DAY HAGAN TECH TALK: JUNE 25, 2019

 

Bottom Line: International and emerging markets are benefiting from a U.S. Dollar Index breakdown. While our models prefer domestic markets (they update 7/1/19), when analyzing the Pring Global Advance-Decline Line, the absolute and relative price trends of various international and emerging markets have stabilized and/or strengthened. On pullbacks of between 1% and 5%, this situation spells “opportunity.”

U.S. Dollar Index (weekly) with various support levels (green dashed line) and long-term uptrend line (blue line).
MSCI World (ex USA) Index with rising 150-DMA.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index vs. S&P 500 (U.S.). The black relive strength line has come down to support - an area that produced a strong yet short period of out performance last fall. It looks to be happening again.

Chart of Interest: Broadly speaking, the commodities market are also benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar. As highlighted in our webinar early last week (prior to the Fed announcement and subsequent decline by the U.S. Dollar Index and interest rates), Gold is emerging out of a lengthy trading range pattern and outperforming the Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index. As stated by a few articles I read, “adding gold to the portfolio mix as a method to balance risk and volatility makes sense, and you should “use weakness opportunistically” while managing downside risk!

Gold Weekly Log Chart. Initial target, based on the depth of the base, equates to $1600+/-

UPCOMING EVENTS

Day Hagan Market Update Webinar with Donald Hagan, CFA, July 10, 2019 @ 4:15 PM EST

Day Hagan Technical Analysis Webinar with Art Huprich, CMT, July 16, 2019 @ 4:15 PM EST

Art Huprich, CMT
Chief Market Technician
Day Hagan Asset Management

— Written intraday 06.24.2019. Chart sources: StockCharts.   

PDF Copy of Article: Day Hagan Tech Talk June 25, 2019 (PDF)

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