d35-b99b-a8ef28bd1862/SP500+Returns+around+DeGraaf+and+Zweig+BTs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 19, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Putting long-term money to work following “DeGraff plus Zweig” breadth thrusts has been rewarding. Note that drawdowns are also palatable. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6626e5e4-9829-4b2d-8644-4cfdc128205c/DBMF+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 19, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Systematic and algo traders are likely still underweight. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/76e5ed04-aa45-42ae-98fd-73390141f1fd/10+Volatility+Targeting.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 19, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: While sentiment has moved to excessive optimism levels, actual equity allocations have upside before being overweight. This is similar to the divergences we see in “soft” economic data versus “hard” data. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b15fa1db-bc6b-4326-84bd-ffb0dbb4268d/Call+Open+Interest.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 19, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Call and put gamma exposure neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9d9b388f-f3b2-4ec4-8bef-259e438b2ce9/Gamma+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 19, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Open interest (OI) building at SPX 5,900 and 6,000. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9ff4441d-7a5b-4645-bf0e-fb4940dcc972/Major+Foreign+Holders+of+Treasury+Securities.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 19, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The death of foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury Securities has been greatly exaggerated, even in the face of the Moody’s downgrade (better late than never?). Note: China often holds U.S. Treasuries via Belgium (notably through Euroclear), with estimates of hundreds of billions in holdings. This custodial arrangement obscures precise attribution, but Belgium’s outsized Treasury holdings relative to its economy support this pattern. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/373699b9-d3e7-43be-b1bb-9077f98ed173/SPX+Expected+Move.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 19, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The upper and lower range levels are 5,620 and 6,277 for the August expiration. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/725fa5d6-ac8f-4f20-8704-9a7fc2d79d4b/SP500+Earnings+growth+2026.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 19, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: If earnings growth estimates for 2026 hold up, it would support the markets getting through SPX 6000. However, we note that since March 31st, estimates have drifted lower, which isn’t unusual. We’re keeping an eye on revision momentum. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/21416b19-bc4d-454d-8651-c3652191b289/US+dollar+index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 19, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The U.S. dollar index rebounded from its April 21 lows but has seen recent weakness. The index is currently sitting on top of its 21-day MA. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-still-highly-emotional monthly 0.5 2025-05-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1747242271426-3BEZY9W8R2YSAOOFKNLY/day-hagan-tech-talk-05.15.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Still Highly Emotional - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e288d007-ba44-4bd0-ad47-46e6632818c6/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Still Highly Emotional - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | Price momentum (top frame) implies an impending overbought condition (not a reason alone to sell) and resistance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6c6e9218-165c-4a76-8f3a-d8c94ef0589c/sml.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Still Highly Emotional - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 600 Small Cap Index. | Much work still needs to be done in this complex, hence all the lines. Resistance is depicted in red, support in green. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dfd1e66a-ae4c-479a-91c0-ccea28b7e8f4/gld.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Still Highly Emotional - Make it stand out Figure 3: SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD-gold proxy). | While it has been sideways, a violation of support ($295+/-, $290+/-) would likely set the downside in motion. Support is depicted in green. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-may-13-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-05-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1af27b25-d8b6-41e4-b29e-b94cc7c50378/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 13, 2025 Figure 1: The DH Daily Market Sentiment Composite tracks trader sentiment via daily surveys, equity market breadth, put/call ratios, volatility, momentum, and high-yield bond activity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6c8d3d77-afea-4158-ac60-d47022406096/Economic+Policy+Uncertainty+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 13, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index and Equity Market-related Economic Uncertainty Index differ in scope. The EPU Index measures uncertainty from policy-related events, using news coverage, tax code changes, and economic forecasts. The Equity Market-related Index focuses on equity market volatility, driven by stock price fluctuations and investor sentiment. While EPU captures broad policy impacts, the Equity Index reflects market-specific uncertainty, making them distinct in their economic implications. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c84b23bb-e34c-4306-96da-cfdb132e3ed7/Gamma+Bar+Chart.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 13, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Positive gamma indications for the 5-16-2025 OPEX. Positive gamma = lower volatility. The VIX is currently below 18, confirming the lower volatility backdrop. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/36ae123d-a147-410e-a3ab-6d36696199bc/Rallies+3+Days+in+a+Row.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 13, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: We’ve increased the number of indicators that can provide breadth thrust buy signals, allowing us to more accurately identify potential market lows. Below is an example of the 3-day Rally Reversal breadth thrust indicator. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f26f71a1-f6ab-409f-8cbb-66749d5eda77/Russell+3000+52W+new+Highs+minus+New+Lows.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 13, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Oversold mean reversion indicators alert us when selling has reached panic and exhaustion levels. They identify the first steps in the bottoming process. Breadth Thrust measures typically trigger after the lows, confirming the probability that a major low is in place. When a breadth thrust occurs after our oversold mean reversion indicators have triggered a buy signal, it has historically been very bullish for longer-term returns. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b03cf3d8-72a5-4bcb-875c-26da32d4a5f9/SP+Futures+Other+Gross+Long+Change.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 13, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Many institutional investors were underweight stocks heading into the rally. Thus, the chase. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/98000566-c17b-4e0f-a970-5928941d972d/10+Percent+Volatility+Targeting.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 13, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: 10% volatility targeting implied equity allocation is just 26.6%. There’s still some dry powder. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/332c4bf8-c244-45f9-a9a1-240549ef3086/SP500+Forward+12+month+earnings+around+10+percent+correction+dates.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 13, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Equity markets generally follow earnings trends. Q2 earnings expectations are relatively low, potentially providing an upside surprise. Stay tuned. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b2f19e35-1b4e-465c-ae7f-01460e48a567/5+year+Breakeven+Inflation+rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 13, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Inflation concerns abating. Absent renewed tariff rhetoric, we expect continued improvement. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9a3cfbfc-ff49-480a-8efa-9c1cfd731fdd/evolution-of-atlanta-fed-gdp.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 13, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: This is a volatile series, but currently points to trend growth in Q2.th in Q2. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-may-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-05-06 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-may-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-05-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/53b3e2e0-0ede-410d-9fea-2551cbf400e5/Australia.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: The uptrend in gold is bullish for Australia. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d6193835-3e7b-4db6-acd5-02a0c0e7fd69/Canada.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Canada’s recent relative strength is rolling over. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a114f563-411a-452d-8114-dfb3fca2dc4c/China.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: High-yield option-adjusted spreads are a good proxy for risk-on or risk-off and are useful for calling risk-on asset classes like China’s equity markets. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d4fa2d5d-937d-4624-b5d1-cbfc0e7a3ace/France.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Leading economic indicators for France leveling out. Rated neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/789393f2-7d09-479d-81c4-2f4f74a6098e/Germany.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: German manufacturing confidence is improving. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7ef61100-46eb-48aa-8ae4-c4f49f559c6b/Japan.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Investor sentiment for the Nikkei is pessimistic. A reversal from these lows would be bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8f79204b-0da4-4ccb-8f74-8f55e6948e8a/Switzerland.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: A slowing international ETF net issuance rate has historically been negative for the Swiss market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f5fb5b8e-a27d-49f2-86ce-bf58eb8e36f7/UK.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Investor sentiment for the FTSE 100 has reversed from pessimism. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/56452f59-4649-4f9a-b42e-0f3406ddf920/sp500-vs-dh-daily-market-sentiment-composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-may-5-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-05-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/236bea73-3a9f-408e-978e-412b9779262c/Consumer+Discretionary+OBOS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Consumer Discretionary reversing from oversold levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3cb323c0-3dba-4148-ac8a-2162ba950dbc/Consumer+Staples.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Approaching overbought levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c8e75d75-8d33-4d13-93bf-c9c87e1e19b1/Communication+Services.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Communication Services sector exiting extreme oversold conditions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9a35458e-74b4-494c-af11-ac118a863c9e/Energy+Sector.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Relative strength trends for the Energy sector have tended to persist. A reversal in the indicator below, confirmed by the composite model, would increase the probability of a longer-term uptrend. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e5c4d47f-2bbd-42ce-b916-5d1a31402fd9/Financials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The Financials sector is facing a slowing economic regime. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f96098ea-ee81-4680-b072-1e1ffab245cc/Health+Care.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: New construction trends for healthcare facilities have decreased since 2022. Indicates a deterioration in CEO optimism. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/87fca224-b54a-4d8b-a695-ae33d4a34563/Industrials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Short-term momentum measures are starting to appear stretched. We need to see intermediate-term indicators confirm for an overweight rating. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ffe6b8b0-2850-4fe6-81c9-3f10738268b6/Information+Technology.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Increasing short interest levels are bullish supports. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8c79ed16-f0b0-455b-af47-44ecf1abc12a/Materials.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The recent uptick in gold prices is a positive support for the materials sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3778d8ee-e9b9-4ddb-8c93-671920f1f99b/real-estate.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Tighter business credit conditions are a headwind for real estate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6e5ec768-0bf3-4f13-b04a-6dd29eb1e5e5/Utilities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The 50-day relative breadth oscillator is oversold. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/36a53887-15b3-4d06-a92c-c47b80560ca3/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-may-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-05-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bdad908c-df9d-4c44-a2e0-547cb96d515f/US+Treasuries.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 1: CDS rates have recently reversed. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2da4fc60-06de-420d-87e9-15894c55fc59/TIPS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weaker commodity prices often lead to lower inflation pressures. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f3d9497c-9abd-454c-a5c4-8c1118c5bc2c/Mortgage+Backed+Securities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Rising inflation expectations are negative for MBS. The series has recently reversed from lows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/157a989e-2d2b-45bf-923b-d3b42bbf27a6/Floating+Rate+Note.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Higher equity volatility drives investors toward quality. As volatility subsides, FRNs should benefit. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/869cf79b-b60a-42a9-9758-6cc63b694548/International+IG+Corporate+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Technical indicators confirm improvement of U.S. IG Corporates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ab42efb3-c259-4b74-ac89-4ed31ef2e74e/High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Continued improvement in small-cap equity performance would support high-yield bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9f4112e4-160b-40e0-a01d-c0a6b3d138f3/International+IG+Corporate+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Narrowing OAS is positive for all fixed income sectors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/93979061-a08f-45b8-9140-a8339ac560aa/Emerging+Market+EM+bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Commodity price weakness is also negative for EM bonds. Indicates potential deceleration in global economic activity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/56452f59-4649-4f9a-b42e-0f3406ddf920/sp500-vs-dh-daily-market-sentiment-composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-may-5-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-05-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/49394007-bd1b-4676-a538-23e14b053715/DH+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 5, 2025 Figure 1: S&P 500 Index vs. Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7a42ee4d-3a02-4d3d-85de-9a080a82f782/NDR+Crowd+Sentiment+Poll.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 Index vs. NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll – Transitional Mode Basis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/20038a96-a9cd-435a-bf37-78330f5d101c/SP500+10+day+rate+of+change+with+Z+score.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 10-Day Rate of Change (5-Month Z-Score) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6857a58f-9f61-453e-98cd-958d0aa6f3ff/Russell+3000+50-day+SMA+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Russell 3000 50-Day SMA Breadth https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d195e17f-8f86-44ba-ba0f-c40439c9cb47/Smart+Money+Confidence.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Smart Money Confidence https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2f162228-33c9-42cc-9bcb-32df9e5302d3/Equity+Hedging+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Equity Hedging Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6af49eaf-06f0-4a98-8c91-1d5dbe46c953/SP500+Major+Bottoms.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: S&P 500 Major Bottoms – Double-Bottom Retests https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/499add1e-dc31-45d9-82bf-a2d6b60eedc8/SP500+Forward+12+month+earnings+around+10%25+corrections.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: S&P 500 Forward 12-Month Earnings Around 10% S&P 500 Correction Dates https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3770107d-e97d-42fb-ad36-85a7a583bdc2/OAS+on+Agencies+Mortgages+Corporates+High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: OAS on Agencies, Mortgages, Corporates, and High Yield https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/06dafc0b-98d5-48a9-8485-8c3eb9c8a0eb/Fed+Funds+Futures+Yield+Curve.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update May 5, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Fed Funds Futures Yield Curve https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-peak-or-peek monthly 0.5 2025-05-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1746036034975-6WK7BNPMEU18FIJXSZ94/day-hagan-tech-talk-04.30.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Peak or Peek - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/963021d2-6800-4dbc-8000-40223558b463/spx-two-hour-chart.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Peak or Peek - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | SPX has moved above resistance and must contend with gap resistance (red box). Support is depicted in green. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bb211180-4768-4fb8-bcf6-885cb1cbc9c2/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Peak or Peek - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with 50- and 200-day MA plus Relative Strength Index. | Price momentum (top frame) suggests resistance (5613 [falling 50-day MA] and 5700 to 5800+/-) will get worked over. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-april-28-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-04-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b45b0231-dc52-441e-aceb-3780ba83c0b3/Day+Hagan+Daily+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 Figure 1: Day Hagan Daily Market Sentiment Composite. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/31ce8efb-0908-4e18-865f-3d49b2d00911/Van+Eck+Semiconductor+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: SMH ETF trends help define risk-on vs. risk-off. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ca05e445-3ea9-4934-99b5-6b7b42c73dbe/Semiconductor+Industry+Billings.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Semiconductor billings still trending higher, but we’re watching to see if a peak is confirmed. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5ec06681-455e-487d-b9b1-c2496b9af445/SP500+Information+Technology+Relative+Strength.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The Information Technology sector is overbought on a very short-term basis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a36d3f22-35a5-49e9-a14f-bbb59a31f2fd/SP500+Rallies+3+Days+in+a+Row.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Equity and bond market breadth improving. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c029868c-b82b-431f-9a4a-5007d1d4baea/Russell+3000+52W+New+Highs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Selling reached exhaustion levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7c2e3359-bffe-4ee3-bf59-1a1952bd8c65/GS+US+Equity+Sentiment+Indicator.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Equity investors are underweight stocks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1e10c58c-ba81-4da1-8b59-2a475598d295/Call+and+Put+Gamma+Exposure+SPY.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Negative gamma conditions persist. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/af2bf0db-2fe9-4089-913d-a14fe3840bac/SP500+buybacks.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Buybacks are supportive overall. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cacf6362-1e1c-4145-b075-6a4f3af37272/Consumer+Price+Increase+table++via+tariffs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: If tariffs are implemented without any “deals, " the following impacts could result. We assign a very low probability to this outcome. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5f9e6882-d0c1-4f63-8fa8-1df8b7693718/NDR+Inflation+Timing+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Inflation pressures remain tame so far. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/76a6399d-3dbd-464b-a5dd-87cb752b2475/Figure+12A%3A+Economic+activity+holding+up%2C+but+decelerating.+Our+recession-watch+indicators+have+not+yet+triggered+a+warning. Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12A: Economic activity holding up, but decelerating. Our recession-watch indicators have not yet triggered a warning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dbb8f2c5-9774-4db0-bd7f-185d55ffd1b6/Small+Business+Uncertainty.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12B: Economic activity holding up, but decelerating. Our recession-watch indicators have not yet triggered a warning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d676e4e7-e38c-4907-8156-483bb5f44fec/SP500+Forward+12+Month+Earnings.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Earnings are OK so far, but we will continue to monitor this chart for signs that problems may arise. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1dea26ba-7165-4c2a-be33-bd214380bf98/SP500+EPS+Revision+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Negative revision trends are concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3deab1a8-f427-4d44-898d-a653d10b92ac/OAS+on+Agencies.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Even with the “basis trade” blowout two weeks ago, OAS for agencies, mortgage-backed securities, U.S. Investment Grade Corporates, and High Yield are behaving. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/55046651-de69-447a-ab4c-12be237c7765/Target+Rate+Probabilities.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 16: Rate cuts expected. The bars below illustrate expectations for December 10, 2025. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-april-23-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-05-21 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-april-21-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-04-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c0648414-4af0-4fa3-8d4f-ef980191f7c9/Russell+3000+Ratio+of+Adv.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 Figure 1: Oversold conditions in place https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/371abd77-2cdd-4d76-be8b-e0b3ce49fd5d/Day+Hagan+Daily+Market+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment is excessively pessimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/422ce4fc-5edf-4dda-8a74-b410d1acb3cb/10+Percent+Volatility+Targeting.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Systematic traders underweight equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fe869c64-f137-46c9-8db1-2ed2d061eca4/DBMF+Exposure.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: CTAs underweight equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/274e9157-dab5-4cd8-aec5-8fc0c66c35b9/SP500+Index+vs+50+Day+and+200+Day+Moving+Averages.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: A death cross is not necessarily a death sentence unless there is a recession. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/40b3d6c7-6b88-4c4a-bd60-3d4a46a5989b/Economic+Policy+Uncertainty.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Policy uncertainty remains a major headwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f5110cd8-fad3-4a15-9bdb-ff58e323b90a/Conference+Board+Leading+Economic+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The recent LEI report shows economic deceleration, but not a recession. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/902550fe-feb1-4f9a-b896-f05e875c3c42/Evolution+of+Atlanta+Fed+Now.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: GDPNow model forecast negatively impacted by trade deficit, including gold imports. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8d6186f7-8590-43a4-83b7-dc001183a7f4/5+year+breakeven+inflation+rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Inflation pressures are currently decelerating. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate is heading toward 2%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7edd1e48-1558-47ee-8f16-03e3443a9c13/SP500+Forward+12+Month+Earnings+around+10+percent+corrections.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Earnings need to stabilize, or multiples will eventually be impacted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5f2aafad-93c3-47e8-8d07-5711f610e0c1/sp500-drawdowns-vs-hy-credit-spread-increases.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: High-yield credit spreads' reaction to the equity decline is currently viewed as describing a non-recessionary environment. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e1fdfee4-580c-4942-8b83-2f079c40e4a0/ICE+BofA+US+High+Yield+Index+Option+Adjusted+Credit+Spread.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: High-yield OAS consistent with the 2023 market lows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3607c684-7a67-432f-bbc6-6114b96fad1b/High+Yield+OAS+MACD.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: A reversal would be bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9a9a17f4-6f4a-465b-8a52-c200798470bc/US+Dollar+Index+DSI+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: U.S. dollar sentiment nearing levels denoting excessive pessimism. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3157ea07-32be-45f3-896c-588e498c2ff7/Target+Rate+Probabilities.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 15: The Fed could change the course of the market quickly. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-helter-skelter monthly 0.5 2025-04-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1744820762149-IKDWMM1JXZ0OIWH9RIW6/day-hagan-tech-talk-04.16.2025-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Helter-Skelter - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a2a28b1f-4f2e-483d-8cc7-3ab5b2ca17ec/s-and-p-500.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Helter-Skelter - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 with falling 21-day and 50-day MA. | Resistance in red, support in green. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9a608aa5-5a89-47fd-9220-eba0f61fb6a9/usd.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Helter-Skelter - Make it stand out Figure 2: U.S. Dollar Index and Overbought/Oversold gauge. | What might be brewing under the surface, as the U.S. dollar and fixed income have been under pressure simultaneously? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/de9abf84-ce87-4f2c-aca9-ed7c6b431db5/move.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Helter-Skelter - Make it stand out Figure 3: MOVE Index. | A move above resistance would imply further volatility in the fixed income market, which may bleed over into equities due to increasing domestic political/policy/confidence risk. For now, a deeper pullback would be supportive. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-april-15-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-04-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/95bea546-671d-412f-a9b3-7932ee751cff/Russell+3000+Ratio+of+Adv+%2B+1-2+Unchanged.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 15, 2025 Figure 1: Oversold levels reached were consistent with previous significant lows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/da021c1d-ce3d-4262-a9e0-446d02848cf2/Oversold+Mean+Reversion+Factor.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Oversold Mean Reversion Factor shows that the markets registered their fourth most-oversold level since 1980, on par with levels seen in 1987 after Black Monday. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d227017d-4ab6-4e28-900c-e5b53a653f63/Russell+3000+5+Week+ROC.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Buy signals from our series of Breadth Thrust indicators have historically identified good times to put money to work. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b035ef33-b5bb-4dc6-b9e3-51bb6a18b3ff/SP500+Rallies+3+Days+in+a+Row.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Strong three-consecutive-day rallies have historically identified better risk/reward opportunities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a3a2be5-e4dc-48aa-beff-287c4ec0959d/NDR+Daily+Trading+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Sentiment levels showing this much excess pessimism have typically exerted a tailwind for stocks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d6920d7d-8576-40d6-922b-a98914b78487/sp500-vs-cnn-fear-and-greed-index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: A sustained move back above 40 would be bullish and confirm that investors are risk-on. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/96847023-cd6e-4028-8324-2b8caa1bd83a/Smart+Money+Confidence.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Smart Money Confidence is bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f000cde2-033e-4b22-afb6-06a32ca05247/Citigroup+Economic+Surprise+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Over the past three months, economic releases have come in below expectations (on average). However, recent data releases have beaten expectations. We are looking for this indicator to improve. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a0d92005-8d6b-4186-902b-b02008ed98e8/Q1+2025+Earnings+Growth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Earnings growth will be key, and expectations are now actually higher than March 31 levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/06bcc452-9db1-4e48-b13c-e2a4d2ee5b9e/CY+2025+Growth+SP500+earnings+year+over+year.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Calendar year 2025 earnings expectations still constructive, although the trend has been lower since March 31. (Q2 earnings expectations are down from 9.2% on March 31 to 8.2% currently.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/11ca13e7-01f4-45ba-93aa-fd3c9bcc8911/Fed+Watch+Tool.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The Fed is a bullish support. The chart below illustrates market expectations for the December 10, 2025, meeting. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/348139e6-3001-44a9-b6cd-0d6aa3b7bc16/Economic+Policy+Uncertainty+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 15, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Chart of the Day - U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Current value = 540.2 as of 4-14-2025. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-april-8-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-04-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/48a3469c-c71c-4db5-a9d0-d607ce84d37e/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 8, 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c37733b0-db5b-40e3-b33f-70140c28180d/Index+of+Coincident+Economic+Indicators.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 8, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Economic Timing Model portrays an environment conducive to moderate economic growth https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9a3460b8-9bef-42ed-8145-99bd7befb41d/Inflation+Timing+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 8, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Inflation Timing Model’s message is Moderate Disinflation https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1ce03931-4ab8-48f4-83c9-8d479b14aab9/S%26P+500+10+Day+Rate+of+Change.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 8, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Short-term oversold conditions in place. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/67b42606-9910-46cd-a850-a56b0722aa37/Russell+3000+New+Highs+New+Lows.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 8, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: New Highs – New Lows nearing levels where selling has previously exhausted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/92ed4a86-9b07-480c-b29b-3d832259da2e/Russell+3000+ratio+of+Advancers+to+Total+Issues.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 8, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The percentage of advancing stocks in the Russell 3000 has reached levels where bottoms have formed. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/65a2d143-c888-494d-b9bb-3e3a35c586ba/Value+Line+Arithmetic+252+day+ROC.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 8, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Value Line Arithmetic Index 252-day Rate of Change. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9074010f-2205-4ad8-9f2a-66bbb402ed76/Russell+3000+percentage+of+stocks+above+50+day+SMA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 8, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Percentage of stocks above 50-day SMAs = 5.37%. So bad, it's good? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6d29b544-35c7-4811-a5c4-c343e74f0cb6/Russell+3000+10+Day+Advances+to+10+Day+Declines.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 8, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Breadth thrust indicators often confirm the veracity of an uptrend. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8c0be6ca-e6c5-449c-ad62-523256eee599/CNN+Fear+and+Greed.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 8, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: CNN Fear and Greed Index registering Extreme Pessimism. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3ac179d4-6b72-4f4d-9b9b-ac737460e148/High+Yield+Credit+Spreads.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 8, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: High-Yield Option-Adjusted Spreads have widened. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f7709daf-3388-4240-9663-8d387a5954b4/6-month+Implied+Forward+Treasury+Bill+rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update April 8, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Two rate cuts are currently expected within the next six months. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-special-chart-update monthly 0.5 2025-04-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/01ff0ad8-7903-4c1a-a0b0-59e8d735539f/day-hagan-tech-talk-04.08.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Special Chart Update - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d94bae42-274f-4ebb-84e8-6b97a7189ab1/s-and-p-500-weekly.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Special Chart Update - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 (weekly). | If there isn’t a recession (our models don’t yet suggest one), the current decline has extended beyond what would be expected. The Low-Rally Retest bottoming sequence coupled with breadth thrusts begins anew – more below. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b717089a-9d7a-4498-a494-b5ea030fdd88/speculative+short.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Special Chart Update - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 – Speculative Short ETF Volume. | Readings of 60% have a perfect one-year forward track record. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6da95d68-039a-4c17-a4cd-f170d5152925/s-and-p-500-monthly.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Special Chart Update - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 with Monthly Momentum (MACD). | “The average recessionary correction/Bear market suffers a max drawdown of ~25 to ~27%.” The SPX’s closing high was 6144. 6144 minus 25% to 27% equates to 4608 to 4500. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-april-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-04-07 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-april-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-04-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f84cd26b-db0a-4f5d-b7da-b1827d107705/Catastrophic+Stop+4-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-april-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-04-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e1595964-4ab0-44db-a4fc-d27620b22289/Catastrophic+Stop+4-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-april-7-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-04-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d801bec4-8f9c-42b1-9219-7d02a171288f/Catastrophic+Stop+Model+4-1-2025.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update April 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-poster-child monthly 0.5 2025-04-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1743619303908-1H7GWOJJAWJYYEFJRF9E/day-hagan-tech-talk-04.02.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Poster Child - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2dc09a20-c689-4c20-999c-8eccde21c314/btcusd.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Poster Child - Make it stand out Figure 1: Bitcoin with falling 50-day MA (red dashed line). | Price trend remains defensive (risk-off), until/unless a decisive close above ~90,000 to 91,500 occurs. Until then, a target of ~74,000 to 70,000 and maybe 65,000 (previous breakout range and uptrend line) shouldn’t be dismissed. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/443db27c-30d2-414d-8c8e-d5ac6696abfe/hyioas.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Poster Child - Make it stand out Figure 2: U.S. High Yield Index Option Adjusted Spreads. | How this spread reacts to today’s “Liberation Day” announcements and future announcements will be an important short-term guidepost. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/05a74a5d-d092-4162-9c61-71cf63e5d1e3/prii.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Poster Child - Make it stand out Figure 3: Crude Oil and Inflation Index. | These two have, for the most part, moved in lockstep. Closely monitor Crude Oil as I think it could be vital in the fight against inflation/inflation expectations! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3ce4f721-bcf4-4714-9a71-9797da4e48a8/spx.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Poster Child - Make it stand out Figure 4: S&P 500 with falling 50-day MA. | Following the recent retest, a decisive violation of the twin-lows (support) would increase the odds of a cascade of selling because weekly and monthly momentum (not shown, reach out for chart) is negative. Resistance is in red, support is in green. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-march-31-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-03-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/00a75350-19fd-4491-928f-b0d173de1c7c/Catastrophic+Stop+3-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 31, 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/12dd14a8-ee46-4694-bf62-54578395c46a/SP500+10+Day+Rate+of+Change.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 10-day ROC is oversold. However, we need to see our intermediate-term measures stabilize as well. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eb3515bf-afaf-4b5e-9925-2c371b2a39f3/CNN+Fear+and+Greed+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Sentiment is excessively pessimistic. A reversal back above 40 would be bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7ad327af-ffb9-4180-80a6-08bbe2cbfb15/Smart+Money+Confidence.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The Smart Money is getting more bullish (based on positioning). Levels are commensurate with what we saw near the 2020 lows and higher than those at the 2024 (August 5) low. (Source: Sentimentrader) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/376e3858-3872-404e-bea0-3e4108c50fe8/SP500+Forward12+month+earnings.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Earnings estimates trends can help forecast our recession probabilities. If earnings turn significantly lower, we will increase our recession probability odds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dd3e0651-5ea3-4de4-b435-fb7c0f7d2b2d/Economic+Policy+Uncertainty.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Economic Policy Uncertainty Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/92021262-3718-4943-8b95-3e95a057e56c/economic+policy+uncertainty+around+10+percent+corrections.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Historically, if policy uncertainty doesn’t abate, declines have tended to extend. (Note: This is why the market spikes higher on news that seems to alleviate uncertainty.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cb254ffc-584b-4994-b967-338ac758e629/Global+Economic+Policy+Uncertainty.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The GDP-weighted average Economic Policy Uncertainty Index of 20 countries shows that most countries do not have a clearly defined path for fiscal, monetary, and legislative policies. Removing ambiguity should support equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b9493af5-51e1-4c08-b676-ea9008600c41/m2.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Money supply growth is constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dc86462e-c788-4d1b-879e-a743d0f9a92c/St+Louis+Financial+Stress+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: While uncertainty rules the day, the hard data indicates that stress underneath the hood is relatively tame (though increasing). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/627c3d52-a51e-463b-bd4e-ee3dfd7783ff/cboe-sp500-3-month-volatility-index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Equity volatility not showing panic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b3006fd3-d39b-4884-bd9b-47a6b67159f5/2025+Cycle+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 31, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Seasonality may provide a boost as we enter April. Even so, earnings guidance will be key. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-march-25-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-04-24 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-march-25-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-03-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c4727c84-2ab0-45cf-afe1-afebac66cfab/Catastrophic+Stop+Model+3-24.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 25, 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c73abba1-21e8-43fb-9330-0ed647a84283/SP500+after+10+percent+corrections.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Average path of the S&P 500 after 10% corrections delineated based on whether a recession begins within 12 months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/093f8843-ec09-4973-9812-d2a846befa8c/SP500+first+crosses+above+200+day+SMA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: A 10% correction, no recession, and a move back above the 200-day MA have historically marked a good time to put money to work. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f83e655f-bbe0-40a0-bc01-98b2c3908427/Volume+adjusted+demand+minus+supply.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Demand continues to outpace supply. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f43e73dc-b76a-4d97-a10e-4f113eeb6f8f/NDR+Multicap+10+day+advance+vs+declines.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Breadth thrust buy signals based on the 10-day A/D line (among others) have historically identified significant investable lows. Since 1947, 45 out of 46 signals have seen positive returns. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ff3a4438-c4c9-413c-9d18-1ba09036da8e/Daily+Sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Short-term sentiment is bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/54f570a1-ab0e-4663-bd8d-f0e0df278323/Hedge+funds+have+rarely+been+more+bearish.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Positioning is reminiscent of current sentiment readings: Pessimism levels are excessive relative to history. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4a5a9201-52ce-4c42-afff-873af2a10f1b/Overall+equity+positioning.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Positioning levels are similar to those seen during the 2023 and 2024 lows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6d07355a-6a50-40f4-81c8-30298623e1d9/Manufacturing+PMI.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Flash Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. exposed some concerns. We’ll be monitoring production and inflation-adjacent indicators for signs of confirmation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/98c799b9-8aa1-4de5-abd7-d840d57d9c41/Services+PMI.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The service economy is holding up well. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-march-18-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-03-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/14204c75-f57e-4545-8efb-6a85ae57c2df/Catastrophic+Stop+model+3-18.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 18, 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index. Note: Current levels are near what was observed at the low on August 5, 2024 (blue circle). A break below 40% for two consecutive days would generate a sell signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4d28dc07-7647-463f-b0d4-98f99f6153d6/High+Yield+OAS+Factor+3-18.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Credit spreads are widening but remain below long-term averages. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9827f620-01b8-42d2-acbc-503018954b32/OAS.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: OAS for U.S. IG Corporates, High Yield, Mortgage-Backed Securities, and Agencies trending higher but at the lower end of the longer-term range. Caution signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2d58c323-6d2c-4030-84c2-d722ef9c18e7/Oversold+Mean+Reversion.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Markets are oversold. However, if economic activity meaningfully decelerates, this indicator could move to deeper oversold levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d4226778-df51-4a66-9fa5-75c7bcf11918/Buying+a+10+Percent+Dip.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Buying after 10% corrections has historically been a good move, assuming no recession. (via MarketEar) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/558357c6-d275-4ae9-9d27-de692dc1d2a7/2025+Cycle+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Seasonal forces are turning positive in April https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bd956ef5-2fb5-480d-925c-7420e4045d5a/CNN+Fear+and+Greed+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Short-term sentiment measures show pessimism is rife within the markets https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0aa54aab-d010-4d65-bcd1-473822951413/Economic+Policy+Uncertainty.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Policy uncertainty is a driver of risk-off actions and can be a problem if not addressed https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1c8c9381-970a-4643-9e68-0d285a381302/Small+business+credit+conditions.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Credit conditions are still supportive. Measures of business and consumer credit conditions are positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ef88453f-b72f-4808-a167-c151da346d13/Manufacturing+PMI.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The Manufacturing PMI does not currently portend an extended economic slowdown https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/36118461-ac58-49df-97de-e06f7028d3fd/Services+PMI.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The Services PMI is softening, but still in expansion territory. Watching closely. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-cardiac-arrest monthly 0.5 2025-04-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1742227022146-R4359P5OI4F72LIEYTWL/day-hagan-tech-talk-03.17.2025-1200x675px-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Cardiac Arrest - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/76bc5752-5452-40f9-8d92-02dc861dec75/indu.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Cardiac Arrest - Make it stand out Figure 1: Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ. | If last Friday’s 10:1 up day is valid (definition below), how resistance is handled, as well as a retest of support, will be very telling. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-spring-ahead-fall-back monthly 0.5 2025-03-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1741802915020-Z11G4MDEKSN2RUA3ESK9/day-hagan-tech-talk-03.12.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Spring Ahead, Fall Back - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/98f44c50-2873-4223-ab87-c6a8cc4d5574/sphb.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Spring Ahead, Fall Back - Make it stand out Figure 1: High Beta proxy vs. Low Beta proxy. | Approaching short-term (tactical) extremes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/710fafd6-e7f6-4085-8c7e-4c71b0271e38/spx-daily-chart.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Spring Ahead, Fall Back - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500. | Please see verbiage inside the chart. Resistance levels noted in red. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/61ea1233-bef5-4f20-aef4-223c89dcb2f7/spx-weekly.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Spring Ahead, Fall Back - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 (weekly). | An old friend and I used to ask each other, “What is the least likely scenario?” and “What is the worst-case scenario?” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7f10ff5f-2053-4c54-872f-4503fefad39a/s-and-p-500-cycle-composite.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Spring Ahead, Fall Back - Make it stand out Figure 4: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2025. | Based on this chart alone, a volatile March, in both directions, should be expected, followed by a strong period between April and early July. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a00b0c35-e0c2-4495-8361-00c32450d729/lumber.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Spring Ahead, Fall Back - Make it stand out Figure 5: Bearish to Bullish Chart Configuration. | Weekly charts all include a rising 40-week MA. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-march-11-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-03-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7ac96e23-850b-46c8-95da-e6065dae04f3/Catastrophic+Stop+3-11.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/86a65409-7848-4029-a52a-39c301ef0a21/Anatomy+of+S%26P+500+declines.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Anatomy of S&P 500 Index Declines since 1928 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ac1e0018-be88-4ea4-9d3f-6c473e6084ac/Deep+Short+Gamma.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The gamma condition of the market is negative (source: MarketEar). A move to positive would support an uptrend. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e906c07a-960b-4f14-9f1f-ec68c952792d/CTAs+have+sold+aggressively.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Selling pressure from systematic investors has been significant but is now at levels consistent with previous reversals. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bbc3e222-5ece-4adf-a98f-1ff349973c32/M2+Money+Supply.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: M2 money supply year/year change is positive. Speaks to economic liquidity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/60a0a131-2770-4b34-abee-fed1d8f85991/Unemployment+Job+Losers.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Employment statistics are inconsistent with a recession, though there can be some lag in the numbers. The level of “Job Losers” is at the lower end of a nearly 60-year range. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9c4d1cfc-5689-40db-bb3a-a48e802d2cae/St+Louis+Financial+Stress.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index evaluates interest rates, yield spreads, equity and bond volatility, inflation measures, and equity trends. The weight of the evidence indicates that financial stress is still relatively low and confirms that the markets are functioning normally. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1525fc14-c10d-41a1-88e2-c691c8057113/SP500+GAAP+Earnings+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Although earnings forecasts have decreased in recent weeks, the overall environment is still supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a5b587d1-bd63-403c-b938-23bba21d0b26/SP+500+companies+citing+tariffs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: One of the main sticking points is the uncertainty around tariff policy and potential reciprocity. As we’ve discussed in previous emails, if tariffs and reciprocal tariffs are maintained around the 25% level (on average for most goods), the hit to U.S. GDP is estimated to be around 50 bps while increasing inflationary pressures by 60 bps in 2025 (source: GS). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/874ecdd2-b97d-46be-926e-590fbce63a20/Daily+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Excessive pessimism. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/17a84deb-9b61-41fc-a3c0-42e96de3a19f/oas.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Given the hit to small-caps, we’d expect a more significant widening in High-Yield OAS. The fact that it hasn’t is constructive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7eafdd72-3b33-49d4-bd1f-178ceca78a01/NASDAQ+Composite+Downside+Thrust.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The downside move in the NASDAQ has been orderly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1924cf6d-5cca-476b-bb72-62ef11d153f4/SP500+vs+Momentum+Reversals.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Our shorter-term indicators have flipped negative but are unconfirmed by our intermediate-term measures. We will continue to invest in accordance with the models' messages. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-march-06-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-03-06 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-march-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-03-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3ef3d060-dbbc-4ad6-a1d1-8b0f548fb439/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop Model level is 72.86%. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-march-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-03-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3ef3d060-dbbc-4ad6-a1d1-8b0f548fb439/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-march-05-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-03-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3ef3d060-dbbc-4ad6-a1d1-8b0f548fb439/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 5, 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-say-what monthly 0.5 2025-03-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5603ea5e-98a8-4f90-9ba8-9ba56c458514/day-hagan-tech-talk-03.05.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Say What? - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/847167a5-1da0-4599-8a3f-f1a41602a2ac/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Say What? - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 with rising 200-day MA support. | Please see the verbiage inside the chart, including support (green and blue), resistance (red), and “Bottom Line” below. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5b32218a-629d-4e7c-917e-8830579b3819/nasdaq.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Say What? - Make it stand out Figure 2: NASDAQ with rising 200-day MA support. | Yet again, the rising 200-day MA support held. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/85772215-03b8-47f3-996e-9255da6d0fb2/hyioas.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Say What? - Make it stand out Figure 3: High Yield Option Adjusted Spreads. | Stability above the red line would be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d6a40d8e-7bd6-40e8-a01d-8872eac97511/TNX.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Say What? - Make it stand out Figure 4: CBOE 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Index (TNX/42.10). | While a move higher should occur in this area, Friday’s employment report will dictate a lot. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-march-04-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-03-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9fc0a66b-1742-4d69-8449-da8344f40bb5/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 4, 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dcdf1a01-79a0-4cfc-84e8-e92683b682a2/Regime.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Slowing economic growth and rising inflationary pressures have tended to mute gains. However, the main concern is when economic growth weakens substantially. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/58b48049-b6e1-428c-ae3f-9436a48525ee/Atlanta+Fed+GDPNow+model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Investor concern about economic growth ratcheted up with the latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. However, there are some idiosyncrasies to be aware of. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/490729b0-f3ad-4f55-b946-849aba9635a1/Subcomponents.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The increase in the trade deficit significantly impacted the model’s result. As shown in the bars before 2-28-2025, net exports (in light teal) typically subtracted less than 0.5% from the GDPNow model estimate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2e1f6163-2e39-49ce-a606-e60b8de33edf/3-3-2025+table+ISM.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The details of the latest GDPNow forecast. We’re keeping an eye on the critical “Consumer Spending” metric. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a8d25264-90f2-4ea7-aa11-5256c891925c/NDR+Economic+Timing+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The broad-based NDR Economic Timing Model supports a “Growth Rising” regime. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5f5c489c-b6a1-4220-94ad-cfd72d0712c1/Composite+readings+table.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Economic Timing Model Indicators https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2e471866-c19a-4b0f-b89b-c7dcea24787a/CNN+Fear+and+Greed.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Sentiment is extremely pessimistic. A reversal from these extreme levels would be bullish. Then, we will look to our intermediate-term indicators for signs that breadth is improving. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9c7f1e32-f44b-49bf-b7a6-a4c356baa8ab/Sp500+10-day+rate+of+change.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Short-term oversold conditions in place. If we don’t see a reversal soon, these indicators will likely give way to our intermediate-term measures. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/42908237-b288-49ba-a71d-f3c83fc15bd5/OAS.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Credit spreads (OAS) are constructive for equities. It would be bearish if the measures below start to move above their respective means. To be clear, that’s not the case at this point. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/95ddc207-fd6d-4cb7-83c4-9cf534e76a16/SP500+vs+Momentum+Reversals.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update March 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Looking for momentum to reverse. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-asked-and-answered monthly 0.5 2025-03-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1740581598626-ODG36YLMOMI55SM7TZEK/day-hagan-tech-talk-02.26.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Asked and Answered - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c9431277-3eb5-4816-bb8a-aa7e195525d5/sp-500.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Asked and Answered - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 (SPX/5955.25) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA/43621.16). | Please refer to the verbiage inside the charts. Arrows and green lines depict support and red lines depict resistance. Please refer to the Bottom Line below. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7e9b7251-a838-48b6-b57f-6edf9d263719/small-cap-proxy-iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Asked and Answered - Make it stand out Figure 2: Small Cap proxy with 200-day MA (blue line). | If this is going to bounce, it has approached the area where it needs to occur now! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7d33d8ce-4a09-47c2-a768-a9770c994749/sp500-large-cap.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Asked and Answered - Make it stand out Figure 3: Year-to-Date Performance. | Humbling, especially after all the huffing and puffing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ce1dbee3-98c9-4214-91e2-bfc08d95028f/us-dollar-to-japanese-yen.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Asked and Answered - Make it stand out Figure 4: U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen with falling 200-day MA. | I do not mean to sound like a broken record, but if this is going to bounce and alleviate some angst, it needs to do so now. Otherwise… https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/02efff36-b149-497a-ac12-4614a0e98e5a/emxc-emegering-markets.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Asked and Answered - Make it stand out Figure 5: Emerging and Emerging ex-China vs. SPX (U.S. proxy) & rising 50-day MA. | I don’t yet know if these trends are long-term or a reversal to the mean trade. I think we will soon get our answer. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/23e9c744-b2d0-47be-aa52-f39e9490a0f6/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Asked and Answered - Make it stand out Figure 6: Hang Seng China and China proxy (weekly) with rising 40-week MA. | Bottom pattern continues. Now, we want to see more than “fast money” enter the fray. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-february-25-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-02-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/616c12aa-6d21-45e1-8364-ac05444ee928/Catastrophic+Stop+2-25.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 25, 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. the S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7de543cb-cf68-45b9-ae03-5463e6aab964/OAS+2-25.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: A spike in credit spreads would be problematic. Currently, spreads are still relatively narrow. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/43371b30-4f85-41a1-9878-996b155cf5f5/SP+Information+Technology+Relative+Strength.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The Information Technology model bounced off the 25% level, avoiding moving into the bearish zone. A move above 50% would be bullish, and a move below 25% would be bearish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fb7301cd-638d-483d-ac7d-49ecd5538d89/Mag+7+Relative+Forward+PE.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: MAG 7 Relative Forward P/E Ratio https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e89eaa24-4d24-43fc-bb8b-1efd54484826/MAG+at+big+levels.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Rotation continues out of the MAGS. However, essential levels are nearby that may lead to reversion. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8a7633f2-7278-4386-9b80-e4bf28e074a6/Tech+Positioning+Elevated.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Tech positioning elevated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4d0e0678-5c5d-47ac-abdb-17c96fc3f3ab/SP500+Overbought+Oversold.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Not yet oversold across the board. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f12b837e-0a9b-444c-89c2-44ecf4a7190f/CNN+Fear+Greed.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Short-term Sentiment has just turned pessimistic. Now, we need to see a reversal showing that sellers are washed out. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4309c2f0-f325-4f47-ac23-ef17dd592c5d/sp500-index-vs-momentum-reversals-2025-02-24.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Monitoring for a new momentum neutral or buy signal https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/41638168-1d77-43d1-9142-97125995f087/6+month+implied+forward+rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 25, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The Fed is not “hawkish,” with a likely easing and discussions around slowing the balance sheet runoff. While not as hopeful as a year ago, it’s essential to remember that the Fed currently provides more of a tailwind than a headwind. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-bang-zoom monthly 0.5 2025-02-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1739988494688-U4GJN715431VNHTW4K3V/day-hagan-tech-talk-02.19.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Bang, Zoom! - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0f0be11a-7b55-4fb3-ab76-218454608cfc/s-and-p-500.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Bang, Zoom! - Make it stand out Figure 1: Domestic Equity Market Proxies. | Arrows and green lines depict support, and red lines depict resistance. Also, please refer back to the summary above and the “Bottom Line” below. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cb9a8592-629b-4ce8-8ced-300b7bd0bd3b/commodity-futures.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Bang, Zoom! - Make it stand out Figure 2: Commodity Futures and Inflation Expectations. | Inflation expectations are rising. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b353b6ac-ffb4-454c-a657-8b5fbb347876/dbc.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Bang, Zoom! - Make it stand out Figure 3: Commodity Proxies. Log chart | Bullish (supportive) long-term chart configurations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a85943cf-344f-4dcf-9586-6f7df4ad5686/silver.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Bang, Zoom! - Make it stand out Figure 4: Silver and Copper (weekly chart) with a rising 40-week MA. | Long-term base breakouts tend to have long-term bullish implications. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-february-18-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-02-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/35143a32-c4e9-49d9-ad14-184fd11c8e0f/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. the S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1fbc3042-d1d9-452c-baac-55281c995384/January+Effect.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: U.S. inflation data is still sticky, but seasonal adjustments likely goosed the numbers higher. The chart below illustrates January changes in used car prices, subtracting the not seasonally adjusted from the seasonally adjusted. The result shows the impact of the seasonal adjustments. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9b8aebbd-2da7-4c89-b366-1a8bc7b7d4f9/NDR+Inflation+Timing+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Inflation pressures are still present but not expected to surge. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b5f7244f-f37d-4614-9e16-8b90fc25caff/CPI+for+Shelter.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Shelter inflation (including OER) accounts for about 35% of headline CPI and 40% of Core CPI. We expect lower shelter costs over the course of the year. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/42f9bea1-c393-4c3a-9d33-1640d94ff15a/Commodity+Breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Commodity breadth isn’t pointing to a spike in prices but is still likely firmer than the Fed would like to see. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e1eeac92-b5bf-4d70-a8e0-350566ebb157/Atlanta+Fed+GDPNow+Estimate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b8080723-5ec3-4cb8-abc1-97a7dee7b304/Regime+Table.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 18, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: As long as economic growth remains stable or expanding, we aren’t expecting a significant equity drawdown at this point. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-a-broken-record monthly 0.5 2025-02-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e3267a3c-8516-4b0d-8765-350ee3eb2dde/day-hagan-tech-talk-02.12.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: A Broken Record - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0e5459c3-6c01-42ff-a81d-d1fc477064ad/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: A Broken Record - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 with upper price labels (resistance) and lower price labels (support). | Near-term resistance and support levels are shown differently. Reach out for a chart that includes lines. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0ed8c014-4d89-4b4b-938c-727c8d998827/year-to-date-performance.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: A Broken Record - Make it stand out Figure 2: Year-to-Date Performance Overseas Markets and the U.S. | Overseas proxy outperforms a U.S. proxy by almost 2.25% year to date. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/73fd2ac4-59a3-4fe7-9f62-7f88a4700169/acwx-spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: A Broken Record - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global Advance-Decline Line and Overseas relative to U.S. | Bearish to bullish relative chart configuration—lower frame. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4d1c8ffa-48e7-414b-b1bb-9ef4a4d2f3fe/ewg.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: A Broken Record - Make it stand out Figure 4: Germany, Canada, and Italy proxies – 18-month daily chart with 200-day MA. |Bullish absolute price chart configurations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ca8b41d9-ba26-41dc-a77f-a458714e62d6/mags.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: A Broken Record - Make it stand out Figure 5: Big Tech ETF (Mag 7 proxy) with 21-day MA and 50-day MA. | “Rollin’, rollin’, rollin’.” https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-february-11-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-02-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4df3477f-fe7d-4332-b449-70abb71376fc/Catastrophic+Stop+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 11, 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. the S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c3c908b6-680e-479c-8a0d-442227eebad8/Index+Seasonality.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: February’s daily seasonality turns negative on February 18, based on the past 30 years of history. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a0680b63-5cc3-4a5c-afe5-01b3c293715c/March+Index+Seasonality.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: March daily seasonality for the SPX. (It is interesting how the first half of each month looks better than the back half.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/68415a96-d1d7-485c-9ce3-7aff5e246fb4/SP500+Cycle+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2025 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9d4b06c3-9a95-4f0e-bea0-c482fd697994/High+Yield+bond+breadth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Positive high-yield bond breadth is supportive for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5e4725a3-ac4c-41cc-bd7d-47eec80847c0/OAS+on+Corporates.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Option-adjusted spreads still narrow for IG Corporates, High Yield, MBS, and Agencies. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b21503cb-f256-450c-abb8-22fa805d3de2/CNN+Fear+and+Greed.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Sentiment has reversed from levels denoting extreme pessimism but has not yet reached overly optimistic levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0ef625b3-16c5-4166-8c09-bb5780d77a7d/NFIB+Key+Findings.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: NFIB survey respondents are worried about inflation and finding qualified labor. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1ac75f70-036f-40d8-8890-e7f1b01c0820/Small+Business+Optimism+Index+Components.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Small businesses are still optimistic, but concerns may be holding them back from expanding. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d26f1a4-32ec-44a7-b0e1-c05e3bae6aff/5-year+breakeven+inflation+rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 11, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: FRED 5 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-february-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-02-06 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-february-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-02-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/59098526-a337-4f69-87f5-8958764a39e0/Catastrophic+Stop+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop Model level is 72.86%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2514acfe-38b0-4fa5-81a8-4fcffabf9ce5/US+Treasuries.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Rising inflation expectations are a headwind. However, bonds are poised for a reversal should expectations reverse lower. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6be58239-4abe-4e7e-8885-8be2805fb3dc/US+TIPS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Commodities have been trending lower. Bullish for bonds, bearish for TIPS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1979160a-e463-450d-8760-f6c3bb60b10e/US+Mortgage+Backed+Securities.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: High-yield option-adjusted spreads remain narrow, indicating investors do not foresee a major dislocation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3dbb7f34-5d19-4c49-a57d-d9aaa93b274d/US+Floating+Rate+Notes.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Momentum is starting to wane. We will reduce exposure if other technical indicators confirm a new downtrend. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/88038e5b-929a-48ba-bbde-2ee5e230fbd2/US+Investment+Grade.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: A confirmed downtrend in the U.S. dollar would be negative for U.S. IG Corporates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/44d8649f-0689-4096-9e8f-90c5c02c0e67/US+High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Relative weakness in small-cap stocks is still a headwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/48bbeab0-df71-415c-8dfc-f2d267c2447b/International+IG+Corporate+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Indicators using option-adjusted spreads to call International Treasuries are neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/37a9bc22-301e-46ef-b231-ba1e08462980/Emerging+Market+Bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Relative strength in emerging market equities would be bullish for EM bonds. A rise above 0% would flip this indicator positive. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-trump-being-trump-trade-wars monthly 0.5 2025-02-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cad86e2b-b3ab-4083-89b7-0b029fcbd824/day-hagan-tech-talk-02.05.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Trump Being Trump: Trade Wars 2.0 - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d3ec0ccd-2fa1-48c2-a6cf-c6b5be227300/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Trump Being Trump: Trade Wars 2.0 - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. |Within higher troughs and higher peaks (an uptrend), the multi-month short-term lateral “chop fest” continues. Support levels in green and blue. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e5ddddae-e1c0-41a8-ab82-dbfc857f5391/s-and-p-intra-year-declines.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Trump Being Trump: Trade Wars 2.0 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Average Annual Returns and Intra-year Declines. | Stock market selloffs should be expected, especially following the strong gains exhibited by SPX in 2023 and 2024. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-february-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-02-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/59098526-a337-4f69-87f5-8958764a39e0/Catastrophic+Stop+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/20dbd38b-8347-4725-a6b3-9c994d3baf43/Global+PMIs+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remains in expansion territory; however, manufacturing sectors continue to underperform relative to services. According to the OECD’s GDP growth projections, advanced economies are expected to grow at rates of 1.3% in both 2025 and 2026. In contrast, emerging markets are projected to achieve growth rates of 3.2% and 3.3% during the same period. Overall, global GDP is anticipated to increase by 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026. This economic landscape provides a favorable environment for international equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/acf5ab97-44a3-4f2a-b5b4-bba32581b1c3/msci-pacific.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The Pacific ex-Japan region’s earnings yield is relatively high, meaning there may be some valuation-based opportunities ahead. Nonetheless, we need model confirmation that the trend has turned before adding exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/710062ef-7f2b-490c-b905-16dfce8b58b2/Canada+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Investors expect more cuts from the Bank of Canada, but not as many as just a few months ago. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7501f109-0829-459c-8a7a-3932f66d6aae/China+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: High-yield credit spreads are narrowing, indicating that investors are not expecting a significant financial dislocation. This is interesting, given the tariff news over the last week in January. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eeb9c6e9-a287-4506-921d-6a4bcad4b356/France+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: France’s leading economic indicators have reversed and are in a downtrend relative to the rest of the world. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1e9b5b9c-6922-4567-ac7c-282d7d774f15/Germany+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: European bourses continue to be plagued by investor outflows (based on ETF AUM changes). Until this condition reverses, it will be difficult for the indexes to outperform their global peers. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bb9d80b2-8f49-43ad-9009-42042cd32f56/Japan+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Sentiment has reversed from overly pessimistic levels, and optimism is building. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b71995b9-cd89-4466-be6a-de13e2cc4b7c/Switzerland+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: We noted last month that a reversal lower in the U.S. dollar would be bullish for the Eurozone. That occurred and we are now monitoring our indicators to see if the trend is likely to continue. Recall that at the end of December, the euro was near a two-year low and down nearly 6% in 2024 due to differing central bank expectations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8c87244a-eea5-40e1-bb6d-c5c1ee0b496b/UK+Probability+Model+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The U.K. Recession Probability Model indicates a low probability of recession. If the series moves above 50, it would be concerning. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-february-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-02-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f66468b7-1498-41d6-b731-7db5f0d16419/Catastrophic+Stop+2-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ed535f22-2823-44a0-9695-6f1248e60591/global-purchasing-manager-indexes-12-31-2024.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remains in expansion territory; however, manufacturing sectors continue to underperform relative to services. According to the OECD’s GDP growth projections, advanced economies are expected to grow at rates of 1.3% in both 2025 and 2026. In contrast, emerging markets are projected to achieve growth rates of 3.2% and 3.3% during the same period. Overall, global GDP is anticipated to increase by 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026. This economic landscape provides a favorable environment for international equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c4abf006-39a1-40cb-9fd9-b78ac65cb10b/Consumer+Discretionary+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Positive earnings surprises continue to support the consumer discretionary sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0f921913-07c0-4931-a779-86de2742ab6f/Consumer+Staples+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: If the net new highs indicator moves to a buy signal, we will look to increase exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0c406078-2b9e-4f19-af55-f0e152227d5e/Communication+Services+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Signs of price momentum stalling. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/084a3da4-1ecf-49c4-baa1-bf924d4dbf99/Energy+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: A weaker dollar would support U.S. energy exports. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/59b99a98-ec4b-49b5-b111-ebda01a6ef10/Financials+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Credit spreads (OAS) for the Financials sector continued to move higher in January. While low historically, we are watching this development closely. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/39c65016-6f2f-40c9-9dd8-fc7e78b5658c/Health+Care+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Relative strength has turned positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a3098140-1dc2-43c3-b0da-4d7160a773f4/Industrials+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Commodity prices continue to rise. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/60f6a5de-4884-48b8-9bbe-320060fc64f2/Information+technology+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The smoothed percentage of positive earnings revisions is rolling over. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/92be0361-30b0-449a-84be-9b24499b69d7/Materials+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Emerging Market weakness is still a headwind for the Materials sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/317dfa80-4cbc-48e9-8ab0-ad70ae07eaac/Real+Estate+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Weakness in the homebuilders industry is negative for the Real Estate sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/97b2f197-f4f4-46c3-8308-37fc346c7530/Utilities+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: The Utilities sector price momentum shows oversold conditions are still in place. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-february-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-02-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f66468b7-1498-41d6-b731-7db5f0d16419/Catastrophic+Stop+2-4.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model versus the S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0c4ad40c-e65d-4dac-ac99-691f8f28bc5a/CNN+Fear+and+Greed+2-4.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Short-term sentiment is no longer a tailwind and not yet a headwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/73468925-3484-4b9f-b61e-927b69d02d32/US+Trade+in+Goods+with+Canada+and+Mexico.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: U.S. Trade in Goods with Canada and Mexico https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/010e9e7c-a4e8-4617-bade-4e8c42e4f524/Mexico+Forward+PE.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: MSCI Mexico Forward P/E https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/634b6a96-1623-44db-8275-c3a77a2554b3/Canada+Forward+PE.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: MSCI Canada Forward P/E https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1cff92ba-07dd-4139-bf90-154d70a33abd/China+Forward+PE.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: MSCI China Forward P/E https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3c79e3bc-efb8-4581-adfe-2e67631070a3/Consumer+Discretionary+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Positive earnings surprises continue to support the consumer discretionary sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c0bdedb1-e927-4cfc-a58d-8c38691ce9fc/Consumer+Staples+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: If the net new highs indicator moves to a buy signal, we will look to increase exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c69b945b-191d-4408-83c9-f38d589333c0/Communication+Services+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Signs of price momentum stalling. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aa969e11-7939-4926-a76a-1bbf8c785aa6/Energy+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: A weaker dollar would support U.S. energy exports. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4f5be755-def2-492d-b245-abf3a246fb25/Financials+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Credit spreads (OAS) for the Financials sector continued to move higher in January. While low historically, we are watching this development closely. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7795d822-e742-4fc6-bf81-ac45292ce9d4/Health+Care+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Relative strength has turned positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/df778106-2d1b-4aa5-9c21-2d0670c0a02a/Industrials+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Commodity prices continue to rise. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/89f84006-e111-4f12-9bbd-8199e5fdcd2d/Information+technology+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 14: The smoothed percentage of positive earnings revisions is rolling over. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1b441f3d-7156-49f4-b131-10017c8121cd/Materials+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Emerging Market weakness is still a headwind for the Materials sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/51b271ff-80df-41d5-9706-696d198f256e/Real+Estate+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 16: Weakness in the homebuilder industry is negative for the Real Estate sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3ba2d2c7-b7d9-49ed-9e5e-d3b9dc647f99/Utilities+2-1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update February 4, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 17: The Utilities sector price momentum shows oversold conditions are still in place. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-resistance-prevails-again monthly 0.5 2025-02-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1738165513252-3TLICVMOHCV2KTOTLEA8/day-hagan-tech-talk-01.29.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Resistance Prevails Again and Price Volatility Continues - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4550b889-0257-4ca3-8e95-a7828a1e007e/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Resistance Prevails Again and Price Volatility Continues - Make it stand out Figure 1: NYSE Advance-Decline Lines and S&P 500. | Sector rotation (broader participation) could be the answer to remedying this. Until then, it is a conditional warning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a33ae9fd-5b6b-4b0f-8240-1b7243ee5099/indu.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Resistance Prevails Again and Price Volatility Continues - Make it stand out Figure 2: Domestic Equity Market Proxies. | Resistance (red lines) and non-trading support (green lines). Please see last week’s report for short-term support or reach out for an updated chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fab6cbbd-6ce7-4437-b0df-cde93f028503/wtic.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Resistance Prevails Again and Price Volatility Continues - Make it stand out Figure 3: Light Crude Oil – Continuous Contract—weekly data. | Red lines depict resistance (selling pressure) and the upper ends of the range. Green lines depict support (buying interest) and the lower ends of the range. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-january-28-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-01-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/294573d6-95cd-4f68-9de7-5826a137d52a/Catastrophic+Stop+1-28.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 28, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model once again improved over the past week due to expanding market breadth, indicating that the uptrend remains intact. Interestingly, 351 S&P 500 stocks advanced on Monday during the “DeepSeek Selloff.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fb88cadf-1010-462b-be75-e6ab855aee78/Semiconductor+Sub+Industry+Earnings+Revisions.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Earnings estimate revisions were already trending modestly lower (based on the 13-week point change) prior to yesterday’s selloff. Historically (and perhaps surprisingly), semiconductor stocks have performed better when earnings revisions have been weaker, likely due to prices retreating in response to the revisions and ultimately setting up semis for the next rally. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7af4855c-240c-4185-8629-cdb7d8ea56c4/Pecent+of+stocks+above+10+day+MA.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Breadth held up during Monday’s decline. The percentage of stocks above their 10-day MAs has been 70% or higher since January 15th. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eb0d5d1c-7886-421f-a305-1aaaa00be6b1/Daily+dollar+flows+into+sector+ETFs.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: More investors bought tech than sold yesterday. There’s still an appetite for tech stocks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0ef30317-d3c5-4aea-80ab-2ac2f0250545/SP500+Information+Technology+Relative+Strength.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: We remain modestly below the S&P 500 benchmark weighting for the Information Technology sector. When the model moves back above 50%, we will add exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5047a9d2-b076-4bba-9b3e-21b73b18513b/oas-vs-cds-for-investment-grade-debt-01-27-2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Credit spreads continue to portray a calm financial backdrop. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2e39ff2b-40ac-4fcf-a0e9-eb779aed9591/NYSE+5-day+advances+declines.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Again, breadth is better than might be expected after Monday’s declines in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/994a5d0b-03af-4068-bf5a-f586cf557e6d/Fed+funds+futures.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Investors still expecting Fed funds to have a 3-handle in 6- to 12-months. Lower interest rates are needed to support the current multiple. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3bd815d4-26ea-4194-970a-83187c1d156d/Mag+7+.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 28, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The “rest” of the stock market will likely contribute more to earnings as the year progresses. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-back-to-resistance-again monthly 0.5 2025-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fcc6d5c4-5a54-4032-82be-cc57213a585b/day-hagan-tech-talk-01.22.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Back to Resistance Again - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/091ce4af-dff2-4106-a0df-a2266b944b95/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Back to Resistance Again - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | Stocks bounced sharply higher once support was tested and held. How long it takes to fill the rally’s two gaps—and if it happens—will help in determining Wall Street’s ongoing interest in adding additional risk by buying more stocks. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-january-21-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-01-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ccdf80ff-bb40-4900-82e9-fa1905868209/Catastrophic+Stop+1-21.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2025 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model improved over the past week due to expanding market breadth, indicating that the uptrend remains intact. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/793d407a-318e-4703-8e89-de7209e9a961/Sentiment+1-21.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Short-term sentiment indicators are rated neutral. A reversal back above 40% in the indicator below would be bullish, indicating that optimism is seeping back into the markets. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/357c22c2-2a81-4913-ab84-dba519a411ac/AAII+Survey+1-15.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Retail investors are the most bearish they’ve been since November 2023, according to the AAII poll below. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dce5d868-74a1-4477-b3f3-59c882147b77/OBOS+Information+Technology+1-21.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The Information Technology sector is modestly oversold on a short-term basis. A reversal back above the lower SD bracket would be positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a216331e-92b3-485c-b689-07079b139836/OBOS+Materials+1-21.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The Materials sector is reversing from a short-term oversold low. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c2e892e6-0837-4ce1-a5a2-304884086987/Growth+and+Value+Breadth+1-21.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: S&P 500 Growth and Value breadth trends (based on the A/D line with a 21-day smoothing) look similar. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/03fada96-2bed-40c5-bb6e-5129d1edd09f/Hedge+Fund+Sentiment+1-21.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Hedge funds are not as extended as they were, but still at somewhat high levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/09ebfbc5-13ff-48e0-b718-02f07515c5ff/Seasonality+1-21.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The S&P 500 Cycle Composite indicates potential weakness from mid-February until early April. Stay tuned. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a6f9170-b202-4979-8750-30e79e696cc3/Gamma+exposure+1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The market's Gamma Condition is currently positive. Therefore, we expect slightly lower volatility. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7611bb51-5fce-40cc-bc98-63cf57005c6a/Gamma+exposure+2.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 21, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The market's Gamma Condition is currently positive. Therefore, we expect slightly lower volatility. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-the-name-is-bond monthly 0.5 2025-01-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1736956779956-FG5LJVVUB2CSR11G7GPH/day-hagan-tech-talk-01.15.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: “The Name’s Bond” - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/23b86c69-3eb7-45a2-ba7c-1ec4e6e5c66d/ust-30-y.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: “The Name’s Bond” - Make it stand out Figure 1: Domestic Interest Rates - multiple time frames. |Are markets seeing something the Fed isn’t? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1d0aa6f8-f625-4d12-a161-1ea1fdb97f5d/ust-10-y.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: “The Name’s Bond” - Make it stand out Figure 2: 10-Year and 30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (weekly data). | Higher for longer. Though short-term, the next yield move is likely to be a pullback/consolidation period. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8a4b0e2f-6d69-47d2-b2cf-2db2221d9d47/mortgage-30-yr.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: “The Name’s Bond” - Make it stand out Figure 3: 30-Year and 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average. | Unless a breakdown below support occurs (green lines), are things seizing up like the Tin Man? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/383d1fa1-37a9-4dcc-b740-d4802adb7431/dow-industrials-presidential-cycle.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: “The Name’s Bond” - Make it stand out Figure 4: Dow industrials Four-Year Presidential Cycle. | Choppy and difficult periods, but as the year progresses, a stair-step higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/59084773-6411-4ae9-b6f0-1faf45cfc121/nat-gas.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: “The Name’s Bond” - Make it stand out Figure 5: Natural Gas – Continuous Contract with 10-week MA. | Hello! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/39583698-a97f-41b6-8e7a-3ce54db64755/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: “The Name’s Bond” - Make it stand out Figure 6: S&P 500. | Important short-term low/support level—5773. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/df1862f8-f868-4839-b29f-d16a7c7fa867/indu.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: “The Name’s Bond” - Make it stand out Figure 7: Dow Jones Industrial Average. | Critical near-term support has tested and held thus far. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f3aff543-46e7-4dd6-af70-660fb56ef704/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: “The Name’s Bond” - Make it stand out Figure 8: Small Cap proxy ETF. | Support depicted by green and blue lines, resistance by red lines and previous price peaks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bcce3412-8ef2-4c5d-bfee-2e442c1c407f/compq.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: “The Name’s Bond” - Make it stand out Figure 9: NASDAQ Composite. | It feels like NASDAQ has more downside probing before an initial and important support level is tested ~18,500+/-. Also, please note the rising 200-day MA (support) is currently just under 18,000. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-january-14-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-01-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b8b509a7-edc3-4656-ba50-e76b729e16c3/Catastrophic+Stop+Model+1-14.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 14, 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8f90e0e3-4f44-42d9-afa0-781cc272bcc5/Yen+carry+trade.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: If the BoJ decides to hike again, we would expect some market weakness near-term until the new information is absorbed into positioning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8af0d735-13f6-43be-b2ed-3ba40b7860ff/Buyback+blackout+windows.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Buybacks are a source of demand that wanes before every earnings season and then resumes as earnings are released. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ac6f79f7-92f1-4281-878e-8554568d043b/Citi+Economic+Surprise+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Economic data supports a “moderate growth” expectation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ed141607-4d3e-4d61-a981-2e87e0c4653c/Sentiment+CNN+Fear+Greed.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Sentiment is now a near-term tailwind. An increase back above 40 would be bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0d38c600-becf-444b-9ac6-f5fa04a38b28/Overbought+oversold+indicators.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 14, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: OBOS indicators are supportive for the near term. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-january-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-01-08 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-trump-bump-came-and-went monthly 0.5 2025-01-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1736361252434-N8L42Z4EWGNR8QOYLPVW/day-hagan-tech-talk-01.08.2025-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Trump Bump Came and Went - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/705c410c-51ef-4c6f-89b1-9affff02a9be/nyad.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Trump Bump Came and Went - Make it stand out Figure 1: Large Cap Advance-Decline Lines. | Monitor closely as another breakdown would increase the odds of further downside volatility. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6ae7958c-2968-49fb-974e-2a8c5a77d241/nyhl.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Trump Bump Came and Went - Make it stand out Figure 2: NYSE New Highs minus New Lows—Cumulative. | In past instances when this has rolled over, the SPX reacted with “choppy or weak” movements. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/18638449-e206-44a1-9548-9d14ce2e9388/mags.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Trump Bump Came and Went - Make it stand out Figure 3: Roundhill Big Tech ETF (MAGS) with rising 50-day MA. | “Mag 7” proxy. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/54aabc51-1b76-45ba-8751-70cf3acefe4d/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Trump Bump Came and Went - Make it stand out Figure 4: S&P 500. | Support is in green and resistance is in red. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-january-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-01-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/078f3787-717b-4b92-b9a7-24023aeb8e0e/Catastrophic+Stop+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4c3f07ba-3791-456a-a118-dc98d05404ac/US+Treasuries+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Rising inflation expectations are a headwind. However, bonds are poised for a reversal should expectations reverse lower. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/83020c38-472b-45ee-bda5-3406c2bc4425/US+TIPS+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Commodities have been trending lower. Bullish for bonds, bearish for TIPS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1bf3167c-3363-46ff-bf36-83f414246dc7/MBS+Mortgage+Backed+Securities+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: High-yield option-adjusted spreads remain narrow, indicating investors do not foresee a major dislocation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/352a7b0d-1bac-49b5-97e7-c3267193879c/US+Floating+Rate+Notes+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Rates backed up in December; we now expect a reversion from overbought levels. However, we require technical confirmation. If the FLRN 5-day relative MA declines below the 63-day MA, it would be a good indication that rates are likely to head lower. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5b54fb24-8e47-4aec-89dd-bdf3afad43b2/US+IG+Corporates+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Lower bond volatility supports corporate fixed-income prices (lower yields). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4161215a-614b-44d2-abd7-a91e59998d99/US+High+Yield+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Last month, we noted that small-cap equity performance often leads to high-yield fixed-income outperformance. With the December pullback in small caps, this indicator has now shifted to a negative reading. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5771e311-f267-4438-b3b6-38e0d2412da9/International+Corporates+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Increasing equity volatility has historically been positive for investment-grade international bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bdb441b7-8ee0-4e93-a07f-4c8c8213fa45/Emerging+Market+Bonds+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The EM currency basket continues to lose ground against the U.S. dollar. A reversal would be bullish. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-january-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-01-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/27ee15a4-9765-4511-8069-e92efe771724/Catastrophic+Stop+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/adf37578-3325-4319-b13b-f43cc3588665/Global+Purchasing+Managers+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Global Purchasing Manager Index is still in expansion territory. The recent moves higher for both manufacturing and services are encouraging. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6ad9b269-ed6f-46b9-b34c-d70a0d143fe1/Australia+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Looking for a reversal in the Australian Dollar. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4ebab39e-6845-491d-a7b4-b7d1b1f1a719/Canada+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Investors expect more cuts from the Bank of Canada, but not as many as just a few months ago. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7f17329b-6ef1-4a04-af5f-fba3c154d32e/China+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: High-yield credit spreads starting to widen from very low levels are a headwind for EM. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7fc243d5-aaa6-47fd-a8d2-99e4c4fab59e/France+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The French manufacturing base is in a freefall. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1e9b5b9c-6922-4567-ac7c-282d7d774f15/Germany+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: European bourses continue to be plagued by investor outflows (based on ETF AUM changes). Until this condition reverses, it will be difficult for the indexes to outperform their global peers. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bb9d80b2-8f49-43ad-9009-42042cd32f56/Japan+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Sentiment has reversed from overly pessimistic levels, and optimism is building. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/642cf27e-c1a4-4ef3-be21-a8a470aba91a/Switzerland+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: A reversal in the U.S. dollar would be very bullish for the Euro, British Pound, and Swiss Franc, especially with them at such oversold levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a8e38a22-140e-4eb9-8d0c-b51da10afab9/UK+Recession+Probability+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The U.K. Recession Probability Model indicates a low probability of recession. If the series moves above 30, it would be concerning. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-january-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-01-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ad7de4e2-9438-4d27-97b7-cadfb304064c/Catastrophic+Stop+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9730fddb-c07f-4760-8d88-00ec3cdf551f/Global+Purchasing+Managers+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Global Purchasing Manager Index is still in expansion territory. The recent moves higher for both manufacturing and services are encouraging. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6b127e84-a6e0-4e40-afa7-974851750a28/Consumer+Discretionary+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Higher interest rates are a headwind for Consumer Discretionary stocks. A reversal would be positive for the sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8e1c70d8-17f7-4206-8585-87d6b559187c/Consumer+Staples+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Breadth for the Consumer Staples sector remains negative. If the 50-day relative breadth rises above the lower bracket, it would signal that investors are once again favoring defensive characteristics. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2acd87de-22df-4f93-abf0-3f7cca217588/Communication+Services.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The Communications Services sector has reversed from oversold levels, showing an improving technical backdrop. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/75801a33-31c4-43ea-9a03-0bce29624e54/Energy+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The Energy sector’s sentiment measure continues to illustrate overly pessimistic levels. A reversal higher, confirmed by our technical indicators, would be bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6122c605-c7f2-4395-9a58-90eb1df0dfbd/Financials+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Credit spreads (OAS) for the Financials sector have ticked higher, indicating investors’ trepidation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2adf0adb-7351-438d-b225-1655c2b5a665/Health+Care+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: A decisive reversal confirmed by our array of technical indicators would allow us to increase exposure further. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a1112066-09e7-457e-8ee8-c08b3b395318/Industrials+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Rising commodity prices often signal improving demand for cyclical companies. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/04fe2ee6-09d1-479d-8834-2f0c2275be8c/Information+Technology+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Net new highs on a 50-day basis are declining, illustrating fewer stocks participating in the upside. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/db98ec2a-36a9-4ddf-9cff-faebedef111b/Materials+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The materials component continues to trend lower within the U.S. Industrial Production report. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7b443dbc-7175-46ab-9fd3-85e5c15a5291/Real+Estate+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Relative price trends are negative for the Real Estate sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fae0a4cf-5604-47c9-8300-028e5ca828d7/Utilities+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 13: The Utilities sector price momentum shows oversold conditions in place. A rise above the lower bracket would be positive. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-january-7-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-01-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0f5955b0-0eb3-473e-866a-e53a35ae7a5a/Catastrophic+Stop+1-7.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2025 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/41c5b4c1-c143-4cee-9a9f-7f81769d1d95/Consumer+Discretionary+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Higher interest rates are a headwind for Consumer Discretionary stocks. A reversal would be positive for the sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9cb85674-b986-4cac-9f2e-8f93794afe86/Consumer+Staples+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Breadth for the Consumer Staples sector remains negative. If the 50-day relative breadth rises above the lower bracket, it would signal that investors are once again favoring defensive characteristics. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2a71058f-767e-4a6b-bfa5-ed22c0c9e5b2/Communication+Services.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The Communications Services sector has reversed from oversold levels, showing an improving technical backdrop. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c3a5c8bb-41f4-4137-bb70-95c41f54a857/Energy+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The Energy sector’s sentiment measure continues to illustrate overly pessimistic levels. A reversal higher, confirmed by our technical indicators, would be bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6c2da080-b459-4b7d-bd34-14b46936563b/Financials+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Credit spreads (OAS) for the Financials sector have ticked higher, indicating investors’ trepidation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dc6dac2c-bbf9-43c5-9f62-87083cefc796/Health+Care+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 7: A decisive reversal confirmed by our array of technical indicators would allow us to increase exposure further. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/59407e87-1d38-4802-84e1-424f2470493a/Industrials+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Rising commodity prices often signal improving demand for cyclical companies. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b2e742c4-37ab-4035-8713-f1228b8c4c80/Information+Technology+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Net new highs on a 50-day basis are declining, illustrating fewer stocks participating in the upside. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fc18d9c3-9cb8-4cf7-96e9-6df36299b9fc/Materials+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The materials component continues to trend lower within the U.S. Industrial Production report. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0db47614-243b-4a08-8fbc-89e3114bbe28/Real+Estate+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Relative price trends are negative for the Real Estate sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d6dd0ce0-4cee-4466-b2b4-e9b81ce4b2c2/Utilities+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update January 7, 2025 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Utilities sector price momentum shows oversold conditions in place. A rise above the lower bracket would be positive. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-december-31-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-12-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f375f23a-d0c5-4f30-8670-f3a00d11c71d/Catastrophic+Stop+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2024 Figure 1: S&P 500 vs. Catastrophic Stop model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/06a5c4fd-27f3-430c-9576-c16c50a7d5e1/Regime+table+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: U.S. equities enjoyed a “Growth Rising, Inflation Neutral” backdrop in 2024. For 2025, we expect growth to moderate and inflation to remain neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a7bc84ca-58b9-41a4-b456-ceac2663df7e/Economic+Timing+Model+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Economic growth in the U.S. is supportive of equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a339eb1a-c2fb-4c2a-bc28-8deab5149038/Inflation+Timing+Model+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Inflation pressures are rated neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/48530eae-67f3-4278-863d-99f3fbb2b3e7/SP500+Earnings+model+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Earnings are expected to increase by double-digits in 2025. If that’s the case, 2025 should be another up year (as long as interest rates behave). We will closely monitor the tariff and weak manufacturing activity issues, as both could be problematic. Nonetheless, so far, investors are looking past those potential disruptions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0c13119b-04a1-4df6-a2ed-fa9b4b88d89c/SP500+Earnings+growth+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Calendar year 2025 earnings growth expectations by sector (as of 12-20-2024). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4d7874c2-c7d6-435f-9489-2637e3a10c9d/Never+mind+the+tariffs.jpg Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: If this is the case, tariffs are unlikely to be the culprit behind an extended selloff. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/28b92872-a52d-463f-9ffc-3a8b987c4e6d/CNN+Fear+and+Greed+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Sentiment is no longer a headwind, but we must see a reversal before this indicator turns positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c7fb40fe-82eb-4c0b-a0fc-5e1e5e5992a8/First+rate+cuts+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: We also remain cognizant that the Fed and most global central banks are past the point of peak hawkishness, and many are in easing modes. Specific to the U.S., past slow easing cycles have typically gained 24.42% (on average) during Year 1 and another 6.06% during Year 2. Since the September 18th close, the S&P 500 is up just 4.8%, leaving plenty of room for upside based on this one view. By the way, it feels like it's been a lot longer than 3 ½ months since the first rate cut! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/909248a0-0f6e-4426-8f87-9805b74b597b/2025+Cycle+Composite+12-31.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 31, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2025. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-december-23-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-12-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/985ae034-b7c1-4f95-b37e-7bed79f91c13/Catastrophic+Stop+12-23.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 23, 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0c856900-2deb-4bb3-83f9-9c10700c9aee/10+Year+Treasury+around+First+Fed+Rate+Cuts+12-23.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Rates continuing to rise after First Fed Rate Cuts have usually done so either in response to inflation surges or tighter monetary policies. We do not currently view either as a major problem at this juncture, with inflation pressures moderating and monetary policy less restrictive (the Fed is past peak hawkishness.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ad7b606c-832c-4745-a81f-4dc4b7e8fef0/ValueLine+Geometric+Index+12-23.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The backup in rates has been significant but so far contained. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ba86d808-cc4d-4a07-94ac-b9b477670a8a/10-year+Treasury+Notes+Over+or+Undervalued+12-23.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Fair (Normal) Value for the U.S. 10-year is calculated to be 4.15%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7a0aa8d4-2fa3-4ef5-a319-c015a31bc639/OAS+12-23.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Credit spreads (OAS) are still well below longer-term averages. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9c9d2ab6-6156-463c-80aa-fa1f8cd030e9/US+High+Yield+Sector+Spreads+12-23.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: U.S. Sector OAS are not showing signs that a significant financial dislocation is expected https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5f820df8-f972-4678-bdc2-e8004143a0e4/Fed+Funds+Futures+Yield+Curve+12-23.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Investors are no longer overly optimistic that a significant number of rate cuts are coming down the pike. This is a net positive for stocks and bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a2354917-b612-4fac-b171-3bf2305e33df/Cycle+Composite+2024+12-23.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2024 was directionally on point but missed the dips https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ba96d241-2d13-4123-8f1d-eba1d80db746/Cycle+Composite+2025.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Here’s the Cycle Composite for 2025. If wishes were nickels! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/da340615-5f0b-4b52-a7a3-2ddc777ae3a7/Daily+Sentiment+Composite+12-23.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Short-term sentiment is at better levels to support a Santa Claus rally https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-internatl-measuring-tool-repositioning monthly 0.5 2025-01-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1734536036127-TXCO1EBBMH50SD5GF4KX/day-hagan-tech-talk-12.18.2024-1200x675px-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Internal Measuring Tool Repositioning - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aca92fe2-9e51-4ef1-ba45-b39f55cae7a5/nyad.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Internal Measuring Tool Repositioning - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 (SPX), NYSE A/D Line and SPX A/D Line. | A/D Lines have negatively diverged since October, yet the SPX has remained steady. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/14332ac8-f1d1-46d3-8a2d-321dd6fce892/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Internal Measuring Tool Repositioning - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with rising 21-day MA. | Support is in green and blue, and resistance is in red. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/32ab2592-503d-4e36-aa93-c5a445e7659e/indu.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Internal Measuring Tool Repositioning - Make it stand out Figure 3: Dow Jones Industrial Average. | A successful test of the lower channel line (green support line) or a higher trough (see mid-November) would set the stage for a bounce/rally. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/31ae53fb-97bd-4b46-8daf-faafe9e23b59/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Internal Measuring Tool Repositioning - Make it stand out Figure 4: Small Cap proxy with rising 21-day MA. | Between $227.5(ish) and $225(ish) is critical support. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8062ab44-e789-4651-96f1-58abb5f90ae3/s-and-p-500-index-around-first-rate-cuts.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Internal Measuring Tool Repositioning - Make it stand out Figure 5: History shows that slower rate cut cycles are bullish over the first year. We are about three months into this cycle (the first cut was on 9-18-2024). https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-december-17-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-12-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0e598a9b-e963-4b67-96fb-a60d90b8764e/Catastrophic+Stop+12-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 17, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model vs. the S&P 500 Total Return Index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2865bbd7-f86d-4932-9c22-1f82b40538a6/Daily+Sentiment+Composite+12-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment has reversed from Excessive Optimism levels to Neutral. A drop below 40 followed by a reversal higher would be a good setup for the next rally. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a472bfcb-56f8-4f27-8b86-9df9d9760b73/SP500+forward+vs+trailing+PE+12-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: High valuations = higher risk of disappointment. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/98d143c4-d342-4a1f-9582-da77315aa9e2/Info+Tech+Peak+and+Trough+Valuations+12-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Peak and Trough Valuations for the Information Technology Sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0ccd059c-f816-46dc-8a27-25ec2d15aa28/Consumer+Staples+Peak+and+Trough+Valuations+12-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Consumer Staples Sector’s Peak and Trough Valuations. Even defensive areas of the market aren’t immune to multiple contraction. Although, with a P/E of 29.9x, it’s a bit of a stretch to say that this is a defensive sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c1a9369a-5edc-4f0d-8969-329d79f0ba87/Utilities+Peak+and+Trough+Valuations+12-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The Utilities Sector’s Peak and Trough Valuations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2c1d8bef-8b53-49cc-8c83-81e7611fe7ad/Percentage+of+stocks+outperforming+the+SP500.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Only 29.46% of stocks are outperforming the S&P 500. This is not particularly healthy. But to be fair, 2023 and 2024 have shown strong index performance. (So did 1998 and 1999…) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2cf0652e-ee21-47f1-8b23-eb1c17e24d80/SP500+Stock+and+Breadth+Indicators+12-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Divergences starting to appear. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7dbf49f2-8558-4396-bb52-0b89db1ea3cc/Commodity+Breadth+12-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Commodity prices don’t reflect a new inflationary surge. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2db5b3b4-6e28-4c7c-85b4-c7d34232ef89/Inflation+Timing+Model+12-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The Inflation Timing Model is now neutral. We’re monitoring this closely. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-close-enough-to-government-work monthly 0.5 2024-12-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/49488911-f41f-4716-913c-015bbed9f919/day-hagan-tech-talk-12.11.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Close Enough for Government Work - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c465f8bb-af27-4029-afc9-f332e8d3a49d/spxew.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Close Enough for Government Work - Make it stand out Figure 1: Mag 7 Proxy (top frame) and S&P 500 Equal Weight (SPXEW—bottom frame). | It will be a problem if SPXEW doesn’t bounce off support (green line), or another lower peak occurs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dd0de85c-1eac-4593-8754-dfc0b088d76f/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Close Enough for Government Work - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with Rising 21-day MA – 6-month chart. |Trend remains intact. Please note the verbiage inside the chart. Support in green and blue, resistance in red. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e2f42227-3ad2-40b2-b93c-a557a4275981/wtic.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Close Enough for Government Work - Make it stand out Figure 3: Crude Oil with Momentum (MACD) – weekly data. | If support in the middle-to-low $60s fails to hold (green line and price labels), “Katy, bar the door.” https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-december-11-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-12-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e5682ea8-2037-400c-833f-3a257fec9dbe/Catastrophic+Stop+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model vs. the S&P 500 Total Return Index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a1fe9138-d690-4a95-9e43-d0194e2a9ef3/ACWI+Breadth+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Some signs of breadth improvement. Often occurs during year-end rallies. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d0426451-539d-4726-a0e8-12a667f6e6b4/Daily+Sentiment+Composite+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Sentiment is overly optimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/41a490c0-6817-4e8a-9c94-2bb51c9f816d/2024+Cylcle+Composite+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Positive year-end seasonality is still in play. Somewhat of a counter-balance to the excessive optimism. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b10ccaf3-d3b9-47cf-8ecb-3087068bb2e2/Supply+and+Demand+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Based on volume-adjusted demand, buyers are in control. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e0432823-18e2-4565-9d24-7675b55a726a/Global+Recession+Probability+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Global economic activity is still rated as positive. The model below further supports this view. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/327f8bb6-3a67-4459-a736-8ae711581b59/Economic+Timing+Model+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: U.S. economic growth is OK. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9ebba64c-d397-4306-bd55-12034a96beb0/Continuous+Commodity+Index+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: We’re keeping a close eye on our inflation indicators, with many starting to show signs of budding inflationary pressures. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8e9a7417-e897-4619-821d-40e9cd347d57/Commodity+Breadth+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Commodity breadth shows that 10 of 19 commodities are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages and have rising 200-day moving averages. Historically, this has been inflationary. But notice that the indicators are both hovering around the 50% threshold. Given the indicator evidence, we remain neutral on inflation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7fc4f99c-c5d8-4d54-8ec2-98c692cd162d/Positive+Earnings+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: So far, so good. However, trees don’t grow to the sky. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e61aa5ca-0c86-4537-b6f9-59a10f8078ef/Earnings+Model+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: S&P 500 GAAP Earnings model is neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/230686e6-b788-4cfb-b4bd-748687b5cb03/Industrial+Production+Table.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The diverse array of indicators within the earnings model covers many financial market influences. It’s all about the weight of the evidence. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ddda7f37-31c5-4ec7-9312-4fee7797abf1/Thrust+Indicators+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: A series of breadth thrusts would help provide an “all-clear” signal for at least the next year. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/626e098d-3d69-49a6-b002-fda7655cbd09/Moody%27s+Baa+Bond+Yield+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 13: With inflationary pressures on our radar, we are monitoring several fixed-income relationships to see if bond investors are potentially getting nervous. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9908e90d-4ae6-4135-be08-bb5d36b5d8e0/Sp500+around+first+fed+rate+cuts+12-10.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 14: History shows that slower rate cut cycles are bullish over the first year. We are currently about three months into this cycle (first cut was on 9-18-2024). https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-into-year-end monthly 0.5 2024-12-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1733325876657-4LMNJQY9NO22RZUT3UPS/day-hagan-tech-talk-12.04.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Into Year-End - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/570682db-5ebc-447b-93d4-32f3da369780/s-and-p-500-index-returns.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Into Year-End - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 Index December Returns When Up Over 20% Through November. | Bouts of volatility aside, this is bullish through the end of 2024. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1efa9a6d-abe6-4d00-9e59-a61643f607c8/%24-spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Into Year-End - Make it stand out Figure 2: Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500. | Please refer to the verbiage inside the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cd51acbf-d720-48ea-a74d-662ad9052e2b/sox.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Into Year-End - Make it stand out Figure 3: Semiconductor Index. | Before discerning the next significant directional move, the trend remains neutral until a break occurs, either up or down. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a38dc7e6-c127-4664-a6e2-a58aec0c1994/kweb.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Into Year-End - Make it stand out Figure 4: China – Technology proxy. | Have the weak holders capitulated? Price labels (green line) depict initial support. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-december-3-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-12-03 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-december-3-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-12-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/08aa49f0-d7a2-42c6-89bf-23ff8d05deb7/Catastrophic+Stop+12-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 3, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model is moving toward neutral from bullish levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f65444b6-a4c3-45fd-8ec0-2553eb6f75c6/Percent+of+stocks+above+200-day+moving+averages+12-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Percent of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving averages. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a76d2557-9776-46ec-90e7-ea72c7889557/Advancing+vs+Declining+Volume+12-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Advancing volume picking up in defensive and cyclical sectors. We added slightly to these positions with this month's rebalance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/316e796e-bf18-44e3-b89f-27dd57deb0fc/Information+Technology+Advance+Decline+12-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Declining volume within the Information Technology sector has increased over the past 10 days, reversing the 21- and 50-day volume trends. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8c1f20f0-b6ae-45f9-bdad-3ab6bde4df85/Consumer+Staples+Advancing+vs+Declining+Volume+12-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Advancing volume within the Consumer Staples sector has increased over the past 10 days, reversing the 21- and 50-day negative volume trends. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9dcdd9fa-7e0e-4bb7-92f4-d6911007c193/Health+Care+Advancing+vs+Declining+Volume+12-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Advancing volume within the Health Care sector has increased over the past 10 days, reversing the 21- and 50-day negative volume trends. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3ce90c93-573c-46c7-b0ee-f561a7eb1cec/SHUT+Index+12-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The SHUT’s defensive sectors have yet to break out. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1a09b1a7-a095-4e82-a7c3-d03035f2317e/NDR+Daily+Sentiment+12-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update December 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Sentiment is a headwind, but it is only a market condition. The technical indicators within the Catastrophic Stop model are still positive, and that’s what provides the triggers for a rebalance. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-december-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-12-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/317fba49-c485-4f72-a88e-69963e9a9930/Catastrophic+Stop+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9a7ba209-62b8-4009-a36b-1e8b379fccf4/Global+Purchasing+Managers+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Global Purchasing Manager Index is still in expansion territory. The recent moves higher for both manufacturing and services are encouraging. It would be concerning if the Services PMI (light blue) dropped below 50, joining the weak manufacturing PMI reading. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6c9ae310-eb0c-4a87-ab14-8580f3fd59d6/Consumer+Discretionary+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The relative forward price/earnings ratio remains near the lower end of the 10-year range. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3748e040-4371-4413-a7dc-e3baa40bc6a9/Consumer+Staples+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The sector is oversold but needs to reverse back above the lower bracket before we would consider adding exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6542a284-8b8c-481b-b151-a4a964895b90/Communication+Services+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Better sales growth trends are starting to appear. A rise above the 156-week trendline would be bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/28792ae2-4917-4f4b-9c51-7137d82ce028/Energy+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The Energy sector’s sentiment measure has reversed ever-so-slightly from overly pessimistic levels. If this is confirmed by our technical indicators, we would seek to add exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4afd0593-18d4-45b3-95ae-2b5a830e0c5b/Financials+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Financial sector option-adjusted spreads have narrowed, indicating that investors currently don’t envision a major market disruption. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/55d3be12-ca4c-4497-a94a-38bed55359f0/Healthcare+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: A decisive reversal confirmed by our array of technical indicators would allow us to increase exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/176598e4-7147-4801-bad5-7bf5937f99ac/Industrials+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Relative price momentum has reversed back to a buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/95ad0271-567c-48a0-81fe-49972552eedf/Information+Technology+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Longer-term overbought/oversold indicators are rolling over from overbought, generating sell signals. If the external composite turns bearish, we’ll move to an underweight allocation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ae65d19c-8fe1-4586-b238-ee0967323f3e/Materials+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Emerging Market strength has historically been bullish for the Materials sector. Emerging Markets, however, have rolled over. If our technical indicators begin to show signs of renewed strength, we will reallocate accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fd4e3b88-8243-4f3d-b6b1-250158923f34/Real+Estate+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Decisive improvement in breadth would likely lead to an upgrade. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d8591a9-d574-437e-9eca-f8dd272e0a54/Utilities+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Rising interest rates are negative for the debt-laden utility sector. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-december-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-12-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a424cd75-62d2-4502-bca1-2a9d8e38d87a/Catastrophic+Stop+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/32fd8a35-bc5a-4d63-9ed9-e10c43107a39/Long+Term+Treasury+Bonds+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Bonds have typically done well during periods of strong economic growth and low inflation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ba99173a-05f6-435b-935f-59d6745bd384/TIPS+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Commodities have been trending lower. Bullish for bonds, bearish for TIPS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3937ba12-f44c-43e4-bfd3-985707b4dd9f/Mortgage+Backed+Securities+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: High-yield option-adjusted spreads are narrow, creating competition for higher-quality sectors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f395f008-89db-4498-bda4-98bd22c6f7d8/US+Floating+Rate+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Market volatility has subsided, which has been a headwind for Floating Rate Notes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cb90ecc8-65c2-4ced-b79d-ebc0acfe21a3/US+Investment+Grade+Corporate+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Credit Default Swap values have reversed and are decreasing, indicating that investors are becoming more positive about the investment-grade corporate sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fc462906-eabb-4bc0-9749-ce130e67ac88/US+High+Yield+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Small-cap equity performance often leads to high-yield fixed-income outperformance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4fc403ce-d693-4bae-9e73-0624fba6c2d6/International+Treasury+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The composite model’s relative strength indicator remains on a buy signal for International Treasuries. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f6c5c865-56fd-4879-aca0-f31cc80e4562/Emerging+Market+Bonds+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The EM currency basket continues to lose ground against the U.S. dollar. A reversal would be bullish. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-december-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-12-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9ec39227-6a96-409d-aa16-19cfe187e332/Catastrophic+Stop+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6d525776-4ff5-4265-ae8a-2320abc7eed2/Global+Purchasing+Managers+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Global Purchasing Manager Index is still in expansion territory. The recent moves higher for both manufacturing and services are encouraging. It would be concerning if the Services PMI (light blue) dropped below 50, joining the weak manufacturing PMI reading. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c7f49d6e-e4f1-46e1-841f-4e6acadd0050/Australia+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Australia’s Price/Cash Flow multiple is nearing the high end of its 55-year range. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d64b90fb-02af-450a-adc4-28c2b92a36cb/Canada+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Canada’s Composite of Leading Economic Indicators continues to evidence positive relative strength vs. the rest of the world. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b6bb2253-560d-4c72-a079-e3f95ece0509/China+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The one-year forward earnings growth estimate for China is +10.1%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f7067b06-5708-4758-bc30-66d6f1c5a04c/France+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Investors continue to sell. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/348be849-3df2-4e49-a8d4-6cdb326b73b8/Germany+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Since 2022, the percentage of positive earnings revisions for Germany is showing a series of lower highs. Just 69.1% of companies are receiving positive earnings revisions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d0e30dc7-a7d9-4f5a-a25a-a201bc150f6c/Japan+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Short-term sentiment for Japan illustrates continuing pessimism. Until the condition reaches an extreme and reverses, it will remain on a sell signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d513c9f6-e0d3-4d67-a6b1-954b9b249003/Switzerland+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The level of positive earnings revisions is declining. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4a0195c3-f365-46ae-a4a5-beed0ccf356d/UK+12-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Shorter-term sentiment measures are neutral. A move below the lower bracket followed by a reversal back above would be bullish. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-bullish-year-end monthly 0.5 2024-12-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1732717509505-4I4TTQK76L92CNTTJZR2/day-hagan-tech-talk-11.27.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Bullish into Year-End with Bouts of Profit Taking - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/23089b01-5393-49d4-9f31-ff4c8225f2f7/djia.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Bullish into Year-End with Bouts of Profit Taking - Make it stand out Figure 1: Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500. | Short-term resistance is still in place. When coupled with high levels of “Excessive Optimism” (illustrated by NDR’s Daily Trading Sentiment Composite), bouts of profit-taking shouldn’t be surprising. Please mindthe gaps. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8e68a580-5f40-4d55-a2f9-30a1bad61fc0/dow-industrials.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Bullish into Year-End with Bouts of Profit Taking - Make it stand out Figure 2: Dow Industrials Four-Year Presidential Cycle. |This suggests a choppy start to 2025 and weakness in the latter part of the first Presidential year into the second year—something we have not heard Wall Street discuss. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/af12c478-8233-465d-b5d1-df2760ddb21d/bitcoin.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Bullish into Year-End with Bouts of Profit Taking - Make it stand out Figure 3: Bitcoin – Four Year Seasonal. | If interested in a price chart, please reach out. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/57339bb0-13c6-413d-8c0a-274eff248ac9/mstr.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Bullish into Year-End with Bouts of Profit Taking - Make it stand out Figure 4: MicroStrategy – Fifteen Year Seasonal. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-november-26-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-11-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/64741df6-19e6-4f5f-a5b3-a4b8771a93ad/Catastrophic+Stop+model+11-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 26, 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/79fe7ab4-e2dd-4c04-ac64-64f7e83dc86c/High+Yield+and+Emerging+Market+Bond+Breadth+11-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 26, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Improving bond breadth has historically been constructive for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/48380c52-d3e8-4a3f-9d48-3de18c362ff9/OAS+11-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 26, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: OAS spreads narrowing is also constructive for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d5919dfd-6087-414a-8cbb-5247dfa60195/Moodys+AAA+Bond+Yields+11-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 26, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The interest rate backdrop continues to support equities, but we’re monitoring several indicators for signs that they have passed peak bullishness. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f97d028f-99ac-4314-9b12-e930713cb406/10+year+Treasury+Yield+OverUnder+valued+11-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 26, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Based on measures of inflation, term premium, international rates, and economic activity, the 10-year Treasury yield fair value is 4.13% -- slightly below current levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/06ccf33e-63f8-437a-8850-e236f6acb080/SP500+Earnings+growth+11-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 26, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Financials are expected to contribute the lion’s share of earnings growth in Q4 (+38.9%). The sector is currently rated overweight. The Energy sector remains under pressure and is currently rated neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fbf73f38-3f13-48e8-ade2-f7cc0833347d/Positive+Earnings+Surprises+11-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 26, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: With 91.75% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q3 earnings, we note that the percentage of positive earnings surprises is 76.1%, down from the high-70s/low-80s for the previous six quarters. A decline below 70% would be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4ac26aa4-202f-4bed-ac8b-e7e291e95c9d/Information+Technology+Earnings+Revision+Breadth+11-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 26, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Several of our sector models include measures of earnings revisions. For example, the information technology sector's earnings revision breadth continues to support the sector. A reversal of the smoothed series (in the middle clip) below the top bracket would shift the indicator to a sell signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7b161562-05a2-4944-b40e-efa5f173b186/Bullish+Factors+11-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 26, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Bullish Factors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/34835393-9149-4e2e-a5f7-95eaf1237ab7/Bearish+Factors+11-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 26, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Bearish Factors. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-near-term-conditions-being-felt monthly 0.5 2024-11-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1732214130128-VLSWPG5TM0MK1PZEWSQ6/day-hagan-tech-talk-11.21.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Near-Term Conditions Being Felt - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/957183b2-1005-4a00-8293-532c00934972/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Near-Term Conditions Being Felt - Make it stand out Figure 1: NYSE Advance-Decline Line (A/D Line), S&P 500 A/D Line, and S&P 500. | A healthy market usually lifts all/most boats. Recently, like the boats in FL following the two recent hurricanes, many have sunk. Resistance is highlighted in red; support is in green. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5ceb0216-a763-439d-9c21-3031147b4a91/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Near-Term Conditions Being Felt - Make it stand out Figure 2: Small Cap Proxy. | Needs to hold support and needs to hold it now! A decisive violation below support, in green, would be especially discouraging and bearish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/01ef673a-9502-4a06-89fe-65c3630973e6/macd.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Near-Term Conditions Being Felt - Make it stand out Figure 3: Mid-Cap Index with 40-week MA and A/D Line (weekly data). | Very few on Wall Street are discussing this bullish chart configuration. Will they come around? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/380968f2-545b-4f06-9333-b2f87c756f01/gld.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Near-Term Conditions Being Felt - Make it stand out Figure 4: Gold Proxies. | “Gold optimism (has been) relieved within an uptrend,” per NDR. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d905af79-ed5b-487d-9402-3cbd0b3c8ea7/dj-us-aluminum-index.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Near-Term Conditions Being Felt - Make it stand out Figure 5: Aluminum Index. | An interesting Bearish-to-Bullish chart configuration. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-november-19-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-11-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/81cead7a-4a58-47f5-8c0c-03e673b6f973/Catastrophic+Stop+11-19.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 19, 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/97bd09d9-32ff-4228-a45a-8cde245daff7/ACWI+Breadth+11-19.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 19, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The ACWI breadth factor evaluates global equity participation https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8e46b649-233c-48be-9351-6b355d041754/High+Yield+and+Emerging+Market+Breadth+11-19.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 19, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The High Yield and Emerging Market bond breadth factor provides a look into the fixed-income markets and how well they are functioning https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ebb194d9-b6e2-41ad-9aad-29206126fb06/OAS+11-19.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 19, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Credit spreads have ticked higher as the equity market consolidates but remain near the lower end of their 5-year ranges. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/905b0258-e681-434b-90ff-ffd654c580d5/NDR+Daily+Sentiment+11-9.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 19, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Sentiment is still elevated, so we expect more backing and filling. However, our models do not yet suggest an outsized downturn is imminent. Nonetheless, we'll turn defensive if our models shift to negative readings. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/81de09ae-50e7-42c3-8894-1f674d911c12/Crisis+Events+11-19.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 19, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: DJIA performance following crisis events. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/02923770-6b62-408c-bdcb-1772a35e8c90/Consumer+Discretionary+11-19.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 19, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Though there are signs that lower-income consumers are struggling, the overall message from the Consumer Credit Conditions Index is that the availability of money is bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/72bb58fb-8431-48b1-9db3-220adff99ee0/Financials+Citi+Economic+Surprise+11-19.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 19, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The G10 Economic Surprise Index has turned positive, indicating that investors are potentially underestimating the current levels of economic activity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fa3430e7-38c7-46d2-938d-09348ccd33ac/St+Louis+Financial+Stress+11-19.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 19, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: While U.S. economic reports have been coming in better than expected, the St. Louis Financial Stress Index indicates “Low Financial Stress.” This, too, has typically been bullish for equities and economic activity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/119ebfda-19c8-4df7-8b15-d27253ca1b15/russell-2000-1000-ratio.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 19, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Small caps have yet to break out decisively. Our models are neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/295dbc3c-78da-4076-93fb-d80c28612a71/Overbought+Oversold+Indicators+11-19.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 19, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: A little more work still needs to be done before the short-term overbought conditions are worked off. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-november-11-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-11-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b0d3b74e-0008-493f-9ebe-0968bede1d24/Catastrophic+Stop+11-11.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 11, 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/08576860-2241-4b40-aa2e-752de6ca55ff/NDR+Daily+Sentiment+11-11.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Shorter-term sentiment measures, on average, are back to Excessive Optimism levels. This is a near-term headwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e855d9cf-9785-4525-a972-116bc84ddbf6/High+Yield+and+Emerging+Market+Breadth+11-11.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The better breadth within the high yield and emerging market bond markets indicates “risk-on.” A positive underpinning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/007e190d-c0bd-4773-9499-dc049641af00/ACWI+Breadth+11-11.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Global equity breadth is also recovering. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dd581160-9bce-4775-9e37-98ab09bc25db/Seasonality+2024+11-11.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: For 2024, the S&P 500 is generally following the Cycle Composite. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9407b7de-4311-4818-8cf6-442846105d0e/Cycle+Composite+2008+11-11.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: 2008 was a different story. The moral of the story is that this is why we focus on the weight of the evidence—not every indicator works all the time. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/17e9cf9c-6715-41f3-b4fc-22f2e12e9ee0/Potential+Policy+shifts+Part+1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/28da434c-120d-4d33-a600-ece9797ddccf/Potential+Policy+shifts+Part+2.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d8ff1019-cb7a-4ae1-9a49-2f66d11b16da/2016+vs+2024+SP500.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a919d140-b772-421d-a56a-403d320dcbea/2016+vs+2024+Bond+Yields.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/14fdcd2c-02a5-4387-ab2b-e79bb98d17f3/2016+vs+2024+2+10+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/590dc898-a0b0-463c-a64a-4610779fff7c/2015+vs+2024+Gold.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 11, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-three-peat monthly 0.5 2024-11-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1731336257364-PQ4QEMOEB02BOOTUG07M/day-hagan-tech-talk-11.07.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Three-Peat - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fd58e42b-42a5-40a2-807e-cb5c7dce4309/stock-market-performance.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Three-Peat - Make it stand out Figure 1: Election Day to Year-End When Incumbent Democrats Lost Presidential Election. | Based on this table, the odds favor more upside into year-end, but expect volatility in both directions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/307da124-78e3-4e65-9d1b-4f677ef4c5a7/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Three-Peat - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500. | While I prefer the 11/6 topside gap not be filled, support levels are shown in green. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-the-news monthly 0.5 2024-11-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/867c2f72-6b4a-4093-9182-1c382fef5ece/day-hagan-tech-talk-11.07.2024-1200x675px-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The News - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/24fb3fbe-b213-4881-ba65-968478b70584/mid.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The News - Make it stand out Figure 1: Mid-Cap, Small-Cap, and DJ Transportation – weekly data. | Big base breakouts are more telling (bullish) than not. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/68006dba-93db-4e7e-9eec-98a82ec5b13a/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The News - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500. | Important tactical support 5700 to 5670+/-; more structural support 5400. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a395bb78-be06-4605-80fd-cf1ac4b2c15b/ust10y.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The News - Make it stand out Figure 3: 10-Year U.S. Treasury PRICE and YIELD. | Some say a chart is worth a thousand words. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d7827d1-c91c-4042-a48e-35a0255e7890/ust30y.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The News - Make it stand out Figure 4: 30-Year U.S. Treasury PRICE and YIELD. | Some say a chart is worth a thousand words. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-november-5-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-11-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/46584179-834d-4cd3-87eb-a03bc02c929a/Catastrophic+Stop+11-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/25f94108-6d0c-41dc-b99d-a5492f4ab991/DJIA+vs+Presidential+and+Congressional+Combinations+11-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The range of outcomes for different Presidential and Congressional Combinations is wide. Not a useful investment tool on its own, in our view. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0a7226d3-c9d8-402f-ab3f-e907e052171b/Tax+Policy+Trial+Balloons+11-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Higher taxes = stock market decline. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ed74a88a-8972-41a2-9e92-a77a5e14dd97/Monetary-and-Fiscal-Policy-11-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Even though stimulus deteriorates in the first Presidential year, equities have tended to drift higher. Bodes well for 2025. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e513dc1f-6051-4257-9386-4cb096e6ed56/Economic+Surprise+Index+11-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: According to the Economic Surprise Index, investors are underestimating economic activity. This is positive from a contrary opinion perspective. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dc0f433f-f7e2-42cb-8bd2-e3ae4b73aa9e/sp500-index-vs-daily-sentiment-index-11042024.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Short-term sentiment measures are neutral on balance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5b50a006-8426-47ad-acb9-2baa6c09076e/Combined+COT+11-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The Smart Money is bearish. Two observations: 1) This indicates that the Smart Money has cash available, and 2) the Smart Money has been bearish for most of the recent rally. The “cash available” is most important. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c367122b-0410-4588-b846-e0a8d71c2eb8/American+Association+of+Individual+Investors+11-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Individual investors are also leaning bearish, based on the AAII numbers. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/51a43003-b880-415f-907e-0fb8b7c2f770/Open+10+and+30+day+TRIN+11-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: 10 and 30-day TRIN reversing from overbought levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3e1b2ad9-2822-455d-854a-90e95cda6724/Overbought+Oversold+11-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Very short-term OBOS measures (17- and 14-day stochastics) are oversold. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9480b48c-bd3c-4ee0-a7b1-a8aef5c88eb3/Put+Call+Ratios+11-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Put/Call ratios indicate that hedging is at moderate levels. This could be a problem if the market dumps—folks aren’t prepared for it and will have to play catch-up. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2f446efc-4847-45fc-9853-50a8f12bdd13/Hi+Lo+Logic+Index+11-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The market is “in gear” according to the High/Low Logic Index. Another “neutral” indicator. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/34105c20-171c-428a-a047-22c800623649/Russell+2000+vs+Russell+1000+11-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Still waiting for small caps to break out of the long-term downtrend. If this were to occur, it would be a good sign that investors were becoming more risk-on. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/10d80c9a-3908-4f6a-866a-bfff5f7be049/Inflation+11-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update November 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Inflation is heading in the right direction, and U.S. economic activity is good. This provides a good foundation for equity gains in the longer term. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-november-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6d1a4dde-bcf3-42a7-8097-0f9422d64859/Catastrophic+Stop+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a5b9bdde-8c4e-49c9-8524-2ed72054db43/ACWI+Breadth+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The ACWI Breadth Factor indicates that global equity participation has waned. Historically, the strongest uptrends have been supported by a broader range of stocks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1d95207a-e57e-4c7d-9bc7-db9d492016b6/Baltic+Dry+Index+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The Baltic Dry Index Factor has reversed to a sell signal (chart below). The Baltic Dry Index tracks rates for shipping dry bulk commodities and is often considered a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures 23 different shipping routes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0f06d5dd-c118-43e7-b4aa-5c6a55b0e512/Global+Purchasing+Managers+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Global Purchasing Manager Index is still in expansion territory but has moved even lower. It would be concerning if the Services PMI (light blue) dropped below 50, joining the weak manufacturing PMI reading. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/23894e73-c06b-4fe8-940d-d8698de46b2a/Austrailia+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Australia’s composite model declined due to short-term technical deterioration. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3407d8d2-21bb-4505-8d59-349d0d429cc4/Canada+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Canada’s Composite of Leading Economic Indicators is showing positive relative strength vs. the rest of the world. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4b77d06d-58bc-477a-9a8f-46d1e6941c1d/China+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Manufacturing has been slow to recover, as evidenced by most global PMI readings. China’s level has recently moved back above 50, from 49.3 the previous month. Output levels were the highest in four months, with new orders improving. However, the PMI for the overall Emerging Markets category is rolling over (see chart). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9992717c-0b55-4a58-b6a8-dea752541525/France+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Investors continue to sell. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f3da970f-6761-4450-95e1-9084dc303e90/Germany+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Germany’s Manufacturing PMI remains at contraction levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/406c0ff8-65ae-4296-830c-1987fa2e3f49/Japan+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Japan’s Economic Surprise Index remained weak throughout October. This indicates that investors are still too optimistic regarding economic expectations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fbd77adc-ad7c-4dd1-98c6-8a4a27c38145/Switzerland+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The Swiss Franc and U.S. Dollar are at parity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2cea34a0-d334-4ac3-9c40-e5f4e3693040/UK+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Sentiment is reversing from levels denoting excessive optimism. A move below 40 and a reversal back above that level would be bullish. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-november-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b261be66-86d2-464b-95c6-95d8c6f371f6/Catastrophic+Stop+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/89560e22-8a5a-49f1-a060-c0fb9ec94e9e/ACWI+Breadth+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The ACWI Breadth Factor indicates that global equity participation has waned. Historically, the strongest uptrends have been supported by a broader range of stocks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/760999da-2678-47c3-a558-38905dec3381/Baltic+Dry+Index+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The Baltic Dry Index Factor has reversed to a sell signal (chart below). The Baltic Dry Index tracks rates for shipping dry bulk commodities and is often considered a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures 23 different shipping routes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bc1caae6-7892-474b-a48c-0eac41dbf547/US+Treasuries+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Bonds have typically done well during periods of strong economic growth and low inflation. The recent backup in yields likely presents a near-term opportunity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5741cf5c-db66-4f5d-9df0-5e02b40825af/TIPS+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Commodities have been trending lower. Bullish for bonds, bearish for TIPS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4b1dede6-e742-44a5-8ded-865beb3081c2/Mortgage+Backed+Securities+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Mortgage-backed securities short-term technical indicators have turned negative. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/35d17918-3619-4439-a1f1-0664a0ac895f/Floating+rate+notes+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: When the VIX increases to levels illustrating investor fear, Floating Rate Notes have historically tended to underperform. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e783dbe4-20e3-4b7c-9534-d72bedd03fb9/Investment+Grade+Corporate+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Credit Default Swap values are increasing as bond yields back up—which is expected. We are monitoring our mean-reversion indicators for signs that yields are resuming the longer-term downtrend. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/74797587-0163-419d-af7c-d899e67833b4/High+Yield+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Small-cap equity performance often leads to high-yield fixed-income outperformance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3acd772d-c54f-464d-af4c-9c95577d6430/International+Treasury+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Relative strength improving for International Treasuries. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/777c5598-6947-4347-b199-9b784f9a1b80/Emerging+Market+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The EM currency basket is losing ground against the U.S. dollar. A reversal would be bullish. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-november-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/120bd54a-673c-4010-b7c8-c4777cf39fad/Catastrophic+Stop+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3f975815-4af9-413b-b2ec-1506200d408d/ACWI+Breadth+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The ACWI Breadth Factor indicates that global equity participation has waned. Historically, the strongest uptrends have been supported by a broader range of stocks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/543f800f-9e03-43d7-8f3d-82385a7cea64/Baltic+Dry+Index+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The Baltic Dry Index Factor has reversed to a sell signal (chart below). The Baltic Dry Index tracks rates for shipping dry bulk commodities and is often considered a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures 23 different shipping routes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6e066353-be23-409a-9f2e-00146fab98e6/DJIA+vs+Presidential+and+Congressional+Combinations+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: DJIA versus Presidential and Congressional combinations https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2be86518-9e26-4764-b0ec-b497cc55773c/Consumer+Discretionary+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Consumer Credit conditions remain supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/639df551-9009-4692-8a38-9f2ebc11161c/Consumer+Staples+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Relative breadth for the Consumer Staples sector continues to indicate broader-based relative weakness. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ec12628d-25b9-4925-b7fe-00224027ff11/Communication+Services+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Relative price momentum is decelerating. Historically, this has been a headwind for the Communication Services sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/58ed6cc3-2345-421a-9f5a-3a3bc9fd5da7/Energy+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The Energy sector’s sentiment measure is in the process of reversing from levels denoting optimism. Once the indicator bottoms (showing extreme pessimism) and reverses, it has historically been an opportune time to add exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/11265621-3357-462f-ab93-d1cbad2403fb/Financials+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The G10 Economic Surprise Index has turned positive, indicating that investors are potentially underestimating the current levels of economic activity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/274baa87-16a1-4f9d-836c-94a0f444cc4f/Healthcare+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The weakness in healthcare stocks has caused healthcare sector credit spreads to widen, on average. Historically, this has been a headwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/928e73e2-5531-4e5e-a8ab-566d76b5333c/Industrials+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Relative price momentum has turned negative. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8af40b1a-fb43-4967-8183-05373ce75b0a/Information+Technology+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: 50-day Net New Highs are increasing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e8ec751d-638d-4891-ac38-96192c726cf2/Materials+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Emerging Market strength has historically been bullish for the Materials sector. Emerging Markets, however, have rolled over. If our technical indicators begin to show signs of renewed strength, we will reallocate accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d573e7e8-2eec-45d6-9247-845965d023d3/Real+Estate+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 14: When the indicator resides above 0, it indicates that investors have underestimated economic strength, which has historically been a constructive condition for the Real Estate sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1ba8f4bc-239b-4ae3-a76c-c7b2e6f2f430/Utilities+11-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Relative breadth has rolled over. A move below 10 and a reversal back above that level would be bullish. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-november-4-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-11-04 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-sloshing-about monthly 0.5 2024-11-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/10fd79a4-6e2d-48c5-90f2-2affdb21bdf9/day-hagan-tech-talk-10.31.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Sloshing About - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/723d1940-38e6-40a4-b869-2aa0b692806f/ndx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Sloshing About - Make it stand out Figure 1: Select Domestic Equity Indices – year to date. | Sideways isn’t bearish but a condition to be recognized and worked within. For now, my sense is that these break out to the topside, but not until we know the outcome of the U.S. elections. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ff0e6778-8e97-4bb6-932e-d627d410f553/sox.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Sloshing About - Make it stand out Figure 2: Select Domestic Sector Proxies – six-month data. | Our Smart Sector allocation models dictate our decisions relative to our monthly sector allocations. Nonetheless, there is a lot of sloshing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4e4789d7-0473-49bb-b563-69d25808ef64/aapl.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Sloshing About - Make it stand out Figure 3: Select DJIA Components – year to date. | Sloshing, as the DJIA’s bullish chart configuration is approximately two weeks past a record high close. Please manage risk if support is violated. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-october-29-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-10-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8efee7dc-bc18-48b9-92f4-95c06bd7d6ac/Catastrophic+Stop+10-29.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 29, 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3b707e5c-e916-4aed-827d-d72301004600/treasury-yields-mortgage-rates-sofr.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 29, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Treasury Yields, Mortgage Rates, and Secured Overnight Financing Rates (SOFR) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0872b6ae-60a9-4a2a-8943-ce9ebd1a39d8/First+Cut+Date+Table+BP+change+10-29.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 29, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: 10-year Treasury Yield changes following first rate cuts https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d4a77f2a-df33-4202-8841-298965ff2ffc/CPI+Rate+10-29.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 29, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Annualized Growth Rate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bfcd191c-0fcf-4c23-8a40-7fd5fb135e3c/Unemployment+NFIB+Hiring+Plans+10-29.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 29, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Unemployment Rate vs. NFIB Hiring Plans https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b4991984-ecca-4179-a013-64ae109ee1a5/Consensus+Estimates+10-29.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 29, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Consensus Estimates Y/Y Growth for S&P 500 Operating Earnings per Share by Quarter https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d1e89cbe-0255-4b8b-91c9-3ee5523dabef/Percentage+of+Companies+with+Positive+Earnings+10-29.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 29, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Percent of Companies with Positive Earnings Surprises https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-the-price-of-admission-volatility monthly 0.5 2024-10-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1729706738316-A9KKUPKCKCQCRKP3U8EN/day-hagan-tech-talk-10.23.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Price of Admission: Volatility - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c6fdcfa9-7d1f-4f96-a7e9-c94503c4ea18/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Price of Admission: Volatility - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | Areas of support highlighted by green lines. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b6a54b15-4e9f-465a-8f9a-f3e10195362b/mid.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Price of Admission: Volatility - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 400 Mid Cap Index – weekly data. | Very few are discussing this bullish complex. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fc0c307d-1a52-4a90-86e1-490eb36636fa/pall.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Price of Admission: Volatility - Make it stand out Figure 3: Palladium Continuous Contract – monthly data. | Bullish with an intriguing risk to reward. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-october-22-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-10-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e4f7b840-1a10-4bd7-bb35-0004fcd0e2d6/Catastrophic+Stop+10-22.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 22, 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Modeo vsl S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/096997f0-13ef-4ed0-a7f1-9f3df6d41bcc/Baltic+Dry+Index+Factor+10-22.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 22, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Baltic Dry Index Factor vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/08faf878-113a-4f55-875a-9a739bd18dfa/SP500+Daily+Sentiment+Index+10-22.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 22, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 Index vs. S&P 500 Daily Sentiment Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/64876ab0-45cd-42e4-b963-693a47629036/Momentum+Reversal+10-22.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 22, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: S&P 500 Index vs. Momentum Reversals. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/14554639-ec3c-4411-b543-c5d90284bbd9/Overbought+Oversold+10-22.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 22, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: S&P 500 Index vs. Overbought/Oversold Indicators https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8dadcd52-db59-48cc-841b-9d60a7d7ff43/OAS+10-22.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 22, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: OAS on Corporates, High Yield, Mortgages, and Agencies https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7127c27a-1b02-4bab-ad38-2fcc8feaf24e/Economic+Surprise+Index+10-22.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 22, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: S&P 500 Index vs. Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e877ddfb-de13-456e-8240-568380de68de/200-day+Moving+Average+10-22.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 22, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: MSCI All Country World Index vs. 200-Day Moving Average Indicators https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fd07b170-333c-4406-b137-f1f28d698d3f/Breadth+of+Central+Bank+10-22.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 22, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: MSCI All Countries World Index vs. Breadth of Central Bank Rate Changes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7f0dce6f-537c-440c-88e3-40817f23013b/6+month+Implied+Forward+Spread+10-22.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 22, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: 6-Month Implied Forward Treasury Bill Rate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ca2f50e7-591e-4c17-8dab-242037898898/SP500+Earnings+Growth+10-22.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 22, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: S&P 500 Earnings Growth (Y/Y): Q3 2024 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3711935d-3635-4c16-82f3-21c628600439/SP500+Earnings+Growth+Year+over+Year+10-22.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 22, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: S&P 500 Earnings Growth (Y/Y) https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-october-15-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-10-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9c8dcab9-2829-496f-9eb0-f787a2167634/Catastrophic+Stop+10-15.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 15, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model declined as the market made new highs. This aligns with expectations, as the model is designed to appraise risk, and risks naturally increase as the market rises. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8ab3e4a3-32cd-45ac-a4d9-429484f76da7/Daily+Trading+Sentiment+10-15.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Near-term sentiment measures are now rated excessively optimistic. This condition can be considered a minor headwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5de17f14-0ed5-47ca-834e-daec67752c32/High+Yield+and+Emerging+Market+Breadth+10-15.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: It is interesting how the equity market has shrugged off the recent rate increases. With rates significantly higher over the past few weeks, we wonder if the next leg higher (following the election and into the very seasonably favorable year-end period) might be further buttressed by rates reversing lower, assuming the lower rates aren’t due to some sort of economic hiccup. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/23330dbf-0d4c-4550-bad1-13ae6aab4916/Cycle+Composite+10-15.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The Cycle Composite combines the 1-year, 4-year, and 10-year cycles. Trends are more important than levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8fb618d7-1705-4d7c-a9df-ac0a7cdf5fcb/sp500-index-vs-ndr-supply-and-demand.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Demand (buyers) has broken out to new highs relative to Supply (sellers). We go with the flow until it reaches an extreme and reverses. Note the performance difference detailed in the stats box at the bottom of the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/46c320c4-f5fa-4f03-b5c7-3d54c54b9fef/Daily+Bond+Sentiment+10-15.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Bond sentiment had moved into the Excessive Optimism zone and is now back to neutral levels. A move back below 38, and then a reversal, would support lower yields. (Note: the chart shows prices, not yields.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ff04d85b-bb22-468a-acaf-337572ce5a3e/Percentage+of+Companies+with+Positive+Earnings+10-15.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Given the importance of earnings meeting or exceeding expectations, we’ll be closely monitoring Positive Earnings Surprises. With 5.77% of companies reporting through October 11th, 75% have reported positive surprises. Last quarter it was 79% (for the full quarter). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4431db88-2c7b-48c5-a01c-6d095ab63942/Actual+Operating+Earnings+10-15.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: On average, earnings estimates have been 8.14% too high for Consensus Earnings Estimates for the next fiscal year. However, the range is wide. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/010110a3-ee4e-46ca-baec-53b2529da52a/SP500+Consensus+Operating+10-15.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: We can see the progression of lower EPS estimates for Q4, from 24.6% on 2-14-2024 to 18.1% on 8-20-2024. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5fe498e1-6de7-4a31-b0d1-017d36598e52/Forward+vs+Trailing+PE+Ratios+10-15.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: As discussed in previous Updates, earnings hitting the mark are critical given that there isn’t much wiggle room around valuations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/900fec3d-6e6f-440b-88bb-74a30acebd54/Trade+Weighted+Dollar+10-15.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: We’re also watching the dollar, which has reversed from Excessive Pessimism levels and is now neutral. A stronger dollar has tended to negatively impact U.S. Corporate earnings. (A 2015 study found that for every 10% rise in the dollar, U.S. multinational companies experienced a 3%- 4% decline in earnings per share.) https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-october-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-11-04 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-october-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-12-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0ce54309-d79f-40ba-8289-8fe793c8e8a9/Catastrophic+Stop+10-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2f9388d0-336e-4a2f-8806-943067f2c22d/Short+Term+Trend+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Short-term Trend Factor continues to oscillate around neutral levels. A decisive move in either direction would quickly be reflected in the overall model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a499cf68-919f-4662-85a2-9143b8cac927/Stock+Bond+Relative+Strength+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength Factor is back on a buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b545089a-15b2-45df-8b06-3659e5c36229/High+Yield+OAS+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: High-yield OAS reversed to bullish levels. This indicates that the financial markets are behaving relatively normally. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7833ea85-2fe6-4f3a-b820-6a5406d29ef2/Baltic+Dry+Index+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The Baltic Dry Index Factor is also now positive (chart above). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ffed5785-cb75-4c0e-83ad-432ffecfa33b/Global+Recession+Probability+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The Global Recession Probability Model crossed into the neutral zone from bullish. A move above 70 would denote “High Recession Risk.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f782b261-ab4f-47c4-b1ae-b02f0b01ce16/Global+Purchasing+Manager+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Global Purchasing Manager Index is still in expansion territory but has moved even lower. It would be concerning if the Services PMI (light blue) dropped below 50, joining the manufacturing PMI reading. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6fbe98e9-3165-4880-b618-85ded1213480/Australia+Economic+Surprise+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Australia’s Economic Surprise Index continues to improve, indicating that economic releases have been outpacing expectations, on average, over the past three months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b104fef2-2ea1-49aa-990c-0619e24396ad/Canada+Leading+Economic+Indicators+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Canada’s Composite of Leading Economic Indicators is showing positive relative strength vs. the rest of the world. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0adbb68c-ee7f-4a00-9598-ce85b84a59d7/China+High+Yield+Credit+Spread+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: EM High-yield credit spreads continue to narrow. This indicates that investors aren’t anticipating a significant financial disruption. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b43c797f-468e-4ae9-82f6-507c88911ec2/China+Forward+PE+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10a: China’s Forward P/E has increased back to the 22-year average, removing some of the margin of safety discussed last month. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7eeaa1b7-640f-4614-9bac-506dc109aa45/German+French+and+Belgian+10+yr+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: French 10-year rates have rolled over, but relative to Germany, they are still elevated, which is a headwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1f60aaef-3ddd-4e4a-a347-7ed1bdebc4e4/msci-germany-index-forward-price-earnings.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Germany’s Forward P/E is back to the long-term average. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6c601cc7-6bd8-4325-8eb0-ea4ff4b77986/Japan+Economic+Surprise+Index+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Japan’s Economic Surprise Index weakened in September. Indicates that investors are still too optimistic regarding economic expectations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f81127bb-9bfc-4c46-8cf1-e1cfef71cb54/Switzerland+asset+flows+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Assets continue to exit the Eurozone region. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/04446946-97e9-415b-9923-b2c550209c09/UK+Earnings+Revisions+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Earnings revisions have reversed lower. Urges caution. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-october-07-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-10-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b75e8eed-c35d-4576-bf92-af5ddfb21d3d/Catastrophic+Stop+10-7.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 7, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model continues to recommend a fully invested position. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/88c92dbe-5f70-4de9-a8b3-bf4d0e4e416e/High+Yield+OAS+10-7.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 7, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Declining high-yield OAS is supportive of equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/79744139-02c6-421b-b90c-12ed26876120/Majority+of+five+month+winning+streaks+10-7.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 7, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The 5-month win streak study concludes that strength begets strength. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c22b576e-5f88-4436-95a7-b4b2a5b37964/Consumer+Discretionary+10-7.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 7, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Earnings surprises reversed from negative levels and are now more supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/734a40db-d9a7-4678-8e58-a8f1c4670727/Information+Technology+10-7.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 7, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Relative breadth is still in a downtrend. However, the indicator is approaching levels where significant reversals have formed. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/27e95e54-f551-4470-b59d-3d6ff283aeb6/Health+Care+10-7.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 7, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: It was a nice run, but the Healthcare sector’s momentum indicator is now rolling over from an overbought extreme. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8b7b8083-63c7-45cc-833f-417d91ce0eca/Consumer+Staples+10-7.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 7, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Relative breadth for the Consumer Staples sector indicates broader-based relative weakness. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d68731b7-8e7d-4fe0-9228-f2c7e0c3af21/Citigroup+Economic+Surprise+Index+10-7.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 7, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The Economic Surprise Index shows that investors are no longer overestimating economic releases. Expectations have been recalibrated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8e2f1fed-ecac-4dc0-8670-eb6a3a73f759/Monetary+and+Fiscal+Policy+10-7.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 7, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Historically, the monetary and fiscal policy index has risen during election years (tapering off toward the end of the year) and then entered a downtrend for the First and Second Presidential years (orange line). Note that even though stimulus declined, on average, during the First Presidential Year, the S&P 500 continued to move higher (blue line). It wasn’t until the 2nd Presidential Year that equities demonstrably weakened. We’ll be closely monitoring stimulus and liquidity indicators for signs that the credit backdrop is tightening up. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/24b8cc9a-82e8-44c7-a54e-36eaa3b5c25f/Presidential+and+Congressional+Combinations+10-7.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 7, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Looking at DJIA performance during different Presidential and Congressional Combinations, we note that a Republican President and Split Congress have historically had the lowest returns since 1901. However, that condition has only been in place 11.36% of the time, which is a relatively small sample size. A Republican President with a Republican Congress has historically been better for equities. We take these kinds of studies with a grain of salt in that it is the policy initiatives that will most influence the financial markets, and getting a bead on what each party is promoting is proving to be elusive. At this point, the most glaring and “investable” difference would be around potential tax policy changes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cffa08e9-a57b-40f1-b79a-3e8c318ebbba/Tax+Policy+Trial+Balloons+10-7.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update October 7, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: History shows that a “High Tax” environment does not support high valuation multiples. For example, when inflation is neutral (between 0% and 4%) and taxes are low, the S&P 500 typically trades around a 20.1x Price/Earnings ratio. However, if inflation is neutral and taxes are high, the average multiple dropped to 16.3x, which would equate to more than a 21% drop just to the multiple reset. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-october-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-12-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/83d64456-99bf-4063-b459-719d22128616/Catastrophic+Stop+10-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/53135529-d0cc-44b4-8b11-e39d86ec5d2e/Short+Term+Trend+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Short-term Trend Factor continues to oscillate around neutral levels. A decisive move in either direction would quickly be reflected in the overall model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a5397a33-ac5f-471d-8bcf-23506e9a3588/Stock+Bond+Relative+Strength+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength Factor is back on a buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b43476b8-e11b-49c1-9dc3-82f24fe4db2a/High+Yield+OAS+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: High-yield OAS reversed to bullish levels. This indicates that the financial markets are behaving relatively normally. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fcf60670-f249-4110-a0fe-85a2e32c6a98/Baltic+Dry+Index+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The Baltic Dry Index Factor is also now positive (chart above). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/572199c3-9ba9-4b74-8bfb-f8e0c864e6ce/Global+Recession+Probability+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The Global Recession Probability Model crossed into the neutral zone from bullish. A move above 70 would denote “High Recession Risk.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0e47f1e4-9395-4d09-8d1a-9864538038e3/Return+Decomposition+around+first+rate+cut.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: All first rate cuts since 1954. The “average” suggests a positive tilt. However, it’s not a perfect indicator. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3ae23f84-bab1-49bd-9426-4889542440fd/Return+Decomposition+around+first+rate+cut+before+recession.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The observations around two “first rate cuts” before recessions showed EPS getting crushed but P/Es expanding significantly. Again, we don’t see this scenario currently in play or likely. Nonetheless, if our economic indicators shift radically negatively, we will adjust accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d3219ef2-77f8-4a89-a3f7-59d268e471ec/Earnings+Model+19-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Earnings Model is neutral. Historically, earnings have grown when the model has been in this zone. Note: The model includes diverse measures of Industrial Production, yield curves, PMIs, credit spreads, earnings momentum, and estimate revisions. If the model declines below 40%, it will indicate that earnings expectations need to be recalibrated lower. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ba35d227-2a97-4c2a-affd-55f61be36f32/Consumer+Discretionary.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Earnings surprises reversed from negative levels and are now more supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cf546133-2a5d-4f1d-9bb4-5f25284e9d68/Consumer+Staples+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Relative breadth for the Consumer Staples sector indicates broader-based relative weakness. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cfd44edb-f926-4dac-97d4-f10e94288956/Communication+Services+10-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Relative sales growth is decelerating. Historically, this has been a headwind for the Communication Services sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dcfcd6bc-6ef6-4e0b-a4db-2876d831ccf5/Energy+Sentiment+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 13: The Energy sector’s sentiment measure is in the process of reversing from levels denoting optimism. Once the indicator bottoms (showing extreme pessimism) and reverses, it has historically been an opportune time to add exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/812069ea-b36e-43c9-b03b-8edd8a4a2185/Financials+overbought+oversold+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 14: The Financials sector is heading toward oversold levels. A buy signal is generated when the 21-day smoothing declines below the lower bracket and reverses back above. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/30cc56fd-ef72-4bb7-97a3-965f570665c9/Healthcare+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 15: It was a nice run, but the Healthcare sector’s momentum indicator is now rolling over from an overbought extreme. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9f148feb-043b-44d2-a03f-a51b4a38a83d/Industrials+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 16: Relative price momentum is now approaching overbought levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/91d05cf2-52d6-483b-813a-bcd09fe7a2a2/Information+Technology+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 17: Relative breadth is still in a downtrend. However, the indicator is approaching levels where significant reversals have started to form. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/875a0cd0-1c4b-4645-843d-222d68cc43be/Materials+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 18: Emerging Market strength has historically been bullish for the Materials sector. However, the weight of the evidence still leans negative. If our technical indicators begin to show signs of renewed strength, we will reallocate accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f86e9229-e931-47b5-b0f9-23316710f340/Real+Estate+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 19: Based on the Citi Economic Surprise Index, economic releases over the past three months have just about met investor expectations. If the indicator moves above 0, it would indicate that investors have underestimated economic strength, which has historically been a constructive condition for the Real Estate sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4fe1ba9b-14ac-4842-ac60-8c5886f31971/Utilities+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 20: The yield on Investment-Grade Utilities has been declining since its peak in 2023. While still relatively high, historically, this trend is currently a headwind. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-october-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-10-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3a2453dd-d0ea-4622-b46c-042aca771300/Catastrophic+Stop+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/68952ea2-cc1e-4807-8f80-a954a9d186ca/Treasury+bond+prices+around+first+rate+cuts.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: After first rate cuts, yields tend to stabilize unless there is a recession. We are currently in the “soft landing” camp. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6bc30535-e2a0-4d76-a705-1789394130f4/US+Treasuries+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Bonds have typically done well during periods of strong economic growth and low inflation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/260aa194-a390-4b41-89a2-63c7f144e96c/US+TIPS+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Commodities are trending lower. Bullish for bonds, bearish for TIPS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7bf7c311-a48a-472f-9bfc-a96c4ca2aad7/US+Mortgage+Backed+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Mortgage-backed securities are considered somewhat defensive relative to High-Yield bonds. When the credit spreads of high-yield bonds widen, investors tend to gravitate toward defense. With OAS declining, this is less positive for MBS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a4c9ab8-3452-4632-8ed5-c1fd474d25d0/Floating+rate+notes+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Momentum for U.S. Floating Rate Securities is still rated negative but may be finding support. We are looking for technical confirmation before adding exposure. Outside of a geopolitical upheaval, we do not anticipate an inflation spike. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/79e3cf9f-25a4-4a7c-b81d-d17c430c889d/us-investment-grade-corporate-us-dollar.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Increasing bond volatility is a headwind for IG Corporates. Outside of the increased volatility and U.S. dollar weakness, the model is generally bullish for this credit sector. Note that the dollar indicator below appears to be basing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e6b8bb5a-5b0b-4727-8039-035b5236eb45/us-high-yield-bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Small-cap equity performance often leads to high-yield fixed-income outperformance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/34655133-0fee-467b-b65d-6fc0e218fe08/International+IG+Corporate+Bonds+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Rising bond volatility is negative for international corporate bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ab20a032-9b02-4544-80da-1bdbacd2a7d0/Emerging+Market+Bond+10-4.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Commodities appear to be basing. If the short-term MA moves above the longer-term MA, it would provide a bullish message. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-weight-of-the-evidence monthly 0.5 2024-10-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1727797080315-20PUXAIUW2JR54DT6GNU/day-hagan-tech-talk-10.01.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Weight of the Evidence - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f3e70610-8497-4e75-a253-0816866d9658/indu.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Weight of the Evidence - Make it stand out Figure 1: DJIA with Rising 200-day MA (support, blue dashed line) | Favorable price trend with resistance highlighted in red; support highlighted by green and blue lines. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cd72b26c-90c8-4520-9d33-76e39151b67e/ndx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Weight of the Evidence - Make it stand out Figure 2: NASDAQ 100 and XLK vs S&P 500. | Based on our Smart Sector Strategy sector allocation models, we are positioned accordingly—choppy for longer. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/79690b87-da1c-474d-bcda-77c6290964aa/tran.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Weight of the Evidence - Make it stand out Figure 3: Dow Jones Transportation Average. | Considering the potential port strike, is anyone talking about this? Not that I see, which is encouraging (bullish) from a contrarian perspective. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-september-30-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-09-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0c942ef5-4372-40d3-8f39-6e3aff47b15d/Catastrophic+Stop+9-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 The NDR Catastrophic Sell Stop model combines time-tested, objective indicators designed to identify high risk periods for the equity market. The model (Figure 1, chart at right) remains with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation, as the composite score improved toward month-end. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/479e78fb-d792-47e8-85a2-01c1da5a05b1/Daily+Sentiment+Composite+9-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8976f4a3-67e5-43a6-959a-c0a68baa96c3/NDR+Crowd+Sentiment+Poll+9-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a472269e-a52c-41f8-aa8b-9db85b384835/SP500+Cycle+Composite+9-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0344afd5-6e67-4517-b8a2-329fc58dc8dd/Supply+Demand+9-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9713b65c-b8b3-4aa3-8f17-bafc08fa7e1c/High+Low+Logic+Index+9-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cc114a8e-6243-4fa7-bfbb-8d8ae52fde30/Economic+Timing+Model+9-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d7733dc7-4988-4e44-8a7f-f9e999b021ac/US+Recession+Probability+Model+9-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a71e92f4-3f32-4094-b33d-2a568e9abd53/Global+Recession+Probability+9-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cb0168c0-8b66-4a54-a8ba-968b268f6b86/Median+expected+earnings+growth+9-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8a9c045c-e953-4ae0-a989-2413d16cd5e1/SP500+GAAP+Earnings+Model+9-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0b756316-abe9-44dd-9aad-ed066337001f/Earnings+model+indicators+9-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b186d5bc-0d00-4c9b-bdbd-c4058d935002/DJIA+Table+Part+1.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/de636027-a655-4664-8fe3-17db063c3f59/DJIA+Table+Part+2.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-september-24-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-09-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5f5f04a6-2b3e-4b2b-8f21-0864d3d5e2ae/Catastrophic+Stop+Model+9-24.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 24, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model continues to support a fully invested position. With the S&P 500 at all-time highs, the model has correctly maintained a risk-on stance for all of 2024. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d89f9444-7c38-4874-9636-2f684e117922/Global+PMI+9-24.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 24, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Global PMIs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/88731df9-2105-42ff-9a80-f78163805e1c/SP+Global+Purchasing+Managers+9-24.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 24, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: In the U.S., Services are holding up while Manufacturing is stalling. A strike by port workers (along with already-striking Boeing employees) would exacerbate the problem. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a3938416-f0a0-4a97-b613-5e57fe457b97/Atlanta+Fed+GDPNow+9-24.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 24, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model indicates a slight increase from Q2 to Q3 (values show the annualized growth rate expectations for real GDP). Q4 is a wildcard with the upcoming election and Fed decisions, but most estimates we’re seeing are in the 1% range. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/31ac3aef-fb95-446c-a59b-fa4a4ad1e441/Inflation+Timing+Model+9-24.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 24, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: This 22-indicator model, tracking measures of commodity prices, producer prices, and industrial production, indicates “Moderate Disinflation.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/40501776-2b15-40d1-825d-f2a22d15181d/Implied+Inflation+9-24.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 24, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: 5-year implied forward inflation is 2.3%, while the 10-year implied forward inflation is 2.5%. Both are near their respective 21-year means. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/66012007-deac-46d7-a7df-d4507f65f7d2/Growth+Inflation+Table+9-24.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 24, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Historically, when Growth was rising and Inflation Neutral (green highlight), equity returns have been good—16.9% GPA. Even if growth declined to “Growth Stable” and Inflation remained Neutral, the GPA was 13.8%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/28178975-a26a-43c8-aba1-b54e7f8e70ca/China+Slow+Growth+Probability+Model+9-24.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 24, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: China needed to do something. Economic models and indicators are flashing “High Recession Risk” signals, and real estate values are still plummeting. Note that it has typically been a good time to own Chinese equities when the model below starts to reverse back below 70. A more stable China would be positive for U.S. financial assets. Note that the election is also a factor here, with both candidates putting forth more punitive tariff plans. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bd330682-a70a-4a9e-96fb-e45429545051/China+Forward+PE+9-14.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 24, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: China’s Forward P/E is 9.1x, at the lower end of the 22-year range. The point is that there is some pessimism already in equity pricing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/700430a2-b367-446a-bd9d-4a0462bee369/fed-funds-futures-yield-curve-08.26.2024.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 24, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Investors now expect a quicker pace of rate cuts initially. However, the endpoint is virtually unchanged from 10 days ago. (Rate expectations are lower than one month ago.) Overall, the Fed is past peak hawkishness, which is constructive. However, the Fed isn’t quite our friend—more like a casual acquaintance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f65b6263-e84e-4bbb-ba72-fdf878daa6d0/Daily+Sentiment+9-24.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 24, 2024 - Make it stand out PS: Sentiment is still in the neutral zone. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-following-the-best-week-in-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-10-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6c6ec315-d80b-4126-bc83-fa37f0c88e6c/day-hagan-tech-talk-09.20.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Following the Best Week in 2024 - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d4f9a85c-6584-4c84-97ae-324ae4578e19/percentage-of.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Following the Best Week in 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 1: Percent of S&P 500 Stocks Outperforming the S&P 500 over the Past Three Months. | This depicts the broadening of the equity market beyond the Index Movers (Large Cap Growth/Technology). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a0fc067c-6061-42fe-9fc4-95e553a97081/utilities.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Following the Best Week in 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P Sector ETF Performance between 7.16.24 and 9.19.24. | Eye opening, if I may say so. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e6fdcf43-539c-4254-88a1-3ff6a9c7bb95/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Following the Best Week in 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500. | Non-trading targets and support. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-september-17-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-09-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ca7e808c-0ad6-4f28-9d82-b2a99808d17f/Catastrophic+Stop+9-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 17, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model continues to support a fully invested position. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a7e76fc0-b02d-493f-aa36-6830cacf0370/Baltic+Dry+Index+9-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Baltic Dry Index tracks rates for shipping dry bulk commodities and is often considered a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures 23 different shipping routes. However, the indicator has yet to decisively break out, meaning that it could quickly reverse back to a sell signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/da70b918-4a9d-4bcb-9f53-a78dd8c6813f/Retail+Sales+9-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Retail Sales trends correlate well with Home Sales trends (correlation = 0.68%). Continued consumer spending is critical to avoiding an economic slowdown. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8ea9f7bc-8d9e-4438-aeae-6019b8342870/US+Recession+Probability+9-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The U.S. Recession Probability model assesses trends in employment, hours worked, and wages and salaries by state over the past 3 months. The model’s increase in recession probability odds is consistent with the message from the Global Recession Probability model shown last week. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/557820d3-5f49-4c59-8f22-c851518afeeb/Credit+Conditions+9-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Favorable (and improving) credit conditions are supportive. We note that credit spreads (featured last week) continue to illustrate a healthy financial backdrop. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/76945243-b8fd-4fa6-9196-c866b0f101f8/Earnings+Model+9-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The Earnings model’s recent decline is due to the potential economic weakness indicated by the increasing number of unemployment claims. We note that measures of industrial production, Composite PMIs, the yield curve, EPS momentum over the past three months, and services activity are also weaker. Indicators calling price pressures (inflation), credit spreads, and SP500 estimate revisions (second chart below) are positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9b1371b6-9e04-4bbc-b213-07dc60fb25e0/Trailing+Earnings+and+Earnings+Revisions+9-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: If earnings are indeed under pressure, we would expect the percentage of positive earnings revisions to start rolling over. To date, this measure is holding up well. However, weakness would, of course, be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f759df22-faea-44c4-8c9d-62b2846102dc/Target+Rate+Probabilites+9-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Odds for a 50-bps cut have increased from 25% one month ago to 65% as of this writing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/65584ef6-efe8-44a4-9cf9-2062bda5c9a7/Daily+Trading+Sentiment+9-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Equity Sentiment is neutral, as are most overbought/oversold indicators and composites. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f0dc4d6f-f73c-4485-b70b-56d2d2ae83b2/Forward+PE+Ratio+9-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 17, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The S&P 500’s Forward P/E is back to 21.6x. Our sector models continue to lean toward defensive areas of the market, including Utilities, Staples, and Health Care. As we all know, valuations don’t matter until they do. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6e8e593a-bc1f-4943-b90d-c8850c13fe55/Fed+funds+9-17.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 17, 2024 - Make it stand out PS: Below is the current Fed Funds Futures Curve (dark blue line) to give you an idea of what’s currently priced in the market. Investors are currently forecasting Fed Funds to hit 3% in 10 months or so. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-september-12-2024-fomc monthly 0.5 2024-09-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1726155110516-3BFFDK58X6VNZ9TKWVYS/day-hagan-tech-talk-09.12.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: FOMC - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dc62c7f4-814b-467a-8a18-2f4b9d6b8b91/ust30y.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: FOMC - Make it stand out Figure 1: Yield Curve and Fed Funds Rate (FFR). | Is the Fed aware of the distance between yields and FFR? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/322a9275-b3db-405f-9282-e22ee04b0c45/sptl.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: FOMC - Make it stand out Figure 2: Treasury/Corporate proxy with rising 40-week MA. Weekly data. | Bullish. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-september08-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-09-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3dabce5b-cb44-42aa-923e-a0f857412337/Catastrophic+Stop+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model’s indicators remain near neutral levels (a decline below 40% for two consecutive days generates a sell signal). This sets the model up to respond to the next major trend. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/774f8d29-e054-4b7d-a962-3df8e44d9e19/Short-term+trend+Factor+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Short-term Trend Factor registered a buy signal last week. However, it is poised to reverse back to a sell signal should market weakness continue. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/12b5930e-cac9-4c83-a03e-d66f16f0e445/Daily+Sentiment+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Short-term sentiment measures are not yet signaling excessive pessimism. A move below 41.5% would shift the composite to a positive stance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d181ecd1-13d1-4ed7-9d08-5ff55379b327/10-day+Moving+Averages+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: On a very short-term basis, looking at the number of stocks trading above their 10-day moving averages, we note that a decline below 7.7% has often identified oversold conditions. Subsequently, a reversal back above the 7.7% level has provided useful buy signals. The indicator (bottom clip of the chart) is nearing levels seen on August 5th. (This indicator is similar to the Zweig Thrust Indicator’s message.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7e6b771c-9bff-4222-9b10-282e822873fe/McClellan+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Longer-term measures of trend and breadth are still neutral overall. For example, the McClellan Summation Index isn’t currently showing either a breadth thrust or intense oversold conditions being in place. Moreover, the indicator has been drifting higher. In other words, the longer-term trend is intact--so far. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c33a5904-83bd-4a88-995d-3a29c856610f/MSCI+All+Country+World+Index+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Of the MSCI All Country World Index constituents, 53% are above their 200-day moving averages, while 67.3% are sporting rising 200-day moving averages. This has historically supported global equity prices. (Note: 41 of 47 ACWI stock markets show rising 200-day moving averages.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a12883e8-b809-46ae-91c9-d1cec6f69512/OAS+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Options spreads remaining relatively narrow indicates that investors are not panicking. It would be concerning if the four series below began to move above their respective long-term means. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bdb744da-74c6-4927-8cb1-920c7f3c2b10/Citigroup+Economic+Surprise+Index+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Economic indicators calling U.S. activity continue to miss expectations, on average, but there has been some recent improvement. In our view, this indicator needs to reverse above the lower bracket for a significant new leg higher to develop. In Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole, he noted that the labor market had clearly slowed, and the current policy rate level provides ample room to respond to greater-than-expected labor market weakness if needed. This seemed to confirm that rate cuts are on the table, with the first likely happening on September 18th. Whether it is a 25 or 50-bps reduction is a toss-up (currently, there is a 70% chance of 25 and 30% for a 50-bps reduction). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7ad47a1c-b9ae-4265-8d46-45b2b0794831/Global+Recession+Probability+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Global Recession Probability model has vaulted above the important 30 level, which is concerning. Historically, when the indicator has been between 30 and 70, there’s a 57.28% probability that a global slowdown (as defined by the OECD) is in effect. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5d75ce98-48a1-47a8-85fc-07ac4d007b11/Economic+Timing+Model+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The NDR Economic Timing Model’s message has shifted from “Moderate Growth” to “Slow Growth”. This is consistent with the Global Recession Probability Model. The change is primarily due to weaker housing statistics and manufacturing PMIs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/303d027e-508b-48c2-b515-b3ffde49c253/Table+for+Growth+and+Inflation+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Nonetheless, history shows that even during slow growth environments, equities have trended higher over time—note the equity returns for the “Growth Stable, Inflation Neutral” environment. Based on the returns observed during periods of “Growth Weak,” you can also see why we are focused on the economic backdrop. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a84b6ac7-a56c-4a76-b124-4d92cc8f0c6d/SP500+Cycle+Composite+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12a: Seasonality is also getting a lot of airtime. Historically speaking, we are clearly in a weaker period for both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ (charts above). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/236e5d70-8150-419c-a248-ec9311cfb2bf/nasdaq-cycle-composite-for-2024.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12b: Seasonality is also getting a lot of airtime. Historically speaking, we are clearly in a weaker period for both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ (charts above). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/95fb58d1-788f-47f9-b6f1-7cb7721b60d0/Leading+Indicator+Model+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Yet, the Leading Indicator Model, a composite of 10 indicators that “end to lead the market at major turning points,” is currently bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f97727ea-413e-44fe-aff1-604f32586b49/Fed+Funds+Futures+9-8.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 8, 2024 - Make it stand out PS: Above is the current Fed Funds Futures Curve (dark blue line) to give you an idea of what’s currently priced in the market. Interestingly, rate cut expectations are now for more cuts than what was expected six months (orange) and one year ago (light blue). https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-first-and-goal monthly 0.5 2024-09-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1725557326435-HN0N04MYEB5EKM8V5ZOV/day-hagan-tech-talk-09.05.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: First and Goal - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c87fff18-f9cf-4a1c-b369-54d40d7aedfd/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: First and Goal - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | Which causes the SPX to bounce? The rising 21-day MA or gap support between 5501 and 5463? Levels are shown inside the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/164059f1-7d1c-41ae-9497-f87292f6dde9/s-and-p-500-cycle-composite-2024.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: First and Goal - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2024. | Updated 2024 Cycle Composite, through 9/3/24. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/558a3639-0ca6-4279-a17d-1c1a174fd34c/xlp-xlk.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: First and Goal - Make it stand out Figure 3: Staples and Financial proxies relative to Technology proxy—weekly data. | Non-Index Movers outperforming the Index Movers. We view the troops joining the generals as positive for the market's long-term health. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-september-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-09-05 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-september-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-09-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f179c3d5-3aa1-452d-b1dd-180e5026299f/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index. The model’s decline was due to the Short-Term Trend, U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength, High Yield OAS, and Baltic Dry Index Factors shifting to negative levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7d447f3d-99a2-43d0-9467-d9c18a025ab6/GLobal+PMI+vs+Central+Bank+Breadth+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Broad-based central bank rate cuts have historically been positive for economic activity. This helps support higher beta bond sectors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a25e4395-1ebe-4150-988f-ca2d3014187c/US+Treasuries+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Inflation expectations continue to move lower. Bullish for bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1350df5a-95ec-4b87-84b0-29255760b9ac/TIPS+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Commodities are trending lower. Bullish for bonds, bearish for TIPS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/15905514-c547-4d34-9863-69c7e5f00095/US+Mortgage+Backed+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Mortgage-backed securities are considered somewhat defensive relative to High-Yield bonds. When High-Yield bond spreads widen, investors tend to gravitate toward defense. With OAS declining, it is less positive for MBS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e70e31ba-4217-4ee6-8af5-e173e84d2c71/US+Floating+Rate+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Momentum for U.S. Floating Rate Securities is still rated negative but may be finding support. We are looking for technical confirmation before adding exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/63040d38-7719-432f-a61f-e6545a9fe2f6/US+Investment+Grade+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Increasing bond volatility is a headwind for IG Corporates. Outside of the volatility and U.S. dollar weakness, the model is generally bullish for this credit sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/76b664c3-a9c4-4c9f-a240-40e3d9edfb46/US+High+Yield+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Small-cap equity performance often leads to high-yield fixed income performance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d619e43f-cb66-4fc2-b2bd-0fdb085b23b8/International+Investment+Grade+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Inflation extremes have moderated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aa973590-e45c-4189-871b-d2e0551b6b7b/Emerging+Market+Bonds+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: EM currency basket showing signs of relative strength vs. the U.S. dollar. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-september-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-09-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ec8dc7ae-994d-4fb1-b4bc-ec33a4d700a9/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a409f543-f4df-4bf6-822e-92b57a3ec620/Stock+Bond+Relative+Strength+Factor.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Short-term Trend Factor is hovering around neutral levels. A decisive move in either direction would quickly be reflected in the overall model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1b076b4d-b178-42e8-85c7-3a5b6b58d8c0/Stock+Bond+Relative+Strength+Factor.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength Factor also reversed to a sell signal. The previous buy signal had been in place since November 17, 2023. When bonds evidence relative strength, it has historically been a good indication that the demand for equities is transitioning to a more risk-off or defensive posture. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2d35868a-22af-4557-9cef-578c2b1bbd6c/High+yield+OAS+Factor.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The same holds true for our measures of credit spreads. For example, high-yield OAS could quickly reverse to bullish levels. Even though the indicator has generated a sell signal, it wouldn’t take much to reverse it. The High-yield OAS moving averages have ticked higher but are still at historically low levels. This indicates that the financial markets are behaving relatively normally. A spike higher would be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/78ac1a3e-320b-4928-b8a7-35d1a84c4e26/Baltic+Dry+Index+Factor.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Economic activity has declined slightly, but real GDP growth is still positive overall. The Baltic Dry Index Factor has moved moderately lower (chart above). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0a7a649e-6a26-4d64-b8ec-89ebaf1b8e96/Global+Recession+Probability+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Global Recession Probability Model indicates risks rising but not yet crossing important thresholds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9d9c1db4-dc89-4f70-9b24-d50d3fb06522/Global+Purchasing+Managers+Index+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Global Purchasing Manager Index still in expansion territory but moving lower. It would be concerning if the Services PMI (light blue) dropped below 50. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/33aee3f4-fb05-4745-bce6-332a870a721b/Australia+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Australia’s Economic Surprise Index has turned positive, indicating that economic releases have been outpacing expectations, on average, over the past three months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/10372654-76f0-4d29-8cbc-79c91386ed1d/Canada+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Earnings revisions are positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e81217c8-cc34-4d1b-8681-e3463a99110e/China+Chart+1+High+Yield+Credit+Spread+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: EM High-yield credit spreads have retreated, and levels are still relatively low. This indicates that investors aren’t yet anticipating a significant financial disruption. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/33e8edb2-9034-4ff3-adad-c514f39aa4ce/China+Forward+PE+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10a: China’s Forward P/E remains near historically low levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d98bbab6-35aa-4950-b151-d14b6aea839a/France+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: French 10-year rates have rolled over, but relative to Germany, they are still elevated, which is a headwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2f52da5d-f405-4b11-8bbe-2ea67ccee358/Germany+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Germany’s Forward P/E is back to the long-term average. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/05c5491e-8869-45c6-9e01-8329f2878945/Japan+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Japan’s Economic Surprise Index indicates that expectations are still too optimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/97ca94a2-83f5-4d29-883f-0a01849ecba9/Switzerland+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Breadth continues to deteriorate in Euro Area equity markets. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8117f4b0-3bec-4414-be09-893dbc1083bb/Canada+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Earnings revisions are trending positively. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-september-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-09-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b9b4fb7d-559e-41f5-8bcf-d99df413b7af/Catastrophic+Stop+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index. The model’s decline was due to the Short-Term Trend, U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength, High Yield OAS, and Baltic Dry Index Factors shifting to negative levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8c4500ec-cd61-4c7b-93b3-3ee76b4838a9/Short-term+Trend+Factor+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Short-term Trend Factor is hovering around neutral levels. A decisive move in either direction would quickly be reflected in the overall model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/81830d64-68f3-430a-8258-f5061161ec31/Stock+Bond+Relative+Strength+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength Factor also reversed to a sell signal. The previous buy signal had been in place since November 17, 2023. When bonds evidence relative strength, it has historically been a good indication that the demand for equities is transitioning to a more risk-off or defensive posture. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8f5dc424-1510-4f6e-9b57-bc7b5ec76b08/High+Yield+OAS+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The same holds true for our measures of credit spreads. For example, high-yield OAS could quickly reverse to bullish levels. Even though the indicator has generated a sell signal, it wouldn’t take much to reverse it. The High-yield OAS moving averages have ticked higher but are still at historically low levels. This indicates that the financial markets are behaving relatively normally. A spike higher would be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/43226049-bc13-4915-9653-40dfa0e6af82/Baltic+Dry+Index+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Economic activity has declined slightly, but real GDP growth is still positive overall. The Baltic Dry Index Factor has moved moderately lower (chart above). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/817511c8-8d88-4a08-aef2-338c8c3561c8/Return+Decomposition+around+First+Rate+Cut+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: All first rate cuts since 1954. The “average” suggests a positive tilt. However, it’s not a perfect indicator. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/94fbdcd3-7c08-4015-bfa4-7790658c73ba/Return+Decomposition+BEFORE+RECESSION+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The observations around two “first rate cuts” before recessions showed EPS getting crushed but P/Es expanding significantly. Again, we don’t see this type of scenario currently in play, or likely. Nonetheless, if our economic indicators shift radically negatively, we will adjust accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/00130a8c-3070-430b-89c7-bfac13d36ef7/Earnings+Model+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The Earnings Model is neutral. Historically, earnings have grown when the model has been in this zone. Note: The model includes diverse measures of Industrial Production, yield curves, PMIs, credit spreads, earnings momentum, and estimate revisions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0a6b382b-315d-4587-9ef8-ccda1042970e/Consumer+Discretionary+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Earnings surprises are negative for consumer discretionary stocks, but we are monitoring to see if the latest improvement is marking a low. We require more evidence. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/27f19fae-fc00-45cd-b59d-06e8e4469159/Consumer+Staples+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Economic weakness eventually benefits defensive areas of the market. To date, the economic backdrop is still positive and growing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9af42dc8-abc2-473f-9b08-c71ab7855fd6/Communication+Services9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Earnings revisions are also rolling over for the Communication Services sector. Nonetheless, the sector’s earnings growth expectations for 2025 is currently 15.6%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2b548e51-eeb4-4dfd-b17e-945688f0a399/Energy+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: The Energy sector’s relative cash flow yield is reversing from lows, a positive occurrence. Should the overall model improve, we will add to the position. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a1964cfb-86ee-4d42-80ed-44022d0d9681/Financials+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Financial institutions’ investment-grade OAS are ticking higher. We’re monitoring closely for signs that credit quality is getting worse. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e1da1748-3f7d-4070-b25c-826848eadfa3/Health+Care+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Breadth has improved from deeply oversold levels but is now approaching overbought levels and is showing signs of reversing. This has historically been a headwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/379f2cbd-e935-4328-a121-dd202d310e10/Industrials+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Relative price momentum is now approaching overbought levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aae90684-ed49-4517-b3ab-67b7ab845d52/Information+Technology+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 16: The Information Technology sector OBOS indicator is back into overbought territory. A reversal below the lower bracket would generate a sell signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/81c7c7ca-6c4e-4171-9258-5fd7a22cf568/Materials+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 17: The Materials sector price is reversing from a short-lived overbought condition. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7017ad9a-1017-4091-bec9-fbb2dd60f195/Real+Estate+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 18: Business credit conditions are starting to roll over. A decline below -1 would be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1e58ea3e-25ad-421c-b139-1cbf022eb7bb/Utilities+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 19: Relative breadth (based on a 50-day measure) had reversed from oversold lows and is now in overbought territory. These types of indicators can stay overbought for longer periods. However, when they reverse and begin moving back toward oversold, it is usually a sign that the sector is under relative pressure. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-september-03-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-09-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7e723e50-8ff5-43a6-b649-ebef259957cf/Catastrophic+Stop+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 3, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model’s indicators have moved more toward neutral levels (a decline below 40% for two consecutive days generates a sell signal). This sets the model up to latch on to the next major trend. The model’s decline over the past month was primarily due to the Short-Term Trend, U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength, High Yield OAS, and Baltic Dry Index Factors shifting to negative levels (charts below). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/935e5dd5-49e9-41c6-b545-b5aeca53dac4/Short-term+Trend+Factor+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: The Short-term Trend Factor is hovering around neutral levels. A decisive move in either direction would quickly be reflected in the overall model. The short-term MA is sitting right on top of the longer-term MA. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ab5303ea-c1d0-493a-8ce8-babc5e8e5141/Stock+Bond+Relative+Strength+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength Factor also reversed to a sell signal. The previous buy signal had been in place since November 17, 2023. When bonds evidence relative strength, it has historically been a good indication that the demand for equities is transitioning to a more risk-off or defensive posture. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cdde62a3-ef99-4ec6-ba91-f6f02543609a/High+Yield+OAS+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The same holds true for our measures of credit spreads. For example, high-yield OAS could quickly reverse to bullish levels. Even though the indicator has generated a sell signal, it wouldn’t take much to reverse it. The High-yield OAS moving averages have ticked higher but are still at historically low levels. This indicates that the financial markets are behaving relatively normally. A spike higher would be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/55ec6ac4-2a33-42a2-9613-0452d33d9395/Baltic+Dry+Index+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The Baltic Dry Index Factor shows that global economic activity (international trade) has declined slightly, but real U.S. GDP growth is positive overall. The Baltic Dry Index Factor has moved moderately lower, confirming the recent message from global PMIs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a558020f-1de6-4310-9d6e-0ea9dcbe4a8d/Global+Purchasing+Manager+Index+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Global PMIs indicate that manufacturing is still struggling while services-related businesses are holding up. The results confirm our view that economic growth is decelerating but positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b69c6414-74f4-40de-bdfb-f7d502009cdd/Daily+Sentiment+Composite+through+8-5-2024+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Below are two charts featuring the Daily Trading Sentiment Composite. The first shows the model through the market low on August 5. The Composite had declined into the Excessive Pessimism zone. We wrote at the time, “Short-term sentiment composite is now in the excessive pessimism zone. Likely to be lower after today. If the sell-off is indeed overdone, this indicator should start showing improvement soon (i.e., a return toward optimism).” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/21122e5f-e6f5-429f-9f07-144b371b7434/Daily+Sentiment+Composite+through+8-5-2024+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Below is the updated Composite. As you can see, the model reversed nicely. However, we are closing in on levels denoting Excessive Optimism. A move above 62.5% would likely indicate short-term headwinds are in place and require a period of consolidation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/06e8ec12-a569-4cbf-8d2d-446b18766851/Consumer+Staples+SS+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Economic weakness eventually benefits defensive areas of the market. To date, the economic backdrop is still positive but decelerating. The short-term hiccup due to fears around economic activity earlier in the month boosted Staples for a short time. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0f8109a6-6c5d-4955-9081-c653ecb1a41e/Information+Technology+SS+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The Information Technology sector OBOS indicator is back into overbought territory. A reversal below the lower bracket would generate a sell signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/612c00be-3937-4bea-97d2-b266cc827e7d/Energy+Sector+SS+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: The Energy sector's relative cash flow yield is reversing from lows, a positive occurrence. Should the overall model improve, we will add to the position. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/690f8534-1055-4adf-8878-9d873ae87e0c/Cycle+Composite+9-3.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update September 3, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2024 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-what-we-saw-and-what-we-are-watching monthly 0.5 2024-09-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1724941303393-7NMHUM4WUXPIV73YK00B/day-hagan-tech-talk-08.29.2024-1200x627px-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: What We Saw and What We Are Watching - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7bd0905a-2937-4525-8be4-98ba7d58dd43/sml.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: What We Saw and What We Are Watching - Make it stand out Figure 1: Performance Past 5 Trading Days. | The equity market’s reaction to NVDA’s EPS report will affect these figures and, more importantly, provide a good tell. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/05e4730c-b8e5-4f33-b5e9-e136c956b6bb/spx-acwx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: What We Saw and What We Are Watching - Make it stand out Figure 2: Global Advance-Decline Line and Global vs. U.S. Relative Strength Trend. | Global strategies should be considered because overseas opportunities exist. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/88d07940-db4b-40d4-956e-52ec9cc8ad46/ust30y.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: What We Saw and What We Are Watching - Make it stand out Figure 3: Interest Rates. | Completed and/or looming tops suggest focusing on green support lines. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/00f9a1ca-5058-425d-aa09-7429c0bc49c6/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: What We Saw and What We Are Watching - Make it stand out Figure 4: S&P 500 with rising 21-day MA. | Please refer to the verbiage above and inside the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/911c2b61-fc55-486f-81fb-5712e28d4980/smh-spy.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: What We Saw and What We Are Watching - Make it stand out Figure 5: Semiconductor proxy vs. S&P 500 proxy. | Please see verbiage inside the chart. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-august-27-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-08-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/365e4f73-f23d-41d7-bd32-7d2092fc9913/Cat+Stop+Model+8-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 27, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model moved lower but is still in positive territory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/81ade354-1a44-4c37-b8a6-92f107a3b742/Short+Term+Trend+Factor+8-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 27, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Short-term Trend indicators are hovering around neutral levels. A decisive move in either direction should quickly be reflected in the overall model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a462085d-5a59-480d-af3e-3c1e2e781029/High+Yield+OAS+8-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 27, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The High-yield OAS moving averages have ticked higher but are still at historically low levels. Indicates that the financial markets are behaving relatively normally. A spike higher would be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7c09eac7-5a0f-4515-95b8-b7610293b597/OAS+8-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 27, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Daily OAS for High Yield, IG Corporates, Mortgage-Backed Securities, and U.S. Agencies have moved lower following the July 16-August 5 equity market decline. This is constructive for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0c24bd2b-7b9a-4e54-9d92-db48fd106a0b/Momentum+Reversals+8-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 27, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Short-term momentum is currently supportive, but now at levels where a reversal would quickly shift the indicator to a sell signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f4f1fc97-65a0-49d3-973c-57fbe3f14423/sp500-index-vs-citigroup-us-economic-surprise-index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 27, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Economic indicators calling U.S. activity continue to miss expectations. This needs to be reversed for a significant new leg higher. In Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole, he noted that the labor market had clearly slowed, and the current level of the policy rate provided ample room to respond to greater-than-expected labor market weakness if needed. This seemed to confirm that rate cuts are on the table, with the first likely happening in September. Last week, the 2-year Treasury yield declined by 13 bps (to 3.92%), while the 10-year Treasury yield declined by eight bps to 3.80%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/77123ba9-bc61-48b0-9518-e53994ea62d7/Retunr+Decomposition+around+first+rate+cut+8-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 27, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: All first rate cuts since 1954. The “average” suggests a positive tilt. However, it’s not a perfect indicator. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ab2ac9a4-6c8f-42a6-ba1b-8c0faa45010e/First+Rate+Cuts+before+recessions+8-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 27, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The two “first rate cuts” before recessions showed EPS getting crushed but P/Es expanding strongly. Again, we don’t see this type of scenario currently in play, or likely. Nonetheless, if our economic indicators shift to a radically negative stance, we will adjust accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/72f8a798-e632-43fc-9d19-1e2ef68a06c7/Earnings+Model+8-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 27, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The Earnings Model is neutral. Historically, earnings have grown when the model has been in this zone. Note: The model includes diverse measures of Industrial Production, yield curves, PMIs, credit spreads, earnings momentum, and estimate revisions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/607d9a69-aa43-4115-931f-edf803d9a96c/10+to1+Up+Day+8-26.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 27, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Last week’s Update mentioned that a 10:1 Up-Day occurred on 8-8-2024. We posited that a confirming 10:1 Up-Day would be bullish. A second 10:1 Up Day reading was generated on 8-23-2024. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-into-the-weekend-and-beyond monthly 0.5 2024-08-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1724424861256-PXP6DC770QVFBB5CJDNN/day-hagan-tech-talk-08.23.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Into the Weekend and Beyond - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/760069dc-4784-41a9-870a-d263fb589ce8/s-and-p-500-year-to-date-performance.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Into the Weekend and Beyond - Make it stand out Figure 1: Year-to-Date Performance. | Through 8/22/24 and not adjusted for dividends. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f867070b-ad0f-465a-a15c-02c28af65153/s-and-p-index-around-first-fed-rate-cut.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Into the Weekend and Beyond - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 Index Around First Fed Rate Cuts vs. Speed of Cut. | Eventually, fast easing cycles have been less friendly for stocks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/de12d460-c59f-43e7-9fbb-7ff828009cdb/s-and-p-500-large-cap-index.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Into the Weekend and Beyond - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 – year to date chart. | Resistance highlighted in red; support in green and blue. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a8203b1f-216f-455b-ba50-a2fd9271f7d7/gaso.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Into the Weekend and Beyond - Make it stand out Figure 4: Gasoline and Crude Oil – Continuous Contract. | Much closer to support (green lines) than resistance (red lines). The time to stabilize/bounce is now. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f088bbe2-d0ef-4d14-9a88-fcf65dc0e2d6/sphb-splv.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Into the Weekend and Beyond - Make it stand out Figure 5: High Beta vs. Low Volatility and Momentum vs. Dividend proxies. | Falling lines depict outperformance by risk-off proxies, Low Volatility and Dividend, and vice versa. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-august-20-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-08-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f628495b-162a-4ad7-a655-d314e7eb9e4e/Catastrophic+Stop+Model+8-20.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 20, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model is neutral. A decline below 40% for two consecutive days would generate a sell signal. Currently, it continues to recommend a fully invested position. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3e9fdebe-0876-4cdc-80b7-90ef449ab442/Daily+Sentiment+8-20.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 20, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment has reversed from the excessive pessimism lows seen on August 8th (the market low was on the 5th). If the sentiment composite moves above 62.5, we’d then view it as unfavorable. It currently resides at 48.9. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9bc5646e-0ca9-4da5-83aa-7d50a63d2243/TRIN+Indicators+8-20.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 20, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Following up from last week’s Update, the 20-day and 40-day TRIN measures still haven’t flipped to buy signals, but they are heading in the right direction. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/40bc4f23-716c-4183-9d79-02ebd2012a95/Three+Year+Treasury+Note+8-20.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 20, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The Three-Year Treasury Note Yield’s magnitude of decline over the past 26 weeks has historically been bullish for equities. The bond market is currently doing the Fed’s job. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b91a07a7-4717-412e-ab21-e22a0d32dc3f/Continuous+Commodity+Index+8-20.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 20, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Waning commodity pressures are also constructive for equity performance. (As long as the weaker commodity complex is due to increased supply or supply-chain pressures easing, not the result of economic weakness.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3628e07b-ed67-4ba0-87f2-7a67238d09e9/Stocks+above+10-day+Moving+Average+8-20.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 20, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: There was a mini breadth thrust following the August 5th lows. As you can see in the chart below, most of the buy signals have been followed by continued market gains. The latest buy signal occurred on 8-19-2024. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/17e3f576-f24f-4b78-a100-ee4b6fcf8d20/10+to+1+Up+Day+8-20.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 20, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: A 10:1 Up Day (advancing volume more than 10x declining volume) occurred on 8-8-2024. A confirming 10:1 Up Day would be bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2ebfee2f-90b4-4289-a536-3c1bd38e823b/Services+PMI+8-20.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 20, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Services PMI for the U.S. still in expansion territory. The consensus is for a slight decline to 54. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e83e6ec6-c429-4127-b101-92933f46c1c4/Manufacturing+PMI+8-20.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 20, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Manufacturing PMI is still struggling to get above 50. The consensus is for a slight increase to 49.7. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b649deb5-85de-4e89-a5f8-e6e00cfb9e5d/Economic+Surprise+Index+8-20.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 20, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: On average, U.S. economic releases are still coming in below expectations. Our view is that for the markets to move appreciably higher, this will need to shift positively. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-fluidy monthly 0.5 2024-08-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d070fac7-98be-4561-a206-82bba274c087/day-hagan-tech-talk-08.13.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Fluidity - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1b94d568-b5b7-4bd1-a29f-8b7b0f360591/spx-five-hundred-w-rising-two-hundred-day-ma.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Fluidity - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | Focus on gap resistance between 5384 and 5411 and potential retest of support. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4fcc9276-7858-404f-8f56-80f8b3c09bc9/spx-one-month-chart.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Fluidity - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 – 1 month. | Very short-term; use support (green) and resistance (red) accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4fd9d40c-c467-49fb-ab67-fe0ca501795d/nasdaq-vs-djia.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Fluidity - Make it stand out Figure 3: NASDAQ (large cap growth) vs. DJIA (large cap non-growth). If growth and technology is going to start outperforming non-growth, it’s in the vicinity where it “should” occur. If it doesn’t occur… https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/293fd1f7-9547-4bb4-99fa-9e03b67b6b98/growth-vs-value.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Fluidity - Make it stand out Figure 4: Vanguard Growth proxy vs. Vanguard Value proxy. | As market volatility has picked up, risk appetite has softened. As with Figure 3, however, if Growth is going to pick up again and start outperforming, it needs to start soon/now! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8d52d35f-45b1-4cfe-8929-a0014fca26a3/dollar-to-yen.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Fluidity - Make it stand out Figure 5: U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen. | It should be especially interesting to see how resistance, highlighted in red and blue, and any retest of support, highlighted in green, are handled. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-august-13-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5b4a270b-ed4e-47ab-8ba5-6f45bb8e957c/Catastrophic+Stop+8-13.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 13, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model is neutral. A decline below 40% for two consecutive days would generate a sell signal. Currently, it continues to recommend a fully invested position. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/11d804c8-a8e9-45ca-9cd4-ecf719039237/Stock+Bond+Relative+Strength+8-13.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 13, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: When bonds evidence relative strength, it has historically been a good indication that the demand for equities is transitioning to a more risk-off posture. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7c07e1fc-aa45-4a74-b599-9cbef3072059/Sentiment+Composite+8-13.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 13, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Short-term sentiment measures indicate the market has worked off some of the froth. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4b4de744-f3aa-47ec-b43c-5c6608308c03/TRIN+8-13.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 13, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: TRIN indicators (comparing upside volume to downside volume over various time frames) showed that the selling has been significant enough to set these up for buy signals. We require a reversal back through the upper band to signal that selling is decelerating and/or reversing. The shortest-term measure, the 10-day TRIN, has reversed to a buy signal. The 20- and 40-day have not yet confirmed but are heading in the right direction. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d07e9185-6c0b-4f44-8ff8-1c94eb6c80a3/McClellan+Summation+8-13.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 13, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Longer-term measures of oversold are still neutral. For example, the McClellan Summation Index provides long-term buy signals when the oscillator falls below -3450 (or indicates a breadth thrust with a move above 0). It hasn’t triggered either signal since the October 12, 2022, bottom. We use several similar indicators to identify major lows. So far, none have declined enough to do so. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cea97e6b-8346-4298-bb59-2d5c5e0887c7/PPI+8-13.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 13, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The latest PPI (Producer Price Inflation) report is consistent with a moderate disinflation stance. The chart below illustrates that equities tend to appreciate when the PPI y/y change is between -0.28% and +4.47%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c0aaadb2-71cf-43af-9d55-a4a8ae7a28ef/Core+CPI+8-13.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 13, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Looking at Core CPI and some of the components influencing the result, you can see that the Core CPI (less food and energy), commodities (less food and energy), and services (less food and energy), have all been moving lower (disinflationary). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a25468fe-a0bf-4e08-9017-e36fd4b3b806/Credit+Card+Delinquincy+8-13.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 13, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Several measures of lower-end consumer health are deteriorating. (Home Depot’s earnings report was another indication that consumers are delaying purchases due to economic uncertainty.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b3080d2d-8c06-4121-92d8-80661e2e9413/Economic+Surprise+Index+8-13.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 13, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: The U.S. Economic Surprise Index shows that economic releases over the past three months have been coming in below expectations. A move above 0 would indicate that economic reports are once again beating expectations and that analyst expectations have been recalibrated. When this occurs, along with short-term oversold conditions in place, we would expect a resumption of the uptrend. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-debby monthly 0.5 2024-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1723053965820-OHTG4QXJ83I1PEOZHT4Z/day-hagan-tech-talk-08.07.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Debby - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4d0d21ba-f86a-4a36-8412-424877904074/average-number-of-corrections-per-year.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Debby - Make it stand out Figure 1: Stock Market Corrections. | Sometimes investors forget that volatility in both directions is part of the process and shouldn’t come as a surprise. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ba8c8b44-e889-4e62-ae8b-4d6ab13de6a7/spx-with-bb.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Debby - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with Bollinger Bands (2 standard deviations above and below 50-day MA). | One visual showing an OS condition. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/42523a59-692e-4534-bc46-a7029a39c2f0/Figure+3%3A+S%26P+500.+%7C+Please+use+Monday%E2%80%99s+intraday+low+%285119%29+as+an+initial+support+level.+More+importantly%2C+how+does+SPX+handle+resistance%2C+depicted+by+the+levels+highlighted+in+red. Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Debby - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500. | Please use Monday’s intraday low (5119) as an initial support level. More importantly, how does SPX handle resistance, depicted by the levels highlighted in red. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0c3dab38-b7c1-48eb-90ea-1e106d13a65d/djia.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Debby - Make it stand out Figure 4: Dow Jones Industrial Average. | Support held where it needed to—green uptrend line. The big test will come as resistance (selling pressure) is encountered—highlighted in red. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5ff2e6f1-c907-4f47-bfa8-7a572e2173d9/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Debby - Make it stand out Figure 5: Small Cap proxies. | Support, defined by a rising 200-day MA, held where it needed to. Please respect the support (green arrows) and resistance (red circles/lines) levels highlighted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7e82457a-5eec-481e-8982-e4e7c5a781b1/tnx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Debby - Make it stand out Figure 6: CBOE 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Index (TNX). | After having obsessed over the pattern of lower peaks and lower troughs, implying lower interest rates, for the past 4+ weeks, now is the time to focus on support. I think the move lower by interest rates is about done for now. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-august-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-08-07 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-august-052024 monthly 0.5 2024-08-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d5d8feff-4064-4581-8948-a2651fad2479/Catastrophic+Stop+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model moved lower but is still in positive territory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f741cd9a-b582-4861-90e6-2611cf83c6fa/ACWI+Breadth+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Breadth back to levels seen at the previous market lows. This is not unexpected, given the quick reversal in small-cap relative performance. This indicator tends to move rapidly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/26ce0a1b-9ee7-4eb7-909b-d83ce9a43aad/Baltic+Dry+Index+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Economic activity has declined slightly, but overall, real GDP growth is still positive. The Baltic Dry Index Factor has moved moderately lower (chart above). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2d6bab20-b0c7-49e7-9aa2-831cfeb6a96a/High+Yield+Option+adjusted+spread+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Credit spreads have widened alongside the market’s weakness. However, spreads are still tight relative to history. Note the moves seen in 2020 and 2022 for reference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/26dad3e8-9c16-416d-9c4a-6eb05b4a63ba/Sp500+Information+Technology+Sector+Internal+Composite+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The Information Technology Internal Composite is neutral. If breadth, momentum, and/or OBOS indicators reverse, causing the model to improve, we will react accordingly. Conversely, if the model moves lower, we’ll continue to reduce exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/58fb626d-4c97-4f0a-ad6c-830521dee66b/Sp500+Information+Technology+Sector+Relative+Strength+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: We’ve featured this indicator before. It represents what we’re seeing from an OBOS perspective for the tech sector. A reversal from the oversold lows would provide short-term support for adding exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d218b70e-2c2e-4a20-87ab-59c28e8aab72/Daily+Sentiment+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The most receFigure 7: Short-term sentiment composite is now in the excessive pessimism zone. Likely to be lower after today. If the sell-off is indeed overdone, this indicator should start showing improvement soon (i.e., a return toward optimism). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/532ebd59-f951-4830-876c-8f645c2a34a0/SP500+daily+sentiment+DSI+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: If today's levels hold, the sentiment of non-professional retail traders will also move into the excessive pessimism zone, confirming the previous chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/72e0a62b-2b5a-4b62-ab2f-e5d9118b6eb0/TRIN+indicators+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: TRIN indicators (comparing upside volume to downside volume over various time frames) show that the selling has been significant enough to set these up for buy signals. We require a reversal back through the upper band to signal that selling is decelerating and/or reversing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cad23c3b-8a17-4a24-8a0f-c8f5855af702/McClellan+Summation+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The McClellan Summation Index provides long-term buy signals when the oscillator falls below -3450 (or indicates a breadth thrust with a move above 0). It hasn’t triggered either signal since the October 12, 2022, bottom. We use several similar indicators to identify major lows. So far, none have declined enough to do so. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b859d086-e091-4dad-88ee-74612a78c7a8/10-week+AD+Line+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Like the McClellan Summation Oscillator above, the 10-week A/D Diffusion Index shows that advancing issues and declining issues over the past 10 weeks have been relatively matched. A move below 38 would provide bullish support (i.e., intense oversold conditions). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1b900d49-b135-4e25-9aec-6561bf5fc7a0/Percentage+of+stocks+above+200+day+MA+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: From a simplicity perspective, looking at only 200-day moving averages, when the number of stocks above their respective 200-day moving averages falls below 42% and then rises back above that level, it has provided bullish support. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0eab8f9c-7568-482c-8c8e-30217f75b2ab/Degraff+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Of course, if a couple of our favorite breadth thrust indicators generate buy signals, it would be bullish and confirm that the uptrend is ready to start a new leg higher. Below is the deGraaf Thrust Indicator. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/14810c3a-3222-435d-b07a-12865c6292b7/Zweig+thrust+indicator+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 14: The Zweig Thrust Indicator uses advances and declines to determine major oversold conditions. A drop below 40 and then a reversal above that level would be bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/53941c5c-affd-4a41-9504-82cb2e3d7577/sp500-index-vs-momentum-reversals.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Bottom Line: For major lows, we want to see reversals from levels denoting intense selling, excessive pessimism, and short-term momentum measures flip from “sell” to “buy.” Historically, this set of conditions has provided high-probability buy opportunities. Below is an example of one of our preferred short-term momentum reversal indicators. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/891a3fbd-5bb6-4e9f-b8eb-b7ef43a5d3fa/Growth+and+Inflation+regimes+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6ca952d6-91fa-4b36-a608-a37a49730710/Economic+Timing+Model+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 17: The Economic Timing Model continues to reside in the Moderate Growth zone. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9a893121-292c-4412-bd69-1999900945e2/ndr-inflation-timing-model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 18: The Inflation Timing Model is in the Moderate Disinflation zone but heading toward Neutral. We believe inflation is not likely to spike higher without an exogenous event. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e193f904-c90e-4a93-8142-23c8bbd25667/feds-funds-futures-yield-curve.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 19: Rate cuts are coming. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/796734a0-51d8-4e40-bffa-fc80983e6e7f/6-month+Forward+Spread+8-5.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update August 5, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 20: The 6-month Implied Forward Treasury Bill rate implies 110 bps of potential easing. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-august-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-08-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2affdcbb-8f9e-42c7-8d37-3c486350f6f5/Catastrophic+Stop+8-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7698ed19-b97c-40da-9453-2b109c75fbc5/Breadth+of+Central+Bank+Changes+8-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Broad-based Central Bank Rate cuts are constructive for bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/544a1d27-d414-4bd1-a5c4-e93523875d69/Treasuries+8-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Inflation expectations continue to move lower. Bullish for bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/107cb776-5216-4344-8f58-b91cb6ad44a4/TIPS+Inflation+Timing+Model+8-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Since 1962, when the Inflation Timing model signaled moderate disinflation, the CPI Index has declined at a 1.01% annualized rate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/538fff3d-4e15-4246-a05f-bc6a01d1f9d5/US+Mortgage+Backed+8-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Mortgage-backed spreads are ticking higher, though still below the long-term average. This indicates that the MBS markets are functioning normally despite the housing deceleration. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/43b12b28-6720-4850-b98c-e82f9dee0a81/US+Floating+Rate+8-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Momentum for U.S. Floating Rate Securities is still rated negative but may be finding support. We are looking for technical confirmation before adding exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/db26548d-f47f-4760-9290-a6abcf48affa/US+IG+Corporates+8-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Lower credit default swap costs, indicating growing investor confidence. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c596b7a8-dc61-4454-98e3-2014b9d184e4/US+High+Yield+8-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Small-cap equity performance often leads high yield fixed income performance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/582a8c61-acd0-463a-83b5-bb5d99f9bac3/International+Treasury+8-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Inflation extremes have moderated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a722f396-878b-4601-8c25-824b2d78636d/Emerging+Market+Bonds+8-3.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Weaker commodity pricing is good for the inflation outlook but negative for EM fixed income as Emerging Markets equity indexes are positively correlated with commodity prices. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-august-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-08-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/712dd8f4-b55a-447f-a3e1-40a4bce08852/Catastrophic+Stop+8-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2167699e-070a-4120-9603-2d8b47538258/Global+Recession+Probability+8-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Global Recession Probability Model indicates risks rising but not yet crossing important thresholds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1511a7cf-ccaa-4f3e-b6e0-4515dfdf48e5/Global+Purchasing+Manager+Indexes+8-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global Purchasing Manager Index still in expansion territory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/19985796-a990-4c91-a2de-5a9fb63541e4/Australia+8-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Trend indicators are reversing from very oversold levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a9b11f66-0034-46a1-85de-cc40f5f87ce7/Canada+8-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Earnings revisions are positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1bc0c1a8-0295-4070-8457-b3f2abcdbb4f/China+8-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: EM High-yield credit spreads ticked higher, but levels are still relatively low. This indicates investors aren’t yet anticipating a significant financial disruption. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2bdb941e-db2f-4cbb-bef9-09ef711d2ae2/China+Foward+PE+8-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6a: China’s Forward P/E is nearing historically low levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3043f12a-8fca-4b16-8a58-68829bb6f43c/France+8-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: French 10-year rates have rolled over, but relative to Germany, they are still elevated, which is a headwind. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/472fc7f2-4cb2-4001-ba2c-6ff43bb4fc82/Germany+8-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Investors have been exiting Europe-related ETFs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/03b5217a-c3eb-4f48-bc0f-f20ec53c0b87/Japan+8-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Japan’s Economic Surprise Index indicates that expectations are still too optimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6f565064-cd82-4ae1-8844-3fe695957f87/msci-europe-ex-uk-relative-strength.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Breadth is deteriorating around Euro Area equity markets. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8d66489f-619e-4f07-bd49-19a0f224e92f/UK+Sentiment+8-2.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Two months ago, we first featured the sentiment chart below. We noted that a reversal from lower levels, confirmed by short-term trend indicators, would be positive. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-august-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-08-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/19344fc2-001e-4b8b-a608-8d541b188941/Catastrophic+Stop+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/32af197b-cd67-440a-8765-8da4148b8036/ACWI+Breadth+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: ACWI Breadth Factor illustrates better participation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a479a24-0f29-4e7b-b275-88c3957d17fa/Daily+Sentiment+Composite+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: The NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite is now evidencing excessive pessimism. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1ef2dcc3-5dcd-410e-af47-0d275ce41acc/Percentage+of+SP500+Stocks+Outperforming+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The percentage of stocks outperforming the S&P 500 YTD is still just 34.6%, even after the small-cap rally in July. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8b2109a8-80f1-4918-8516-a5425c42f4c6/OAS+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: OAS for Corporates, High Yield, Mortgages, and Agencies remain below long-term averages. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0ffa77a1-99a0-4ca8-a4b5-a2b63967e89d/Consumer+Discretionary+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Earnings surprises have turned negative for consumer discretionary stocks, urging caution. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/61497ad0-e649-4ca6-ae72-87f30edf7db7/Consumer+Staples+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Economic weakness eventually benefits defensive areas of the market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a17d261-b200-4e1c-8bb2-3420d787d89e/Communication+Services+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Earnings revisions are also rolling over for the Communication Services sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/696fd385-adac-4022-b1f5-41d250a9878a/Energy+Inventories+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Inventories are approaching the low levels that have historically been associated with support. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/99e10567-9ea2-40b7-92aa-8046a17399c9/Financials+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: The Financials sector has rebounded from the oversold conditions highlighted in last month’s Update. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/62a0a4be-4a84-43b6-9ece-e41f7617a982/Health+Care+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Health Care sector breadth is improving from deeply oversold levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4b4e043d-2343-4b78-852e-e8cdb0491774/Industrials+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Momentum starting to reverse from oversold levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1108bac5-475f-4b8c-9775-0494f6573f13/Information+Technology+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Go with the flow until it reaches an extreme and reverses. This particular OBOS indicator flipped to a sell signal when the 10-day rate of change declined below the top bracket, causing us to reduce exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8dcbcaa6-b8b8-4d43-9314-6822e719bef4/Materials+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Industrial Production for materials is one of the few indicators on a buy signal for the materials sector. If more technical improvement occurs and raises the Composite model, we’ll add exposure. But until then, we will stay in line with the model’s message. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/308183fc-4270-4e58-85bc-7764d2334c8d/Real+estate+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 15: Breadth is improving, but it is not yet on a buy signal. Over the preceding three weeks, most of the improvement was from heavily shorted names. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e4dc9e53-e0b6-4be5-a7a1-e3b235a4c575/Utilities+8-1.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update August 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 16: The Utilities sector has a negative correlation to U.S. Manufacturing PMI trends. (Higher PMIs = stronger economy = potentially higher interest rates = competition for yield-sensitive investors holding utility stocks.) https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-july-30-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-07-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0bf73941-0825-4f52-a5a6-ac7922d3c9a7/Catastrophic+Stop+Model+7-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 30, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model remains in positive territory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ca18898d-0afc-4123-9376-2cbbc5d35b6e/US+Real+GDP.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Real GDP year/year growth is within the 5-year range (+/- 1 SD). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e72b18e1-317f-4877-988e-d1e75403e794/Selected+Inventories.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Inventory-to-sales ratios have recovered post-pandemic but aren’t yet deemed excessive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c146c4de-ab41-4a22-8739-b69c86fca3fc/Earnings+revisions+table.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Earnings estimate revisions for the 2H of 2024 and 2025 have moved slightly lower over the past four weeks. This isn’t unusual. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fa644529-7e3d-46d9-b8ef-d425ef271cf8/Personal+Consumption+Expenditures.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The Inflation Timing model continues to reside in the “Low Inflationary Pressures” zone, though it has been moving higher. The chart below features the model calling the PCE year/year change, with the conclusion being that inflation is still in a downtrend. (We’d also note that higher inventories are relatively disinflationary for commodities and, therefore, inflation.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/48ba26f6-c666-40c3-90cc-2911a9b1e2fb/Daily+Sentiment+Composite+7-30.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Sentiment is approaching levels that have been constructive for equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d472147-8028-4eb7-95d0-d36bfb23cebe/Info+Tech+Sector+Supply+vs+Demand.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Demand still outpacing supply for the Information Technology sector, though the spread is narrowing. If the spread holds, then one would have to label the recent tech weakness as a correction that is unlikely to develop into a deeper decline. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6bdcc0e5-f7cd-45bc-b93e-2d07f01e0d4e/SP500+Supply+Demand.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Volume-adjusted demand for the S&P 500 actually spiked higher last week as breadth improved. This is a bullish underpinning within the Catastrophic Stop model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/311cd5c7-f43c-4f6c-9e0b-956314017a7d/6-month-implied-forward-treasury-bill-rate.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 30, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Rate cuts are on the way. This is bullish unless the accompanying statement reads, “One and done.” https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-july-23-2024 monthly 0.5 2025-03-26 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-july-23-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-07-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dd2cf079-bf72-4e69-addc-196b8f65739b/Catastrophic+Stop+7-23.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 23, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model remains positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aa80e2fc-9c65-4781-823b-87389485e925/Daily+Sentiment+Composite+7-23.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment back in the neutral zone. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1ee107c6-3d96-4efb-937c-3dc27f32d790/Return+Decomposition.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Multiple expansion has historically driven market gains after First Rate Cuts, increasing an average of 28.15%. Conversely, earnings have declined an average of -9.32% in the year following a First Rate Cut. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2418f0f9-3dbd-43b1-9850-cea2cc0c0bc9/Sector+Table+Earnings+Growth.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Earnings growth expectations are elevated for 2024 and 2025. This requires the U.S. and global economy to continue to grow. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b4651a30-313b-47c2-9409-a8d4cb0ccc92/Consumer+Discretionary+7-23.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Short-term price momentum has improved. Goldman Sachs notes that last week, according to their prime book, all sectors were net sold except Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cb579a2a-3160-4157-91ad-08172ae92d72/Measures+of+discretionary+consumer+spending.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Measures of discretionary consumer spending ticked higher in June https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6bb22bb4-35ab-4558-8c2f-8e33fda8d070/Retail+Sales.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: The most recent retail sales report was relatively good, ex-autos. High-ticket items are under pressure. We expect that a rate cut will initially unleash some pent-up demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/711df73c-0baa-4eed-9afe-c2615d8249ad/Inflation+Timing+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Inflation pressures slightly increasing due to better economic activity, banks becoming more willing to lend, and rates stabilizing. We’re monitoring closely, as our current outlook remains in the “Neutral Inflation Pressures” camp. We’ll keep you posted should inflationary pressures accelerate (which we don’t currently expect). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/50c00ae5-6cfa-4329-908a-2aa7a4153818/US+Real+GDP.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 23, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: U.S. Economic growth expected to remain near-trend. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-july-15-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-07-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3327d484-7c87-4df6-9228-98613059ccb3/Catastrophic+Stop+Model+7-16.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 15, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model remains positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/407e43e0-c877-4608-9475-53ff8f944a16/Sentiment+7-16.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Sentiment back in the Excessive Optimism zone. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4f263b80-1a95-44fe-864a-7e6973e1f48e/SP500+Decomposition+around+rate+cuts.jpg Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Multiple expansion has historically driven market gains after First Rate Cuts, increasing an average of 28.15%. Conversely, earnings have declined an average of -9.32% in the year following a First Rate Cut. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9d83558e-01d4-4cb4-abe3-4baf159064fa/SP500+Sector+Level+Forward+PE+7-16.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: S&P 500 sector Forward P/Es. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bd4ba028-3893-49ba-975a-a7bf9145025c/SP500+Trailing+12+month+PE.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: The S&P 500 isn’t cheap. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a726a493-e8aa-4658-bafc-8ee0408d308e/Earnings+growth+table+7-16.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Earnings growth expectations are elevated for 2024 and 2025. This requires the U.S. and global economy to continue to grow. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/50b7a82b-51ef-41ed-ad16-5041adb0a4cf/Fed+Funds+Futures+7-16.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Three rate cuts are now priced in for 2024, though the third cut has a probability of just above 50%. Next FOMC meetings: July 31 and September 18. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0c2bce8d-bce5-4905-89e6-ca32337317ca/Inflation+Timing+Model+7-16.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Inflationary pressures are abating. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d468800e-2a81-4aa0-b6ab-96e7077ac538/Economic+Timing+Model+7-16.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 15, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: U.S. economic growth is still positive and supportive of continued earnings growth https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-blind-squirrel-and-smart-sector-update-july-15-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-08-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/14c4f05b-1417-4be1-94bb-45773dc972b9/day-hagan-tech-talk-07.15.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Blind Squirrel and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0a2aef1a-fb5c-4e86-a10e-c3acdc3b2615/s-%26-P-500-%26-rising-200-day-ma.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Blind Squirrel and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500, S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, Russell 1000 Equal Weight (EQAL, large cap) | If you want to watch how the Index Movers and Non-Index Movers are doing without having to follow all the indices and proxies mentioned on page 1, consider these along with their respective areas of support (green lines—also see Figure 5) and resistance (red lines). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b013e6e1-811b-4a04-abd7-f1ae88b33338/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Blind Squirrel and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 2: Russell 2000 proxy with Momentum and Rising 30-week MA – weekly data. | Many times in the past I’ve shared the opinion that on any hints of lower interest rates this proxy would make a run at its 2021 price peaks—red lines. Unless support is broken (green lines) and last week’s breakout isn’t quickly reversed (a failed breakout), I am still of that opinion. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cf65c326-2b4e-4710-9c41-246bc9e2a1dc/breadth-of-central-bank-rate-changes.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Blind Squirrel and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 3: Breadth of Central Bank Rate Changes. | While it is not always a matter of things being “good” or “bad” (above or below the 50% level), many times it’s more prudent to ask, “are things getter better or worse?” This chart indicates things are getting better, a positive for fixed income (and equities). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5192118b-b0a5-4c77-969a-c89e034756a3/spbo.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Blind Squirrel and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 4: U.S. Corporate proxy (weekly chart, adjusted for dividends). | Relative strength trend (vs. AGG, top frame) and price trend (lower frame), each with a rising 40-week MA, are bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d439b24c-4bf4-4bfe-91f3-0634f0b1f959/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Blind Squirrel and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 5: S&P 500 with short-term moving averages. | In order to more easily discern initial underlying support, as opposed to Figure 1, please note the support levels shown by the green, orange, and blue lines. Note: While some may focus on last Thursday’s low of 5584.54 (closing)/5576.53 (intraday) as being critical support, I think those levels are too short-term. If you feel otherwise, please use whatever levels best support your risk management approach and/or positions. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-july-9-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-07-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5d513445-f190-46fd-9c85-b2736537602f/catastrophic-stop-model-sp500-total-return-index.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 9, 2024 Figure 1: The Catastrophic Stop model remains positive https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f69aa403-4933-4913-99f9-d735c2df4feb/high-yield-option.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 9, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Credit spreads are OK, but we’re watching closely as they have recently ticked higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ba5ac596-95d0-4483-aaca-1bb97ad05b61/high-yield-and-emerging-market-bond.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 9, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Positive breadth readings are evident within the High-Yield and Emerging-Market bond categories. A reversal to negative breadth and continued widening of OAS (shown above) would be a concern, causing the Catastrophic Stop model level to decline. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bf5940ef-1c4f-4913-8b8d-e11a787ac587/sp500-vs-ndr-daily-trading-sentiment.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 9, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Sentiment remains neutral. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/49cc8c58-adc1-4275-8dd6-18b320a2cf0f/after-one-year-spx.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 9, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: After one year without a 2% down day, the subsequent S&P 500 returns are mixed but lean positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b7624a88-8304-4ca3-824f-604cece46f32/ndr-global-recession-probability-model.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 9, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Figure 6: Global economic growth is OK, but some cracks are starting to appear. For example, Japan and Germany's annual GDP growth rates were negative through Q1 (both -0.2%), while the U.K. was just +0.3%, Euro Area +0.4%, and Canada +0.5%. The U.S. was +2.9%, China +5.3%, India +7.8%. A move above 30 would signal caution. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/959ac380-4300-4a5c-8c16-e3dc01ae0bfa/fed-funds-futures-yield-curve.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 9, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Rate cuts expected. The number and timing are still up in the air. We view the Fed as being past peak hawkishness, and that’s positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e65e4f95-605c-4ec9-b088-42387adb293c/sp500-index-around-first-fed-rate-cuts.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 9, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Whether the rate cut cycle ends up being a “fast” or “slow” cycle, the first few months after the first cut have been positive. (Internally, we’ve been discussing if this would be the catalyst for a blow-off top.) https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-large-cap-uptrend monthly 0.5 2024-07-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1720546562337-I6YOCJX78Z2LJCNSM09B/day-hagan-tech-talk-07.09.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Large Cap Uptrend and Points to Watch - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aab84d34-c862-4562-bfbf-b8256320263c/nyfang.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Large Cap Uptrend and Points to Watch - Make it stand out Figure 1: NYSE Fang Plus Index and Roundhill Magnificent Seven (Index Mover proxies). | Use the small thumbnail charts to the right to identify initial support levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0de8e80e-be6e-4387-b820-fb694c58b96b/nvda.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Large Cap Uptrend and Points to Watch - Make it stand out Figure 2: Select Magnificent 7 components – closing price charts. | Only highlighted select components because their downside support levels were more easily identifiable—green lines. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a157df6e-c8ef-4386-a3c8-d2d007cdcd01/comm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Large Cap Uptrend and Points to Watch - Make it stand out Figure 3: Year to Date Performance – S&P 500 (green bar) and S&P Macro Sectors (as of 7.5.24). | Please refer to the abovementioned “Bottom Line.” https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-july-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-07-08 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-july-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-07-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c6ab4104-3e2d-485d-8b3a-d53d930ea44e/Catastrophic+Stop.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e3082ccd-a194-4612-a5e5-ac1dcfb02edd/Central+Bank+Changes+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Breadth of Central Bank Rate Changes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9a7dea61-1787-422c-84ba-5086f9eb28d1/Treasuries+Economic+Surprise+Index+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: U.S. Economic Surprise Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8c7b0857-eaa1-4b2c-a6c1-9c8f82cb7505/Inflation+Timing+Model+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Since 1962, when the Inflation Timing model signaled moderate disinflation, the CPI Index has declined at a 1.0% annualized rate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3ad5efab-0e59-4ed5-87c0-9b59a78ed433/OAS+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Mortgage-backed spreads are ticking higher, though still below the long-term average. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f9b10811-d079-440b-a34c-83dddfc1b313/US+Floating+Rate+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Momentum for U.S. Floating Rate Securities is negative. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/22bef3ba-787e-4d0b-b91e-2cccf6cc74fe/US+IG+Realtive+Strength+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Relative Strength is improving from recent lows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5ffad7d3-15fa-4b40-98b6-50f201192e96/High+Yield+Small+Cap+Equity+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The Small-cap equity trend factor has reversed to a sell signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/61db04c1-a8f8-4834-813f-7ab3d865e518/International+Treasury+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Inflation trends are moderating globally. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/09d1389d-37bf-4f33-8a74-a16d0108bf5e/emerging-market-bonds-emerging-equity-momentum-07.02.2024.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Emerging Market equity momentum has rolled over. We have reduced exposure in response. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-july-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-07-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a48711a6-444e-4cdf-9d46-9c6c4acb8306/Catastrophic+Stop+7-24.jpg Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d37fc7b9-693a-4ff7-81ca-0afafa420456/Global+Recession+Probability+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Global Recession Probability Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5488e5f7-4672-4fa0-be87-72bb2ee92ed5/Global+Purchasing+Manager+Index+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global Purchasing Manager Index ticked higher https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/85d12b39-209d-49e2-8f27-e137a0cce51a/Austrailia+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Economic surprises over the past three months have generally been to the downside. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/88d47a1e-58ba-48b1-994c-163ccf603c8a/Canada+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Valuations are slightly below average based on Forward P/E. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e5dd4660-3507-4152-b52c-86c306fca37b/China+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: EM High-yield credit spreads ticked higher, but levels are still relatively low. This indicates investors aren’t anticipating a significant financial disruption. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7bc1c2be-e526-424d-8294-2be8807abd23/France+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Higher rates are a headwind for France. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/468c5d3b-ff7a-4cc8-b4d1-a212c4d181a4/Germany+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Business sentiment in Germany is in decline. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ed39bb2d-e91c-420c-b132-22b0ab50aee8/Japan+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Japan’s Economic Surprise Index indicates that expectations are still too optimistic. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0b28f07d-14d5-4d2e-a843-e313f799a8de/Switzerland+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Positive earnings revisions remain supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/37fb80a7-cfbc-4156-b453-a6b96c8b6922/UK+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Last month, we featured the sentiment chart below. We noted that a reversal from lower levels, confirmed by short-term trend indicators, would be positive. We have the sentiment reversal, but other short-term indicators have yet to confirm. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-catastrophic-stop-update-july-2-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-07-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dd32551f-4e2a-47f1-880e-d29575b553c3/catastrophic-stop-model-vs-sp500-total-return-index-07.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 2, 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7088919d-cd0c-4bf7-805e-79b737a1ebc6/msci-acwi-vs-msci-acwi-breadth-indicators-07.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 2, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Breadth is slightly positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b9968fa4-edff-4147-a325-e4b3214911cf/oas-corporates-high-yield-mortgages-agencies-07.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 2, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Even with the ramp in yields yesterday, credit spreads remain relatively narrow. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/39ca40b9-f306-406b-bf52-4ffc5eefbdda/russell-2000-index-07.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 2, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Most indexes remain range-bound, having gone nowhere for several years. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/25469580-4bf6-4b82-a51a-13f1210b92de/russell-1000-deciles-average-q2-performance.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 2, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Slim pickings. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/efe18346-0cf5-44b5-92ed-517276bc7ece/information-technology-earnings-07.2024.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 2, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The hurdle for earnings is high. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1b56f9e8-476a-474f-b182-0178ca6cd088/sp500-information-technology-relative-strength-vs-relative-price-overbought-oversold-07.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 2, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Go with the flow until it reaches an extreme and reverses. This particular OBOS indicator will flip to a sell signal when the 10-day rate of change declines below the top bracket. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e65e4f95-605c-4ec9-b088-42387adb293c/sp500-index-around-first-fed-rate-cuts.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 2, 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Whether the rate cut cycle ends up being a “fast” or “slow” cycle, the first few months after the first cut have been positive. (Internally, we’ve been discussing if this would be the catalyst for a blow-off top.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/97513d1e-c3ed-4c9d-973b-8233381f823a/sp500-utilities-relative-strength-vs-relative-price-momentum-07.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan Catastrophic Stop Update July 2, 2024 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-happy-birthday-america monthly 0.5 2024-07-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1719942565814-K3L6M8MMG1TT8YZDVPNP/day-hagan-tech-talk-07.02.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Happy Birthday, America - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/30f74fe0-aec0-4379-b1d9-96d65da73c22/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Happy Birthday, America - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | Large Cap Growth/Technology continues to record a bullish price pattern of higher troughs and higher peaks—an uptrend. Short-term: Please use the direction of the 13-day MA and short-term support accordingly—green box and short green line in thumbnail chart on right. Non-trading: Use the green uptrend support line accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d7ed6d21-475c-4dd4-b588-368437e47d16/year-to-date-performance.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Happy Birthday, America - Make it stand out Figure 2: Year-to-Date Performance (through 6/28/24). | 2024 hasn’t been as rosy as the “Index Movers” (Large Cap Growth/Technology) would have you believe. Considering this, a strategy benchmarked to the S&P 500 and including objective indicators designed to identify high-risk periods for the equity market may support your efforts—reach out for details about our Smart Sector strategies. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7ecd7214-0c5f-4de5-b2c1-120b0cbf17b8/btcusd.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Happy Birthday, America - Make it stand out Figure 3: Bitcoin (weekly chart) and declining 10-week MA. | Bitcoin, like the current domestic equity market’s negative breadth divergences, could make a stand and rehabilitate itself. But currently, it has a lot of work to do and is exhibiting chart characteristics similar to its 2022 top. And we know what happened to Technology that year. Therefore, please respect any decisive violation of support—blue arrows and price labels. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-july-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-07-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c9f6e586-fa55-4471-889c-bc52e801f0ff/Catastrophic+Stop+7-2024.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b04e4bbd-5120-4fc4-bcdb-d2bffd8c69dc/ACWI+Breadth+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: ACWI Breadth Factor illustrates a lack of broad-based participation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3b98f66e-ca9c-4bac-9a0d-37d89cb04dda/Daily+Sentiment+Composite+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite near excessive optimism levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/569829b2-0b30-4293-8765-8dec84780c19/Percentage+of+stocks+outperforming.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: The percentage of stocks outperforming the S&P 500 YTD is just 25.15%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9d2314e1-3d25-4210-83d4-6b15c06136a0/OAS+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: OAS for Corporates, High Yield, Mortgages, and Agencies remain below long-term averages. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d1249e49-1139-490b-93ca-68745f4c86b4/SP500+Consumer+Discretionary+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Higher rates negatively impacting consumer spending and consumer discretionary stocks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bfe1da20-5480-4fc6-b368-479d27a3b33c/S%26P+500+Consumer+Staples+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Economic weakness eventually benefits defensive areas of the market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/360abd74-f865-47dc-af16-0376a049c27a/Communication+Services+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Relative price momentum has improved (bottom clip of chart above). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fb866e51-5021-46e6-aa2d-2bca5cb31d95/Energy+Days+of+Supply+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Inventories are approaching the low levels that have historically been associated with support. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d5a256e-da20-46c2-86fe-4d562ab3f5c0/Financials+Oversold+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Oversold conditions are evident in the Financials sector, though not to the degree seen in 2020 and early 2023. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1da83142-ece0-4692-b358-774b9492aa2e/Health+Care+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Short-term relative momentum shows signs of a reversal from oversold levels https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/50635103-2bc3-47a8-9033-953e9195b4b6/Industrials+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Rising consumer confidence supports cyclicals/industrials. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/87398a13-ffef-4c33-9e11-f85f9702d929/Information+Technology+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 13: Go with the flow until it reaches an extreme and reverses. This particular OBOS indicator will flip to a sell signal when the 10-day rate of change declines below the top bracket. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/63abd5f5-9e5d-4722-b60c-c5b409e33959/Materials+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 14: Strength in Emerging Markets (especially China and India) has typically been bullish for the Materials sector. However, so far this cycle, prices haven’t responded, which is consistent with the overall bearish message of our Materials sector model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/97eb72a2-e6ff-411f-831b-1c59dc754781/Real+Estate+7-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 15: The Citi Economic Surprise Index’s negative reading, while positive for defensive sectors, has historically been negative for Real Estate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/11377fbc-12be-44e7-a4d3-e7ccac2219cd/sp50-utilities-relative-strength-vs-realtive-price-momentum-07-24.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update July 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 16: S&P 500 Utilities Relative Strength vs. Relative Price Momentum https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-june-25-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-death-taxes-and-interest-rate-volatility monthly 0.5 2024-07-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0d651503-9d4f-428d-8b02-ff9e1647f833/day-hagan-tech-talk-06.18.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Death, Taxes, and Interest Rate Volatility - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/594a0273-c069-46d7-a5f2-07fda34cec19/ust2y.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Death, Taxes, and Interest Rate Volatility - Make it stand out Figure 1: 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield w/Falling 21-day MA. | For an initial downside objective, I think 4.50% to 4.40%, for starters—green support lines. Will this help equities? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d963e739-35ef-4819-ba14-4c96f726bfc6/ust10y.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Death, Taxes, and Interest Rate Volatility - Make it stand out Figure 2: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield and 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (weekly data). | From a purely trend perspective, I like the pattern developing in the lower frame. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2d511ea0-46d8-4c1c-a190-1760bb0d2a0d/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Death, Taxes, and Interest Rate Volatility - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 – 1-year, daily data. | The green uptrend line helps identify a support level above the late-May price low of 5191 (support), yet below the very short-term support level depicted by the rising 13-day moving average. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-yet monthly 0.5 2024-06-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1718119266402-50R2EPRW9I2J0T7GAT6Z/day-hagan-tech-talk-06.11.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Yet - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/94528006-f305-4f4d-9810-fa9370b05307/s-and-p-500-large-cap-growth-index.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Yet - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 and More Broadly-Based Advance-Decline Lines. | While these negative divergences haven’t registered an actual sell signal, this chart depicts a “condition” that must be monitored because there is no timeframe associated with it to see if it will be remedied or not. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8aa57199-d952-49f4-bf1e-375868f5e541/nya.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Yet - Make it stand out Figure 2: “Home on the Range” (versus Large Cap Growth, Figure 3). | A flat/declining 50-day moving average (red lines) depicts a wide and lengthy “home on the range” pattern over the past few months. Away from the Large Cap Growth complex, I believe this has, understandably, produced a fair amount of frustration and angst for many Wall Street participants. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ab5a2695-1014-4784-b6fb-c2397a08fd36/spx-short-term.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Yet - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 (5360.79) with rising 13-day moving average (very short-term support). | SPX closed above 5341 (discussed last week), which was favorable for the index and solidifies the importance of support at 5191.68—see below. To extend the current uptrend, I think we need to decisively clear resistance somewhere between 5362 and 5375 (red line +). In the meantime, please watch underlying support shown and monitor the negative divergences. Reach out for updated charts going forward. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-june-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-06-06 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-strategy-update-june-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-07-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8a95ad17-5253-4ec4-921b-5c1957842422/Catastrophic+Stop+Model+6-3-2024.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aa9ac9f1-2976-4815-87d3-d195ab6395a7/Daily+Trading+Sentiment+Composite.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 vs. NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b97ef3b9-83fc-448b-b6ab-142e04ea254e/High+Yield+OAS+Factor.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: High Yield OAS Factor vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d474306-7f54-41c6-8cc7-4a2acf3290f3/Consumer+Discretionary+30-year+Treasury+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Higher rates negatively impacting consumer spending and consumer discretionary stocks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/82db6eda-7c70-4f2e-bba3-3a1d93555526/Consumer+Staples+Valuation+Forward+PE.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Consumer Staples Forward P/E shows defensive stocks are not a bargain. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0bd2f6d5-ad8b-4ad2-93e0-a1e25c90fa42/Communication+Services+Earnings+Revisions.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: The Breadth of Positive Earnings Revisions for Communication Services is rolling over. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a21846dd-e181-49ac-a37a-e21e729c5dcd/Eenrgy+versus+Crude+Oil+Days+of+Supply.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Inventory levels continue to drop (especially the SPR). When the Crude Oil Days of Supply indicator below drops below the lower bracket and reverses higher, it has historically been a good sign that inventories are starting to be replenished. With the sector’s Forward P/E at 11.85x, we are watching closely for the next opportunity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/caa2fd64-a4d0-4766-9518-7646da92a2f9/Financials+Sector+vs+G10+Economic+Surprise+Index.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: The Citi G10 Economic Surprise Index shows that recent economic releases have been missing expectations. This has historically been a headwind for the Financials sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/776d19d7-0f07-4bac-991d-821914fb511e/Health+Care+vs+Medical+CPI.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Inflation for medical products and services is bad for everyone except the providers. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/40af0e19-1b78-4ed5-ad05-0a999d881201/Industrials+vs+Volatility.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Sector volatility has declined to levels setting it up for a buy signal. When it occurs, we will look to increase exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d73da239-3f0c-4c8a-a137-0275ef99edf9/Information+Technology+vs+OBOS.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Go with the flow until it reaches an extreme and reverses. This particular OBOS indicator will flip to a sell signal when the 10-day rate of change declines below the top bracket. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6be96097-6023-47f0-a3b7-e3103e8d7fb8/Materials+vs+Copper.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 12: Copper prices dovetail with trends in the Materials sector. Copper prices look extended based on the indicator below. A drop below the lower bracket would generate a sell signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/64da5478-ec62-4e6b-ba83-1c6c832df300/Real+Estate+Internal+Indicators.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 13: The sector’s Internal Model is max negative. As we know, bull markets begin at bear market bottoms. As the model improves, we will add back exposure. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-june-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-07-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cfd922fa-c783-48e9-bdcf-cec084626afc/Catastrophic+Stop+Model+6-3-2024.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/112db60f-ffed-4e60-a75a-71e81af291f7/Australia.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Australia’s manufacturing output has slowed. Expectations are for services-related consumption to improve. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3a0e6d17-a0ad-469f-9ef8-b5dd8203b6b5/Canada.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Canada’s Leading Indicators are showing signs of improvement. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c361295-fabc-4a2a-a9d9-5f868424ea89/China.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: EM High-yield credit spreads narrowing. This indicates investors aren’t anticipating a major financial disruption. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/225c3735-8ed7-4a0f-b560-532f020525fa/France.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: France’s composite of leading indicators slowly working higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/26ad95d1-a9ac-4f72-879f-de46062092ac/Germany.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Investor demand is starting to pick up, with inflows into Europe lifting off of 10-year lows. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/86d5e092-3965-437b-98c7-ff65184fcdc6/Japan.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Forward earnings growth expectations are plummeting. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/409aee5b-6134-40b6-ac22-445201c1dd51/Switzerland.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Positive earnings revisions are supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a3c2c510-1128-4648-aa6a-5cb2083c03e8/United+Kingdom.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Sentiment has turned pessimistic. A reversal from lower levels, confirmed by short-term trend indicators, would be positive. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-june-2024 monthly 0.5 2025-05-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cf2aafa1-9897-497c-99b3-70a3800e2821/Risk+Management+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2024 Figure 1: Catastrophic Stop Model vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/76c185ca-c203-48f1-a973-a0140a186560/Breadth+of+Central+Bank+Rate+Changes.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Breadth of Central Bank Rate Changes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/31c354d3-9802-4eaf-978f-6512da8de26b/US+Long+Term+Treasury+Inflation+Expectations.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: U.S. Long-Term Treasury Inflation Expectations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/500d610f-61ce-48bb-9dcc-fa36fecf1acb/Inflation+Timing+Model.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Since 1962, when the Inflation Timing model signaled moderate disinflation, the CPI Index has declined at a 1.0% annualized rate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/786fbbcd-57b7-4201-8f46-be1a66d314f4/US+Mortgage+Backed.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Mortgage-backed spreads have decreased after a mid-May spike, though still below the long-term average. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7a0328ea-582c-40d9-b20c-2de9a884f1cb/Floating+Rate.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: One of the last supporting indicators based on trend is closing in on a sell signal.s https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3243a3df-0c27-4e35-8871-d7d304af142d/IG+Corporates.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Simple trend-following indicators help keep the model on the right side of major trends. This indicator is poised to generate a buy signal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/80c07601-6419-46e9-9d54-65991afdee2c/High+Yield.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Small-cap equity uptrends support high-yield bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8574c619-876c-4215-b693-8429b7210796/International+IG+bonds.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Looking for technical improvement before adding exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eaf6b2c2-690d-470b-8883-d927f759796e/emerging-market-bonds-emerging-equity-momentum.png Research - Day Hagan Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Emerging Market equities have been doing well, supporting EM bond prices. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-stay monthly 0.5 2024-06-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1717515253349-OM0UVIG65297IDJNL2SE/day-hagan-tech-talk-06.04.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Stay (Just a Little Bit Longer) - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0e978500-a4da-4227-bdc2-fd447ea6792c/spdr-s-and-p-500-etf.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Stay (Just a Little Bit Longer) - Make it stand out Figure 1: Domestic Equity Market Proxies. | Using support (green & blue lines) and resistance (red lines) as a guidepost for future directional moves, these patterns will “stay, just a little bit longer https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2541a470-3a8a-4882-9aa1-d034a4e1d234/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Stay (Just a Little Bit Longer) - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with emphasis on two recent intraday reversals. | Short-term, a violation of resistance or support highlighted in the chart would be a catalyst, at least in part, for SPX’s next directional move—higher if resistance is violated and lower if support is violated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9351ecc5-9eaa-47e1-a83e-73f04920bddb/ura.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Stay (Just a Little Bit Longer) - Make it stand out Figure 3: Uranium proxy (URA) – weekly data. | Please refer to the verbiage inside the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d964b235-17c2-4b64-bc4c-e8947f508157/gaso.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Stay (Just a Little Bit Longer) - Make it stand out Figure 4: Energy and support (green lines). | As a former colleague and friend loved to say, with a twinkle in his eye, “Leave us Hope.” https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-rinse-and-repeat monthly 0.5 2024-06-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a7404fc-a7cc-476a-b773-4db0bd300f52/day-hagan-tech-talk-05.28.2024-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rinse and Repeat? More Evidence Needed - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eee99234-f174-49c0-9149-d6893b9c271d/tnx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rinse and Repeat? More Evidence Needed - Make it stand out Figure 1: 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield Index (TNX) & inverse correlation with S&P 500 (SPX). | I realize that the correlation between interest rates and equities shown below is short-term. Yet, considering all that is going on domestically and internationally and given a significant 1-month inverse correlation between the direction of TNX and SPX, I want to keep this in front of you. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/71c4deab-1b35-45ce-b9ce-53bf64c24e50/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rinse and Repeat? More Evidence Needed - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with rising 21-day moving average. | Considering the abovementioned condition, please respect areas of support—green circle, dashed blue line, and green lines—based on your timeframe and tolerance for downside volatility. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-may-21-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-06-26 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-shoreline-equities-and-smart-sector-update monthly 0.5 2024-05-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1715700670440-5B25TF9QUGGBV7NIJ4LT/day-hagan-tech-talk-05.14.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Shoreline Equities and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7a2ffce2-e19f-4ffc-aa30-ac3ae709cd90/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Shoreline Equities and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 with Rising 21-day MA (short-term chart). | Short-term overbought (close to 2 standard deviations above 50-day MA) and near resistance (see below). Ideally, this equates to another consolidation period. This would help discern the next short-term directional move—new highs or a retest of underlying support (green lines below). Until then, the oft-referenced “hesitation” continues. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f350730d-bc93-4184-bdbf-6006d6655aa6/util.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Shoreline Equities and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 2: Dow Jones Utility Average with Stochastic Indicator. | A longer-term price objective, based on the depth of the completed base, points higher (reach out for specifics). The short-term condition is overbought (OB) and close to resistance (red lines). A pause/pullback would be helpful. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ba62bfaf-757e-47ab-9118-25987582abf8/hsy-smh.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Shoreline Equities and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 3: Chocolate Chips (HSY) relative to Chips (semiconductor ETF). | This relative strength trend hasn’t yet made, but is close to making, a bearish-to-bullish turn. A decisive close above the red resistance line would confirm the move. Please reach out for an updated chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d7ed418-d289-4a3a-9b1e-50a6f5e82403/spx-acwx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Shoreline Equities and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 4: Global Advance-Decline Line & U.S. vs. All Country World Index ex U.S.| Selective overseas exposure and a strategy that incorporates a plan to manage risk seems appropriate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e8a029d8-ba08-418a-91dd-08205663d1d9/tnx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Shoreline Equities and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 5: 20+ Year Treasury Bond proxy and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Index. | “PRICE” has rallied up to resistance (top frame, red lines). “YIELD” has pulled back to, and around, support (lower frame, green line, blue dashed line). Considering tomorrow’s CPI and Retail Sales report and today’s PPI report, some type of reversal (higher yields, lower price) shouldn’t be surprising. Regardless, I continue to believe that the near-term direction of interest rates will play a role in the near-term direction of domestic equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/999db018-7f53-42c8-83ad-e4979bc00d0f/bndx-agg.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Shoreline Equities and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 6: International & High Yield Bond vs. U.S. Aggregate Bond. | Respect support (green lines). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/415ab001-2ca0-4984-b6af-c63ebfeab826/gaso.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Shoreline Equities and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 7: Gasoline – Continuous contract. | I’ll look past the inflation, stagflation, or whatever economic narrative Wall Street is espousing. The chart shows Gasoline declined from just over $2.80 (the top end of a multi-quarter trading range—red and green lines) to critical support in and around $2.50 (top horizontal blue line). A decisive move lower may cause the consumer (and maybe the Fed) to smile, while Wall Street may have to rethink their feelings about energy stocks. Note: Energy has been rated neutral over the past few months; a good relative call. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-rangebound-continues monthly 0.5 2024-05-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1715090864772-4YU8NCQI4ZFETL6ZQUGP/day-hagan-tech-talk-05.07.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rangebound Continues - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/06ffe6a3-2d92-4788-bbfa-bb11c302b626/tnx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rangebound Continues - Make it stand out Figure 1: CBOE 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Index & Rising 50-day MA (dashed blue line). | Considering the above observations and this chart, including the green and blue support lines and red resistance lines, please take note of “Fed-speak” this week. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a0282aca-ff31-40ee-8589-8a54bec8481d/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rangebound Continues - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 (SPX) – daily data. | Amid the midpoint of a pocket of overhanging selling pressure, until the influence of interest rates on the short-term direction on equities subsides, or until resistance is decisively broken, expect more of the same—rangebound trading. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d68705a5-abd5-4d6e-9cbf-acc0064344e0/s-and-p-cycle-composite.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rangebound Continues - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2024. | Weakness (choppiness) into late May and again between September and October (pre-elections), but an overall positive year. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f8e99f8f-42ef-497b-be3f-f5e3996f41bd/nasdaq-cycle-composite.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rangebound Continues - Make it stand out Figure 4: NASDAQ Cycle Composite for 2024. | Weakness (choppiness) into late May and again between September and October (pre-elections), but an overall positive year. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-may-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-05-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/38851ee4-b42b-4679-8a88-786fde5a67e4/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-04.30.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e754349b-87d2-4607-90fc-cccdbb355be8/weakening-baltic-dry-index-bearish-equity-exposure-04.30.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weakening Baltic Dry Index is Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/05a55850-984e-4d2f-a519-39b514795082/global-composite-pmi-3-month-vs-msci-acwi-03.31.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global Composite PMI (Three-Month Change) vs. MSCI ACWI https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/feac9a0a-310e-4bf8-b0cf-b86bdb87ab2e/china-composite-manufacturing-services-pmi-03.31.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: China Composite (Manufacturing and Services) PMI https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4ecfd544-535c-4511-9e36-06611e894a49/msci-europe-vs-zew-euro-05.01.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: MSCI Europe vs. ZEW Euro Area Macro Economic Expectations (Level Modes) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/36b5f3dd-6028-4694-a3b2-7a20b3ddf30f/bank-japan-05.01.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Bank of Japan Policy Rate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7dca9a78-cb57-4e6b-8e08-07163a8fa626/composite-purchacing-managers-index-output-05.02.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Composite Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI): Output https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2e6e7feb-6af2-423c-b0d8-bb4ec0a02ca1/msci-netherlands-vs-msci-acwi-04.30.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: MSCI Netherlands Index vs. MSCI ACWI Index https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-may-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-05-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e910d24e-2073-4b73-85d5-36765238f620/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-04.30.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/08db9ea1-5146-441a-841e-d3d585b94996/weakening-baltic-dry-index-bearish-equity-exposure-04.30.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weakening Baltic Dry Index is Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c7722ad5-5b57-4ec3-9326-da1841025cd8/treasury-inflation-protected-securities-tips-05.02.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0582ef11-28c0-41df-8a1c-c92ddb96a0e4/us-Floating-Rate-Notes.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: U.S. Floating Rate Notes FRN RS vs. VIX (inv.) Extremes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1e63da23-d9e6-4712-acd3-dbc3b239f095/stengthening-us-dollar-neutral-us-investment-grade-corporate-03.28.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Improving Trend is Bullish for International Investment Grade https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e42d6b0a-a6a2-433a-8bdc-cba696fc8296/narrowing-inflation-expectations-extremes-spread-bearish-mortgage-backed-securities-04.30.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Narrowing Inflation Expectations Extremes Spread is Bearish for Mortgage Backed Securities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6b07516d-0849-4c96-9200-a232590bd383/US-Long-Term-Treasuries-Inflation-Expectations-05.03.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: U.S. Long Term Treasury Inflation Expectations https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-may-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-05-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/865c5e73-1645-4d74-a007-38c9e43072de/ssus-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-04.30.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3c3d46e1-6d9f-4d37-9f5d-2be7f29d44d4/weakening-baltic-dry-index-bearish-equity-exposure-04.30.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weakening Baltic Dry Index is Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6e384ae8-40f9-4ef4-b7cd-e639869a16ce/sp500-number-of-dsyas-before-start-corrections-05.01.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500: Number of Days Before the Start of 3% Corrections https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b7c0e4b3-8859-4bf6-b228-5d2fe5fa7f2c/weakening-economic-surprises-bearish-financials-sector-04.30.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Weakening Economic Surprises is Bearish for the S&P 500 Financials Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/787f3414-2617-4c50-a841-074f52760193/improving-trend-bullish-utilities-sector-04.30.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Improving Trend is Bullish for the S&P 500 Utilities Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/432309f9-4222-451b-84a2-c3194614beb1/improving-earnings-revision-breadth-neutral-communication-services-sector-04.26.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Improving Earnings Revision Breadth is Neutral for the S&P 500 Communication Services Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0fe0da28-4215-4630-b574-bc1ce8e3e6be/reversal-overbought-relative-strength-bearish-materials-sector-04.30.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update May 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Reversal in Overbought Relative Strength is Bearish for the S&P 500 Materials Sector https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-may-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-05-02 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-hard-work-begins-now monthly 0.5 2024-05-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1714492197264-N55VK119ZKSZGVPN80AK/day-hagan-tech-talk-04.30.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Hard Work Begins Now! - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/960c519e-c99a-4eb9-a5b8-48d83e5193de/spx-daily.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Hard Work Begins Now! - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 – daily data. | Please see the areas of resistance (red lines and box) and support (blue arrows) and use them accordingly, especially considering Figure 2. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0b8b98a1-626e-4199-abae-55e1c2dca51f/spx-weekly.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Hard Work Begins Now! - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with Momentum and Rising 30-week MA (green line) – weekly data. | The NDR Catastrophic Stop Loss model is currently showing a favorable condition. Since corrections can occur from a time or price perspective or a combination of the two, I reemphasize the importance of the support levels shown in Figure 1 and below. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/525d1bd9-5900-43d9-9686-46cc61344319/spx-vs-acwx-weekly.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Hard Work Begins Now! - Make it stand out Figure 3: U.S. vs. the Rest of the World ex U.S. – weekly data. | 2-year chart used to discern the important underlying support level more easily. If you prefer a longer-term chart, please reach out. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/17bb4a36-114d-4a0c-a1ca-3047fc0475fd/hang-seng.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Hard Work Begins Now! - Make it stand out Figure 4: Hang Seng China Enterprises index – weekly data. | Please see the verbiage and resistance (red lines) and support (green lines) shown inside the chart. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-market-outlook-with-don-hagan-cfa-recorded-april-24-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-04-25 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-will-april-showers-bring-may-flowers monthly 0.5 2024-04-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/40ad75ed-c440-4680-a875-b2116ae49e34/day-hagan-tech-talk-04.23.2024-flat-1200x675px.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Will April Showers Bring May Flowers? - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a934c01f-1a81-4eb6-98af-cf8c9701a5f1/spx-5-year-weekly.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Will April Showers Bring May Flowers? - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 with Momentum (MACD – bearish signal still in place) – weekly data. | To clarify my “yes” answer, I think, unless dictated otherwise, the short-term technical conditions suggest the odds favor some price stability, intermittent countertrend rallies, and an eventual test of longer-term support. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c8d841c3-e21c-4e68-a209-35b10d99724f/the-anatomy.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Will April Showers Bring May Flowers? - Make it stand out Figure 2: Anatomy of a Stock Market (S&P 500) Decline. | Lending some credence to further downside testing is the following table from Ned David Research. Please note the fifth line, “Chance of Decline Moving to Next Stage (%)*.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/898c0cc6-7027-4470-ac03-2f6f7f755d80/spx-6-month-daily.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Will April Showers Bring May Flowers? - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 – daily data. | Per Susan Berge, “Early in a bull market, short-term oversold conditions are usually quickly followed by a rally. As a bull market ages, it takes more weakness and more time to create technical conditions conducive to a rally.” Consistent with this, please see shorter-term levels of support (green lines) and pockets/areas of resistance (red rectangle boxes). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/595d3752-5650-4ec1-bf68-7ccda43efd4a/xlp-xlk.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Will April Showers Bring May Flowers? - Make it stand out Figure 4: Consumer Staples vs. Technology (daily, relative strength trend). | The proxy used in the denominator (technology) should bounce because this relationship has moved very far, very quickly. However, with interest rates trending higher, what is the outperformance of staples and utilities saying? When it comes to leading and lagging, who are you going to believe: the charts or those lying eyes? https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-longer-term-support-and-near-term-trend-change monthly 0.5 2024-04-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1713192822865-8F1LTUFWN7NJP9HTAWQT/day-hagan-tech-talk-04.15.2024-flat.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Longer-Term Support and Near-Term Trend Change - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aeeda44c-1598-4cad-a760-e5d65d536f58/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Longer-Term Support and Near-Term Trend Change - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 (5123.41) with weekly momentum. | The long-term uptrend remains in place, and long-term support levels are shown below. Given the geopolitical news, weakening momentum (top frame), and uncertainty around how overnight futures are trading as of this writing, the following areas represent potential short-term support: 5104, 5056, and 4983 (gap support). https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-break-on-through-to-the-other-side monthly 0.5 2024-04-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/989efd56-fe38-4bcf-b9a2-274dbee52056/day-hagan-tech-talk-04.09.2024-flat-1200x675px.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Break On Through (To the Other Side) - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/430fd021-b48d-459a-8485-86e4f3b1b5f2/indu.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Break On Through (To the Other Side) - Make it stand out Figure 1: Dow Jones Industrial Average. | The broken support line hasn’t been recaptured and DIA is exhibiting a potential Bear Flag pattern. Since the DJIA is a good proxy for the “Index Movers” (non-growth), please manage risk, especially if additional support levels are broken. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b673a918-6ac5-4883-9a3d-b3d5822e9771/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Break On Through (To the Other Side) - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500. | S&P 500 has been moving sideways since the start of April and now stands close to where it was in early March. 1) Manage short-term risk, as resistance is approached and not violated and/or support is broken. 2) My “Hesitation” label from a few weeks ago was accurate after all! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b63f1ab5-4683-4bc8-81de-3ca06f3a42dd/compq.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Break On Through (To the Other Side) - Make it stand out Figure 3: NASDAQ. | “NASDAQ Bulls” were enjoying an intraday gain of almost 1.2% last Thursday, yet by the close, the Nasdaq was down 1.4% for the day. 16,000+/- is an important support level! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a080a034-1523-400a-8d46-005107230ecc/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Break On Through (To the Other Side) - Make it stand out Figure 4: Small Cap proxy. | This Small Cap proxy experienced an intraday swing of almost 2.5%, from intraday high to low last Thursday. Yet it has not violated the green uptrend support line, nor moved below a prior reaction low support point. Please respect any violation of support, as highlighted below. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a861a3b7-05c3-4aee-835d-3fc797e347ab/wtic.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Break On Through (To the Other Side) - Make it stand out Figure 5: Light Crude Oil—Continuous Contract. | For quite a while, the chart of Crude has proven to be “value added.” Currently, the next potential inflection points (resistance) are $90+/- and $95+/-. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9a9da40d-ba5c-4a18-8ffa-c5651f399b39/spen.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Break On Through (To the Other Side) - Make it stand out Figure 6: S&P 500 Energy Sector Index. | Our Smart Sector strategy (U.S. equities) has been, and remains, overweight Energy. A pullback towards support (green lines) shouldn’t be surprising. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-april-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-04-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c81df715-6c9e-4e43-9605-3142ab9ee849/ssfi-smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-03.28.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2d1c4fcb-d28f-4622-bdb7-dcc1726edd9f/excessive-short-term-optimism-relieved-neutral-stock-exposure-03.28.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Excessive Short-Term Optimism Has Been Relieved: Neutral for Stock Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3356a41e-5753-4b96-b67a-6d9c0acda5ca/comparative-returns-treasury-bonds-corporate-bonds-stocks-cash-03.31.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Comparative Returns for Treasury Bonds, Corporate Bonds, Stocks, and Cash https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3a86a8bd-de9d-4d06-948c-8d1543be6c1a/lower-stoc-market-volatility-bullish-us-high-yield-bonds-03.28.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Lower Stock Market Volatility is Bullish for U.S. High Yield Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1e63da23-d9e6-4712-acd3-dbc3b239f095/stengthening-us-dollar-neutral-us-investment-grade-corporate-03.28.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Strengtheing U.S. Dollar is Neutral for U.S. Investment Grade Corporate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/57f10c7a-d886-443e-91a8-2a3e298ac847/weak-short-term-trend-bearish-us-tips-04.01.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weakening Short-Term Trend is Bearish for U.S. TIPS https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/df4a1b02-ca55-496c-bfdd-5b6660fbfda1/weak-short-term-trend-bearish-us-tips-04.01.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Weak Short-Term Trend is Bearish for U.S. TIPS https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-april-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-04-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/af7b443d-8a95-4c9f-b75b-c2d1f6a94a22/ssxu-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-03.28.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/25483645-2582-402c-a5b6-3c314901e08d/excessive-shot-term-optimism-relieved-neutral-stock-expsure-2024.03.28.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Excessive Short-Term Optimism Has Been Relieved: Neutral for Stock Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/47b5eaa6-a851-429a-a546-234f32931c44/global-composite-pmi-3-month-change-vs-msci-acwi-02.29.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global Composite PMI (Three-Month Change) vs. MSCI ACWI https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2826e8a0-95f2-4898-adbc-ea43a44e440c/canada-absolute-trend-continues-move-higher-03.28.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Canada Absolute Trend Continues to Move Higher https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7533e386-ee41-4fcf-b048-cd7bb224886d/japan-citigroup-economic-surprise-index-vs-msci-03.29.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Japan Citigroup Economic Surprise Index vs. MSCI https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f3fe77f6-d9cd-42d5-bf0e-31daacb894d0/europe-earnings-revisions-downtrend-04.01.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Europe Earnings Revisions Remain in Downtrend https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ac248bb3-20c8-4e81-b650-a51e0d90ba82/uk-relative-strength-downtrend-03.29.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: U.K. RelativeStrength Remains in a Downtrend https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d0772adc-b842-45cb-abf6-09e0aa4b89be/msci-malaysia-03.29.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: MSCI Malaysia https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-april-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-04-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/612fa88c-026d-4e61-8069-23c588ae8181/ssus-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-03.28.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update April 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cf6b26f8-4162-4c00-8ece-d43c0086f35b/excessive-short-term-optimism-neutral-stock-exposure-03.28.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Excessive Short-Term Optimism Has Been Relieved: Neutral for Stock Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7f524b69-f040-4ae7-a0b4-154a3747c324/sp500-index-performance-growth-inflation-scenarios-03.31.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 Index Performance in Growth/Inflation Scenarios https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/66c8a520-d036-41fc-a43f-7107d972f006/stengthening-us-dollar-bullish-sp500-financials-sector-03.28.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Strengthening U.S. Dollar is Bullish for the S&P 500 Financials Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/95de979f-2cd9-4fa0-85f6-477f3faf8db3/weakening-median-sales-yield-bearish-sp500-information-technology-sector-03.28.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Weakening Median Sales Yield is Bearish for the S&P 500 Information Technology Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7b2ec7d6-5e67-409c-be4c-cc8e38a4e055/weak-earnings-breadth-bearish-sp500-communication-services-sector-03.28.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weakening Earnings Revision Breadth is Bearish for the S&P 500 Communication Services Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cf7b2052-46b9-4335-b557-133765339804/relative-price-mean-reversion-bearish-sp500-real-estate-sector-03.28.2024.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update April 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Relative Price Mean Reversion is Bearish for the S&P 500 Real Estate Sector https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-april-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-04-05 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-walking-the-line-still monthly 0.5 2024-04-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6d655570-6ff8-464b-ba7e-5973da2e6ef0/day-hagan-tech-talk-04.02.2024-flat-1200x675px.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Walking the Line, Still - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a4794dbf-317b-4b68-9826-3642fa6fb560/spx-daily.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Walking the Line, Still - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | For now, the next chart-based support line is in the vicinity of 5200. Following that area, the bullish pattern of higher troughs stays intact while above 5104/5056 support—blue arrows. The upper channel line (resistance) currently comes into play above 5300+. Note: Since both are uptrend lines, the specific levels of both support (green) and resistance (red) lines will increase over time. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1c0beed4-a1d7-4ca7-a072-d5491e8f6646/spx-weekly.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Walking the Line, Still - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 – weekly data. | With the start of a new quarter, an aggressive SPX price target based on the depth of the base that was completed on the breakout over 4800 equates to a target closer to 5800/6100. First and foremost, we will follow our models and indicators. If our models shift to bearish levels, we will raise cash. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/24e427e0-885b-47f8-9971-a99fc8cae22f/sox.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Walking the Line, Still - Make it stand out Figure 3: Semiconductor Index. | Per Ralph Bloch, “So goes the semis, so goes NASDAQ. So goes NASDAQ, so goes the market.” Please focus on trend line support (the Line) in the vicinity of 4800, and the most immediate reaction low (support) at 4620. Concurrently, initial points of resistance (selling pressure) exist between 4993 and 5031, followed by 5218 (red bar from which big one-day reversal occurred—black circle). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/87d45f98-0355-4728-bd59-ee3d61fbb9e4/everything+else.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Walking the Line, Still - Make it stand out Figure 4: 2023, 2024 Year to Date and March 2024 Returns. | “Whereas 60% of the S&P 500 returns last year (2023) came from the Mag 7, this year that has been flipped. The rally broadened in March when 2/3 of the index’s return came from members outside the Magnificent 7.” ~JP Morgan. Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P., as of 3/27/24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1b161d5a-d023-4bdf-95c3-393fd544ecec/wheat.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Walking the Line, Still - Make it stand out Figure 5: Round Trip Commodity Moves. | “Parabolic advances usually go further than you think, but they do not (usually) correct by going sideways." ~Bob Farrell https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/52050c05-b841-4ea5-9790-8e2adc4bfeb5/cocoa.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Walking the Line, Still - Make it stand out Figure 6: Cocoa and Recent Parabolic Move. | Based on Figure 5, how do you think this may end? https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-march-26-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-05-22 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-and-smart-sector-update-march-19-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-04-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1710859908638-XJRITFIQ3QNYUM2H6ORP/day-hagan-tech-talk-03.19.2024-flat.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: S&P 500 (Big Cap) Hesitation and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ec4f9af6-a637-44ce-99be-bba9ba4aa573/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: S&P 500 (Big Cap) Hesitation and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 6-month chart (short-term). | A break of the multi-month upward trending support line (green)—currently around 5100ish, but since it is rising, it will marginally change each day—would be a change of the pattern. This would imply a test of next support between 5056 and 5038. A failure to hold that area of support would suggest the start of a deeper correction. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b879f8eb-ef6d-429e-b560-f66e6da6d693/xlfadp.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: S&P 500 (Big Cap) Hesitation and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 2: Financial Sector and various internal measuring tools plus Bank Index. | As long as support holds (green lines in top, second, and bottom frame) this chart is consistent with NDR’s statement and the sector allocation model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ff088b93-8d25-4c4a-891d-d58af9316e4a/gtx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: S&P 500 (Big Cap) Hesitation and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 3: Commodity Proxy and Energy Relative Strength Lines. | They say, “A picture(s) is worth a thousand words.” I don’t think it will take that many to say “improving, supportive.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1642e4e2-4456-4519-9f14-57ae35b1f3e2/spxacwx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: S&P 500 (Big Cap) Hesitation and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 4: Global Advance – Decline Line & U.S. versus All Country World Index ex U.S.| Selective overseas exposure and a strategy that incorporates a plan to manage risk seems appropriate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e70c1a34-b192-46e0-ae75-18efc368973e/fljp.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: S&P 500 (Big Cap) Hesitation and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 5: Selective Overseas Proxies Exhibiting a Favorable Price Trend. | The global equity advance continues to include more countries, making the market less dependent on Big Caps/Index Movers. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0823a1f4-15ea-4a60-be7f-305d40b5ed0b/vwobagg.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: S&P 500 (Big Cap) Hesitation and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 6: Emerging Market & High Yield Bond proxy versus U.S. Aggregate Bond proxy. | Tactically, considering the volatility associated with each of these, risk tolerance levels should be defined ahead of time and managed accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ab2ba292-ff3c-4a19-bad2-49b6a303ad77/xlpxly.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: S&P 500 (Big Cap) Hesitation and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 7: Staples vs. Discretionary (relative strength-cap weighted). | A topside breakout, which has not occurred, would imply that Wall Street is increasing its positioning in the defensive/non-Index Movers portion of the equity market, possibly at the expense of the Index Movers/Discretionary/Growth segment. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-sugar-high-gut-check monthly 0.5 2024-04-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5efb7484-d6dd-4ca5-a717-c87fc3612438/day-hagan-tech-talk-03.12.2024-flat-1200x675px.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Sugar High to Gut Check - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/27b8986d-cd97-4c24-b0c4-1305c706f290/nyfang.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Sugar High to Gut Check - Make it stand out Figure 1: NYSE Fang Plus Index vs. NYSE Composite. | Following a pattern of lower peaks, a breakdown (move below previous low) & violation of a rising 50-day MA, please focus on next support—green lines. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c9a83f3b-f35f-41d9-b307-6a39601adf78/nasdaq-cycle-composite.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Sugar High to Gut Check - Make it stand out Figure 2: NASDAQ Cycle Composite for 2024. | While seasonal tendencies can be overshadowed by Fed speak, algo trading, and macroeconomic trends (employment, inflation, economic activity), and we consider this a second-tier indicator and not part of the Smart Sector strategy models, this chart is worth being aware of. It suggests seasonal headwinds. Tactically, I would review risk parameters relative to “anything Technology,” especially if it experienced a key reversal as described above. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/08169691-418c-4cda-b83c-90c90de294b4/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Sugar High to Gut Check - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500. | Support between 5060 to 5050 held—green lines. If this area is violated it would represent a change and imply a move down towards 4950/4920 (blue arrows), for starters. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-march-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-04-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4d5281b2-8cea-4cb3-8d43-4ea749b2b16c/international-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e398793e-3543-4d1a-a060-3d8d4505dd5e/improving-short-term-trend-in-baltic-dry-index-bullish-equity-exposure-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Improving Short-Term Trend in the Baltic Dry Index: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/75e12e91-4685-46f0-ae71-4d81fc1984bb/oecd-composite-leading-indicator-improving-supports-global-equities-2024.01.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: OECD Composite Leading Indicator Improving: Supports Global Equities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0da04e63-5bc9-4fc8-adb9-a8bbade6eb86/canadas-oecd-composite-leading-indicators-improving-relative-basis-2024.02.09.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Canada’s OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) Improving on a Relative Basis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/602de20d-f939-406b-9424-bb992e809c6d/japan-real-gdp-seasonally-adjusted-2023.12.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Japan Real GDP (Seasonally Adjusted) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7b0aecae-f3ea-4cfc-8b99-d82c9ca9453d/msci-europe-ex-uk-forward-earnings-growth-trending-lower-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: MSCI Europe ex U.K. Forward Earnings Growth Trending Lower https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/846db699-145c-4bc2-8b05-65cca5c5b85b/uk-industrial-production-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: U.K. Industrial Production https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7aba2b54-fed4-49aa-90fc-54e4a3cce0dc/brazil-markit-manufacturing-purchasing-managers-index-pmi-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Brazil Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-march-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-04-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5055ee04-68f8-4426-8afb-b05bf914f7e6/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-2024-02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9962124c-0c27-4101-a2e1-4a55a29b2a80/improving-short-term-trend-baltic-dry-index-bullish-equity-exposure-2021-03-01-to-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Improving Short-Term Trend in the Baltic Dry Index: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/03f588b1-91e5-4cc9-b140-81af3b4e4136/primary-federal-budget-deficit-to-gdp.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Primary Federal Budget Deficit-to-GDP. Interest expense will ballon regardless of who wins https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/30c5f7fb-dab6-4213-9b59-2b0bc25cde93/rising-stock-market-volatility-bearish-us-high-yield-bonds-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Rising Stock Market Volatility is Bearish for U.S. High Yield Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ca89f742-9d17-4396-b45e-f23731a1021b/weakening-short-term-trend-bearish-us-investment-grade-corporate-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Weakening Short-Term Trend is Bearish for U.S. Investment Grade Corporate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/719b4557-9667-4993-a75c-6968a2bea36e/weakening-commodity-price-trends-bearish-us-tips-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weakening Commodity Price Trends is Bearish for U.S. TIPS https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a609717c-ea75-4c89-929b-fd6d987aac9f/short-term-trend-bullish-international-investment-grade-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Short-Term Trend is Bullish for International Investment Grade. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-march-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-03-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eb605e21-13c1-4da2-b932-3f9dacc6bcb4/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f468d7c5-b6e6-4f91-b691-c6205e7d4dcc/improving-short-term-trend-baltic-dry-index-bullish-equity-exposure-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Improving Short-Term Trend in the Baltic Dry Index: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e40a6229-f97d-43c8-92e3-5451ac8fa865/dow-industrials-presidential-election-year-cycle.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Dow Industrials – Presidential Election Year Cycle II https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/717fd82e-861d-4af9-8653-5460e74dcab2/improving-deviation-trend-bullish-sp500-consumer-discretionary-sector-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Improving Deviation from Trend is Bullish for the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e7ac0f28-5ca3-46f8-8717-24e83a308ca1/improving-short-term-momentum-bullish-sp500-industrials-sector-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Improving Short-Term Momentum is Bullish for the S&P 500 Industrials Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2a334e6b-dfd6-42f3-8de1-ca6b6b75f068/weakening-earnings-revision-breadth-bearish-sp500-communication-services-sector-2024.02.23.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weakening Earnings Revision Breadth is Bearish for the S&P 500 Communication Services Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e97b7216-e3cb-418f-bd26-e2df9d27af32/strengthing-us-dollar-bearish-sp500-energy-sector-2024.02.29.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update March 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Strengthening U.S. Dollar is Bearish for the S&P 500 Energy Sector https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-the-grind-continues monthly 0.5 2024-03-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1709670053674-XCV3I3K4BIVU3VPOX03N/day-hagan-tech-talk-03.05.2024-flat-1200x675px.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Grind Continues - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/68d312e0-ae2e-4df4-8a92-d07bb008e3e2/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Grind Continues - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | Please refer to the verbiage inside the chart. In terms of support, please use the green uptrend line as well as the levels highlighted inside the thumbnail chart on the right. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9748825b-29a2-41ae-a6e7-caf68772b656/nya.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Grind Continues - Make it stand out Figure 2: Domestic Equity Market Proxies – weekly charts. | Besides the tech-heavy SPX (Figure 1) and “Index Movers,” broader areas of the domestic equity market have joined the fray higher—supportive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8919eb17-9f42-473b-912e-5a6830339ee3/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Grind Continues - Make it stand out Figure 3: Small Cap proxies - weekly chart. | More work is needed on a relative basis (versus Large Caps—please reach out for the chart). But from a price (trend) perspective, don’t be surprised by a stair step move (1.5 step higher, 1-step down) towards resistance (red lines)/2021 highs. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-march-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-03-05 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-land-of-the-rising-sun monthly 0.5 2024-03-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e100b290-dbb8-4300-bc32-dda34546968a/day-hagan-tech-talk-02.27.2024-flat-1200x675px.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Land of the Rising Sun - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c8fb6078-2f71-4328-a758-f71afa5bbcb3/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Land of the Rising Sun - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 with rising 21-day MA short-term support. | Initial short-term support can be gleaned at both the upside gap (green circle) & rising 21-day MA (blue line, will marginally change each day), down closer to 4980+/-. One guidepost for the strength of the near-term trend is if this area of short-term support will be tested, and how long it takes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b04d0c32-febf-4047-ae77-0d3dd7992b6a/xlk-spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Land of the Rising Sun - Make it stand out Figure 2: Technology vs. S&P 500 – short-term relative strength trends. |While I question JPM’s statement about NVDA, given the chart below I’ll take them at their word, until/unless the relative strength ratios say otherwise and break topside. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0287b6c7-b8e6-4431-9a1b-35fdceafaa1c/nikk.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Land of the Rising Sun - Make it stand out Figure 3: Japan Stock Market Index (NIKK). | Having fulfilled my initial target, while the trend remains “your friend,” I prefer to see how the most recent move is digested—either through a period of consolidation or a pullback. This is consistent with our belief that excesses in one direction will usually lead to an excess in the other direction. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-rumours monthly 0.5 2024-02-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1708447811043-FLKPR1ME5IBD7XVVRYN9/day-hagan-tech-talk-02.20.2024-1200x627px-flat.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rumours - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4f019c0b-32d5-42ba-a61f-096815fb600b/comp.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rumours - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P NASDAQ and New 52-Week High. | Considering the waning number of new highs, please respect support (green & blue lines, price labels) and resistance (red line) shown below. Also, please identify stop-loss points (trading and non-trading) for stock-specific Technology positions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/17199801-407d-4ba9-8bf9-81fa65c7b265/technology.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rumours - Make it stand out Figure 2: Various Relative Strength Ratios. | Select areas of and select stocks within the Technology complex are losing their relative strength dominance versus various market cap areas of the equity market. Please review your risk management tactics and reach out for charts of interest. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bc349f0c-0767-4104-9633-f327412253b3/energy.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rumours - Make it stand out Figure 3: Energy Correlation to Technology. | Considering the observations above (and Figure 4 below), this chart is especially intriguing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/725a7a7c-9975-4180-9efa-bef388763eea/wtic.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rumours - Make it stand out Figure 4: Light Crude Oil (continuous contract) with Rising 50-day MA (blue line). | While the near-term intraday price peaks haven’t been violated ($79.29, $79.60, $79.77), if viewed through the lens of closing prices, Crude Oil is breaking out to the upside and looks higher short-term. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-february-15-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-03-27 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-february-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-02-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/88027434-1722-412b-a543-6c537c0343be/ssxu-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-01.31.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4280a966-944c-4eef-824e-1424c39b3586/weakening-short-term-trend-baltic-dry-bearish-equity-exposure-02.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weakening Short-Term Trend in the Baltic Dry Index: Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4d6b44f3-e2ed-4f57-9874-2ef3a72b2fb7/breadth-manufacturing-purchasing-managers-indexes-pmi-01.31.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Breadth of Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e78e2ed0-8834-4362-bd12-fa85883fe38c/canada-markit-manufaturing-pmi-01.31.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5b23cd94-8eb3-4fec-a92f-cada683c742a/japan-relative-strength-trending-higher-02.02.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Japan Relative Strength Trending Higher https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c3ac155d-8b57-4a2a-93c8-a6ae25ea816e/msci-uk-relative-strength-trading-significantly-below-trend-02.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: MSCI U.K. Relative Strength Trading Significantly Below Trend https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d9e29f8b-5e30-4db0-8313-64859e9a4696/eurozone-eurocoin-vs-real-gdp-01.31.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Eurozone EuroCOIN vs Real GDP https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/23c9d32c-3d04-4e3a-9cf0-aaa254631e72/msci-peru-index-local-currency-06.30.2011-01.31.2025.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: MSCI Peru Index – Local Currency https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-february-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-02-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bfab7721-ef73-4e00-84fd-4a9eb374c06a/ssfi-smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-01.31.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ef7e5532-2439-4a44-a9c2-0fc84d30e173/weakening-short-term-trend-baltic-dry-index-bearish-equity-exposure-02.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weakening Short-Term Trend in the Baltic Dry Index: Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3c27a9aa-1a62-4e99-ab8e-4a24c15ff3a7/10-yea Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: 10-Year Treasury Yield https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c9cb43c0-0108-42e9-8a5a-179dc5bb8df7/short-term-trend-bullish-us-high-yield-bonds-02.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Short-Term Trend is Bullish for U.S. High Yield Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8378ca20-045e-4ebb-afd4-8dd850629020/rising-credit-default-swaps-bearish-us-investment-grade-corporate-bonds-02.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Rising Credit Default Swaps is Bearish for U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1dcb054f-3602-44d1-bcbc-da454ee9c73a/rising-inflation-expectation-bearish-us-long-term-treasurys-02.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Rising Inflation Expectations is Bearish for U.S. Long Term Treasurys https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1c60ac5b-07d9-4bc4-a6da-fa3e9b95b869/weak-relative-strength-index-bearish-tips-02.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Weak Relative Strength Index is Bearish for TIPS https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-february-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-02-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1a3b4ac5-4b3b-4bc5-b834-81eca878d247/ssus-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-01.31.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/55c835a8-52ec-4b39-a4d7-4e873ee6300a/weakening-short-term-trend-baltic-dry-index-bearish-equity-exposure-02.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weakening Short-Term Trend in the Baltic Dry Index: Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/29cf7066-b9c9-4d5e-8be9-38dde8e7a807/sp500-gics-sector-monthly-performance-12.31.2023-01.31.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 GICS Sector Monthly Performance (12/31/2023-01/31/2024) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/de0cdda1-ce46-4162-8cab-4784bcb47bdc/low-market-basied-inflation-expectations-bullish-sp500-information-technology-sector-01.31.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Lower Market-Based Inflation Expectations: Bullish for the S&P 500 Information Technology Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e5bd1233-8cc2-49df-81b3-50bff3767b0b/improving-economic-surprises-bullish-sp500-financials-sector-01.31.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Improving Economic Surprises: Bullish for the S&P 500 Financials Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1fd8c446-2052-45ea-acb6-5fdae53c91f8/weak-earnings-suprises-bearish-sp500-consumer-discretionary-sector-01.26.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weak Earnings Surprises are Bearish for the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7b40759f-e12c-4d92-92eb-7bbbd9f4fe3d/weakening-relative-price-momentum-bearish-sp500-industrials-sector-02.01.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update February 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Weakening Relative Price Momentum is Bearish for the S&P 500 Industrials Sector https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-february-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-02-06 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-and-smart-sector-update-february-06-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-02-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1707237652996-PMB6HA1SYLSTGC68NNCG/day-hagan-tech-talk-02.06.2024-flat.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Punxsutawney Phil, Large Cap Bulls, and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8eb38f65-d1a7-44e7-95b0-aa268432aed2/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Punxsutawney Phil, Large Cap Bulls, and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 Large Cap (growth) Index. | Proximity to support (green lines and price labels—blue arrows) is important as the divergence between “Index Movers and the broader market” grows. “Pullbacks are the market’s way of correcting that.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ecd06435-7c5f-4348-81ff-c0f6a9b4f87f/xlc.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Punxsutawney Phil, Large Cap Bulls, and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 2: Communication Services proxy with internal measuring tools. | For the second consecutive month, this sector received an overweight allocation, prior to the huge rallies by META and AMZN. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7caa682b-6b0f-4493-9fa4-328315b28bf5/dow-industrials.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Punxsutawney Phil, Large Cap Bulls, and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 3: Dow Industrials Four-Year Presidential Cycle. | Historically, election years are volatile for the first few months/quarters but are followed by a stronger second half. Consolidation is common during the early stages of an election year. February has historically been a choppy month. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a28e3bbb-dbf6-4b31-8784-f13ab727cff0/dax.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Punxsutawney Phil, Large Cap Bulls, and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 4: German Stock Market index (DAX). | While there are definite periods of rolling volatility, in both directions, long-term base breakouts lend themselves to long-term moves in the same direction. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/afb57191-869e-4c07-b476-c35c9a2aa026/prglad.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Punxsutawney Phil, Large Cap Bulls, and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 5: Global Advance/Decline Line and Poland. | Likely due to its heavy technology weighting, the U.S. is still the strongest market based on relative strength analysis. However, this Global A/D Line implies select opportunities exist outside of the U.S. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/468da17f-9927-43c7-ae03-abf1a025b0eb/vtip.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Punxsutawney Phil, Large Cap Bulls, and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 6: Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities proxy. | In considering momentum (top frame), resistance (red line), and support (green line), given a bit more price weakness (a chart breakdown) and/or lower inflation readings, this could get very interesting, to the downside. Stay tuned, stay alert (and stay safe). https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-big-sky monthly 0.5 2024-02-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c75a2caa-3136-4188-ba86-e7572b239d91/day-hagan-tech-talk-01.30.2024-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Big Sky - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eada8515-39ad-4662-8b09-e08438ddde9a/qqq.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Big Sky - Make it stand out Figure 1: Performance Since October 2022 – figures in white box on right. | Identify price support (please see NOTE below) while implementing a risk management discipline. I feel the odds favor that the rate of ascent will/should slow and, at some point, change. Especially if the equity market broadens again and the recent negative divergences are alleviated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/35fa0627-564a-43aa-8f84-b591ef34888b/aiq.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Big Sky - Make it stand out Figure 2: Performance Since October 2022 – figures in white box on right. | Identify price support while implementing a risk management discipline. I feel the odds favor that the rate of ascent will/should slow and, at some point, change. Especially if the equity market broadens again and the recent negative divergences are alleviated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7037b45d-ff74-459d-8dc6-39d5b0201f19/exp.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Big Sky - Make it stand out Figure 3: Performance Since October 2022 – figures in white box on right. | Identify price support while implementing a risk management discipline (tighten stop loss points, at a minimum) if you are involved in any of these. I feel the odds favor that the rate of ascent will/should slow, and at some point, change. Especially if the equity market broadens again and the negative divergences are alleviated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c16f5e80-80d5-4eef-96aa-4175beb89a01/nvda.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Big Sky - Make it stand out Figure 4: Performance Since October 2022 – figures in white boxes on right. | Identify price support and tighten stops, minimum. I feel the odds favor that the rate of ascent will/should slow, and, at some point, change. Especially if the equity market broadens and the negative divergences are alleviated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4375f09c-385b-4087-8b0b-f39823f94921/amd.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Big Sky - Make it stand out Figure 5: Performance Since October 2022 – figures in white box on right. | Identify price support and tighten stops, at a minimum. I feel the odds favor that the rate of ascent will/should slow, and at some point, change. Especially if the equity market broadens and the negative divergences are alleviated. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-january-23-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-02-16 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-top-heavy-again monthly 0.5 2024-01-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1705429168369-9RDAMEAHKT0KCPE052I2/day-hagan-tech-talk-01.16.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Top Heavy Again - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/575227ce-e194-4b2f-8288-2f27221e8a4a/nyse-common-stock-only.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Top Heavy Again - Make it stand out Figure 1: Advance Decline Lines for Select Large Cap (mostly) Equity Indices. |While the SPX, NDX, and DJIA flirt with new highs (charts not shown here, see further below), various A/D lines are not moving in sync and are recording lower peaks/moving lower. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/02bebc36-b716-4b63-8942-ab3d9b5b59a5/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Top Heavy Again - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500. | We hope a time correction occurs, but a violation of 4700 to 4682 will increase the odds of a price correction and open a stair-step move down towards 4600+/-. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/91ab870f-2d56-4ccc-ada7-8a79c630b5df/compq.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Top Heavy Again - Make it stand out Figure 3: NASDAQ. | The area in and around 14,500 should have, and has, provided the means for a bounce. A break under the recent low in and around 14,477 (green horizontal line) would open a move towards the next area of support in and around 14,000 (narrow blue shape—December low). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fdfac418-0668-42b0-b22c-02cf45c6a39d/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Top Heavy Again - Make it stand out Figure 4: Small Cap Proxy. | To say the inability to follow through after a big upside breakout is a disappointment is an understatement. Please use resistance (price labels and red lines) and support (price labels and green line) accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/30754192-b7f0-4f96-a8b0-15605a71a4a1/indu.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Top Heavy Again - Make it stand out Figure 5: Dow Jones Industrial Average. | Please use the thumbnail chart on the right in order to better discern initial support levels (green lines). https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-occams-razor monthly 0.5 2024-01-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/04eca70d-3193-4986-ad6d-181ac96062de/day-hagan-tech-talk-01.09.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Occam’s Razor - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/930f4d51-6494-4be6-b2bd-93de8276a42e/compq.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Occam’s Razor - Make it stand out Figure 1: NASDAQ – weekly data. | NASDAQ closed at 14,533 the day before the December 2023 Fed meeting. Last Friday’s intraday low was 14,477, giving back all of the rally since the Fed meeting. The support area in and around 14,500 (blue arrows) should have, and has, provided the means for a bounce. A break under last Friday’s low of 14,477 (upper green horizontal line) would open a move towards the next area of support in and around 14,000 (lower green horizontal line—December low). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d727f128-4092-4050-9ef8-721711b2109e/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Occam’s Razor - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500. |A correction can come in price (February-March 2023, August-October 2023) or in time (April-May 2023). We hope it is the latter, but a violation of 4700 to 4682 will open a stair-step move down towards the December low of 4600+/-. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-january-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-01-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a46d564d-5266-4986-8806-722134fac6f3/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-12.29.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/77c5ca1e-b618-4f0e-b475-98a858d8d38b/rising-relative-strength-bullish-equity-exposure-01.02.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Rising Relative Strength is Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/af2a3440-c8c9-49f9-9138-276d079e4769/10-year-treasury-yield-around-first-fed-rate-cuts.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Treasury Yields Fall Into The First Rate Cut https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b5a83fa7-627b-4bc2-ae28-190f0c658087/lower-bond-volatility-bullish-us-investment-grade-corporate-12.29.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Lower Bond Volatility is Bullish for U.S. Investment Grade Corporate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4a49e38e-bff8-4a8c-9aef-b57267e62bd8/relative-strength-bullish-emerging-market-bonds-12.29.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Relative Strength is Bullish for Emerging Market Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/df4283fa-9b23-4320-b7f8-1d9238f2ae3c/short-term-trend-bearish-us-floating-rate-notes-12.29.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Short-Term Trend is Bearish for U.S. Floating Rate Notes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5fbee49b-2d6f-476b-85bd-3db495b76a14/strong-us-equity-market-trend-bearish-us-long-term-treasurys-12.29.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Strong U.S. Equity Market Trend is Bearish for U.S. Long-Term Treasurys https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-january-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-01-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7dd96a0f-c3c4-4c0f-9f92-708ad6856c05/ssxu-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-12.05.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4376ab93-a241-4369-8da0-9af3e9fac01b/rising-relative-strength-bullish-equity-exposure-2024.01.02.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Rising Relative Strength is Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/99aa053e-8789-4fea-a4f2-f4d73f6561b2/global-purchasing-managaer-composite-index-modest-growth-2023.11.30.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global Purchasing Manager Composite Index Indicating Modest Growth https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a6075d13-2272-4f65-aab0-82a54d644795/oecd-composite-leading-indicators-canada-improving-economies-2023.12.12.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) for Canada Improving Relative to Other Economies https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c4feaa93-3f24-4bc9-8177-5041564d0d3e/msci-australia-price-return-index-2024.01.02.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: MSCI Australia Price Return Index (in local currency) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dfe366e1-a738-4beb-9071-0efabb5952d4/msci-uk-relative-strength-remains-downtrend-2024.01.02.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: MSCI U.K. Relative Strength Remains in a Downtrend https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8839cdb7-f52c-49ea-99c1-c48675a93681/europe-ex-uk-forward-earnings-growth-rolling-over-2023.12.29.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Europe ex. U.K. Forward Earnings Growth Rolling Over https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4a53ddb7-d388-451d-b661-df42f58470f4/msci-south-africa-2024.01.02.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 8: South Africa https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-january-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-01-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a4943f36-5155-44bd-9ddf-369e31723f66/ssus-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-12.29.203.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2024 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2b2163c1-efec-42ab-afca-9154cc7680b8/rising-relative-strength-bullish-equity-exposure-01.02.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Rising Relative Strength is Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/793da289-9c05-4ea1-b62e-52725d36e0e3/sp500-around-first-fed-rate-cuts.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 Around First Fed Rate Cuts https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ffa7817f-bade-4187-a458-abd02ce0769a/sp500-consumer-discretionary-sector-short-term-trend-bullish-12.29.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 4: S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector's Short-Term Trend is Bullish https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4e827b20-ea32-4a9b-87b8-01422d55e3ab/improving-breadth-bullish-sp500-information-technology-sector-12.29.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Improving Breadth is Bullish for the S&P 500 Information Technology Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c43d0678-2422-4bea-b05e-3a8e67b8f72c/widening-spreads-bearish-sp500-communication-services-sector-12.29.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Widening Spreads is Bearish for the S&P 500 Communication Services Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/366ab47c-7f2b-4878-9365-cdef5d4c5ae4/weakening-median-earnings-yield-bearish-sp500-materials-sector-12.29.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update January 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Weakening Median Earnings Yield is Bearish for the S&P 500 Materials Sector https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-january-5-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-01-05 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-are-you-willing-to-bend monthly 0.5 2024-01-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1704212589126-EB7VN57IHJGF6TMJCPTN/day-hagan-tech-talk-01.02.2024-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are You Willing To Bend? - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7ce28e7e-df4a-464f-94ff-513488768c93/2023+performance.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are You Willing To Bend? - Make it stand out Figure 1: 2023 Performance. | While the last eight weeks went “gangbuster to the upside” (dashed vertical line), the majority of 2023 was a chop-fest for most domestic equity market proxies other than Large Cap Growth—please refer to the unchanged line. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1d4da124-1d77-41da-bd46-e7eee5a380d0/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are You Willing To Bend? - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with Relative Strength Index (RSI). | I am unsure of the extent to which new year flows (equity market inflows versus profit taking) will affect trading as 2024 begins. However, considering proximity to resistance (2022 all-time highs), a small negative momentum divergence (RSI), a contraction in New Highs, and still-extreme bullish sentiment, don’t be surprised by some profit taking. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fd1b91e2-75e4-449b-94e9-26072aa60201/wall-street-forecast-for-2024.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are You Willing To Bend? - Make it stand out Figure 3: Wall Street Forecast for 2024 (Source: X/Twitter). | In December 2022, most Wall Street strategists predicted negative returns for 2023. Will anyone get it right in 2024? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/034f1e31-a4f4-434e-950d-b59b42c48e6a/mutual-fund-and-etf.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are You Willing To Bend? - Make it stand out Figure 4: Mutual Fund and ETF Flows (Source: X/Twitter). | Considering Wall Street strategists’ negative outlooks in December 2022, this chart shouldn’t be surprising. It is noteworthy because of the potential buying power it depicts. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e8398c35-f6ce-4ab6-83e2-410653a85223/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are You Willing To Bend? - Make it stand out Figure 5: Small Cap Proxy with Momentum (monthly data). | The stock market rarely repeats itself exactly, but it often rhymes. In this case, if the current surge in monthly momentum sticks (green circle) and their extremely overbought condition gets resolved, Small Caps (and the average stock) may finally get some love. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/03b4b92c-a302-444f-b184-32531eae478f/ust10y.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are You Willing To Bend? - Make it stand out Figure 6: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (log chart) with momentum (monthly data, lower frame). | While interest rates still have room to move on the downside, until proven otherwise I believe a new long-term interest rate regime (higher) is still at hand. Near-term (please reach out for a chart), the rubber band is very stretched to the downside and due to snap back. Don’t be surprised by a reflex higher in interest rates in and around Friday’s employment report. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e210665d-6cc7-427c-88cb-9b328235b4ad/us-dollar.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are You Willing To Bend? - Make it stand out Figure 7: U.S. Dollar Index with momentum (MACD). | Short-term rally by the U.S. Dollar Index may be part of a headwind for equities as 2024 begins. From a non-trading perspective, please see the verbiage inside the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0f175b6f-12f9-47e7-b612-11347409cf96/light-crude-oil.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are You Willing To Bend? - Make it stand out Figure 8: Light Crude and Gasoline. | Supportive of the economy/consumer, but maybe not the sector. The longer these remain rangebound, the better. Green lines = support; red lines = resistance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/44a0a1f5-fbfe-46cd-9246-2e944cd39ec5/s-and-p-500-cycle-composite-for-2024.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are You Willing To Bend? - Make it stand out Figure 9: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2024. | This chart suggests a volatile first 6 months of 2024, followed by a favorable back half, after the presidential election resolves. Not something many Wall Street strategists are expecting. Don’t be surprised. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a6fa5bb0-e585-45f6-8634-85b1b18c3ffb/gold.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are You Willing To Bend? - Make it stand out Figure 10: Gold – Continuous Contract (monthly log chart). | Will Gold’s bullish chart configuration finally take hold in 2024, longer term? My answer: Yes, based on the chart configuration. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7d42ff12-988c-4fa8-bc18-5b87c31edd10/kweb.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Are You Willing To Bend? - Make it stand out Figure 11: China Internet proxy and Emerging Markets ex China proxy. | Notice the disparity in performance since the October 2022 low (vertical line). These are further areas of potential opportunity very few are discussing, especially since “everyone” was bullish towards China going into 2023. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-year-end-and-new-year-insights monthly 0.5 2024-01-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d3f003c6-9d0a-43a2-b982-52b6e3e4a8c4/day-hagan-tech-talk-12-26-2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Year-End and New Year Insights - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-willing-to-listen monthly 0.5 2023-12-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/610480d5-cd81-497c-b4fe-6ba3cff8ca52/day-hagan-tech-talk-12.19.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: If You Are Willing To Listen… - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/53432fef-26d9-4b88-a048-f90e48b667fd/rsp.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: If You Are Willing To Listen… - Make it stand out Figure 1: Equal Weight vs. Capitalization Weight. | While more work is needed (see red horizontal resistance line), since interest rates peaked in late October and especially after interest rates broke down in mid-November, it looks like a trend change is taking place, favoring broader equity market participation—bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9ca4efca-ee4e-43b0-9d27-586268922727/sml.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: If You Are Willing To Listen… - Make it stand out Figure 2: Select Equity Market Proxies Performance Since November 13. | If interest rates don’t spike higher again, there is more room for this relationship (broader market participation) to move higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bf93eed4-05b9-4e29-9cb4-5e7ef2f7884d/bkx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: If You Are Willing To Listen… - Make it stand out Figure 3: Bank Index and Bank Index vs. S&P 500. | Short-term, too far, too fast. However, from a non-trading, pure price perspective, I like what I see. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5b8bf0b2-e937-4785-8ee8-c81745f921b7/ipo.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: If You Are Willing To Listen… - Make it stand out Figure 4: Renaissance IPO Index (bullish sentiment extreme, a different perspective). | With the lower quality parts of the equity market showing price strength, is the transition from a bearish chart configuration to a bullish chart configuration bearish (too much bullish optimism)? Or not? https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-an-early-peek-into-2024 monthly 0.5 2023-12-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1702407479781-4HM55VPQOA9WSEDJ1QLT/day-hagan-tech-talk-12.12.2023-flat-1200x627px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: An Early Peek Into 2024 - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3da0ef4a-3f37-4054-85f6-17118dcec472/s-and-p-500-cycle-composite-cropped.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: An Early Peek Into 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2024 – trend is more important than level. | This implies a choppy first half but a better second half. NDR states, “This is consistent with our macro expectations as slowing growth, fiscal tightening, and election uncertainty are expected to give way to a more constructive second half… but as always, if and when we reduce our… equity allocation will be based on our models.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bd37faab-ee9f-47fc-8542-01ed1b774a61/dow-industrials-presidential-election-cycle.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: An Early Peek Into 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Dow Industrials – Presidential Election Year Cycle II. | On average, the stock market bottoms during May of election years (thick black line), but the average can be deceiving. Often, rallies begin once election uncertainty lifts. NDR notes, “Given the likely close Biden/Trump rematch, election uncertainty could overhang the market after May…. Returns tend to be weaker when the incumbent party loses. Whether the market is weak because of uncertainty over a new administration, or a poor economy hurts both the incumbent and the stock market is open to debate, but a hard landing would likely damage Biden’s bid to stay in office as well as the stock market’s bid to stay in a bull market.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f5a9f87f-a6a3-4a9b-b0e1-6d93f9acd836/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: An Early Peek Into 2024 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 – 2-year chart. | While many sentiment indicators continue to exhibit “exuberant” readings (too much bullishness), the internal composite of the NDR Catastrophic Stop Loss model (technical component) remains supportive of equities. The SPX is emerging up from its multi-week consolidation range. Note: The sentiment readings don’t represent a signal (sell) but a condition (many Wall Street participants have already bought). The sell signal, based on these sentiment readings, won’t occur until they reverse and decline in earnest. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-december-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-12-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/646bebb3-e615-4f1f-8069-302f21057f63/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-12.05.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1e903d99-62e2-4bec-acd0-9611a8422ed3/percentage-msci-markets-above-50-day-moving-average-bullish-equity-exposure-11.30.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: : % of MSCI Markets Above 50-Day Moving Average: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ccb4733c-24ed-4270-9c45-21b8de328bf3/investment-grade-corporate-performance-us-aggregate-12.01.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Investment Grade Corporate Performance Relative to the Float Adjusted U.S. Aggregate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8dc4ff61-4a04-44db-8d5a-3ae40ced7656/short-term-price-trends-bullish-us-investment-grade-corporte-2023.12.01.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Short-Term Price Trend: Bullish for U.S. Investment Grade Corporate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e1949d44-446d-4841-8d83-e9c3526e7fc0/strong-emerging-market-equity-momentum-bullish-emerging-market-bonds-12.01.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Strong Emerging Market Equity Momentum: Bullish for Emerging Market Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2aa82bc1-9b5a-4a51-8285-4db7f0f9b734/weakening-momentum-bearish-us-floating-rate-notes-12.01.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weakening Momentum is Bearish for U.S. Floating Rate Notes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a8855319-8f1c-4632-9321-7ff1795193c8/weakening-relative-strength-bearish-international-investment-grade-12.01.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Weakening Relative Strength: Bearish for International Investment Grade https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-december-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-12-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c8457ad1-e06c-49e5-bb61-7919012b06d5/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-12.05.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector Catastrophic Stop Sell Model image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c4413df6-5600-4963-9e32-ce41f27857d2/percent-msci-markets-above-50-day-moving-average-bullish-equity-exposure-2020.11.30-2023.11.30.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: % of MSCI Markets Above 50-Day Moving Average: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8fddfa93-a717-4762-8a67-f449ac345f2a/global-purchasing-manager-indexes-10.31.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global Purchasing Manager Indexes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f5d5cfce-4b51-487f-960b-8a1eb1776374/msci-germany-12.01.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: MSCI Germany https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/337ab28f-0fed-43ea-a705-bdae8455fa4c/ishares-msci-canada-etf-ewc-12.01.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a9b1e6ac-f602-465c-ab32-2741de82f2ff/uk-markit-manufacturing-purchasing-managers-index-pmi-11.30.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: United Kingdom Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5e5ea582-fed1-466a-9e6f-f842d2c623bc/china-composite-pmi-three-month-change-vs-msci-china-10.31.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: China Composite PMI (Three-Month Change) vs. MSCI China https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3fcfbadf-966a-4ec2-aea8-01c281f0589a/msci-india-trailing-earnings-percent-companies-positive-earnings-11.30.2024.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: MSCI India Trailing Earnings and % of Companies with Positive Earnings Revisions https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-december-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-12-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d8ebf6a5-ab30-47c3-a7f9-e6c1c357963a/dhndr-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-12.05.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d0344de1-07e4-4947-9a01-65867bf67fdc/percentage-msci-markets-above-50-day-moving-average-equity-exposure-11.30.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: % of MSCI Markets Above 50-Day Moving Average: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/77066ad8-d88b-4ef3-b98e-ca75ebc02a97/sp500-gics-sector-monthly-performance-10312023-11302023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 GICS Sector Monthly Performance (10/31/2023 -11/30/2023) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8224d9a5-e4e9-4dd1-bd67-05089fcf839e/improving-internediate-ter-breadth-bullish-sp500-consumer-discretionary-sector-12012023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Improving Intermediate-Term Breadth is Bullish for the S&P 5oo Consumer Discretionary Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bf42fa43-6b8a-4b45-bbfc-78eae564b44c/rising-crude-oil-prices-bullish-sp500-energy-sector012.01.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Rising Crude Oil Prices are Bullish for the S&P 500 Energy Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/efcada8a-a854-4e7b-b717-b01c8a099e06/weakening-relative-breadth-bearish-sp500-utilities-sector-12.01.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weakening Relative Breadth is Bearish for the S&) 500 Utilities Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/006c8e05-8b8d-4ae5-8d95-742953c886ae/weakening-economic-surprises-bearish-sp500-financial-sector-12.01.2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update December 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Weakening Economic Surprises is Bearish for the S&P 500 Financials Sector https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-the-non-magnificent-493 monthly 0.5 2023-12-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1701804550314-O7GS5GQZ6J3CSP90LFXG/day-hagan-tech-talk-12.05.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Non-Magnificent 493 - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e07edef0-8ff7-4224-a54b-de30142c03c0/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Non-Magnificent 493 - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 with MACD (momentum) – weekly data. | Despite the move up off the October lows from both 2022 and 2023, this large cap growth proxy has yet to break out of a multi-year consolidation pattern. Going forward, the quality of a pullback/consolidation in terms of depth, breadth, and sentiment will be an important guidepost. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/482f5444-2aef-4130-91b9-b0cdad9ed609/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Non-Magnificent 493 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Small Cap proxy with MACD (momentum) – weekly data. | If the domestic equity market broadens out in terms of upside participation, this complex should benefit. If that does not occur, continue to think “range-bound” and invest/trade accordingly. Going forward, the quality of a pullback/consolidation in terms of depth, breadth, and sentiment will be an important guidepost. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8bb8ff1b-e1a2-4c03-b438-851626e4b27f/compq.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Non-Magnificent 493 - Make it stand out Figure 3: NASDAQ with MACD (momentum) – weekly data. | Despite all the commotion surrounding this complex (2021 up, 2022 down, 2023 up and sideways), NASDAQ has yet to record a long-term breakout. Strictly from a price perspective (lower frame), the time is right for a pullback/consolidation. Ideally this occurs as investment/trading dollars find a new home versus going to cash. Please reach out for near-term support levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/85d8783f-76af-46e6-bb28-d0bb92207603/tnx-revised.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Non-Magnificent 493 - Make it stand out Figure 4: CBOE 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Index (TNX). | At this point, given proximity to support, I wouldn’t be surprised to see interest rates rally and bonds fall. How far and for how long? Their reaction to Friday’s employment report (12/8/23), the November CPI report (12/12/23), and the FOMC announcement (12/13/23) will be a good guidepost. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-december-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-12-04 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-continued-rally-or-potential-pullbacks monthly 0.5 2023-12-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/543715a9-8932-452b-9c63-82f742052d4f/day-hagan-tech-talk-11.28.2023-flat-1200x627px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Continued Rally or Potential Pullbacks? - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/98d4e932-11ba-4ec9-8f88-d908daf315e0/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Continued Rally or Potential Pullbacks? - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 with momentum (MACD). | With momentum waning (top frame), the SPX has approached an area of resistance, as shown by the downtrend line connecting the January 2022 all-time high and the July 2023 price peak. Ideally, this produces some profit-taking. The quality of any pullback/consolidation period in terms of depth, breadth, and sentiment will be an important guidepost. Considering favorable seasonals, the Bulls have the ball. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/016cce3f-2b66-431e-ab7f-fe6c4284cf83/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Continued Rally or Potential Pullbacks? - Make it stand out Figure 2: Small Cap proxy. | The “January Effect” happens when small caps outperform during the last half of December, after tax-loss selling. Before we can expect this, IWM needs to decisively close above its most immediate reaction price peak (resistance). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/539ca75e-365e-46e9-8e0a-1df0e5cb8cef/s-and-p-500-large-cap.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Continued Rally or Potential Pullbacks? - Make it stand out Figure 3: Year-to-Date Performance and Internal Equity Market Measuring Tools. | These indicators will need to exceed their prior peaks (blue vertical lines) if and when equity market proxies do. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1d0b7f94-f2c4-4ac6-a5a1-17c08fff0abf/nyse-new-highs.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Continued Rally or Potential Pullbacks? - Make it stand out Figure 4: Various Internal Equity Market Measuring Tools. | These indicators will need to exceed their respective prior peaks if and when equity market proxies do. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/19b11a20-db1f-42d1-860b-bb303589b656/mid-cap-new-highs.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Continued Rally or Potential Pullbacks? - Make it stand out Figure 5: Mid Cap and NASDAQ New Highs https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-random-thanksgiving-observations monthly 0.5 2024-04-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2432671b-79e5-4482-8e67-896b0e38e299/day-hagan-tech-talk-11.20.2023-flat-1200x627px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Random But Pertinent Thanksgiving Week Observations - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0da3db75-5843-4bda-9c29-2c8346d29a3e/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Random But Pertinent Thanksgiving Week Observations - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 – includes early 2022 high. | SPX has moved close to previous price peaks (resistance). The quality of any pullback/consolidation period going forward, in terms of depth, breadth, and sentiment, will be an important guidepost. Right now, with favorable seasonals and the 90% session discussed in the summary, the Bulls have the ball. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/89c974e1-4c03-432a-81d5-c32d80ccd05d/cycle-composite-2023.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Random But Pertinent Thanksgiving Week Observations - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2023. Through 11/16/23. | While trend is more important than level, this has been very accurate in 2023, as it was in 2022. Based on this chart, we currently appear to be at the point of some downside/choppiness/consolidation before a topside run into yearend. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d557a510-f334-4b86-a31d-6bf8c3d8fd87/elite-eight.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Random But Pertinent Thanksgiving Week Observations - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 Index vs. Elite Eight (Cap-Weighted). As of 11/16/23. | This chart supports my belief that 2023 has been a difficult year away from Large Cap Growth/Technology. NDR’s Elite Eight index has soared 71.06% year-to-date. Excluding the Elite Eight, the S&P 500 is up 3.75%. As NDR noted, “Diversifying via asset classes and within equities has been a challenging strategy in 2023.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cc3962ac-78d1-421f-bc2f-d2752e249409/ewz.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Random But Pertinent Thanksgiving Week Observations - Make it stand out Figure 4: Brazil proxy with momentum and relative strength—weekly data. | I also discussed this during last week’s Chart Jamboree. Please let us know if you would like to discuss the Smart Sector International ex. U.S. strategy. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a388bc4-ea22-41fa-a387-c3a7f346618e/s-and-p-1500.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Random But Pertinent Thanksgiving Week Observations - Make it stand out Figure 5: S&P 1500 Top and Bottom 10% Based on Performance from 1/1-8/31. | “As shown below, YTD Losers tend to outperform starting 11/1 (~2/3rds of the time) by an average of 4% or so after underperforming in the peak tax loss selling season (9/1-10/7). This is top 10% YTD winners vs. Top 10% losers, but the data works for nearly every cohort of winners and losers one looks at. This year in November, we have seen the ‘winners’ getting ‘winner-ier.’ No reversion to the mean trade yet… We believe it’s coming….” https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-november-2023 monthly 0.5 2024-01-24 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-inflection-point monthly 0.5 2023-11-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1699371226681-BCOCWCTJ7QAQHDLELL84/day-hagan-tech-talk-11.07.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Inflection Point?! - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5cfafb8f-d395-4270-8e98-dcf52b0b452f/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Inflection Point?! - Make it stand out Figure 1: NYSE Advance – Decline Line (all issues) and S&P 500. | Resistance levels are highlighted by red lines, and support levels by green. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1ac1c270-2451-40b5-b45d-f048e355ab0c/indu.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Inflection Point?! - Make it stand out Figure 2: DJIA, NASDAQ, and Small Cap proxy. | Resistance highlighted by red lines, support by green. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a02fbefc-3c2c-41ca-a3d3-0b3314877b80/tnx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Inflection Point?! - Make it stand out Figure 3: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield proxy. |The 45.5 to 45 area (4.55% to 4.50%) looks to be important support. Meanwhile 48 (4.80%) ought to be a formidable wall, at least on the first attempt to get above. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-november-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-11-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aeac71cb-687a-4bb3-8ea3-58b97e7f1e50/international-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector Catastrophic Stop Sell Model image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/178d0413-f89e-4956-8d17-821883dc78ae/widening-high-yield-option-adjusted-spreads-bearish-equity-exposure-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Widening High Yield Option-Adjusted Spreads: Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/15aa804c-7306-42b9-b1d0-b9e24d8c0a91/global-composite-pmi-vs-msci-acwi-2023.09.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global Composite PMI (Three-Month Change) vs. MSCI ACWI https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/12c36675-2e53-42c1-afcf-4a2fd9d222e9/australia-market-services-pmi-moved-exansionary-territory-2023.09.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Australia’s Markit Services PMI Moved Into Expansionary Territory https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/200dcb6c-9bf8-4c8a-99c9-fafe85a5c4b8/dsi-japan-sentiment-reverse-pessimistic-condition-2023.11.01.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: DSI Japan Sentiment Starting to Reverse from Pessimistic Condition https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ac72fab6-4e2b-47bf-8a6f-f400759703f8/high-yield-credit-spreads-widening-reflecting-increased-risks-2023.11.01.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: High Yield Credit Spreads Widening, Reflecting Increased Risks https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a9512f28-1575-4445-a9e6-16f5417e0af8/canadian-dollar-currency-basket-weaken-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Canadian Dollar (CAD) Currency Basket Continues to Weaken https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5210053f-8498-4947-9764-edf9245b5d2d/msci-taiwan-index-vs-msci-acwi-index-2023.11.01.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: MSCI Taiwan Index vs. MSCI ACWI Index https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-november-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-11-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ad03fa62-95f0-4469-a75e-7a8c30cf3bce/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/900f05eb-880b-45a9-84e8-7e4ca532359c/widening-high-yield-option-adjusted-spreads-bearish-equity-exposure-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Widening High Yield Option-Adjusted Spreads: Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4994094d-c141-45a9-9576-29c3a48c48ec/us-10-year-treasury-fair-value-model-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Fair Value Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9ed5af55-7d19-4e5f-9f2e-6df25ed29c71/widening-option-adjusted-spreads-bullish-us-floating-rate-notes-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Widening Option-Adjusted Spreads is Bullish for U.S. Floating Rate Notes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c2ebcfe0-23da-4b87-947b-3083f148f4e5/widening-option-adjusted-spreads-bullish-international-investment-grade-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Widening Option-Adjusted Spreads is Bullish for International Investment Grade https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/66328697-c194-4529-a4ba-604d5e7f519c/widening-option-adjusted-spreads-bullish-us-investment-grade-corporate-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Widening Option-Adjusted Spreads is Bullish for U.S. Investment Grade Corporate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d32b1481-5e70-4874-8d66-3b2ed912e2e5/weakening-us-equity-market-trend-neutral-long-term-treasury-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Weakening U.S. Equity Market Trend is Neutral for Long-Term Treasurys https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-november-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-11-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7e153565-7a7b-4e3b-9420-472f47a9b768/dhndr-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d1ebeaa5-5481-4aa6-b407-2c47b68bc97b/widening-high-yield-option-adjusted-spreads-bearish-equity-exposure-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Widening High Yield Option-Adjusted Spreads: Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/012c40df-c444-47f7-8d5b-0ec84fea6d0b/sp500-gics-sector-monthly-performance-10.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 GICS Sector Monthly Performance (09/30/2023 -10/31/2023) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/91a402a4-36ac-4aac-adfb-395339d8a9ef/steepening-yield-curve-bullish-sp500-communication-services-sector-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Steepening Yield Curve is Bullish for the S&P 500 Communication Services Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f3320402-19e9-4fbe-8783-c1680cf682aa/improving-short-term-price-trend-bullish-utilities-sector-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Improving Short-Term Price Trend Bullish for the Utilities Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ed00196c-904c-40bd-a328-83379c8e73ed/weak-earnings-surprises-bearish-sp500-consumer-discretionary-sector-2023.10.27.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weak Earnings Surprises are Bearish for the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b1d9c1b8-4453-4522-b007-61d2755e5e5c/relative-drawdown-bearish-sp500-health-care-sector-2023.10.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update November 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Relative Drawdown is Bearish for the S&P 500 Health Care Sector https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-november-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-11-06 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-peace-on-earth monthly 0.5 2023-11-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1698767331716-GTYHMYI1CLW5SC6EPKMC/day-hagan-tech-talk-10.31.2023-flat.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Peace on Earth, Good Will to All and/or Trick or Treat - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/77506551-715c-44dd-b9c3-cb1dc298db10/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Peace on Earth, Good Will to All and/or Trick or Treat - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 (SPX) with falling 50-day MA (resistance, dashed red line). | Within the context of a downtrend, at the intraday low last Friday the SPX was 2.5 standard deviations below its 50-day MA, statistically oversold. At the same time, it held support at 4100. We need to see indications of strong upside demand—a series of new breadth thrusts or an expanding number of new 52-week highs on a stock basis. Otherwise, the directional trend is likely to continue, or, at least, support will be retested. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/86dcc8b7-ff31-4ad1-a21f-c840ddd1ac1a/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Peace on Earth, Good Will to All and/or Trick or Treat - Make it stand out Figure 3: Small Cap proxy with stochastics (weekly data). | Despite a deeply oversold reading, more oversold than the COVID low in 2020, the bounce yesterday both on an actual and relative basis was anemic—concerning. If Small Caps are going to bounce, it needs to happen soon! https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-its-not-that-simple-or-is-it monthly 0.5 2023-10-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fedf01fb-9541-4a9f-ba65-d91e914004bf/day-hagan-tech-talk-10.24.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It’s Not That Simple, Or Is It? - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/18bd5da5-9d74-4ecc-9710-cc1abb252789/5-year-yield-proxy.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It’s Not That Simple, Or Is It? - Make it stand out Figure 1: Domestic Interest Rates (weekly data) with resistance (red) and support (green). The next layer of resistance for the 10-year yield is between 5.15% and 5.26%, not 5%. Until support is broken and/or the pattern described above changes, the weight of the evidence (directional trend) remains higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aa11eaaa-93a4-4d30-9277-b9e6563e14af/10-year-treasury-yield.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It’s Not That Simple, Or Is It? - Make it stand out Figure 2: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield. What new shock will be necessary to curtail this trend and create a bid for safety, the renewed buying of domestic Treasuries, and the start of a bottom-building process across the fixed income (and equity) spectrum? That has yet to be determined. Stay tuned. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b3474027-4e68-48e8-bbd4-a65ffc96cbd9/s-and-p-500.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It’s Not That Simple, Or Is It? - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 with momentum (MACD). Please see the verbiage inside the chart. However, to settle the argument about whether we’ll see more positive divergences and the start of price stability or a continuation of the downtrend, we need to see indications of strong upside demand, such as a series of new breadth thrusts or expanding new highs. Otherwise, the directional trend is likely to continue. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/082d670b-2a03-4014-991f-1481e51763ff/krx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It’s Not That Simple, Or Is It? - Make it stand out Figure 4: Regional and Big Bank Indices. We felt the bottoming process would be long and arduous, and it has been. Notice the layers of overhanging selling pressure (resistance—red lines). Until there is some resolve with the regional complex specifically, this is one of the anchors holding back small-cap proxies. In other words, as the regional banking complex goes, so go small-caps (Figure 5). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8ad9ed8b-df8f-4828-a294-deca270b38bd/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It’s Not That Simple, Or Is It? - Make it stand out Figure 5: Small Cap proxy with stochastics (weekly data). Deeply oversold, more so than at the COVID lows in 2020 (lower frame, green horizontal line) and near prior price troughs (support—top frame). If this is going to bounce, it needs to happen soon! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d0cfa88d-ed8f-4844-a66b-27079383f48a/aapl-xlk.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It’s Not That Simple, Or Is It? - Make it stand out Figure 6: Apple versus the Technology Index. If we lose AAPL relative to its peer group, meaning the relative strength line breaks down further and the stock continues to underperform its peer group, and considering its weighting in many domestic equity market indices, large-cap growth weighted indices will be hard-pressed not to “whoosh” lower. Watch closely. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e3a8db2f-67fa-4426-b02e-2e9efc9aeb0c/gold.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It’s Not That Simple, Or Is It? - Make it stand out Figure 7: Gold Contract and Gold proxy (monthly data). Inflation or not, this hasn’t been a good place to make money over the past few years other than occasional shorter-term trades. Considering Gold’s proximity to resistance (red horizontal lines) and unless a decisive topside breakout occurs, I maintain that Gold is a hedge against “Event Risk” at best. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-overhanging-selling-pressure-and-smart-sector-update monthly 0.5 2023-10-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d034344d-08ca-443d-8f3d-7a6f50eb91fa/day-hagan-tech-talk-10.17.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Overhanging Selling Pressure and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e3f4ea07-e5df-483f-a2d6-7ee50ba41a90/nyfang.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Overhanging Selling Pressure and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 1: NYSE Fang Plus Index with Stochastics. This index recently reversed from an overbought condition as the price neared a down-sloping resistance line. This has often identified higher risk periods, with major domestic equity markets often experiencing a whoosh lower. A violation of support between 7177 and 7163 would be concerning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c878d1f5-c6de-4656-a628-87f25a25bff3/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Overhanging Selling Pressure and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with supportive momentum (MACD-top frame), falling 50-day MA (resistance-red) and rising 200-day MA (support-blue). As overhanging selling pressure comes into play (between 4400+/- and 4445 +/-), pullbacks and/or consolidation periods accompanied by improving breadth would be bullish. Regardless, the SPX needs to break the pattern of lower price peaks and lower price troughs and rebuild a new underlying base of support. This is a work in progress supported by a favorable seasonal period. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/37b136e8-12d6-4f7a-9009-9d6445ec936c/util.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Overhanging Selling Pressure and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 3: Dow Jones Utility Average (log chart, weekly) – long-term view. Is the sector weighting so controversial after all, given the long-term uptrend line and oversold condition? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/12c191ca-ff14-4223-b92f-77267a1b37a7/inda.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Overhanging Selling Pressure and Smart Sector Update - Make it stand out Figure 4: iShares MSCI India (INDA) with 50-day MA and 200 MA. A close below $43, the lower horizontal green support line (top frame), would damage the bullish absolute price chart configuration. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-just-one-more-thing monthly 0.5 2023-10-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1696957995145-WN5KZ68PM34N2Z0OHBT5/day-hagan-tech-talk-10.10.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Just One More Thing - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/52d9d8d1-21b1-4f29-ae61-0a97a02a4ab2/hyioas.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Just One More Thing - Make it stand out Figure 1: U.S. High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread. | “No stress in the system; the economy is fine.” This chart suggests otherwise. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/495abd10-550d-4dc4-9801-bf376730abca/natgas.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Just One More Thing - Make it stand out Figure 2: Natural Gas and 30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield. | While the decline in gasoline (thankfully) lends some credence to the narrative that inflation is behind us, rising interest rates (new cycle highs) and Natural Gas prices suggest otherwise. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4abbebac-c3d8-4e02-b515-275f7070e61b/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Just One More Thing - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 50-day MA and 200-day MA. | A confluence of support between 4200+/- and 4150 was tested in early October and held. Now we need to see how the SPX handles gap resistance in and around 4400 and the declining 50-day MA, currently at 4419, and maybe 4450+/-. I think there will be some more upside probing, but more work is needed to break the pattern of lower price peaks and start some lateral base building. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/28c49987-d572-45f8-b3e1-84f8bdaeda9d/event.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Just One More Thing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4f9dd035-9894-4fec-a9b0-ef96394ad936/crisis-events-2.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Just One More Thing - Make it stand out Figure 4: Crisis Events. | Considering the weekend events overseas, below is a list of crisis events and subsequent performances since 1907 from Ned Davis Research. “On average, during the crisis events, the DJIA has declined an average of -7.1%, but one month later has been up +4.2%.” https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-october-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-10-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/95f3a63b-f70f-4930-81c4-a67868149c9e/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-international-2023.09.29.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector Catastrophic Stop Sell Model image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/368657fc-aee2-4328-84c6-4ed387cd9545/volume-supply-exceeding-demand-bearish-equity-exposure-2023.10.02.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Volume Supply Exceeding Demand: Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/612daeb2-49f1-4b9d-9db7-e3b0268edd4b/ndr-global-recession-probability-model-indicating-low-recession-risk-2023.09.30.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: NDR Global Recession Probability Model Indicating Low Recession Risk https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2f135851-e21b-4e5e-8632-1f479e027adb/msci-australie-10-year-real-annualized-price-returns-based-price-average-10-year-earnings-2023.09.30.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: MSCI Australia 10-Year Real Annualized Price Returns Based on Price/Average 10-Year Earnings https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f6722b7a-7e85-4636-84c7-c33419a53dd8/chinas-improving-pmi-bodes-well-for-japan-2023.09.14.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: China’s Improving PMI Bodes Well for Japan https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9bc6a706-abb2-43bb-8596-90e442534913/uk-relative-purchasing-managers-index-pmi-reflects-weak-outlook-2023.09.14.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: U.K. Relative Purchasing Mangers Index (PMI) Reflects Weak Outlook https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/82a60f8e-9acf-40ca-b728-e4323d54923c/europe-ex-uk-relative-oecd-composite-leading-indicators-cli-weakening-2023.09.11.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Europe ex. U.K. Relative OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) Weakening https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7c573d11-a621-4013-b8fe-55084b1f1784/msci-india-trailing-earnings-and-percentage-of-companies-w-positive-earnings-revisions-2024.08.31.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: MSCI India Trailing Earnings and % of Companies with Positive Earnings Revisions https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-october-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-10-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/93868cdf-725f-4ca6-9ecd-d633580d0613/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-2023.09.29.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0dbe707c-a196-426a-9a88-38a22131cffb/volume-supply-exceeding-demand-bearish-equity-exposure-2023.10.02.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Volume Supply Exceeding Demand: Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/93804ee6-41fe-4f20-ae78-eab26df30f38/yields-on-key-treasury-securities-2023.09.29.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Yields on Key Treasury Securities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2db2dd42-1ad1-470a-b7de-4f3a591fedba/rising-commodity-price-trends-bullish-us-tips-2023.09.29.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Rising Commodity Price Trends are Bullish for U.S. TIPS https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d9dec63b-1c2e-4a0b-b839-fd6d4d21a39c/rising-relative-strength-bullish-international-investment-grade-2023.09.29.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Rising Relative Strength: Bullish for International Investment Grade https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6bd0e3ba-4623-4a87-bb3b-93c4af1917b7/weak-sector-breadth-bearish-us-high-yield-bonds-2023.09.29.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weak Sector Breadth is Bearish for U.S. High Yield Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0cb45715-4514-4ce8-95f6-3a9b7b5e5fa2/weakening-short-term-trend-bearish-emerging-market-bonds-2023.09.29.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Weakening Short-Term Trend is Bearish for Emerging Market Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dc43f85b-2b8f-4e04-a953-9139c46e55ae/rising-bond-volatility-bearish-us-investment-grade-corporate-2023.09.29.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Rising Bond Volatility is Bearish for U.S. Investment Grade Corporate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6c4d26f5-8966-4741-824b-75faf1140c41/weakening-momentum-bearish-us-long-term-treasurys-2023.09.29.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Weakening Momentum is Bearish for U.S. Long-Term Treasurys https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-october-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-10-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/663f08dc-70e5-4ea3-8bbc-1e919b5d06ae/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2aaae115-4bec-47e8-b118-e9a8c829c507/volume-supply-exceeding-demand-bearish-for-equity-exposure-2023.10.02.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Volume Supply Exceeding Demand: Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/10c521a9-efee-4e3d-bdf1-07b54e30e200/sp500-gics-sector-monthly-performance-08312023-09302023.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P500 GICS Sector Monthly Performance (08/31/2023 - 09/30/2023) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cdb2a628-926f-4cf9-923b-539b83f76ccc/improving-relative-breadth-bullish-sp500-utilities-sector-20230929.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Improving Relative Breadth is Bullish for the S&P 500 Utilities Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/53452797-16c9-4855-983c-530a18a9d4e4/strong-relative-price-momentum-bullish-sp500-communication-services-20230929.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Strong Relative Price Momentum is Bullish for S&P 500 Communication Services https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5546a2bd-7961-4eb4-8d60-be3510bfa069/rising-sector-volatility-bearish-sp500-industrials-2023.09.29.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Rising Sector Volatility is Bearish for S&P 500 Industrials https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3365f0d6-b1f5-48b1-bed2-355d66f416ae/short-term-overbought-oversold-measure-bearish-sp500-energy-sector-2023.09.29.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update October 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Short-Term Overbought/Oversold Measure is Bearish for the S&P 500 Energy Sector https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-october-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-10-06 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-q3-and-september-behind-us monthly 0.5 2023-10-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7223408d-9875-4e0e-922c-5376681c084a/day-hagan-tech-talk-10.03.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Q3 & September are Behind Us - Phew - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ac03023c-013b-42b4-af73-a3ec48750e0f/spxew.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Q3 & September are Behind Us - Phew - Make it stand out Figure 1: Performance of Various Domestic Equity Market Proxies (through 9/29/23). |Unless something drastic occurs (lower interest rates, lower crude oil, a reversal down by the U.S. Dollar), I don’t think the disparity in performance will change or get any easier. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b99b1339-148b-4840-bfaf-db86d363c219/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Q3 & September are Behind Us - Phew - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with falling 50-day MA (red) and rising 200-day MA (blue). |It is essential that the SPX stays above support in and around 4250. Otherwise, I’d expect a full test of 4200 to 4150, where a confluence of support exists. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8f859be8-6870-48d4-8a07-99c3e88fe2c0/hyioas.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Q3 & September are Behind Us - Phew - Make it stand out Figure 3: U.S. High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread. |Currently, while they are not dramatically rising, they are moving in a direction that makes me uncomfortable. Since credit spreads are one component of the NDR Catastrophic Stop Loss Model, a decisive close above the lower horizontal red resistance line would, in my opinion, not be good. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4e3f63ae-284c-4d8a-86f7-32687b9fd55b/gaso.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Q3 & September are Behind Us - Phew - Make it stand out Figure 4 Late Addition: Gasoline and Natural Gas. | Thankfully, some relief for the consumer as each is still rangebound — we’ll take it. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-short-and-to-the-point monthly 0.5 2023-10-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1695739301068-QKY99EWFVUHK37IUY23D/day-hagan-tech-talk-09.26.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Short and to the Point - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/943cedd4-1318-4c7a-b4c5-27c1369f36c8/s-and-p-cycle-composite.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Short and to the Point - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2023. | Allowing that “trend is more important than level,” this guidepost has been very accurate in 2023, as it was in 2022. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dfaceeb4-09d4-4c37-a2eb-6ec3a737d417/s-and-p.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Short and to the Point - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with rising 200-day MA. | Please refer to the commentary above and inside the chart. Areas of resistance (selling pressure) and support (buying interest) reflected by red and green/blue dashed lines respectively. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-really monthly 0.5 2023-09-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0fa6c33b-755c-4cbe-9ea6-853b21e6ce78/day-hagan-tech-talk-09.19.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Really? - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e51989b9-04bf-4604-89df-b88d150c258d/tnx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Really? - Make it stand out Figure 1: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Index (TNX/43.19). | As Wall Street veteran Arthur Cashin stated, “Not quite a GPS in today’s terms, but enough of a guide to follow.” Please refer to the resistance level and layer of support highlighted below. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4b4245d2-0b6b-43ba-9144-1195cfafcf20/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Really? - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with rising 200-day MA. | Until we get into Q4, I won’t be surprised by “more of the same” relative to the tape action described above and the resistance and support shown below. As NDR stated, “alleviation of macro headwinds and better market breadth [emphasis mine] could allow for a rally into year-end/Q4.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b6f3d851-225e-4a5d-9aa4-3e6a4848e630/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Really? - Make it stand out Figure 3: Small Cap proxy. | Given a similar pattern of distribution (see Figure 2), I would pay special attention to the support levels shown by the price labels and green line. Also, please be cognizant of resistance—red lines. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-september-12-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-11-15 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-september-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-09-08 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-september-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-09-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f8af0c66-2f06-4ca5-a4e6-be09c0c0f0ae/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-08.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b2b8134c-82c2-4dba-aeb0-0c3dc6141321/weakening-global-market-breadth-bearish-for-equity-exposure-08.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weakening Global Market Breadth: Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/89ae69b8-8a50-4cc1-a0c0-a41e42be3eed/tips-vs-nominal-treasury-yields-by-maturity-09.01.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: TIPS vs Nominal Treasury Yields By Maturity https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7a0027bc-56ab-45da-bca3-71fb402b6263/weakening-us-small-cap-equity-trend-bearish-us-high-yeild-bonds-08.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Weakening U.S. Small Cap Equity Trend is Bearish for U.S. High Yield Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/05b405f6-087b-48d6-a0f8-0d43b3725993/weakening-emerging-equity-momentum-bearish-emerging-market-bonds-08.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Weakening Emerging Equity Momentum is Bearish for Emerging Market Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/12637e59-ded2-4473-ab49-79e06b264f60/lower-inflation-expectations-bullish-us-long-term-treasurys-08.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Lower Inflation Expectations is Bullish for U.S. Long-Term Treasurys https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/84ad5255-32fb-488d-942c-05f7f85945ca/rising-commodity-price-trends-approaching-bullish-levels-us-tips-08.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Rising Commodity Price Trends Approaching Bullish Levels for U.S. TIPS https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-september-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-09-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5f6d864e-ae23-4dd4-9514-daf062c1dcd5/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-ssxu-08.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector Catastrophic Stop Sell Model image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5aa4e315-0e1a-4002-80d2-202dcd49e19c/weakening-global-market-breadth-bearish-equity-exposure-08.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weakening Global Market Breadth: Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/39cb509d-ab62-458f-b2f2-2460648c2c0a/global-services-pmi-input-prices-07.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global Services PMI: Input Prices https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dd324767-8b56-4673-8f75-df61e96dae01/australia-percentage-stocks-trading-above-200-day-moving-averages-09.01.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Australia Percentage Stocks Trading Above 200-Day Moving Averages https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0d871990-faed-4d1d-a4f0-8275e60d5355/msci-japan-relative-strength-rising-reflects-favorable-external-indicators-08.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: MSCI Japan Relative Strength Rising; Reflects Favorable External Indicators https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9d09dd05-dbb4-47ce-9ce1-40df6ca30156/united-kingdom-now-casting-index-economic-activity-08.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: United Kingdom: Now-Casting Index of Economic Activity https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bb59c9f7-5c35-4d3d-875b-62c8f6600d70/msci-europe-ex-uk-local-currency-09.01.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: MSCI Europe ex UK (Local Currency) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/736e057c-0ed6-4c55-b63d-e53028a7582f/oecd-mexico-composite-leading-index-07.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: OECD Mexico Composite Leading Index https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-september-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-10-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3a4e5a1a-3483-45f3-82b3-3e5174142f35/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-ssus-2023.08.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ded0209f-6920-4ce8-8c1c-da16b5b2174e/weakening-global-market-breadth-bearis-equity-exposure-2023.08.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weakening Global Market Breadth: Bearish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d3e54759-a3e7-464f-accb-da3a1e99b371/sp500-gics-sector-monthly-performance-07.31.2023-08.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 GICS Sector Monthly Performance (07/31/2023-08/31/2023) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cc7e4cc4-97ce-4711-ac38-eb163faa211c/improving-short-term-relative-strength-bullish-sp500-information-technology-sector-2023.08.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Improving Short-Term Relative Strength is Bullish for the S&P 500 Information Technology Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/311311ff-ff7a-484f-be9a-af0433db1047/narrowing-option-adjusted-spread-bullish-sp500-communicaiton-services-sector-08.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Narrowing Option-Adjusted Spread is Bullish for the S&P 500 Communication Services Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/37d59e9f-3120-4b6c-9c9a-46fa3faa493e/weakening-discretionary-consumber-spending-bearish-sp500-consumer-discretionary-sector-08.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weakening Discretionary Consumer Spending is Bearish for the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d4e5a430-a5db-40bc-90f9-8b4b5f159fb7/improving-median-sales-yield-bullish-sp500-consumer-staples-sector-08.25.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy Update September 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Improving Median Sales Yield is Bullish for the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-pre-labor-day-celebration monthly 0.5 2023-09-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e121c41f-8ef7-46c1-a84d-055c0b2a8d58/day-hagan-tech-talk-09.05.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Pre-Labor Day Celebration - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/24d2568f-bc2c-4767-b25e-c439943faed7/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Pre-Labor Day Celebration - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 with supportive momentum (MACD, lower frame). | “Trends, like horses,” said John Naisbitt, “are easier to ride in the direction they are going.” In alignment with your willingness to manage risk, please use support and resistance accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d0327eae-0d12-4df2-8e43-61b221ded814/compq.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Pre-Labor Day Celebration - Make it stand out Figure 2: NASDAQ with supportive momentum (MACD, lower frame). | “Trends, like horses...” Considering the rangebound domestic equity proxies, please use support and resistance accordingly. Reach out for specific levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c92ebf0a-d389-4b6c-a2e2-5ea5ecc1cddf/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Pre-Labor Day Celebration - Make it stand out Figure 3: Small Cap Proxy with supportive momentum (MACD, lower frame). | Considering the rangebound domestic equity proxies, please use support and resistance accordingly. Please reach out for specific levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d4d4240d-3b18-498f-b4f5-c28e6b7f332f/indu.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Pre-Labor Day Celebration - Make it stand out Figure 4: DJIA with marginally supportive momentum (MACD, lower frame). | “Trends, like horses...” Considering the rangebound domestic equity proxies, please use support and resistance accordingly. Please reach out for specific levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/29843e31-32fb-4f8d-a63c-d4bce5468006/iemg.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Pre-Labor Day Celebration - Make it stand out Figure 5: Emerging Markets Proxy with supportive MACD (momentum, lower frame). | Reminds me of the current U.S. Open Tennis Championships—back and forth, back and forth. Considering the rangebound domestic equity proxies, please use support and resistance accordingly. Please reach out for specific levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2a9d9947-eadb-4a1a-b7e9-7d37c99db349/wtic.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Pre-Labor Day Celebration - Make it stand out Figure 6: Light Crude Oil with 10-week MA (green) and 40-week MA (blue). | Based on the weekly chart below, including weekly momentum (MACD, lower frame), the low-to-middle $90s is a reasonable, initial objective. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-texas-holdem monthly 0.5 2023-09-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9d091798-d40b-440f-b748-e7f998cca042/day-hagan-tech-talk-08.29.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Texas Hold’em - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c210750e-d81f-4816-af3c-f3a693c9a5be/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Texas Hold’em - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | Our models view the intermediate-term uptrend as intact, though several indicators have moved closer to neutral. For the near term, until resistance is violated on the upside or support is violated on the downside, the odds favor that the SPX consolidates as additional “cards” are pulled from the deck. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0ffe1704-7ebc-4cf1-bff5-b457eb2fdaf3/tnx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Texas Hold’em - Make it stand out Figure 2: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Index (TNX/42.12 = 4.21%). | The movement by the 10-year yield post-Jackson Hole may be a very telling cue for equities. While I believe interest rates will ultimately work higher, on a short-term basis, a close below 41.98/39.84 will be a catalyst for higher fixed-income proxies and likely equity prices as well. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-intimidation monthly 0.5 2023-08-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/25a9978f-d4fa-4cc8-83fb-660eb8ebaed9/day-hagan-tech-talk-08.22.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Intimidation - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fd28fcc8-0aba-45ae-a2fc-23e8d34c3687/tnx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Intimidation - Make it stand out Figure 1: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Index (43.42 = 4.34%). Closing prices shown. | Even with hiccups (pullbacks) along the way, which wouldn’t surprise me, this chart configuration wants to go higher. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b63e3f43-0faf-471d-ab17-f7c346f9134d/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Intimidation - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with 21-day MA, 50-day MA, and 150-day MA. | Important levels of underlying support are depicted below, as are areas of selling pressure (resistance—red lines). A close above 4450 to 4455 would solidify the initial layer of support between 4335 and 4325+/-. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/495a8e24-f191-4778-875f-35c6203ecd5d/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Intimidation - Make it stand out Figure 3: Small Cap proxy with Stochastics indicator (overbought/oversold). | Let’s keep it simple (KISS)—red lines and price labels = resistance; green lines and price labels = support. Within a wide trading range, there has been a decline down to support. Consequently, some type of near-term, oversold (stochastics—lower frame, green line) rally attempt should occur from this area. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0686a3aa-ed38-4f09-b51f-e3399a280cca/indu-djia.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Intimidation - Make it stand out Figure 4: DJIA (cyclical oriented) with Stochastics indicator (overbought/oversold). | KISS—green lines = support; red lines = resistance. There has been a decline down to support. Consequently, some type of near-term, oversold (stochastics—lower frame, green line) rally should occur from this area. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-smart-sector-strategy-update-and-wall-street-narrative monthly 0.5 2023-08-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/821f05a9-9e78-46ee-ba47-a4414f0a32db/day-hagan-tech-talk-08.15.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Wall Street Narrative & Smart Sector Strategy Update - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/75b6b286-fd37-4ee2-a600-c3ae1b74dfe8/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Wall Street Narrative & Smart Sector Strategy Update - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 with 21-day MA (red dashed line, resistance), 50-day MA (green dashed line, support) and 150-day MA (blue dashed line, support). | Numerous areas of overhanging selling pressure (resistance), starting at approximately 4527 and scaling higher, are highlighted in red. Areas of support are highlighted in green, starting with last Friday’s low/rising 50-day MA, at approximately 4444. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b7bafe33-c272-459b-adf2-75434359a543/xle-spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Wall Street Narrative & Smart Sector Strategy Update - Make it stand out Figure 2: Energy versus SPX and Technology. | A relative strength chart of Energy (XLE) versus the SPX, and specifically Technology (XLK), lends credence to this assessment. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/db820b8b-c068-41a7-9174-b66a5cdc6618/msemf.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Wall Street Narrative & Smart Sector Strategy Update - Make it stand out Figure 3: Emerging Markets Index with Momentum – monthly data. | While there was some hesitation following each of the previous monthly buy signals—which appears to be occurring this time—sharp gains were realized over time. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3160870c-351b-49d6-becf-60037fb126f6/ewc.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Wall Street Narrative & Smart Sector Strategy Update - Make it stand out Figure 4: Canada with 200-day MA (blue dotted line) plus Toronto Stock Exchange A/D Line. | Following a bullish move above its February and April/May price peaks, a pullback occurred here, as did many global markets. Proximity to support (green line and blue line) provides a good entry point and helps identify a stop-loss point. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d5ff0e8f-727c-4e56-8d31-4727d67cde06/ust10y.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Wall Street Narrative & Smart Sector Strategy Update - Make it stand out Figure 5: U.S. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield w/12-month MA. | When it comes to answering “Why,” they say a picture is worth a thousand words... https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7b4d17a5-ce49-4c98-a048-18c5c3ebf144/gnx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Wall Street Narrative & Smart Sector Strategy Update - Make it stand out Figure 6: GSCI Commodity Index, Crude, Natural Gas and Gasoline. | As expected, resistance has done its job on all four charts—red line. However, given what still appears to be a historically high underweight position in the commodity complex (Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey), I wouldn’t be surprised to see resistance violated in some of these charts at some point. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-august-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-08-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/269fc1a4-73a0-4b70-a178-6d7ffe290151/dh-ndr-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2023.07.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector Catastrophic Stop Sell Model image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2f867388-dcb1-43fb-ac57-4c6a60ec4b93/rising-us-stock-bond-relative-strength-bullish-equity-exposure-2023.08.01.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: NDR Volume Demand Outpacing NDR Volume Supply: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c3565348-605c-43ee-a307-219f5da95e4f/breadth-services-puchasing-managers-index-pmi-above-50-remains-elevated-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Breadth of Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) Above 50 Remains Elevated https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7070a133-8f0b-4a77-b0e9-346ae9a20542/msci-china-absolute-trend-move-higher-2023.08.02.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: MSCI China Absolute Trend Has Started To Move Higher https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/43276fd5-ed7a-4cf6-8f38-85cb5afe7ded/msci-canada-trailing-earnings-and-percentage-companies-positive-earnings-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: MSCI Canada Trailing Earnings and % of Companies with Positive Earnings Revisions https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/453edac1-34ca-44aa-a670-547351320e96/msci-europe-ex-uk-local-currency-2023.08.02.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: MSCI Europe ex UK (Local Currency) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6285dbb3-4f8b-49e0-9272-251b3611cc71/ecb-bank-lending-survey-business-09.01.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: ECB Bank Lending Survey for Businesses https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5b474c00-da35-4b13-a0da-e0e289dd9e36/msci-sweden-index-vs-msci-acwi-index-2023.08.01.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: MSCI Sweden Index vs. MSCI ACWI Index https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-august-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-08-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cb3b3284-1cae-4efc-a875-99634f667ab7/dh-ndr-smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-2023.07.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b327ace1-6f07-41ee-b8f3-e617bb3d8f56/rising-us-stock-bond-relative-strength-bullish-equity-exposure-2023.08.01.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Rising U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/594e74a8-18ec-4bde-88a0-ba18d6b9766d/unit-labor-costs-industrialized-nations-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Unit Labor Costs For Industrialized Nations (Year-to-Year Changes) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4675c19b-b7c0-4adf-8a4b-978eb0b29a73/us-small-cap-equity-trend-bullish-for-us-high-yield-bonds-2023.08.01.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: U.S. Small Cap Equity Trend is Bullish for U.S. High Yield Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7a459d38-dc6f-44c2-80b8-04d58c412c2c/commodity-market-strength-bullish-emerging-market-bonds-2023.08.01.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Commodity Market Strength is Bullish for Emerging Market Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/520460ff-05a0-4695-8781-b52c710c00d7/rising-inflation-expectations-bearish-us-long-term-treasurys-2023.08.01.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Rising Inflation Expectations is Bearish for U.S. Long Term Treasurys https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/72bfe589-dea0-41a4-aeb5-e853dc1ff220/weak-relative-strength-index-bearish-for-tips-2023.08.01.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Weak Relative Strength Index is Bearish for TIPS https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-august-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-08-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4ae5cdc7-5ce3-4097-a8ca-eac4ba9c92e4/dayhagan-ndr-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2023.07.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update August 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8c8f8f58-fed2-4df2-a370-6ea373460c02/rising-us-stock-bond-relative-strength-bullish-equity-exposure-2023.08.01.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Rising U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/03679f7d-9ed5-40e6-bbcf-3ceaa1c4cebf/sp500-gics-sector-monthly-performance-06.31.2023-07.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 GICS Sector Monthly Performance (06/30/2023-07/31/2023) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7e77671f-4a5e-4380-99a1-804de796b318/improving-consumer-credit-conditions-bullish-sp500-consumer-discretionary-sector-2023.07.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Improving Consumer Credit Conditions is Bullish for the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d5a3f7e6-b0f0-4370-861d-cd72f912476f/relative-price-momentum-bullish-sp500-utilities-2023.07.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Relative Price Momentum is Bullish for S&P 500 Utilities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9ef239e1-6ae7-485c-8246-9f41cfc9d200/long-term-breadth-bullish-sp500-information-technology-sector-2023.07.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Long-Term Breadth is Bullish for the S&P 500 Information Technology Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/270fa967-ae1c-497a-b4fc-fe120b8d228f/rising-oil-futures-bearish-sp500-industrials-2023.07.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Rising Oil Futures Prices is Bearish for S&P 500 Industrials https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f5a025c4-7139-417d-8f6e-90078d0cf035/reversal-from-short-term-oversold-level-bullish-sp500-consumer-staples-2023.07.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Reversal from a Short-Term Oversold Level is Bullish for S&P 500 Consumer Staples https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c1684dbd-5cb9-4d63-b855-19a7eb43061f/relative-price-mean-reversion-bearish-sp500-real-estate-sector-2023.07.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update August 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Relative Price Mean Reversion is Bearish for the S&P 500 Real Estate Sector https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-august-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-08-04 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-closer-to-resistance-than-support monthly 0.5 2023-08-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4f45a9a8-c722-4ded-adb1-e410cd49b83e/day-hagan-tech-talk-07.31.2023-flat-1200x675px.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Closer To Resistance Than Support - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0b6e46a7-86b5-4180-a153-1902a966ce27/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Closer To Resistance Than Support - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 – 6-month & thumbnail chart to discern Outside Reversal Day. | One day's price action doesn't change the trend. Confirmation (a decisive close below support—green lines) is necessary for the short-term trend to change. And if last Thursday’s intraday high of 4607.07 is violated on a closing basis (red horizontal line), the pattern becomes null and void and the short-term uptrend will remain in force. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b3810eca-756f-47fb-b1a7-fde632b8d80a/gasoline.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Closer To Resistance Than Support - Make it stand out Figure 2: Gasoline with rising 200-day MA & positive momentum. | Richard Russell said, “The fact is that significant market trends develop over a period of months, not days.” No truer words, as shown below. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-july-25-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-09-13 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-running-of-the-bulls monthly 0.5 2023-07-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/115c1a55-3066-4336-9c5e-ae5b9fcaf65a/day-hagan-tech-talk-07.18.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Running of the Bulls: Wall Street & Pamplona - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e8b3c637-30c5-42cf-9b96-b2163ec8cdd7/nyad.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Running of the Bulls: Wall Street & Pamplona - Make it stand out Figure 1: NYSE Advance – Decline Line (all issues) and DJIA. | While this is a much better indicator for discerning tops, it is useful to discern upside participation levels, which have occurred since the beginning of June. Currently, the A/D Line has moved into an area of resistance. The key now is, will it pivot lower or resolve higher? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bc80f287-4a6f-420f-9194-d97e4250ca22/s-and-p-cycle-composite-for-2023.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Running of the Bulls: Wall Street & Pamplona - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2023. | We note that outside forces can overwhelm cycles and seasonal trends; therefore, we view this as a secondary indicator. Currently, it shows that headwinds are building. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2dcfb712-aa4a-4558-b785-0af9035871f4/us-dollar-index.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Running of the Bulls: Wall Street & Pamplona - Make it stand out Figure 3: U.S. Dollar Index with Momentum (MACD) – weekly data. | Although we’ve seen a short-term oversold bounce, and it now resides at support, further downside probing is in the cards. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/56b4c39e-3beb-47ed-9900-0b9aed18ce75/bank-indices.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Running of the Bulls: Wall Street & Pamplona - Make it stand out Figure 4: Bank Index and Regional Bank Index – daily chart, post-initial crisis. | A favorable resolve above resistance will increase Small Cap proxies' odds of a bullish move. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-smart-sector-strategy-update-and-big-9 monthly 0.5 2023-07-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1689090263159-EM7MTO8GMUA2UTTU46GS/day-hagan-tech-talk-07.11.2023-flat-1200x628px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Smart Sector Strategy Update and the Big 9 - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ed69cf46-ddd3-44f8-a9d5-883b8fc08802/ndr-daily-trading-composite.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Smart Sector Strategy Update and the Big 9 - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 vs. NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite. | Sentiment is still Excessively Optimistic. Until the condition is worked off, the market is likely to back-and-fill over the near-term—please refer to the two performance boxes (blue arrows). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/54bfb60d-1e80-4070-9d36-27f81efaa1ba/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Smart Sector Strategy Update and the Big 9 - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 and Relative Strength Index (RSI). | Please refer to the explanation about RSI below the chart. Also note the support (in green) and resistance (red lines) levels shown inside the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/66d6d99e-4f06-4dcb-a1ac-f808a4baf1a9/DAX.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Smart Sector Strategy Update and the Big 9 - Make it stand out Figure 3: German DAX Index. | Stalled at resistance, momentum reversed, & an uptrend line violation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/892ff638-c316-42b3-99c3-5b34a994a58d/south-korea.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Smart Sector Strategy Update and the Big 9 - Make it stand out Figure 4: South Korea and Poland – price charts with rising 200-day MA. | Please see verbiage inside each chart, including critical near-term support. Please reach out for a relative strength chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9f04bbf8-ccfa-45ea-9412-c47ca5508c03/10-year-us-treasury-yield-index.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Smart Sector Strategy Update and the Big 9 - Make it stand out Figure 5: CBOE 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Index. | I thought the bulls were running in Pamplona, Spain, last week. I did not expect such speed in the interest rate market. The March ’23 and October-November ‘22 peaks are significant points of resistance. Support (green lines) and how TNX reacts to these levels will be critical guideposts. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0cbf61d2-7a83-4ce0-8a81-b9c5e58f788a/floating-rate-versus-aggregate-bond.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Smart Sector Strategy Update and the Big 9 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Barclays Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF vs. U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF. | Within the exceedingly difficult fixed income complex, having exposure (overweight) here as been value added. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e36e37a0-f767-44ef-85ee-40fcd0d730c1/nyse-fang-plus-index.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Smart Sector Strategy Update and the Big 9 - Make it stand out Figure 7: NYSE FANG+ Index with 13, 21, & 50-day MA (red, green & lime respectively). |Please use the price labels or levels shown in the thumb nail chart (right side) or the larger chart (left side) accordingly. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-july-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-07-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7d0c383f-1e4b-4b8c-823a-7ce6bd77928b/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-2023.03.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/96130241-4c95-4c0b-acdc-5d55659ea832/ndr-volume-demand-outpacing-ndr-volume-supply-bullish-equity-exposure-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: NDR Volume Demand Outpacing NDR Volume Supply: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/af2d9724-a9e6-4f15-bf75-7237eeddb112/yields-on-key-10-year-governments-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Yields on Key 10-Year Governments https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/85428e53-9a9b-44c4-9ef4-8d09e9b3136c/short-term-monentum-bearish-us-floating-rate-notes-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: U.S. Floating Rate Notes’ Short-Term Momentum Improving: Bullish for the Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/27ea7965-0c1c-4d66-8d68-fa265b65dcb1/narrowing-option-adjusted-spreads-bearish-treasury-inflation-protected-securities-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Short-Term Relative Strength Trend: Bullish for International Investment Grade Bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ce6aed70-cc83-431c-8e88-77591db3d890/short-term-trend-bullish-emerging-market-bonds-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Short-Term Trend: Bullish for Emerging Market Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/837fcbc9-2b6e-493c-8604-873309d26b7a/narrowing-option-adjusted-spreads-bearish-treasury-inflation-protected-securities-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Narrowing Option-Adjusted Spreads: Bearish for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-july-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-07-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c223a660-03a8-4790-b430-375868cc75d6/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-international-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector Catastrophic Stop Sell Model image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cc679be8-dee7-43c6-b0cf-a76c9411ecb4/ndr-volume-demand-outpacing-ndr-volume-suppply-bullish-equity-exposure-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: NDR Volume Demand Outpacing NDR Volume Supply: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c51e652f-a0ac-4312-943c-4b78da29646a/global-pmi-manufacturing-vs-services-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global PMI vs. Central Bank Breadth https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b85ad095-bdaf-40b7-b1f6-da937fa76385/japan-composite-manufacturing-services-pmi-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Japan Composite (Manufacturing & Services) PMI https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8e874bb3-10cf-44e8-b7d8-73c9b4d7a0d4/msci-australia-price-return-index-2023.07.04.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: MSCI Australia Price Return Index (in local currency) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/93b6b18b-86a5-4181-ae07-74ce10741852/germany-unit-labor-costs-seasonally-adjusted-2023.03.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Germany: Unit Labor Costs (Seasonally Adjusted) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7934828e-7ff2-414d-bd6e-9213117e1a78/msci-uk-relative-strength-trading-significantly-below-trend-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: MSCI U.K. Relative Strength Trading Significantly Below Trend https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/702ea7b9-7c9c-4e49-9d1f-658819693343/msci-poland-index-vs-moving-averages-2023.07.04.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: MSCI Poland Index (in Local Currency) vs. Moving Averages https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-july-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-07-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/245fbab1-b184-4469-96b4-8a759f0bd35a/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update July 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/53431cf3-fc1f-4341-ab62-651745414338/ndr-volume-demand-outpacing-ndr-volume-supply-bullish-equity-exposure-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: NDR Volume Demand Outpacing NDR Volume Supply: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e121d8fc-fc42-4c76-833a-426ed756b27d/sp500-gics-sector-monthly-performance-05.31.20233-06.30.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 GICS Sector Monthly Performance (05/31/2023 -06/30/2023) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/53d95bd0-1a00-4776-b533-ac1a71f7b74b/long-term-overbought-indicator-bearish-information-technology-sector-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Long-Term Overbought Indicator: Bearish for S&P 500 Information Technology Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4133acab-cd28-4bc7-a2f7-1960c1143d0e/short-term-relative-price-monentum-bullish-industrials-sector-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Short-Term Relative Price Momentum: Bullish for the S&P 500 Industries Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9b7c214a-a703-47b4-94c8-9cd463c93df2/cyclical-credit-food-spread-bearish-consumer-staples-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Cyclical Credit to Food Spread: Bearish for S&P 500 Consumer Staples https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a96cf4a-1c2d-4dd2-822e-b820e622682e/weakening-bank-loan-growth-bearish-financials-2023.06.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update July 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Weakening Bank Loan Growth: Bearish for S&P 500 Financials https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-july-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-07-07 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-the-wisdom-of-price monthly 0.5 2023-07-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1688394973738-UAQBXK4MQTNYQ9DBDO8S/day-hagan-tech-talk-07.05.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Wisdom of Price - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3e248044-b0db-483d-a6f6-c188d5422a4d/spdr-s-and-p-midcap.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Wisdom of Price - Make it stand out Figure 1: Select Domestic Equity Market Proxies – 1-Month Performance. | It is encouraging that Mid-Caps and Small Caps outperformed Large Cap Growth/Technology during June. A continuation of this trend is needed as we move into 2H23. Even the stodgy DJIA had a good month. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/02ef18c0-f5ea-4928-9c9e-9b21d0df9070/invesco-russell-mid-cap-equal-weight.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Wisdom of Price - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P Sector Performance between June 15 and June 23. | Since the S&P 500’s very near-term closing high on June 15, we have seen a broader range of underperformance when compared to the S&P 500’s decline during the same time. Unless this is remedied (upside participation broadens again), it will be harder to extend the SPX’s current trend deeper into 2H23. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b337b253-1c69-463a-9deb-3df9f3851425/s-and-p-500.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Wisdom of Price - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500. | Once new month/new quarter inflows run their course, with the lower end of a layer of resistance close by, how the SPX handles a test of support will be a good guidepost (see chart), especially given sentiment (too complacent) and an early July headwind per NDR’s S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2023. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-path-of-least-resistance-shifting-short-term monthly 0.5 2023-07-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1d6f19c9-7c6c-4f7f-8483-062588fc7e5a/day-hagan-tech-talk-06.27.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Path of Least Resistance Shifting, Short-Term - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6307f0c9-83fc-4217-b162-7852b2474fe5/positioning.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Path of Least Resistance Shifting, Short-Term - Make it stand out Figure 1: Positioning (as defined in chart). | While stretched can get more stretched, it gets harder to keep the rubber band from snapping back as allocations to equities by systematic and discretionary strategies reflect an almost exuberant mindset. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f7f243b3-7cd6-4214-b32f-9395f35716b6/sector-performance-15-june-thru-23-june.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Path of Least Resistance Shifting, Short-Term - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P Sector Performance between June 15 and June 23. | Since the S&P 500’s very near-term closing high on June 15, we have seen a broader range of underperformance when compared to the S&P 500’s decline during the same time. Unless this is remedied (upside participation broadens again), it will be harder to extend the SPX’s current trend deeper into 2H23. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4cf96416-c7d6-4f02-8031-0f29f65f5bb3/s-and-p-500-and-nasdaq.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Path of Least Resistance Shifting, Short-Term - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 and NASDAQ. | Areas of SPX support (price labels and green lines) = in and around 4325 (August ‘22 intraday and closing peak), 4230+/- (gap support—green circle), and 4200 (February ’23 intraday and closing peak, uptrend line). As I’ve noted before, I won’t be surprised to see the gap filled. Resistance = price label and red line. Besides the green support line and red resistance line shown, please reach out for specific levels relative to NASDAQ. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dcfb9de4-685e-4a08-ac6d-2cf6f1a15016/s-and-p-500-2023-cycle-composite.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Path of Least Resistance Shifting, Short-Term - Make it stand out Figure 4: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2023. | This cycle composite is supportive through early July but then turns into a headwind. Note: Cycle composites are second-tier inputs; i.e., they provide background information but are not part of Day Hagan’s risk management models. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-june-20-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-07-27 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-rotation-lifeblood-continuing-uptrend monthly 0.5 2023-06-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ec9a2e9d-2387-49e2-91ac-d2ab68f47f90/day-hagan-tech-talk-06.13.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rotation: Lifeblood of a Continuing Uptrend - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9366ccea-80f6-4fe1-8c61-aa611acc3d54/russell-2000.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rotation: Lifeblood of a Continuing Uptrend - Make it stand out Figure 1: Select Domestic Equity Market Performance 5.31.23-6.12.23. | While underperforming on a year-to-date basis, the former laggards, small cap (red) and mid-cap (blue), are outperforming large cap growth (green, pink, & aqua) month-to-date, even though the performance differential narrowed dramatically yesterday. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/31736afd-a20f-4c76-acdf-ed6cf2bf6f9c/discretionary.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rotation: Lifeblood of a Continuing Uptrend - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P Macro Sector Performance 5.31.23 to 6.12.23. | Sector rotation, the lifeblood of a continuing uptrend, must continue to develop a healthier internal equity market backdrop. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/11cc0782-4acb-4267-8195-88fc2001d3e1/s-and-p-500.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Rotation: Lifeblood of a Continuing Uptrend - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500. | Please refer to target/resistance levels (red lines) shown inside the chart, plus the support levels. At some point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see gap support tested. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-june-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-06-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0c66557a-2c83-4a29-941a-4efc20e7ea9d/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-international-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector Catastrophic Stop Sell Model image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8cb357e8-d32c-4f09-9833-0ca0e3a01abb/percentage-msci-acwi-markets-above-50-day-moving-averages-dropped-below-50-percent-threshold-2023.05.26.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Percentage of MSCI ACWI Markets Above Their 50-Day Moving Averages Dropped Below 50% Threshold https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7267d29a-8778-450e-be0e-1e15555ebddf/breadth-of-manufacturing-purchasing-managers-indexes-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Breadth of Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/398ce8af-4793-42c9-9625-93c57c8a35e8/france-markit-services-purchasing-managers-index-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: France Markit Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0919002e-6d0b-44cd-b067-04fbcf73a04f/msci-switzerland-10-year-real-annualized-price-returns-based-price-average-1oyear-earnings-2023.15.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: MSCI Switzerland 10-Year Real Annualized Price Returns Based On Price/Average 10-Year Earnings https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/44d7d1e6-5f03-4f98-a163-e1abc1cf4810/germany-industrail-production-vs-business-climate-survey-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Germany Industrial Production vs Ifo Business Climate Survey https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/02c2f1ef-afc6-47f3-9185-0e8ef8acc67f/china-potentia Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: China Potential GDP Growth vs. MSCI China https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/29a88c14-4592-4132-b627-a592a66c7c09/italy-markit-services-purchasing-managers-index-2023.04.30.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Italy Markit Services Purchasing Mangers’ Index (PMI) https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-june-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-06-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2b534bde-3e57-432b-9dcb-e25974b5a59d/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-manager-model-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/690b6e8e-4e09-4e3d-869d-87fedb5f18c9/percentage-msci-acwi-markets-above-50-day-moving-averages-dropped-below-50-percent-threshold-2023.05.26.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Percentage of MSCI ACWI Markets Above Their 50-Day Moving Averages Dropped Below50% Threshold https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5f55160c-a5e0-4fc2-82ae-8d4a3fdcea58/corporate-bond-supply-2023.05.26.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Corporate Bond Supply https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/48e6ec24-b4ad-420f-9b32-bd34508e0ebf/us-floating-rate-notes-shortterm-momentum-improving-bullish-for-sector-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: U.S. Floating Rate Notes’ Short-Term Momentum Improving: Bullish for the Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/546dc494-7c4b-4773-a00d-a4443f2de12b/rising-relative-strength-bullish-international-investment-grade-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Rising Relative Strength: Bullish for International Investment Grade https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bad3b7b3-cd82-484a-bd9d-ad3faa32ae18/weak-emerging-market-euity-momentum-bearish-emerging-market-bonds-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weak Emerging Market Equity Momentum: Bearish for Emerging Market Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/403ce95b-dbb7-4a42-afe7-48d469ed2e21/weakening-relative-strength-index-bearish-us-tips-2023.06.01.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Weakening Relative Strength Index: Bearish for U.S. TIPS https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-june-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-06-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7236d4db-da33-43a0-b8a0-446e4013e36d/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update June 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fa55f2f4-b702-4174-89e2-78b2a8829177/percentage-of-msci-acwi-markets-above-their-50-day-moving-average-dropped-below-50-percent-threshold.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Percentage of MSCI ACWI Markets Above Their 50-Day Moving Average Dropped Below 50% Threshold https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1fb7a193-fe61-4395-880d-3e6a1b394058/sp500-vs-top-500-stocks-by-market-cap-percent-total-sp500-market-cap-2023.05.24.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 vs. Top 5 S&P 500 Stocks by Market Cap as a percent of Total S&P 500 Market Cap https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/59ba6654-99ba-440e-bc10-5005fd71178f/sp500-information-technology-sector-weight-as-a-percent-of-the-sp500-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: S&P 500 Information Technology’s Sector Weight as a Percent of the S&P 500 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2ded8c08-fad4-4335-b18f-5013432322c7/steeping-yield-curve-bullish-for-sp500-communication-services-sector-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Steeping Yield Curve is Bullish for the S&P 500 Communication Services Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/20c80c45-3486-4aef-b5f1-df04db846719/widening-health-care-high-yield-spreads-bearish-sp500-health-care-sector-2023.05.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Widening Health Care High Yield Spreads is Bearish for the S&P 500 Health Care Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/95e00272-1a73-4220-8896-bc35d3499b16/rising-forward-pe-ratio-bearish-sp500-financials-sector-2023.05.26.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update June 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Rising Forward P/E Ratio is Bearish for the S&P 500 Financials Sector https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-fine-and-good-but-what-about-now monthly 0.5 2023-06-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1686061034037-XZSLX99E3OA53IV0PS1D/day-hagan-tech-talk-06.06.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Fine and Good, But What About Now? - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/15c9f7fc-6e50-416c-9328-faff4dd4ee82/djia.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Fine and Good, But What About Now? - Make it stand out Figure 1: DJIA and TRAN. | I want to see the red resistance lines decisively broken and held! Also, I don’t want to see the green support lines violated, especially given the narrow backdrop. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eb0d0d0f-cc62-44dc-98aa-8fc39f01c2d8/regional-bank-index-vs-spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Fine and Good, But What About Now? - Make it stand out Figure 2: Regional Bank Index and Bank Index. | Please refer to the verbiage and levels shown in the charts. Also, reach out for additional details. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/74a88c05-4723-40dd-8131-599e8010a9e1/s-and-p-500.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Fine and Good, But What About Now? - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 with flattening 200-day MA (blue line). | Now that the August downside gap was filled, the August intraday and closing highs (4300 +/-) represent resistance. We are there! Now the upside gap from last week (green circle between 4241 and 4232) represents “first support.” I wouldn’t be surprised to see gap support tested. If “gap support” is violated, the odds would then favor a retest of secondary and more critical short-term support, in and around 4100. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-june-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-07-12 https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-for-global-balanced-portfolios-may-31-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-06-01 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-what-me-worry monthly 0.5 2023-06-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1685465918918-TY93523WKM63UDX70KFT/day-hagan-tech-talk-05.30.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: What, Me Worry? - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eb8475de-3aec-49d4-9423-348671676c49/s-and-p-500-and-various-ad-lines.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: What, Me Worry? - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500, NYSE Composite, and Respective Advance-Decline Lines. | Unless favorably resolved (everything starts moving in sync, higher), these negative divergences will have bearish implications for large cap technology/growth proxies. More reason to have an investment strategy in place with a risk management component. Please identify stop-loss levels now. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3be3fb07-6105-492a-998c-799b32e2f1ec/djia-and-tran.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: What, Me Worry? - Make it stand out Figure 2: DJIA and TRAN. | I want to see the black and red resistance lines decisively broken and held! Also, I don’t want to see the green support lines violated, especially given the narrow backdrop. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/07013485-d1d1-46cf-b33a-1cb51b5aa9a8/s-and-p-500.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: What, Me Worry? - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500, 18-month daily. | A move above 4218 to 4228 (gap resistance—red circle) would take the SPX higher, towards the August 2022 high in the vicinity of 4300+/-. Note the importance of initial support, pointed out over the past few weeks, in the vicinity of 4100+/- and 4050 to 4045. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-may-23-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-06-21 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-purgatory monthly 0.5 2023-05-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/087af0b0-c9ec-4718-81a2-21f4827c5a2a/day-hagan-tech-talk-05.16.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Purgatory - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bddc0317-e2e9-4031-b9e5-0a8e37b50bce/nasdaq-100.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Purgatory - Make it stand out Figure 1: NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ 100 A/D Line, Equal Weight vs. Cap Weight (NDX & SPX). | While it started at the beginning of 2023, the move into the “perceived” safety of a small number of stocks accelerated (lower frames) in and around the start of the Regional Banking crisis (vertical blue line). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c463de3-fd08-4d47-9b87-c7d496416748/s-and-p-500.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Purgatory - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500, 1-year daily. | A trading range, within a trading range, within a trading range—purgatory. A decisive move above 4190 to 4218 may lead to a big “squeeze” and take the SPX higher https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/008fc2db-ff1e-4a76-a60f-76fab8b9b61d/iwm.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Purgatory - Make it stand out Figure 3: Small Cap Proxy with additional Small Cap measuring tools. | Despite abysmal performance of “Smalls,” $170+/- hasn't broken. Short-term, the stage is set for some upside probing, now! https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-it-dont-come-easy monthly 0.5 2023-05-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1683653532998-01IFZO3L6V0W89UEJJKG/day-hagan-tech-talk-05.09.2023-flat-1200x675px.jpg Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy - Make it stand out Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/99b8ef25-716c-4462-a709-9e41871d4b9b/s-and-p-500-etc.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 and NASDAQ – weekly. |See verbiage, resistance (red lines), & support (green lines). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/92c2510c-effc-492e-a468-626fb622418d/dow-jnes-industrial-average-etc.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy - Make it stand out Figure 2: DJIA & Small Cap proxy - weekly. |See verbiage, resistance (red lines), & support (green lines). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/701fa8dd-9dc3-444a-8e9c-d003742e0c45/spx-advance-decline-line.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500: Advance-Decline Line, % Stock above 50-day MA & 200-day MA. | While the A/D Line (top frame) is closer to its February peak than the cash index (normally bullish), it failed to get above resistance. Also, while the indicators in the middle and lower frame are poor timing tools, unless/until they start moving in sync with SPX, they make me uncomfortable. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7b90e2bd-d924-4760-a6cb-7161f8b99edd/10-year-us-treasury-yield.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy - Make it stand out Figure 4: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield with 12-month MA – monthly log chart. | While there is room for interest rates to pull back short- to intermediate-term, from a macro perspective, “the worm has turned.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0980229e-98d6-42b8-a6c6-0a95fa985e5c/30-year-us-treasury-yield.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Don’t Come Easy - Make it stand out Figure 5: 30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield with 12-month MA – monthly log chart. | While there is room for interest rates to pull back short- to intermediate-term, from a macro perspective, “the worm has turned.” https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-may-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-07-12 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-may-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-05-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/badb5abd-aeb4-4d20-884c-e6ec502b380e/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-2023.04.28.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9e1364f8-1fde-4c7b-9ec1-42658ce6ebb5/improving-msci-acwi-breadth-bullish-equity.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Improving MSCI ACWI Breadth: Bullish for Equity Expsoure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/74a81a4d-24a9-4fb7-a6b4-89d9fcf9dd27/10-year-treasury-around-end-fed-tightening-cycle.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: 10 Year Treasury Yield Around End of Fed Tightening Cycle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/73bc251d-af8d-4b44-8b74-f39047eff390/us-investment-grade-corporate-technical-cross-bullish.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Technical Cross: Bullish for the Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/77d530cf-7a01-4cc0-9328-9cda8b34845e/lower-vix-bullish-us-high-yield-bonds-2023.04.28.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: : Lower VIX is Bullish for U.S. High Yield Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/50045d5b-d8ff-4b03-b9ee-c4505bbc5b94/rising-us-floating-notes.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Rising U.S. Floating Rate Notes’ Relative Strength is Bullish for the Sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fc6c2735-be86-4905-b72a-517627e35b18/international-investment-grade-relative-strength-weakening-bearish-2023.04.28.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: International Investment Grade Relative Strength Weakening: Bearish for the Sector. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-may-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-05-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/125ba62f-c1f4-4ca3-9545-a44f6648b245/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2023.04.28.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector Catastrophic Stop Sell Model image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1dd57715-2717-4977-af1b-0622074ed9ad/improving-msci-acwi-breadth-equity-exp-2023.04.28.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Improving MSCI ACWI Breadth: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8b5ab0a3-794d-4634-815c-0b714ead5305/global-composite-pmi-output-2023.03.31.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global PMI: Output https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/405cb589-fa2e-4ad8-bf40-aae2b6b929b3/msci-france-price-return-index-local-currency-2023.05.01.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: MSCI France Price Return Index (in local currency) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/373fae22-3655-49c9-ad06-4d947141d58e/msci-switzerland-trailing-earnings-and-percentage-of-companies-positive-earnings-revisions-2023.05.04.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: MSCI Switzerland Trailing Earnings and % of Companies with Positive Earnings Revisions https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6805cb14-027c-44a8-9116-8a686b13f938/china-pmi-trends-2023.04.14.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: China PMI Trends to Lead Japan: Currently Trending Lower https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2e632095-7f6c-4c92-8943-9636f80dddf1/china-trending-lower-this-year-2023.05.01.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: China Trending Lower This Year https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d5f43b4c-78a0-4b58-af66-762bb8a9750c/msci-netherlands-index-local-currency-2023.04.30.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: MSCI Netherlands Index - Local Currency https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-may-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-05-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f0737adf-a06f-4eb9-9da3-65592c11e5d2/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-model-2023.04.28.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update May 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/939b7ef7-6fce-4b6b-bc5f-c2c7d11e5487/improving-msci-acwi-breadth-bullish-equity-expsure-2023.04.28.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Improving MSCI ACWI Breadth: Bullish for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c7e02696-b220-4b94-aada-fe731c0d7e5b/sp500-shut-index-vs-broad-cyclical-seasonality-2023.12.29.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 SHUT Index (Equal-Weighted) vs. Broad Cyclical Sector Index Seasonality https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/01409edc-75a8-43ec-b104-f0355c9f8b0d/improving-short-term-price-trend-bullish-health-care.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Improving Short-Term Price Tend Bullish for the Health Care Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/886db26a-b426-42ac-8e5c-7f55b60edc3e/improving-capacity-utilitization-bullish-utilities-2023.04.28.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Improving Capacity Utiization is Bullish for Utilities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/da72788b-9467-44fc-ab48-b0edcbb44664/sp500-financials-relative-performance-ytd-2023.04.28.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: S&P 500 Financials Relative Performance TYD https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/13185425-d0a6-46e5-b168-4ca54422103b/weakening-business-credit-conditions-bearish-real-estate-2023.04.28.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update May 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Weakening Business Credit Conditions is Bearish for the Real Estate Sector https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-enjoy-the-whine monthly 0.5 2023-05-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5640a07d-3a65-4fab-81b2-c3f2de367002/ice-move-index.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Enjoy the Whine - Make it stand out Figure 1: ICE Move Index. | Near support and momentum is close to crossing higher—see thumbnail chart. Given the coming news (see summary), the odds favor a pickup in volatility starting this week. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e6df983b-a85e-4637-95ff-3abe4e05ad1d/volatility-index.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Enjoy the Whine - Make it stand out Figure 2: Volatility Index. | Near support and close to oversold level (not shown). A reversal up above 19+/- would likely start the process of increasing equity market volatility to the downside. As is the case with MOVE, please don’t anticipate a reversal. Wait for it to occur. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c8edd09-c8bd-4ce9-9f06-4cb95123c6f3/s-and-p-500.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Enjoy the Whine - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 daily. | Not sure who doesn’t see resistance between 4195 and 4218. Don’t be surprised by a violation of resistance and immediate pullback, or simply a pullback first. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/feede8e3-4913-41f3-818d-adca719a2bb5/small-proxy-versus-....png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Enjoy the Whine - Make it stand out Figure 4: Small Cap and Microcap proxy versus Large Cap proxy (SPX). | Patience. Don’t anticipate. When our models in this space reverse, we will act. Not beforehand. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-thelion-the-witch-and-the-wardrobe monthly 0.5 2023-05-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9b23961e-867b-4582-b37b-86d629ef6abe/spx-weekly.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 weekly w/ rising 40-week MA. | “Grind it Out – Down & Difficult – Wear ’em Out.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d124a40e-9190-45bc-9446-615e8b0562a8/spx-percent-above-200-and-50-day-ma.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 and % components above 200-day MA and 50-day MA. | Please compare the price action in the top frame with that in the middle and lower frame and the verbiage—middle frame. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ea6dc99a-337f-4a65-91d7-1e4b8705e29d/spx-daily.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 (4137.04) 1-year daily. | Working through earnings reports, how the market reacts will be more telling than the news itself. Currently, we are up near the lower end of a range of selling pressure. As discussed last week, don’t be surprised to see some hesitation/pullback now. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-april-19-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-05-24 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-hedge-against-breakage-not0inflation monthly 0.5 2023-04-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ade458e7-b94a-48ac-aa67-bc3674346cc8/silver.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Hedge Against “Breakage,” Not Inflation - Make it stand out Figure 1: Silver – with rising 40-week MA. | Bullish. As with all positions in the always-volatile commodity complex, risk management (upside and downside stop-loss points) should be identified ahead of time and followed. In this case, low-to-middle $30s on the upside is resistance/target. Initial support of $20.51 on the downside. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b219f308-b2d9-4ab8-adb9-146141d00de4/s-and-p-sectors-performance-since-october-2022-low.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Hedge Against “Breakage,” Not Inflation - Make it stand out Figure 2: 11 S&P Sectors & Technology heavy S&P 500 - performance since October ‘22 low. | Since the October 2022 low, all 11 sectors are higher through 4/10/23. Five of the 11 (~45%) have outperformed the S&P 500, while 6 of the 11 (~54%) have underperformed. However, 3 of the 6 (50%) that underperformed the SPX during this time still rallied by over 10%. Therefore, 8 of the 11 sectors (~73%) have rallied 10% or more since fall 2022. As a friend and former colleague (RIP Big Guy) liked to say, “not too shabby,” especially considering all the “twisting and shouting” about a narrow market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/587aee16-55a0-49a2-90a1-891af8c6a7fa/s-and-p-sectors-performance-since-early-march-2023.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Hedge Against “Breakage,” Not Inflation - Make it stand out Figure 3: 11 S&P Sectors & Technology-heavy S&P 500. | Performance prior to the start of the Regional Bank debacle: While I am sure the underperformance of the Financials (far right, green) stands out, what I find informative is the difference in the percentage gain between Communication Services (+7.67%, red), Technology (+6.04%, blue), Utilities (+5.43%, lime), Staples (+4.11%, pink), Health Care (3.75%, teal), and the S&P 500 (+1.50%, black) within the time period. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-april-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-04-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1fc4f733-4c85-4e42-a2ca-a7b489563e9f/dhndr-smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector Catastrophic Stop Sell Model image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c7678bf1-4249-4321-a1a1-59907d732a02/weakening-short-term-trend-unfavorable-equity-exposure-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weakening Short-Term is Unfavorable for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ee5fd769-6e83-4e32-9f33-c2b8db5e9601/global-pmi-vs-central-bank-breadth-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global PMI vs. Central Bank Breadth https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dd1ccd2e-584a-481e-b3bd-af2682a29f69/msci-france-price-ad-line-realtive-to-100-day-moving-average-04.03-2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: MSCI France Price & A/D Line Relative to 100-Day Moving Average https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2097e3eb-9895-4f88-a8cf-d9febafae12e/msci-uk-earnings-yield-vs-10-year-government-bond-yield-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: MSCI U.K. Earnings Yield vs 10-Year Government Bond Yield https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ff96a129-880b-40ca-a08e-94148fdb6b31/emerging-markets-high-yield-credit-spreads-have-been-widening-over-last-two-months-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Emerging Markets High Yield Credit Spreads Have Been Widening Over Last Two Months https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f351f156-c453-42b4-b553-63d69eb112a0/citigroup-economic-surprise-index-for-canadian-dollar-decling-over-last-month-04.03.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the Canadian Dollar Declining Over Last Month https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/eb62b4b6-0516-4277-8e2a-c3fdf57d5887/China+PE.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: MSCI China https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-april-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-04-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c69247f2-1c6f-4a99-9f89-3469c6750bb2/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c0585b23-81da-42e7-bd05-250aac9b9d20/weakening-short-term-trend-unfavorable-equity-exposure-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weakening Short-Term is Unfavorable for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/acfb63e2-e9a2-4aa7-8707-18d2d6676e7d/us-dollar-index-weakening-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: U.S. Dollar Index Weakening https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0de069eb-757d-4c5f-bfdb-03db9aeecc40/narrowing-spreads-international-investment-grade-neutral-for-sector-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Narrowing Spreads for International Investment Grade is Neutral for the Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/81ae7fd0-241d-4e89-a4a4-96312d1265ad/improving-relative-strength-index-bullish-mortgage-backed-securities-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: : Improving Relative Strength Index is Bullish for Mortgage-Backed Securities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2be020db-902e-4cbc-8eb6-2eab7b086d07/improving-relative-strength-index-bullish-for-tips-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Improving Relative Strength Index is Bullish for TIPS https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3e388ead-c3fa-46f4-be59-5f0b77ac0dec/short-term-trend-bullish-emerging-market-bonds-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Short-Term Trend is Bullish for Emerging Market Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ea23baf6-8b8e-451a-9645-2ccc37d0687f/weakening-us-dollar-bearish-us-investment-grade-corporate-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Weakening U.S. Dollar is Bearish for U.S. Investment Grade Corporate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0f93b77b-f428-4801-9a92-d2a31b573eb6/declining-volatility-bearish-floating-rate-notes-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Declining Volatility is Bearish for Floating Rate Notes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bd82356d-682e-4238-b3a5-b9bb00dbe632/weak-us-small-cap-equity-trend-bearish-high-yield-bonds-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Weak U.S. Small Cap Equity Trend is Bearish for High Yield Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ee48312e-9028-4e43-a58b-a8c5a1ad04fd/weak-shortterm-bearish-for-us-long-term-treasurys-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Weak Short-Term Trend is Bearish for U.S. Long Term Treasurys https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-april-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-04-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a2307577-b769-4b68-88ac-8555745760d8/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update April 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ac936332-920c-48e4-bbe4-f348740929e7/weakenin Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Weakening Short-Term is Unfavorable for Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8d021098-19aa-40ab-a521-707f3ab3dc4e/sp500-gics-sector-monthly-performance-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 GICS Sector Monthly Performance (02/28/2023 - 03/31/2023) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9cb435ae-c022-443f-b352-b2c7e7c28877/rising-50-day-net-new-highs-bullis-for-sp500-technology-sector-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Rising 50-Day Net New Hight is Bullish for the S&P 500 Technology Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/00ec3493-3be2-4b9e-8b1d-8cf0146c4eb4/fanmag-index-rallying-year-to-date-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: FANMAG Index Rallying Year-to-Date https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d6af4e9d-0089-4b74-9bf0-1675e39586fa/sp500-financials-sector-total-return-trend-bearish-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: S&P 500 Financial Sector Total Return Trend is Bearish https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/042cdef2-e65c-4d1e-b10c-3ba9efc69c18/rising-mba-purchase-bullish-real-estate-sector-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Rising MBA Purchase Index is Bullish for the Real Estate Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9f08485b-5a26-4781-b540-ae110dd280d9/sp500-consumer-discretionary-sector-shortterm-trend-bearish-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector’s Short-Term Trend is Bearish https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c6797a63-9609-47b4-afc6-905857a0e74d/rising-sector-volatility-bearish-sp500-industrails-sector-03.31.2023.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update April 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Rising Sector Volatility is Bearish for the S&P 500 Industrials Sector https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-april-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-07-12 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-twist-and-shout monthly 0.5 2023-04-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/27589bd2-0039-4ab5-b9e2-d166cace9ae4/sox.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Twist and Shout - End of Quarter Positioning - Make it stand out Figure 1: Semiconductor Index versus NASDAQ – relative strength trend used to discern a change in the Growth over Value relative strength trend. | Please refer to the notes in the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2e5c5cc9-f92a-463f-91ba-f1c9bf2be4a7/nyfang.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Twist and Shout - End of Quarter Positioning - Make it stand out Figure 2: NYSE FANG+ Index – used to discern a change in the Growth over Value relative strength trend. | Please refer to the notes in the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/800f6eca-5ac8-40f6-8a17-b3ee1f7af1ba/spx.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Twist and Shout - End of Quarter Positioning - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 – no indicators, just “price.” | Will the “Best Month” narrative be enough to get through resistance? With a new month and new quarter flows/potential rotation, it's a toss-up. But the area between 4150+/- and 4200+/- ought to provide some resistance (selling pressure). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/044584c2-0579-41b4-a95a-dd0d03c8b886/bank-index.png Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Twist and Shout - End of Quarter Positioning - Make it stand out Figure 4: KBW Bank Index. | Having discussed the necessary basing pattern in last week’s report, using the Regional Bank Index, here is the larger cap/larger company banking index. In regards to managing/hedging downside risk ahead of time, please see the notes in the chart. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-for-global-balanced-portfolios-march-29-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-06-01 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-comfortably-numb monthly 0.5 2023-04-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5cd0d2b2-f861-45e7-ac21-a330c09b866c/regional-bank-index.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Comfortably Numb - Make it stand out Figure 1: Dow Jones U.S. Select Regional bank Index. | Is the index deeply oversold? Yes. However, considering potential “aftershocks,” should we simply be patient and take a wait-and-see attitude as a base develops? While you must decide what fits best given your objectives and tolerance for risk, I think it would be prudent to do so—also, please see verbiage below chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dfec9cea-7867-47c3-892a-fbb1538347b7/xlg.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Comfortably Numb - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 Top 50 ETF (black) and S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (red). | Due to quarter end positioning, could this narrow leadership continue? Yes. However, whether it does or doesn’t, it isn’t supportive. Unless it is favorably resolved by more stocks participating on the upside it can produce a deeper, negative response by equities. As Todd Sohn recently stated, “it raises concentration risk...” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/157337e4-0a61-4d27-8927-125a21d5233b/spx.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Comfortably Numb - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 with no indicators, just “price.” | Please refer to the verbiage directly above and inside the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d3c05803-f31b-4085-baee-dfaa5a8d754b/regional-bank-index.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Comfortably Numb - Make it stand out Figure 4: S&P 600 Small Cap Index. |”Small-cap stocks, which are typically domestically focused and smaller in size, tend to be more vulnerable to economic turbulence, often bearing the brunt of market swings. Therefore, small-cap stocks can serve as a useful indicator of the broader market sentiment and economic outlook.” ~Tier1 Alpha. The very small positive divergence from last Monday, 3/24/23 (see below), must be built on. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/167c40e4-3647-4da5-bc07-7d81640b5ee0/silver.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Comfortably Numb - Make it stand out Figure 5: Silver – absolute and relative to Commodity Index (weighed heavily by energy). | Not as a hedge against inflation but only as a hedge against something new breaking (like my recent comments about Gold), “buy, identify a stop-loss point that must be followed, and continually monitor and manage risk in both directions!” https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-march-21-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-04-05 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-march-madness-si-sivb-sbny monthly 0.5 2023-03-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/59e9abc9-6de6-4bc5-b23e-fd14a020e045/10-year-treasury-yield.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: March Madness: SI, SIVB, SBNY, and ? - Make it stand out Figure 1: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield. | As Tavis McCourt of Raymond James stated, relevant to the header above, “this… highlight[s] that when rates are increased as fast as they have been in 40+ years, there are likely risks to business models that haven’t been stress-tested like this for 40+ years.” PLEASE add “Banking Crisis” to point 15 and keep this chart for future reference!me. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e5ebd1e0-b1b2-4051-928d-f2dfc775a735/s-and-p-500-4-year-chart.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: March Madness: SI, SIVB, SBNY, and ? - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 – Four-year chart. | Please note the new range/levels of support (green lines) following the break of 3950 to 3900 and the many levels of overhanging selling pressure (resistance—red lines). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e3c80cb1-e155-4e3b-85c3-70d551a87c58/s-and-p-500-1-year-chart.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: March Madness: SI, SIVB, SBNY, and ? - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500. | As difficult as the last month has been (madness for sure), and even with numerous levels of overhanging selling pressure, shown in red, the near-term chart configuration remains range-bound, or neutral. All the more reason to use a violation of resistance or support shown in Figures 2 through 4 accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/7012f910-4d6b-494b-b579-1af8268d1941/ishares-russell-2000-etf.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: March Madness: SI, SIVB, SBNY, and ? - Make it stand out Figure 4: Small Cap proxy with resistance, support, and an oversold condition. | With the verbiage in the paragraph above as context, and a deeply oversold condition, please use the support and resistance levels accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aad9bac7-52e8-459b-85c2-799471eb3ef9/large-growth-versus-large-value.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: March Madness: SI, SIVB, SBNY, and ? - Make it stand out Figure 5: Growth vs. Value (non-growth) debate. | “Listen to what the market is saying about others, not what others are saying about the market.” ~Richard Wyckoff. In that regard, please reach out for further discussion and/or an updated chart as we move forward. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/949692a0-a29b-4c3f-869b-409243eafc9d/tnx.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: March Madness: SI, SIVB, SBNY, and ? - Make it stand out Figure 6: CBOE 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Index. | Another example of March Madness. Until a more definitive trend develops, a range-bound scenario exists. Please note resistance (red lines) and support (blue and green line). https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-march-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-07-12 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-it-makes-no-sense-at-all-march-07-07-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-07-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/04558183-c762-410c-8fb3-a7d96842d22d/nyse-a-d-line....PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Makes No Sense At All - Make it stand out Figure 1: Large & Small Cap Advance-Decline Lines & Broad Equity Market Proxies. | Until resistance is violated (red lines) and/or positive divergences occur and New Highs expand, the short-term price trend remains neutral. Also, I expect an increase in volatility this week and next in both equities and fixed income. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/386e0594-1ee3-4c8a-9e13-26849a6618f8/s-and-p-500.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Makes No Sense At All - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 with rising 150-day MA (currently 3946). | A lot of discussion last week centered around comments from Fed official Bostic about how he favors more caution on additional rate hikes. What I find interesting, especially since he is a nonvoting member, is that there was little mention of algo trading as the SPX came right down into the critical range of support between 3950 and 3900. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2796b9ad-9b02-4f40-8121-d411d3016aa6/dow-jones-industrial-average.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Makes No Sense At All - Make it stand out Figure 3: Dow Jones Industrial Average. | “Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right, Here I am, stuck in the middle with you.” Within the context of the current trading range pattern, please use a violation of support (green line) or resistance (red lines) accordingly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/158d1761-c337-4218-8713-3afe0e2513fe/percent-s-and-p-500-stocks-w-.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: It Makes No Sense At All - Make it stand out Figure 4: Percent of S&P 500 Stocks with Dividend Yields above 10-Year Treasury Yield. | Competition is usually good, but maybe not in this case. Please share your thoughts or the feedback you have received about this. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-march-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-06-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ae08f045-cfcd-4106-a194-e0a35eff750a/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2023.02.28-international.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector Catastrophic Stop Sell Model image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d745836e-8a9c-457b-84fc-8f38d2be5b19/us-stock-bond-relative-strength-favors-equity-exposure-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength Favors Equity Exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d3517a0b-b12c-4574-8136-4621e80cdda4/breadth-of-manufacturing-purchasing-managers-index-improving-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Breadth of Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) Improving. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/14079e46-5c0c-4d99-b25d-2f23a00eb42e/france-markit-services-purchasing-managers-index-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: France Markit Services Purchasing Manger's’ Index (PMI) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d0936fb7-f6fc-4024-a570-3dd429747ec3/msci-australia-trailing-earnings-and-percent-companies-positive-earnings-2023.01.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: MSCI Australia Trailing Earnings and Percentage of Companies with Positive Earnings Revisions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/615fb68c-660d-4679-8116-0a32d8288942/eurozone-inflation-still-well-above-ecb-target-2023.01.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Eurozone Inflation Still Well Above ECB Target https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/237b3486-1626-4a83-9959-84ac18bce81f/china-potential-gdp-growth-decling-longer-term-2021.12.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: China Potential GDP Growth Declining Longer-Term https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a1f5a7e6-115c-414e-af46-80436bfddead/netherlands-forcast-eps-growth-near-highest-levels-in-last-decade-2023.02.27.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Netherlands’ Forecast EPS Growth Near Highest Levels In Last Decade. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-march-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-03-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3d5ebe53-59f9-4d34-b7c5-3f9e2588070c/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/66977274-82b1-42fb-829f-521ef5984293/us-stock-bond-relative-strength-favors-equity-exposure-2023.02.28-fixed-income.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength Favors Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/66dd701d-1f0f-406f-9ff4-7e2f7d248e99/wage-measures-in-goods-producing-industries-2022.12.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Wage Measures in Goods-Producing Industries https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e48d809c-80a8-4aa9-b764-61890cd30962/us-floating-rate-notes-technical-momentum-improving-bullish-sector-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: U.S. Floating Rate Notes Technical Momentum Improving: Bullish for the Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/14d7607e-6825-49b6-8422-ff24baafef75/improving-relative-strength-bullish-international-investment-grade-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Improving Relative Strength is Bullish for International Investment Grade https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/42612d42-6c72-4d09-8f1e-f87e2ff6d711/high-yield-bond-sector-breadth-bearish-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: High Yield Bond Sector Breadth is Bearish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8f44283a-f716-483b-b069-cce75051c088/stronger-us-dollar-bearish-emerging-market-bonds-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Stronger U.S. Dollar is Bearish for Emerging Market Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f3d24d6d-064b-4a50-9783-19aebd7c2ef8/widening-option-adjusted-spreads-bearish-us-investment-grade-corporate-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Widening Option-Adjusted Spreads is Bearish for U.S. Investment Grade Corporate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/92277eac-adca-4c0d-bc4d-bbdde6a5d041/weakening-relative-strength-is-bearish-us-mortgage-backed-securities-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Weakening Relative Strength is Bearish for U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-march-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-03-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1491dc8c-98c8-49dc-9e38-95f4857f4633/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update March 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/26d7f340-d36d-43c9-8288-a3c4efca7215/us-stock-bond-relative-strength-favors-equity-exposure-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: U.S. Stock/Bond Relative Strength Favors Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/517832a9-5f7c-4338-9931-17a0e530e3c0/sp500-gics-sector-monthly-performance-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 GICS Sector Monthly Performance (01/31/2023-02/28/2023) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/87759421-439b-4a8f-ba0a-1113f6a450d7/improving-business-credit-conditions-is-bullish-for-financials-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Improving Business Credit Conditions is Bullish for Financials. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/34ffa432-93f6-4160-abb5-af8317a502bb/declining-30-year-treasury-yield-is-bullish-for-consumer-discretionary-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Declining 30-Year Treasury Yield is Bullish for Consumer Discretionary. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/bb1e5883-c69e-4efa-9167-89394280689c/weakening-mba-purchase-index-is-bearish-for-real-estate-2023.02.24.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weakening MBA Purchase Index is Bearish for Real Estate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5a597899-214e-4451-8bff-1cc0ebadaa25/short-term-overbought-oversold-measure-is-bearish-communication-services-2023.02.28.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Short-Term Overbought/Oversold Measure is Bearish for Communication Services https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0c93f654-0cf1-40d4-aa34-9cb4ad0b3064/improving-earnings-revision-breadth-is-bullish-health-care-sector-2023.02.24.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Improving Earnings Revision Breadth is Bullish for the Health Care Sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b6b36430-ad08-4a91-b44f-de880dcd0a23/rising-median-cash-flow-yield-bullish-industrials-2023.02.24.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update March 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 9: S&P 500 Consumer Staples’ Relative Breadth is Bearish https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-february-28-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-03-27 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-whos-to-blame monthly 0.5 2023-03-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ea811e9b-7a63-4ddc-931f-8fa2a29582c1/Equity-market-indicators-and-proxies.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Who’s To Blame? - Make it stand out Figure 1: Domestic Equity Market Indicators & Proxies with Resistance (red lines). | Resistance has been standing its ground for the past few weeks. I expect it to continue for a bit longer. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b4e99978-6ceb-4e0d-8ed9-c8a3391ca9fc/djia.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Who’s To Blame? - Make it stand out Figure 2: Dow Jones Industrial Average. | As the DJIA coiled (sideways activity with prices fluctuating between two converging trendlines), which ended yesterday with a move below the lower support line, I’ll say again: head on a swivel. Be aware of your surroundings—use support (shown below) & resistance (red lines) appropriately. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c0804230-209f-48f8-9285-f9f4aeb4b5d7/s-and-p-500.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Who’s To Blame? - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 with rising 150-day MA (currently 3946). | A pullback that has relieved the previous overbought conditions and short-term sentiment extreme (too much bullish optimism) is consistent with the seasonal calendar: weakness into month-end/first week of March. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/16f2ce5d-0773-4b1a-a42c-b8b1b98a7e11/xle.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Who’s To Blame? - Make it stand out Figure 4: Energy Proxy – Relative (top frame), Absolute (lower frame). https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-whos-to-blame-6a2ey monthly 0.5 2023-03-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1949192d-9a7e-4ba7-83be-d85521236f90/one-week-returns-of-select-fang-components.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: #!%@! - Make it stand out Table 1: NYSE Fang Plus Index – one week performance of select components, through 2.10.23. | As we move through early 2023, I would not be surprised by a continuation of this type of volatility, in both directions, on a daily and weekly basis. To better visual this type of volatility, in addition to the figures shown below, please refer to the January 31, 2023 Tech Talk report. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/09156df3-7af3-4695-a390-2837b0955c9e/nyse-fang-and-meme-etf-ytd-performance.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: #!%@! - Make it stand out Figure 1: NYSE FANG+ Index and MEME exchange-traded fund – Year-to-Date Performance, through 2.10.23.|A good example of how near-term, “straight-up” type moves usually end—a price correction, not a consolidation—and why it is prudent to manage risk along the way. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aad8760c-d208-4fa9-b1c1-feda7475637f/s-and-p-500-weekly-chart.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: #!%@! - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500 – weekly with 200-week MA. | A non-trading perspective shows a supportive price structure of a higher trough and higher peak. So far, so good. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0cb50dde-ebcb-44af-b4d6-f4e8e642be37/s-and-p-500-daily.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: #!%@! - Make it stand out Figure 3: S&P 500 – daily. | Will we get some Valentine’s Day love following the CPI report, or not? While we wait for some resolve, please be cognizant of the resistance and support levels shown inside the chart. Note: The 200-day MA, not shown and currently at 3945, is no longer declining but starting to stabilize—a positive change. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d8622791-4289-4a57-b3db-00236d4d1b9c/ishares-russell-2000-etf-small-cap-proxy.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: #!%@! - Make it stand out Figure 4: iShares Russell 2000 ETF – Small Cap proxy. | Through resistance that became support (lower horizontal red/green line), up to resistance (red horizontal line), and back down to support. A violation of either area will likely dictate the proxy’s next short-term directional move. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/86f8fa5c-c6a7-43ad-9136-2b1a9ac1d29f/nasdaq-composite.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: #!%@! - Make it stand out Figure 5: NASDAQ Composite – daily. | Similar to Figure 4, through resistance that became support (lower red/green line), up to resistance (red line), and back down to support (red/green line and green dashed line). A violation of either area will likely dictate the index’s next short-term directional move. NOTE: It’s encouraging that the top end of the recent base breakout contained last week’s decline. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-market-update-with-don-hagan-cfa-recorded-february-9-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-03-27 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-february-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-06-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9aa24b20-abdb-47c3-8b29-dfca4531fdeb/smart-sctor-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2023.02.01-2.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector Catastrophic Stop Sell Model image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0bab696c-2534-45a4-8ceb-c04623753449/percentage-msci-acwi-markets-above-50-day-moving-average-2023.01.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Percentage of MSCI ACWI Markets Above Their 50-Day Moving Averages Rising: Favors Equities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ee47cb39-8e06-43db-ae89-20db25342d94/global-manufacturing-pmi-new-orders-minus-inventories-indexes-2023.01.31.png Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global PMI vs. Central Bank Breadth https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/16d38299-a9dc-4779-ba69-24bf622cd258/emerging-markets-high-yield-credit-spreads-narrowing-reflects-reduced-risks-2023.02.01.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Emerging Markets High Yield Credit Spreads are Narrowing: Reflects Reducing Risks https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b0205a4c-f177-47f0-a137-723ce94214a6/france-markit-manufacturing-purchasing-managers-index-2023.01.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: France Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/18c83389-7724-4147-a4ac-4995c33bb15d/japan-50-day-net-new-highs-2023.01.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Japan 50-Day Net New Highs/Lows Continues to Deteriorate: Bearish for the Region. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3031c194-c5cf-4da0-9f6b-46346db908a0/uk-equity-risk-premium-reversing-lower-2023.01.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: U.K. Equity Risk Premium (ERP) Reversing Lower from an Extreme: Bearish for the Region. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8138d378-02e5-4046-b99f-b19ed1049d98/thailand-manufacturing-pmi-2023.01.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Thailand Manufacturing PMI: PMI https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-february-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-03-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/26765f0b-a09e-46a3-a42a-0c770a3d5fd3/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-2023.02.01.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update February 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/29853521-01e1-485c-8d9f-8f0858272b38/percentage-of-msci-acwi-markets-above-50-day-moving-average-rising-favors-equities-2023.01.31JPG.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Percentage of MSCI ACWI Markets Above Their 50-Day Moving Average Rising: Favors Equities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f43e488d-118a-4a97-850a-8ebf5c96aaaa/sector-returns-jan-2023.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Sector Returns in January 2023 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e918a11a-0730-4eb6-b258-b3cff2a3b1e1/sp500-information-technology-2023.01.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: S&P 500 Information Technology was Short-Term Oversold: Bullish for the Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2c9d2bcc-fa93-4a81-bcdc-5d910fa3fa2c/sp500-real-estates-short-term-relative-price-reversal-bullish-2023.01.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: S&P 500 Real Estate’s Short-Term Relative Price Reversal is Bullish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1efd24dc-7b1b-466d-9584-2a7f803aad47/narrowing-spreads-for-investment-grade-financials-bullish-2023.01.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Narrowing Spreads for Investment Grade Financials is Bullish for the Sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3bf4301f-e7c3-4547-993b-c4c4123706dd/emerging-vs-developed-equity-momentum-bullish-materials-sector-2023.01.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Emerging vs. Developed Equity Momentum is Bullish for the Materials Sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8fef30f7-7734-42fd-8485-e566062d23f2/lower-medical-cpi-inflation-bearish-for-health-care-sector-2023-01-31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Lower Medical CPI Inflation: Bearish for the Health Care Sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/10553649-0610-4af8-a2b1-0a93bd022155/sp500-consumer-staples-relative0breadth-bearish-2023.01.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 9: S&P 500 Consumer Staples’ Relative Breadth is Bearish https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-february-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-02-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ff59a287-759f-4a11-ab44-e59fc833f012/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-2023.01.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/29853521-01e1-485c-8d9f-8f0858272b38/percentage-of-msci-acwi-markets-above-50-day-moving-average-rising-favors-equities-2023.01.31JPG.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Percentage of MSCI ACWI Markets Above Their 50-Day Moving Average Rising: Favors Equities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/280da73a-5189-4981-abba-aa371d19e6e8/measures-of-labor-market-tightness-2022-12-31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Measure of Labor Market Tightness https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/04206212-e8e3-4636-8911-efa9e345bdf8/us-investment-grade-corporate-relative-strength-improving-bullish-sector-2023.01.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Relative Strength is Improving: Bullish for the Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/252c87dc-b750-4ec3-9c29-33d9d6d35dfe/improving-commodity-market-strength-bullish-em-bonds-2023.01.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Improving Commodity Market Strength is Bullish for EM Bonds https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e57413c1-7738-4397-bc66-411f5af4eda8/improving-us-small-cap-equity-trend-bullish-us-high-yield-bonds.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Improving U.S. Small Cap Equity Trend is Bullish for U.S. High Yield Bonds. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/264a4785-7b3b-4edd-aaf4-282468f16bcb/us-mortgage-backed-securities-moving-average-cross-bullish-sector-2023.01.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities’ Moving Average Cross is Bullish for the Sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/09d57799-a594-4ce7-9ae0-2ff12ba77550/us-floating-rate-notes-weakening-relative-strength-bearish-sector-2023.01.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: U.S. Floating Rate Notes Weakening Relative Strength is Bearish for the Sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/713dd776-b913-4511-b562-8e8f452d1b75/international-investment-grade-relative-strength-weakening-bearing-sector-2023.01.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 9: International Investment Grade Relative Strength Weakening: Bearish for the Sector. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e0dc66f7-6e07-48ae-8aa8-d0ef8869babd/lower-inflation-expectations-bearish-us-tips-2023.01.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Lower Inflation Expectation is Bearish for U.S. TIPS https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3a95f221-c8b2-4e22-9daf-2f5854a4a3f4/improving-us-equity-market-trend-bearish-us-long-term-treasurys-2023.01.31.jpg Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update February 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 11: Improving U.S. Equity Market Trend is Bearish for U.S. Long-Term Treasurys. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-but-why monthly 0.5 2023-03-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fad379f5-0c9a-421b-ae66-1f01864c29fe/ndx-vs-spx.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: But Why? - Make it stand out Figure 1: ARKK vs. SPX (top frame) & NASDAQ 100 vs. SPX (bottom frame). | My point isn’t to say that ARKK or any technology/growth/low-quality stock can’t rally. They can and likely will. My point here is that “animal spirits” were out in full force during the first 4-5 weeks of 2023, and, in the past, it has been prudent to lock in or hedge some if not all of these short-term gains. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/dabc26dd-f006-4c3f-b99f-f89a2fd984e2/spx.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: But Why? - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500. | Initial support is between 4100 and 4080. A violation of this area implies a move down towards 4000-3900 yet still within a bullish trend of higher price troughs and price higher peaks. A decisive move above 4200 implies an upward extension towards 4300+/-, which I currently think ultimately occurs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/43fa7f97-fdb9-4304-85a2-413eb0d65fe1/wtic.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: But Why? - Make it stand out Figure 3: Crude Oil with falling 200-day MA (red dashed line). | The chart has depicted challenges and problems since the spring and summer of 2022. More recently, the relative strength trend of the Oil and Gas E&P, a proxy for the Energy sector, has been challenged. If Crude Oil can get decisively above $80-81, this might change. Until then, however, from a purely chart-based perspective, nothing yet suggests a period of significant outperformance. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-february-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-03-24 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-speaking-words-of-wisdom monthly 0.5 2023-02-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f391e972-872b-4bb3-9799-188615f8d751/fang-components-ytd.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Speaking Words of Wisdom: The Beatles and The Who - Make it stand out Figure 1: NYSE FANG+ Index constituents’ year-to-date performance through 1.27.23. | Following massive declines in 2022, these stocks are a good example of a 2023 risk-on-pain trade. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3e461ac6-30e4-41bb-86ad-abd35ea9f60d/s-and-p-500.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Speaking Words of Wisdom: The Beatles and The Who - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500. | While broader domestic equity indices continue to act well (NYSE, Value Line, Russell 3000), in terms of this predominately technology-driven index, it is back to where it began in December 2022, almost 8 weeks ago. And the spring/summer of 2022, many months ago. Nowhere.curs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/083747d6-7d45-48b8-ba2f-e402252a7789/djia-and-tran.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Speaking Words of Wisdom: The Beatles and The Who - Make it stand out Figure 3: Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average. | Leader to laggard and now resistance. Red lines and upper price labels = resistance. Green lines and lower price labels = support. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/563e531b-188b-47ad-b2e5-90edc864f7aa/iwm.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Speaking Words of Wisdom: The Beatles and The Who - Make it stand out Figure 4: iShares Russell 2000 ETF – Small Cap proxy. | IWM continues to struggle with resistance in the $189-$190 area. A solid close above resistance could accelerate the trend higher as the Bears get squeezed. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/96da4438-87a7-4474-bea7-432f0f6833c3/us-dollar-index.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Speaking Words of Wisdom: The Beatles and The Who - Make it stand out Figure 5: U.S. Dollar Index. | Coming in front of the Fed’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday afternoon, given the U.S. Dollar Index’s close proximity to support and slowly improving upside momentum (top frame), within a downtrend, an upside pop may pressure stocks lower. Tactically, tighten up short-term (trading) stops/take short-term (trading) profits in part or in whole. https://dayhagan.com/research/replay-of-the-day-hagan-technical-analysis-january-24-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-03-02 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-pogo-stick monthly 0.5 2023-02-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/428d4a3f-22bc-42cc-a18b-7f90545151b8/s-and-p-500-equal-weight.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Pogo Stick - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500 Equal Weight vs. S&P 500 (capitalization weighted). | Internal improvement, as previously discussed in these reports, can be defined by a number of different measuring tools. In this case, the move in trend from lower left to upper right depicts breadth improvement—increasing upside participation with the Bulls still in control. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/27a45f27-4d92-4345-ac01-1fd3ca85de75/s-and-p-500.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Pogo Stick - Make it stand out Figure 2: S&P 500. | A move by the S&P 500 above 4050-4100+/- resistance (I think the odds favor it ultimately happens) would have me look towards the August peak of 4300+/- as the next directional guidepost. Please refer to resistance and support levels highlighted inside the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e28eb153-f1df-4afd-bb30-f560a4255f12/ishares-russell-2000-etf.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Pogo Stick - Make it stand out Figure 3: iShares Russell 2000 ETF – Small Cap proxy. | Approaching resistance (lower frame) and overbought readings (upper frame—please refer to comments inside the chart), but a solid close at 189 or above could accelerate the price trend higher and squeeze the Bears. Similarly, improving action by the Small versus Large relative trend is occurring. Please reach out for the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5739364e-2e4c-4f3a-bd34-0f54576cca75/1-year-us-treasury-yield-plus-other-maturities.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Pogo Stick - Make it stand out Figure 4: Select U.S. Treasury Yields (Doesn’t include all maturities due to spacing. Please reach out for charts of other maturities.) | 200-day MA support for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (3.49%), not shown below, is 3.28%. A move below support at 3.43-3.42% (previous reaction lows) opens up a test of the 200-day MA. I think the odds favor support breaking and believe this chart lends credence to Mr. Roque’s analysis. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-the-grind-is-real monthly 0.5 2023-03-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/203a169e-3003-4c80-92a0-488776160c8d/s-and-p-500.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Grind Is Real - Make it stand out Figure 1: S&P 500. | Resistance = 3966 (gap), 4050 to 4100+/- and 4300+/- (August peak). Support = 3764, 3700+/-, and 3550+/-. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c741cb4-1351-487a-9552-6321ea2cf006/ishares-russell-2000-etf.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Grind Is Real - Make it stand out Figure 2: iShares Russell 2000 ETF – Small Cap proxy. | Let’s keep it simple.. Please refer to the verbiage inside the chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fa47f2b0-421a-47cd-b943-b52a25c32989/nasdaq.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Grind Is Real - Make it stand out Figure 3: NASDAQ. |The Grind is readily visible—“Bounce now or forever hold your peace.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/93a3b11c-cccd-4de8-a25e-307a14f08705/us-dollar-index.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: The Grind Is Real - Make it stand out Figure 4: U.S. Dollar Index with 50-day MA (red) close to crossing below 200-day MA (blue). |Given the importance this plays in directional moves of several asset classes, important support levels are being violated. Again, I say, “Bounce now or forever hold your peace.” https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-strategy-update-january-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-03-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/36291667-a8ae-42f5-934b-5a45df36a722/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-chart-2023.01.04.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector Catastrophic Stop Sell Model image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/2267f1ab-9bb1-4012-8427-bfa47f6dd970/pessimistic-short-term-sentiment-favors-equity-exposure-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Pessimistic Short-Term Sentiment: Favors Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f514f233-4611-41c3-84e5-00f483e74c29/global-pmi-vs-central-bank-breadth-2023.12.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global PMI vs. Central Bank Breadth https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f7bf8e29-f093-41cd-b3e3-e707882a3d5a/citigroup-economic-surprise-index-for-swiss-franc-2023.01.03.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the Swiss Franc https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4d8ae4af-2ecd-4c14-83c9-88f1230a6df4/france-earnings-growth-2022.12.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: France Earnings Growth https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e5fb0823-f494-4d03-a92c-73a7f6d6d81a/msci-china-2023.01.03.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: MSCI China https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/15c986a2-8760-45f1-8ad6-abdc6841e20c/japan-inflation-swaps-trends-lower-indicating-softening-economy-2023.01.03.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Japan Inflation Swaps Trending Lower Indicating a Softening Economy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/fcdf74a5-a63d-448e-be2e-39185602c187/canada-markit-manufacturing-pmi-2022.12.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d142d1d7-8c2b-4611-b66f-fe490ff313e5/germany-zew-index-macroexonomic-expectations-2022.12.31.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Germany ZEW Index of Macroeconomic Expectations https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/305df789-36c0-4ace-a796-a0145dabd3c1/citigroup-economic-surprise-index-for-new-zealand-2023.01.04.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® International Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 10: Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the New Zealand Dollar https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-strategy-update-january-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-06-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/253df6da-1b22-47f3-a87d-5a701a7c6cba/smart-sector-catastrophic-stop-sell-model-chart-2023.01.04.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update January 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Catastrophic Stop Sell Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d4e654db-fa91-4961-aeb1-78b02d3092b3/pessimistic-short-term-sentiment-favors-equity-exposure-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Pessimistic Short-Term Sentiment: Favors Equity Exposure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/31411cac-6fe8-4eb4-b81f-f2b3ec92b545/stock-bond-rolling-correlation-2022.12.13.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Stock/Bond Rolling Correlation https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/b6927a6a-0a0f-4e8d-8a3d-3a9bd4f51217/sp500-health-care-relative-price-trend-improving-bullish-for-the-sector-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: S&P 500 Health Care Relative Price Tend Improving: Bullish for the Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/12c60272-afec-40b9-8b3e-3efea8c0852f/waning-momentum-in-crude-oil-prices-is-bearish-for-the-energy-sector-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Waning Momentum in Crude Oil Prices is Bearish for the Energy Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e992efc0-077f-4850-b501-5b8bb8c10536/weakening-us-dollar-is-bearish-for-the-financials-sector-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weakening U.S. Dollar is Bearish for the Financials Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/f74878f2-9cb3-4b1e-9b5a-6f69ba6a6a72/changing-trend-in-crude-oil-futures-prices-is-bullish-for-the-utilities-sector-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: Changing Trend in Crude Oil Futures Prices is Bullish for the Utilities Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/128bb413-39ea-4314-a877-4423fbd774ef/weaker-internet-to-retail-sales-ratio-is-bearish-for-communications-sector-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: Weaker Internet to Retail Sales Ratio is Bearish for the Communications Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/12403db7-b23b-4e27-84d7-97d4ff146e3b/deteriorating-relative-strenth-trends-is-bearish-consumer-discretionary-sector-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Deteriorating Relative Strength Trends is Bearish for the Consumer Discretionary Sector. https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy-monthly-update-january-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-03-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/69f83c80-ce63-48d5-9c4d-7163f17d5b82/smart-sector-fixed-income-risk-management-model-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2023 Figure 1: Smart Sector® Fixed Income Risk Management Model https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/cb516c6b-00d3-4abd-9310-06cb59770e26/short-term-stock-market-sentiment-reached-pessimistic-levels-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 2: Short-Term Stock Market Sentiment Reached Pessimistic Levels https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/500502a5-b7d7-4754-8701-57dfc12b0ee3/global-central-bank-interest-rate-daily-2023.01.03.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 3: Global Central Bank Interest Rate (Daily) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/ad4a7b13-6be3-4457-996b-7246b6fe1777/us-long-term-treasury-technical-cross-bullish-for-the-sector-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 4: U.S. Long Term Treasury Technical Cross Bullish for the Sector https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d8130c4a-a97a-4ea5-b755-b43d883ee779/lower-10-year-yield-is-bullish-for-us-mortgage-backed-securities-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 5: Lower 10-Year Yield is Bullish for U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/a4807357-9724-4fae-8c00-73c4a95b8d69/emerging-market-bonds-short-term-trend-absolute-returns-bearish-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 6: Emerging Market Bonds Short-Term Trend in Absolute Returns is Bearish https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8d9626b6-a47d-476a-9d4f-47f97df6099d/us-high-yield-bonds-short-term-absolute-return-trend-bearish-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 7: U.S. High Yield Bonds Short-Term Absolute Return Trend is Bearish https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6be814b5-89eb-4c38-898b-a9f36a270768/us-floating-rate-notes-improving-relative-strength-bullish-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 8: U.S. Floating Rate Notes Improving Relative Strength is Bullish https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9285c65d-579c-4a31-9a8b-708de78443aa/widening-option-adjusted-spreads-bearish-us-investment-grade-corporate-bonds-2022.12.30.JPG Research - Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® Fixed Income Strategy Update January 2023 - Make it stand out Figure 9: Widening Option-Adjusted Spreads is Bearish for U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy-update-january-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-06-15 https://dayhagan.com/research/day-hagan-tech-talk-mercifully-2022-ands-and-2023-begins monthly 0.5 2023-03-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/72d6c5d4-aae3-44b5-82e8-67ec256815d4/2022-asset-class-performance-s%26pGSCI.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Mercifully, 2022 Ends And 2023 Begins - Make it stand out Figure 1: 2022 Asset Class Performance – Commodities: GSCI Commodity Index, +8.71% (red); Currencies: U.S. Dollar, +8.03% (blue); Cash: SGOV, +1.58% (green); Domestic Equities: SPX, -19.44% (pink); Fixed Income: TLT, -31.23% (teal), 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond -22.03%, not shown. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/d9418526-af68-4025-b67f-5830d633731c/2022-capitalization-size-performance-s%26p400.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Mercifully, 2022 Ends And 2023 Begins - Make it stand out Figure 2: 2022 Capitalization Size Performance (domestic) – Mid-Cap: S&P 400 Mid-Cap, -14.48% (red); Large Cap: S&P 500, -19.44% (blue); Small Cap proxy: IWM, -20.48% (green); Microcap proxy: IWC, ‑21.93% (pink). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/6a75e56c-407f-433b-a738-38e7ca344cb7/2022-us-sector-performance-xle.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Mercifully, 2022 Ends And 2023 Begins - Make it stand out Figure 3: 2022 S&P Macro Sectors Performance – The January 2022 Smart Sector Strategy update showed that the NDR Sector Allocation Model overweighted Energy. The model ended 2022 in the same fashion. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/53fc6990-2e86-40db-81f8-d62d652e3c4d/2022-days-spx-traded-down-at-least-one-percent.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Mercifully, 2022 Ends And 2023 Begins - Make it stand out Figure 4: 2022 Volatility (source: Goldman) – This clearly affected investor and trader sentiment as 2022 wore on. It was also apparent in how Large Cap Growth/Technology/FANG stocks traded—see Figure 5. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/aeab478a-cfe8-429b-80df-20544c6c8e38/2022-nyse-fang-aapl-good-company-bad-stock.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Mercifully, 2022 Ends And 2023 Begins - Make it stand out Figure 5: 2022 NYSE FANG+ Index Performance (components): No wonder Growth (especially Large Cap growth) underperformed Value, and domestic equal-weighted equity market proxies outperformed their cap/price-weighted indices. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1fa579d3-223a-4ded-8805-44064b8545d8/aapl-vs-spx.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Mercifully, 2022 Ends And 2023 Begins - Make it stand out Figure 6: Weekly relative strength chart of AAPL versus SPX. Long-term price support: 200-week MA ~$112, not shown here. Please reach out for the price chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4543b3c2-586a-4a0a-b342-813e14f9871b/aapl-relative-market-cap-weight-%25-in-spx.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Mercifully, 2022 Ends And 2023 Begins - Make it stand out Figure 7: “At the end of the game, the king and the pawn go back in the same box." ~Italian proverb. Long-term price support: 200-week MA ~$112, not shown. Please reach out for the price chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/8c6b6185-e494-460e-97a6-e6e36f86f9b5/us-dollar-index.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Mercifully, 2022 Ends And 2023 Begins - Make it stand out Figure 8: U.S. Dollar Index (daily with declining 50-day MA) – A breakdown below 103+/- wouldn’t surprise me, and would likely be received well (bullishly) by domestic equities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9fe85df2-98c0-4799-b3bd-a191054387e5/emerging-vs-us.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Mercifully, 2022 Ends And 2023 Begins - Make it stand out Figure 9: Emerging vs. U.S. (relative strength analysis): From a trend perspective, the U.S. is still leading. From a mean reversion perspective, an attractive risk-to-reward opportunity exists for the patient investor/disciplined trader who will manage risk (change opinion) if this ratio sets a new reaction low. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/11533184-33b7-4fee-8266-da462aac5686/spx.PNG Research - Day Hagan Tech Talk: Mercifully, 2022 Ends And 2023 Begins - Make it stand out Figure 10: S&P 500 – Rangebound (neutral) from all perspectives. Play the range accordingly. If push comes to shove, the upside is given a try (money is put to work) as performance measures start anew. https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Tech+Talk monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Smart+Sector+Series monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Webinar monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Global+Balanced monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Catastrophic+Stop monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Smart+Sector monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Research monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Smart+Value monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Fixed+Income monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Global+Allocation monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Core+Equity monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Online+Event monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Video monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/NDR+Catastrophic+Stop monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Technical+Analysis monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Market+Update monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/NDR monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Market+Outlook monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/International monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/category/Strategy+Update monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/research/tag/Research monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/team daily 0.75 2025-03-14 https://dayhagan.com/team/arthur-s-day monthly 0.5 2025-01-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1737483998116-4ZN1AG7E2J2MB9PG7ZRQ/ArtDaysquare.jpg Day Hagan Team - Arthur S. Day - Make it stand out Arthur S. Day. Partner, Co-Founder, Senior Portfolio Manager of Day Hagan Asset Management in Sarasota, FL. https://dayhagan.com/team/donald-l-hagan-cfa monthly 0.5 2025-03-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1737484288309-T2G6Z6PXEP3VIYRFDR2N/DonHagansquare.jpg Day Hagan Team - Donald L. Hagan, CFA® - Make it stand out Donald L. Hagan, CFA®, Partner, Co-Founder, and Chief Investment Strategist of Day Hagan Asset Management in Sarasota, FL. https://dayhagan.com/team/lnda-s-brown monthly 0.5 2025-01-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1737484359510-X6KQGPLK8DOJUHY0NFJ9/LindaBrownsquare.jpg Day Hagan Team - Linda S. Brown - Make it stand out Linda S. Brown, Partner, Co-Founder, CCO, and Director of Operations of Day Hagan Asset Management in Sarasota, FL. https://dayhagan.com/team/regan-s-teague-cfa-cfp monthly 0.5 2025-02-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1737484449048-38H22SGBK1B9ZL3P2C4H/ReganTeaguesquare.jpg Day Hagan Team - Regan S. Teague, CFA®, CFP® - Make it stand out Regan S. Teague, CFA®, CFP®, Portfolio Manager and Lead Trader at Day Hagan Asset Management in Sarasota, FL. https://dayhagan.com/team/natalie-brown monthly 0.5 2025-01-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1737484593788-1AAPJKXI1UFSTFIU1B87/NatalieBrownsquare.jpg Day Hagan Team - Natalie Brown, CFP® - Make it stand out Natalie Brown, CFP®, Director of Client Services at Day Hagan Asset Management in Sarasota, FL. https://dayhagan.com/team/tyler-hagan monthly 0.5 2025-01-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1737484711101-4ZM74NIQ3VVRJIQDYYBI/TylerHagensquarejpg.jpg Day Hagan Team - Tyler Hagan - Make it stand out Tyler Hagan, Director of Client Relations at Day Hagan Asset Management in Sarasota, FL. https://dayhagan.com/team/lee-towle monthly 0.5 2025-01-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1737484768249-D41QM69BEV262PX81DNT/LeeTowlesquare.jpg Day Hagan Team - Lee Towle - Make it stand out Lee Towle, Marketing Director at Day Hagan Asset Management in Sarasota, FL. https://dayhagan.com/team/joanne-j-amrhein monthly 0.5 2025-01-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1737993578255-PHC01OGH1LTM1YUEJVVX/JoanneAmrheinsquare.jpg Day Hagan Team - Joanne J. Amrhein - Make it stand out Joanne J. Amrhein, Client Service Associate, at Day Hagan Asset Management in Sarasota, FL. https://dayhagan.com/team/janice-rodgers monthly 0.5 2025-01-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1737751408949-2RKNAPM9BL2S1JLZZPOM/JaniceRodgerssquare.jpg Day Hagan Team - Janice C. Rodgers - Make it stand out Joanne J. Amrhein, Client Service Associate, at Day Hagan Asset Management in Sarasota, FL. https://dayhagan.com/team/category/Day+Hagan+Team monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/team/category/Relationship+Team monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/team/category/Investment+Committee monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/team/category/Smart+Sector monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/team/category/Global+Tactical+Allocation monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/team/category/Smart+Value monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/team/category/Partner monthly 0.5 https://dayhagan.com/home daily 1.0 2025-11-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/642fb553-3b06-4f6e-9ee8-58ed3d431978/abstract-technology-big-data-background-concept-AdobeStock_300257078.jpeg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/01d314e1-d345-488d-843f-e1c013902540/earth-view-from-space-16.9-ratio-web.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/18c793df-6b1e-4f28-bea1-16873291ddde/day-hagan-defined-outcome-1200x675px.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/c14edb05-e994-48e0-b3f2-1606553be235/global-communication-AdobeStock_54807712-1200x675px-01.png https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1f63b780-f65c-45a9-809b-c0b8dc46d1ce/day-hagan-global-asset-allocation-1200x675px.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/1fa24140-af6e-4d7f-aa39-400f08778ca0/bull-bear-digital-blue-16.9-ratio-web.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/e1ba88d7-d037-4690-b760-b5635b09aaa8/day-hagan-smart-value-bull-bear-16.9-ratio.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/87093d1c-5b4c-498f-a738-3a9aba99047f/bull-bear-abstract-day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-1200x675px-01.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/75ccd39e-cc39-406b-8110-4aee4eccca6d/day-hagan-core-equity-strategy-1200x675px.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/9a31340b-c4f5-487b-897f-732716eca8e2/day-hagan-proprietary-models-puzzl https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/357fbca2-8317-41ec-b431-7bf37c80b1cb/finance-key-16.9-ratio-web.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/0d2a19a6-2254-41f2-a8db-6cef14290fbb/paper_coffee_2.52x425in.jpg https://dayhagan.com/about daily 0.75 2025-08-12 https://dayhagan.com/day-hagan-team daily 0.75 2025-12-17 https://dayhagan.com/contact daily 0.75 2025-05-30 https://dayhagan.com/online-privacy-policy daily 0.75 2025-05-12 https://dayhagan.com/disclosures daily 0.75 2025-11-10 https://dayhagan.com/cookies-policy daily 0.75 2025-05-12 https://dayhagan.com/privacy-policy daily 0.75 2023-02-06 https://dayhagan.com/faq-and-troubleshooting-email daily 0.75 2023-03-20 https://dayhagan.com/subscribe daily 0.75 2025-12-17 https://dayhagan.com/day-hagan-institutional-services daily 0.75 2025-03-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c0aa5a4-ca9e-4549-92f3-4b64a662b74d/bull-bear-digital-blue-1024x768px-flat-01.png https://dayhagan.com/day-hagan-smart-sector-with-catastrophic-stop daily 0.75 2025-12-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5aed6f8f-5747-4c27-8159-69a956d29dc9/bull-bear-digital-blue-2500x625px-01.jpg https://dayhagan.com/day-hagan-global-tactical-allocation-strategy daily 0.75 2023-03-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/63088aee-671d-464c-8558-f2d92dd98b2b/day-hagan-global-tactical-allocation-strategy-2500x625px.jpg https://dayhagan.com/day-hagan-smart-sector-balanced-portfolios daily 0.75 2025-05-30 https://dayhagan.com/day-hagan-smart-value-strategy daily 0.75 2025-12-17 https://dayhagan.com/day-hagan-smart-sector-webinar-replay daily 0.75 2025-09-18 https://dayhagan.com/day-hagan-smart-sector-fixed-income-strategy daily 0.75 2025-12-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/4df3e8d7-933e-40b5-9cfe-0fb9c3bb9b45/bull-bear-abstract-day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-fixed-income-2500x650px.jpg https://dayhagan.com/day-hagan-smart-sector-international-strategy daily 0.75 2025-12-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/3bacdbc3-5e1f-4ca1-8604-a6f44adb47f6/day-hagan-ned-davis-research-smart-sector-international-webpage-topper-1200x400px-01.jpg https://dayhagan.com/day-hagan-global-asset-allocation-strategy daily 0.75 2025-12-17 https://dayhagan.com/day-hagan-core-equity-strategy daily 0.75 2025-12-17 https://dayhagan.com/day-hagan-defined-outcome-strategy daily 0.75 2025-12-17 https://dayhagan.com/day-hagan-smas daily 0.75 2025-03-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c0aa5a4-ca9e-4549-92f3-4b64a662b74d/bull-bear-digital-blue-1024x768px-flat-01.png https://dayhagan.com/advisor-center daily 0.75 2024-05-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c0aa5a4-ca9e-4549-92f3-4b64a662b74d/bull-bear-digital-blue-1024x768px-flat-01.png https://dayhagan.com/importance-of-etfs-in-modern-investment-portfolios daily 0.75 2023-12-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c0aa5a4-ca9e-4549-92f3-4b64a662b74d/bull-bear-digital-blue-1024x768px-flat-01.png https://dayhagan.com/why-are-etfs-popular daily 0.75 2023-12-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c0aa5a4-ca9e-4549-92f3-4b64a662b74d/bull-bear-digital-blue-1024x768px-flat-01.png https://dayhagan.com/benefits-of-etfs daily 0.75 2023-12-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c0aa5a4-ca9e-4549-92f3-4b64a662b74d/bull-bear-digital-blue-1024x768px-flat-01.png https://dayhagan.com/different-types-of-etfs daily 0.75 2023-12-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c0aa5a4-ca9e-4549-92f3-4b64a662b74d/bull-bear-digital-blue-1024x768px-flat-01.png https://dayhagan.com/difference-between-etfs-and-mutual-funds daily 0.75 2023-12-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c0aa5a4-ca9e-4549-92f3-4b64a662b74d/bull-bear-digital-blue-1024x768px-flat-01.png https://dayhagan.com/myths-about-etfs daily 0.75 2023-12-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c0aa5a4-ca9e-4549-92f3-4b64a662b74d/bull-bear-digital-blue-1024x768px-flat-01.png https://dayhagan.com/risks-with-etfs daily 0.75 2023-12-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c0aa5a4-ca9e-4549-92f3-4b64a662b74d/bull-bear-digital-blue-1024x768px-flat-01.png https://dayhagan.com/how-to-incorporate-etfs-into-client-portfolios daily 0.75 2023-12-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/638f9c4057ff814a05b50ddd/5c0aa5a4-ca9e-4549-92f3-4b64a662b74d/bull-bear-digital-blue-1024x768px-flat-01.png https://dayhagan.com/enhance-your-portfolio-process-with-the-day-hagan-smart-sector-series daily 0.75 2024-10-17 https://dayhagan.com/social-media-guidelines daily 0.75 2025-04-01 https://dayhagan.com/terms-of-use daily 0.75 2025-05-12